Tell me the first 15 picks and I will.
1. Miami Dolphins: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
The Dolphins aren’t in as bad shape as their 1-15 record would indicate. Parcells and company have made the commitment to getting younger and improving in the trenches. Jason Taylor is still an impact player and if Joey Porter can stay healthy they have two players who have the ability to change the game. However, Taylor doesn’t have many years left and Porter is going to have a lot of problems staying healthy. Long is a high motor player who gives a 100% no matter what the situation and he fits the mold of what a Parcell’s guy actually is. He can play in either the 3-4 or 4-3 and is the most polished defensive prospect in the draft.
2. St. Louis Rams: Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
The Rams have a difficult choice to make at #2. Jake Long would be a fine pick, since Orlando Pace is getting older and Alex Barron has been a penalty machine. Glenn Dorsey would move last year’s first rounder, Adam Carriker, outside to end. Ultimately, Gholston would be the best choice because St. Louis desperately seeks an edge pass rusher. The team often uses a 3-4 base on passing downs, and Gholston would play end in the 4-3, but should have little trouble picking his hand up and switching to linebacker when the situation calls for it. This will be an interesting selection to monitor and could very easily be Chris Long if he doesn’t end up in Miami.
3. Atlanta Falcons: Jake Long, OT, Michigan
The Falcons have a lot of work to do and building in the trenches is their main concern. The Falcons have a lot of selections on the first three rounds but finding a franchise left tackle is one of the most challenging obstacles for teams. Long will anchor the Falcons offensive line for the next decade. For those of you who think Matt Ryan is the selection the Falcons do the right thing and don’t select him this early. Ryan had shown too many inconsistencies to be a top 3 pick and the Falcons have some better options in Round 2 at quarterback. Long is the pick and a very smart choice at #3 overall.
4. Oakland Raiders: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Oakland is most likely hoping that one of the Longs or Vernon Gholston is available when they are on the clock. Here, that is not the case. I still don’t think Darren McFadden is the pick. Al Davis may find it difficult to pass on him, but the Raiders already have Justin Fargas, Michael Bush, and Dominic Rhodes (and LaMont Jordan, but he’ll be let go at some point in the offseason). Right now, Derrick Burgess and Jay Richardson are the only notable holdovers at DE. Kalimba Edwards has always had potential, but Oakland can’t rely on him for anything more than depth. This pick could be traded to someone that wants McFadden. This would allow the Raiders to move down and take Sedrick Ellis, Derrick Harvey, or a tackle like Ryan Clady or Chris Williams. However, we aren’t factoring in trades (and Al Davis has never traded down in the first round before anyway), so Dorsey has to be the pick. Tommie Kelly’s massive contract locks him into the three-technique, but Dorsey would provide some desperately needed stability alongside him.
5. Kansas City Chiefs: Ryan Clady, OT, Boise St.
Sedrick Ellis is very tempting for the Chiefs but they desperately need offensive line help. Clady isn’t the 5th best player in the draft but he might be the second best tackle. Clady, Chris Williams and Jeff Otah are all very different styles of offensive lineman and Clady may not be the best fit for what the Chiefs want. Don’t be surprised to see a different tackle taken but Clady is the best overall of the group.
6. New York Jets: Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
When we did our post-combine mock draft, it was determined that the Jets had too many holes along the defensive front seven to take the talented back out of Arkansas. Many of those holes have been plugged since the start of free agency, and now it seems likely that McFadden will not fall beyond #6. Don’t be shocked if New York takes one of the cornerbacks here, but McFadden’s value and potential would be difficult to pass up.
7. New England Patriots: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee St.
The Patriots began to rebuild their secondary but with no real impact players. DRC has flown up everyone’s draft charts and most people are in agreement that no one has better natural skills for the position. He should get a lot of playing time early on and should make a significant impact on the aging secondary. We would say that he is the best cornerback in the draft and there is a possibility he goes even higher than #7.
8. Baltimore Ravens: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Many have Matt Ryan slotted in here, but the Ravens would be more than happy to take McKelvin or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. The Patriots will likely take one of the two, so Baltimore will snag the other. Chris McAllister is getting older and Samari Rolle’s best days are long gone. Despite all of the hype surrounding Matt Ryan, this is still far too early for him to be selected.
9. Cincinnati Bengals: Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
The Bengals are very fortunate to have Ellis fall into their laps at #9 overall. Their defense has been terrible the past two seasons and has been a big reason for their lack of success. They haven’t been able to stop the run and losing Justin Smith in free agency also hurts their pass rush but the addition of Ellis can aid both of those areas. Another offensive tackle would be a good addition but you can’t pass up Ellis here and they already have a ton of money invested into Levi Jones, Willie Anderson and Stacy Andrews.
10. New Orleans Saints: Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
This wouldn’t be an ideal situation for New Orleans. They would love to have McKelvin or Rodgers-Cromartie, and if both are gone they’d probably target Sedrick Ellis. With all three off the board, the Saints turn to Aqib Talib. He could finally provide the Saints with a true #1 cornerback. He gets the slight edge over Keith Rivers only because patching the defensive secondary is more of a need.
11. Buffalo Bills: Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
The Bills top selection would be a cornerback if DRC, McKelvin or Talib was available with this selection but since all three are gone they turn to the wide receiver position. Malcolm Kelly gets a strong look from the Bills but with his injury concerns and his questionable speed he isn’t worth taking 11th overall. Although it should be noted that the Bills don’t always beat to the same drum as everyone else and aren’t afraid to reach for a player. Sweed is a tall receiver with good hands but only average speed. He would be a perfect compliment to Lee Evans and adds another weapon for Trent Edwards.
12. Denver Broncos: Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
The Broncos absolutely have to draft an impact defensive tackle. Marcus Thomas is talented enough to start, but troubled enough to wind up suspended for a significant amount of time. Aside from him, Denver doesn’t have a quality defensive tackle. I’m starting to think there could be a number of teams trying to position themselves to trade up for Sedrick Ellis if he gets past the Chiefs at #5. He’s off the board here, so Balmer is a decent value. Chris Williams would fill their need at left tackle, but Sam Baker or Anthony Collins could possibly be there in the second round.
13. Carolina Panthers: Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
The Panthers could go a couple of different directions with this pick. Kenny Phillips stock has been falling but would greatly help their secondary and would be able to make an impact immediately. Drafting a running back such as Rashard Mendenhall or Jonathan Stewart would solidify the running game. However, the Panthers have made it a mission to re-tool their offensive line. They were able to retain both Jordan Gross (who will stay at right tackle) and Travelle Wharton who will move inside to guard to take over for the departed Mike Wahle. Ryan Kalil takes over at center for Justin Hartwig leaving the only real hole at left tackle. Chris Williams give the Panthers a much better line than they had in 2007 and I would expect rushing yardage to go up and sacks to go down.
14. Chicago Bears: Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
This should come down to Jeff Otah and Rashard Mendenhall. To the dismay of the Detroit Lions, who pick 15th, the Bears will go with Mendenhall. He’s going to be too tempting to pass on. Surely, they’ve already been familiar with him for quite some time, seeing as how he played his college ball at Illinois. Cedric Benson hasn’t worked out and the running game must get back on track for Chicago to do the same next season. Their need for an offensive tackle can be addressed in the second round with someone like Carl Nicks.
15. Detroit Lions: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
The Lions haven’t had a solid running game since Barry Sanders and could use a huge upgrade at that position. They have some needs on the defensive side of the ball and Keith Rivers would be an interesting selection but Stewart is too good to pass up. The releasing of Kevin Jones and not being able to sign Julius Jones shows that the Lions were attempting to upgrade at running back but failed to do so until now. A cornerback is also a need but the Lions acquired Brian Kelly who is an upgrade.
16. Arizona Cardinals: Branden Albert, OL, Virginia
The Cardinals desperately need a cornerback, but they’d get a better value by waiting until the second round. Branden Albert could step in and start immediately for an Arizona team that is primed for a playoff run in 2008. He may even be their left tackle of the future. This pick could also be Felix Jones or one of the other backs.
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