D'backs Offseason Plans

[overseascardfan]

Since our season is over I thought now would be a good time to discuss what we need to do to get us into the playoffs next season.

Mark Grace stated the obvious a couple of games ago when he said that with the core of young players we have, we are a long ball threat and a couple of SP's away from contending.

With that said, here's my wish list for this offseason:

Sign 2 top end SP's. My preference would be Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito. I think we will end up with Schmidt and Mark Mulder since both live in the valley. Ted Lilly would be a nice addition.

A long ball threat. Not much out there after Carlos Lee unless Aramis Ramirez opts out of his contract. Problem is only Lee makes sense because he plays LF and if we lose Byrnes, Young will step into CF and Q in right. Ramirez plays 3B, so unless we're considering trading Tracy there's nowhere for him to play.

Trade Estrada and anyone else who does not want to be here. I'm a firm believer in team chemistry and removing cancers that affect it. Getting a SP or another C for him would be great in my opinion, prospects would be nice if we couldget a backup C to Montero and Snyder.

Finally what everyone wants to hear: replace Melvin. There are managers like Girardi, Pinella, etc. that I feel would be an upgrade over Melvin.

 

[boondockdrunk]

I would love to pick up Carlos Lee (while an average fielder, he has a big bat) and Ted Lilly.

While Lee would cost up to $10 million a year, I think that Lilly can be signed around $5 to $6 million. Jason Schmidt for around $8 million would be nice but he will want a long term contract and that might handcuff us.

One person that is interesting is Mark Mulder. At the beginning of this year I would have been all for signing him to a 5 to 6 year contract. On the other hand, now that he was injured throughout the year, that makes him more of a risk.

Barry Zito is an ace, there is no doubt about that. However, he gives up too many homeruns for me to think that he will be the same here as he is for the A's.

I know that I am going to be hammered for this, but what about Edgar Gonzalez? He has pitched pretty well since coming back up and can be a good #5 guy.

With that said, trade Estrada for either a good SP or relief help (add in a prospect if you have to). You can never have too much pitching.

 

[Espo]

I agree with your take on Lee. I think he would be perfect in left and split Byrnes and Young in center. Lee brings credibility and pop to an offense which has lacked both this year.
I think that some combination of Schmidt, Lilly and Mulder is what dbacks will wind up with. There is no way Zito comes here. He is New York bound, Yanks or Mets, and that is almost signed sealed and delivered. Schmidt worries me for the same reasons as listed above. He probably will want a longer deal. I would be willing to pay a little more per year for him for a two or three year deal than a five year deal where the dbacks pay a little less.
As for Edgar, He doesn't have the mental make up to last through a full season in the bigs as a solid number five guy. I have had the "pleasure" of watching him the past two season with the Sidewinders and he has a tendency to let any hit get to him and blame his teamates for hits that they probably shouldn't have or couldn't have gotten too.
Also the closers role has to be addressed. Hopefully they can pick up a guy on the Free agency market with a lot of upside on the cheap. Maybe a Gagne if he is let go by the Dodgers. The theme for this offseason should be low risk high reward.

 

[green machine]

I'm not sold on Lee, would rather have Soriano. Lee just seems like a guy who will get payed a ton, not offer alot on D, and start to slow down. Just a feeling.

Lilly is a guy that will just be overpaid because he's a decent lefty..not sure I want him here.

Schmidt would be great, for the right price Mulder too.

 

[Espo]

I'm not sold on Lee, would rather have Soriano. Lee just seems like a guy who will get payed a ton, not offer alot on D, and start to slow down. Just a feeling.

Lilly is a guy that will just be overpaid because he's a decent lefty..not sure I want him here.

Schmidt would be great, for the right price Mulder too.

If Lee's defense worries you then why the heck would you want Soriano. Soriano has one year in the OF and probably wants to play 2B anyways. Plus Soriano's speed would probably be wasted here due to the new philosophy. He won't be a 40 40 guy here.
Plus any decent pitching is going to get overpaid. That's the name of the game. I just hope Byrnes is smarter at picking which pitchers to spend the money on. It's not how much you spend but how wisely you spend.

 

[green machine]

If Lee's defense worries you then why the heck would you want Soriano. Soriano has one year in the OF and probably wants to play 2B anyways. Plus Soriano's speed would probably be wasted here due to the new philosophy. He won't be a 40 40 guy here.
Plus any decent pitching is going to get overpaid. That's the name of the game. I just hope Byrnes is smarter at picking which pitchers to spend the money on. It's not how much you spend but how wisely you spend.

Agreed on the spending methods, the Dbacks just don't have the funds to throw money at every shiny new free agent like the Yankees do.

I'm more concerned with a rapid drop off from Lee then I am his defense, but either way I don't see the team going after an outfielder. The power is going to have to come from some of the prospects or maybe a trade for a 3rd baseman. Next year's OF is looking like Byrnes/Young/Quentin/Davanon...and that's not too bad.

 

[Diamondback Jay]

Sign 2 top end SP's. My preference would be Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito. I think we will end up with Schmidt and Mark Mulder since both live in the valley. Ted Lilly would be a nice addition.

I agree signing 2 top of the rotation guys is essential. I also agree that signing Mulder is something they should do. However, I'm not a fan of Schmidt. For some reason, I think some team's gonna overpay him based off past production, while totally ignoring his injury history. I'd truthfully rather see the Diamondbacks sign Mulder, trade for Jake Westbrook and spend the money they'd spend on Schmidt instead on other areas.

Anyhow, here's my ideal post-season..

1. Pitching, Pitching, Pitching

Brandon Webb's an excellent pitcher, however it's clear and obvious he can't do it alone. I think he's proven he can be the ace and carry a staff, but I also think bringing in someone like Mark Mulder would be ideal. I also as mentioned above would like to see Arizona get Jake Westbrook from Cleveland.

In my ideal post-season, I hope to see the rotation in 2007 looking like this

Webb
Mulder
Westbrook
Batista
Owings

2. BULLPEN HELP

I think this goes without saying. Unfortunately, in terms of quality closers, the cupboards are bare. This again may be a situation where Arizona's gotta dig in to the farm to make a trade for one. I know I'd love to see the Diamondbacks get one of the Dodger young arms (Brazelbon or Jonathan Broxton) to be the closer of the future, and I'm almost certain the Astros are gonna trade Brad Lidge. I also think Brian Fuentes is a free agent as well, so he could be an option.

Any of those three would be a drastic upgrade from what they have now. Whoever they get though, they've got to do something because the revolving door at closer isn't working.

3. As you said, a long ball threat.

I like Carlos Lee, and think he'd be a good pickup. I also like Alfonso Soriano, but I think he's going to ask for way too much, and seems hell bent on only playing 2B.

 

[Espo]

Agreed on the spending methods, the Dbacks just don't have the funds to throw money at every shiny new free agent like the Yankees do.

I'm more concerned with a rapid drop off from Lee then I am his defense, but either way I don't see the team going after an outfielder. The power is going to have to come from some of the prospects or maybe a trade for a 3rd baseman. Next year's OF is looking like Byrnes/Young/Quentin/Davanon...and that's not too bad.

I can understand the drop off and can see a concern there. I just don't see the prospects providing the power. They just didn't show it in the minors. I think all these guys are 20 to 30 homeruns max. I find it tough to believe they will give up on Tracy to find someone to play third and provide power. If they wanted that they would have kept Glaus and wouldn't have made that trade in the offseason. I think that the OF is the logical place to add someone for power on this team but I also think there is a very very good chance they don't add any power bat at all.

 

[green machine]

I can understand the drop off and can see a concern there. I just don't see the prospects providing the power. They just didn't show it in the minors. I think all these guys are 20 to 30 homeruns max. I find it tough to believe they will give up on Tracy to find someone to play third and provide power. If they wanted that they would have kept Glaus and wouldn't have made that trade in the offseason. I think that the OF is the logical place to add someone for power on this team but I also think there is a very very good chance they don't add any power bat at all.

If these prospects all give 20-30 HR's this year then I don't think the Dbacks will have much of a power problem. This year they have one guy who hit more then 20, and that's Byrnes who Melvin had leading off most of the year.

 

[Espo]

If these prospects all give 20-30 HR's this year then I don't think the Dbacks will have much of a power problem. This year they have one guy who hit more then 20, and that's Byrnes who Melvin had leading off most of the year.

I don't think they all will give those numbers. I am saying that for their careers I don't think they will top 20 to 30 homers a season. Chris Young still needs to learn how to hit lefties and breaking balls before he will hit that many. Drew has a chance and Quentin needs to learn more patience at the plate to do it.

 

[overseascardfan]

What about signing Aramis Ramirez (if he opts out) and trading Tracy, Estrada and a minor leaguer for Dontrelle Willis, plus I've seen some posts that don't include Livan Hernandez in the rotation, he's signed for 1 more year I believe so I figure he has a rotation spot unless he's traded. If we could get Willis we would only have to pay for 1 more pitcher instead of 2. I also like the idea of Westbrook but Cleveland's asking price is too high.

 

[Espo]

What about signing Aramis Ramirez (if he opts out) and trading Tracy, Estrada and a minor leaguer for Dontrelle Willis, plus I've seen some posts that don't include Livan Hernandez in the rotation, he's signed for 1 more year I believe so I figure he has a rotation spot unless he's traded. If we could get Willis we would only have to pay for 1 more pitcher instead of 2. I also like the idea of Westbrook but Cleveland's asking price is too high.

It's an interesting scenario. I wouldn't be against it but i think that Ramirez is going to comand top dollar. I just don't see the dbacks spending that much on him without a guarentee that they can move those guys. I also don't see them making that trade unless they know for a fact that they could sign Ramirez.

 

[Diamondback Jay]

What about signing Aramis Ramirez (if he opts out) and trading Tracy, Estrada and a minor leaguer for Dontrelle Willis

Intriguing, but I think that's quite the asking price for Willis, and I'm honestly not sure Florida's going to be trading him anyhow.

 

[boondockdrunk]

What about signing Aramis Ramirez (if he opts out) and trading Tracy, Estrada and a minor leaguer for Dontrelle Willis, plus I've seen some posts that don't include Livan Hernandez in the rotation, he's signed for 1 more year I believe so I figure he has a rotation spot unless he's traded. If we could get Willis we would only have to pay for 1 more pitcher instead of 2. I also like the idea of Westbrook but Cleveland's asking price is too high.

If you thought Tracy was bad defensively... just wait until you watch Ramirez play. He might be the absolute worst 3rd baseman in the MLB when fielding.

 

[boondockdrunk]

Some other pitchers we might take a look at are Gil Meche, Vicente Padilla, and Mark Buehrle.

Gil Meche looks to be a solid #4 starter so I don't think that we will sign him unless there is no one left.

Vicente Padilla might be a good #3 starter for our team and is relatively unknown by most people. He walks too many guys but with a Texas team that plays in a hitters park he still put up pretty decent numbers.

I can't see Buehrle doing well at all here. He gives up a ton of homeruns and doesn't strike out many people. Probably not a good choice.

The top 15 free agent starters are as follows(according to VORP):
1. Jason Schmidt
2. Barry Zito
3. Mike Mussina
4. Roger Clemens
5. Tom Glavine
6. Andy Pettitte
7. Miguel Batista
8. Jamie Moyer
9. Vicente Padilla
10. Greg Maddux
11. Woody Williams
12. Ted Lilly
13. Brad Radke
14. Jeff Suppan
15. Gil Meche

I would say Andy Pettitte would be a huge pick-up, but now that Grimsley named him I am not so sure.

 

[Lefty]

Why do you guys want Mulder? He is going to have surgery and probably won't be at full strength next year. He might come cheap but I want someone who will be able to contribute next year.

 

[boondockdrunk]

Our rotation for next year (as of now) looks like this:
1. Webb
2.
3. Hernandez
4.
5. Cruz/Engon/Edgon/Owings

Managment might feel content to sign one free agent pitcher and then resign Batista to a 1 or 2 year deal to be our fourth starter and then pick someone off the free agent market to be the #2 guy.

As far as the bullpen goes, there are a few guys out there who could really help us out:
Keith Foulke
Trever Miller
Jamie Walker
Alan Embree
Chad Bradford
that is just a list of a few who could help solidify our pen.

 

[dbUNIT16]

I think it's kinda rediculous to assume that we are going to add a big bat. The organization just got rid of the biggest bat we've ever had in favor a youth. The decision, while an easy one, is not well recieved by the casual fans who don't understand the business side. Either way the message is that the organization wants to give youth a chance. Signing a big name old bat will contradict that message that was just sent today. The organization does not want to look like hippocrites.

I would expect Drew to hit 20-25 HR in his first full year, and have a season similar to what Jackson had this year, perhaps a .300 average and more RBIs, but close to the same thing. I expect Jackson to step it up and be more consistant with 25-27 HR next year. Hudson had a good second half and could hit 20-22 HR next year. Tracy really had a down year, I don't think he is capable of doing as worse than he did this year, I expect him to rebound strong and hit close to 30HR. It is his chance to become the offensive leader of the club. I can see Quinten having a big power, low average year in his first full. He could easily hit 30+ HR but he might not bat above .250.

Overall I am excited for our young offensive players, and want to see what they can do in a full season. I think the above estimates are very achievable and would be a serious power upgrade from this year. More importantly is the fact that guys like Tracy, Jackson, and Drew are great hitters. They are great at going the other way. Quinten seems more of a straight power hitter and may struggle with his average over his career.
The starting pitching and the bullpen definately need to be addressed.

The bullpen and starting pitching obviously need to be addressed. I'd love to see a trade for Dontrell Willis, I think he would be an outstanding fit here. Overall, this year was a great help is the development of our young offensive players, and gave us an idea of what we have and need pitching wise. Spend our $$ on pitching! Go D-Backs!

 

[Lefty]

Here is a list of this year's free agents. I would not mind seeing Dye or Cameron.

http://www.mlb4u.com/freeagency.php

 

[green machine]

Here is a list of this year's free agents. I would not mind seeing Dye or Cameron.

http://www.mlb4u.com/freeagency.php

At the expense of one of our other OF's like Young or Quentin playing, and even Byrnes, I would mind seeing them. The team has guys for the OF, and a couple more prospects in the system. I have a hard time seeing them spend big money on a long term deal for an OF free agent.

 

[Nasser22]

First I say that they should go after a pitcher for the bullpen. I like our bullpen guys but they have been inconsistent. I think a few will turn out to be great but a few will fade away so we need depth here. They should go after a lefthander or a good right handed pitcher. Someone they can rely on.

I love Tracy and would love him to stay, but if they have to they can go ahead and put him in a trade for a power bat or a pitcher. I think if he has another guy to be the home run hitter then he will go back to doing as well as he did in his 2nd season. I think he would be decent defensively at a couple positions but there just isn't room for him in the line-up unfortunatly. I would not like to lose Byrnes but hey, they shouldn't be in a rush to give Young playing time. The 4 outfielders could all split time and we can get a much-needed power bat in Carlos Lee and keep Tracy.

I honestly don't really like any of the pitchers available. Schmidt is too old, Zito allows too many home runs, the rest are also old, Lily throws some gems and then really sucks in some other games. What they could do is try to trade Tracy and/or Byrnes with a prospect and try to get another ace which is what I think we need. Then they can spend the rest of their money on another 3rd baseman if there is a good one one available.


Rotation should be:
Webb
FA
Hernandez
Batista
Gonzalez/Gonzalez/Cruz/Vargas/Nippert(whoever they decide on)

If they can get an ace who can pitch a lot of innings and they have Hernandez and Batista who should be decent then there won't be so much pressure put on the bullpen. The relievers pitched way too much this year.

 

[Lefty]

At the expense of one of our other OF's like Young or Quentin playing, and even Byrnes, I would mind seeing them. The team has guys for the OF, and a couple more prospects in the system. I have a hard time seeing them spend big money on a long term deal for an OF free agent.

You are contadicting yourself. You said you would not mind Soriano. He strikes out too much and no way would they play him at second, he makes too many errors.

Also, I hope the Diamondbacks don't look at Schmidt, the guy's better days are behind him and he won't come cheap. Look for a younger guy.

 

[Nasser22]

Well I would love Soriano since he did so well in such a big pitchers park and he'd be coming to Chase Field, but yeah he is contradicting himself. I would take some of those outfielders that are available because with them this team could be pretty good and Young and Quentin aren't ready. And they would be better than Byrnes(even though he's awesome) and a guy like Byrnes would be good in a trade for a good pitcher.

 

[green machine]

You are contadicting yourself. You said you would not mind Soriano. He strikes out too much and no way would they play him at second, he makes too many errors.

Also, I hope the Diamondbacks don't look at Schmidt, the guy's better days are behind him and he won't come cheap. Look for a younger guy.

Soriano is the one guy I'd bench Brynes for. He's young and has speed and power.

Not sure how I'm contradicting myself there...just saying that I'm not a fan of Lee, Cameron, or Dye in that spot.

 

[AZZenny]

Quentin is 100% ready, and has been for a year. He's already the best RF we've had, and he'll cost less than 1/10th what Dye would cost.

Young, maybe not quite ready, but probably close enough.

You guys are sipping koolaid AWFULLY early for 2007 -- Be realistic, without a major infusion of genuine starting pitching, (and a new Manager) this team isn't going to win a pennant next year, big bat or not -- better the young guys play together all year and be ready to take off in 2008.

I think true 'big bats' are about as common as good 7-plus foot Center. This team is being built for speed and OBP, and we have a couple young bats that should mature into significant power -- Young and Quentin, and perhaps Montero.


Unless we get a real good upgrade:

Webb
Hernandez
Gonzalez
Owings?
Vargas or maybe Nippert