Every summer at this time, agents go to the media, or have their friends do it, and talk about how much in demand a player is. Every agent wants it in the media that every team wants his guy. There is always far more smoke than fire. The key is seperating one from the other. AGents are a good source of information. There are quite a few that are straightup, just looking for a good deal for their guys. They will share information with you about their guys, and that in turn gives a good feel about what each team may or may not do. AFter making my calls and donnie making his calls to friends and family around the league, we pretty much knew that the only team with a real interest in steve was Phoenix. The Suns were out there telling everyone they were going after Kobe Bryant, but I just couldnt see that happening. Mr Colangelo had gone through alot with his team a few years ago and I couldnt see him dealing with the off court uncertainty attached to Kobe. So I needed to try to figure out what the Suns might offer.
The Suns had just taken on new owners, so I didnt know if they came in flush with cash, or would be conservative. So that didnt help me. What I felt strongly about is that the Suns would want to add more than one player with their cap room. They were doing everything possible to maximize their cap space available, beyond what would be considered a max out amount, so that cemented that perspective. Looking at their roster, they probably were looking for a center to go along with their interest in Steve.
To gain the most flexibility with that cap room, after signing steve, they would need to retain more cap space than the midlevel exception. The big problem is that although teams are out there saying how much cap room they have, they dont really know how much cap room they have. Theleague doesnt give us the cap number until we can start signing free agents.
Worse still, we cant even really calculate or give a good guess on what the cap is. Roughly speaking the cap is League Revenues times .48, divided by 29. League Revenues have very specific inclusions and exclusions, and also include an 8 pct fluff factor that has to be adjusted each year. So we can guess the cap, but we dont know the cap. What we do know is salaries that each team is paying.
So I tried to figure out what the Suns could offer Steve. I knew that with salaries and cap hold, they had just under 30mm committed for the year. So if the cap would come in at a very generous 45mm dollars, they would have 15.5mm dollars in cap. For every dollar the cap came in less, their cap room would be reduced. We also knew that the mid level exception would be around 5mm dollars (its based on average salaries, not revenues). So if they wanted to sign a 2nd player other than steve, and they wanted to be able to offer more than the midlevel of 5mm, that would use at least 5.1mm in cap room. So best case, the suns would be able to offer 10.4mm to steve in the first year.
Thats is the best case. The cap would have to come in at the high end, and they would have to be able to sign the player they want, at pennies over the midlevel exception (kind of what seattle did to us with Calvin Booth). I then guessed, and this was completely a guess, that the Suns would want some cushion to sign the 2nd player and to protect themselves in case the cap came in lower than expected. So I guessed they would reserve 6mm dollars to get the 2nd player they wanted, and they would put the cap estimate at 44mm. That would reduce the dollars available to 44mm cap minus 35.5 committed (current salaries, 1 cap hold and 6mm for their 2nd player). That would mean a first year number of 8.5mm dollars.[/B]
