Did the D-Backs Win the Justin Upton Trade?

[Dback Jon]

At the time, the Arizona Diamondbacks didn't appear to get the better end of the trade that sent Justin Upton to the Atlanta Braves, as is usually the case when a team has to unload a big star.


In hindsight, it looks like Arizona did much better than imagined.

Back on January 24, 2013, Upton was traded alongside Chris Johnson to the Braves for Brandon Drury, Nick Ahmed, Martin Prado, Randall Delgado and Zeke Spruill.


http://sports.yahoo.com/news/arizona-diamondbacks-did-d-backs-win-justin-upton-163900131--mlb.html

 

[Dback Jon]

Although the Braves will have the last laugh as far as the standings are concerned, this trade is a clear victory for the Diamondbacks. They got a borderline All-Star in Prado, a solid starting pitcher with upside in Delgado and some minor leaguers to keep the farm stocked. Upton's inconsistency was getting tiresome in the Valley and they needed change. In hindsight, they did awfully well for themselves.

 

[Dback Jon]

Thoughts? Interesting take

 

[DWKB]

Yeah, Yahoo sports will let anyone write for them.

Simple analysis with an unfounded conclusion by a fan.

The Braves received 5+ WAR for 2 WAR and some minor leaguers. The DBacks traded a younger player for an older player soon to be a FA and over paid for him after. Any comment of Upton's "inconsistencies" this year has to be directed at Prado as well if not just blowing smoke.

Your tags are trolling.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Jon - I know you know this... but, you're ....

There are people who, no matter how well Prado, Delgado and the others perform, and no matter how exceedingly up & down, but mostly average Upton performs, will always believe that Towers screwed the pooch on this deal.
Just as there are those who, no matter how crappy and epically psychotic Bauers continues to be, will always believe that Towers screwed the pooch on that deal too...

As for me, I believe that both of these deals were for the betterment of the TEAM. And while Upton might well possess a higher WAR than Prado, and while Bauer might possess more talent in his little pinkly that Didi has in his entire body (that one is a serious exaggeration), that the TEAM is much better off as a result of these trades...

 

[DWKB]

Jon - I know you know this... but, you're ....

There are people who, no matter how well Prado, Delgado and the others perform, and no matter how exceedingly up & down, but mostly average Upton performs, will always believe that Towers screwed the pooch on this deal.
Just as there are those who, no matter how crappy and epically psychotic Bauers continues to be, will always believe that Towers screwed the pooch on that deal too...

As for me, I believe that both of these deals were for the betterment of the TEAM. And while Upton might well possess a higher WAR than Prado, and while Bauer might possess more talent in his little pinkly that Didi has in his entire body (that one is a serious exaggeration), that the TEAM is much better off as a result of these trades...

Yup, you and Jon are the clear eyed sane ones and it's the others who can't see clearly.
Your condescension is sickening.

The TEAM results don't really tell what you want to say though, so you've got your opinion and.......what exactly?

Jon wants to justify this trade so bad he brings in amateur blog posts.

Upton's had no character issues at all reported in ATL and they are doing a good job of winning there too. I think he had to go because "There are people who, no matter what Upton did or didn't do in ARI were going to hate on him" You know that.

 

[Dback Jon]

Jon - I know you know this... but, you're ....

There are people who, no matter how well Prado, Delgado and the others perform, and no matter how exceedingly up & down, but mostly average Upton performs, will always believe that Towers screwed the pooch on this deal.
Just as there are those who, no matter how crappy and epically psychotic Bauers continues to be, will always believe that Towers screwed the pooch on that deal too...

As for me, I believe that both of these deals were for the betterment of the TEAM. And while Upton might well possess a higher WAR than Prado, and while Bauer might possess more talent in his little pinkly that Didi has in his entire body (that one is a serious exaggeration), that the TEAM is much better off as a result of these trades...

Hey, I just saw the article and posted it

I think the author is a little bit too much of DBACK homer - I would put it slightly in ATL's favor, more because of Johnson, it is still too early to judge fully the trade.

 

[Dback Jon]

Mulli would like to point out how lucky Towers got when Upton refused to go to Seattle.

 

[Phrazbit]

Well... statistically Atlanta clearly won, record wise Atlanta clearly won, financially Atlanta won.

I dont really see the case for the Dbacks to go horn tooting on this one. Not only would Upton be our best outfield bat by far, despite his inconsistencies, but we gave away a 3rd baseman who is having a better year than our supposed prized boy... and then we have to throw a fat contract to Prado on top of it!

 

[bankybruce]

Just for fun I took the stats of Gerardo Parra, Martin Prado, A.J. Pollock, Chris Johnson and Justin Upton. I took out HR and RBI since that is a give away, Uption is the leader in HR and Prado is the leader in RBI. Match the line to the player without looking it up.

 

[bankybruce]

Looking up Uptons Defensive WAR, it is a -1.7, while Parra's is 3.5. Parra has played most of his games in RF, replacing Upton there. Upton had a -0.4 DWAR there last year. So we have a 3.9 improvement for DWAR in RF this year.

For 3B, Johnson has a -0.8 DWAR, while Prado has a 0.6 DWAR. Johnson also has 13 error there while Prado has 6. They ahve palyed 109 and 103 each at 3B.

Good thing HR's and BA are not the only factor in something like this.

And in case anyone cares, Pollock has a 1.7 DWAR in CF.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Well... statistically Atlanta clearly won, record wise Atlanta clearly won, financially Atlanta won.

I dont really see the case for the Dbacks to go horn tooting on this one. Not only would Upton be our best outfield bat by far, despite his inconsistencies, but we gave away a 3rd baseman who is having a better year than our supposed prized boy... and then we have to throw a fat contract to Prado on top of it!

What stats are you looking at that would suggest Atlanta has won?

 

[bankybruce]

What stats are you looking at that would suggest Atlanta has won?

Not the ones I posted.

And mine are missing Delgado.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Not the ones I posted.

And mine are missing Delgado.

Yep... that's what I thought...

 

[Phrazbit]

The same ol baseline batting numbers. Batting average, on base percentage, slugging. I get that people here dont like Upton and dont care about Chris Johnson but their OPS numbers are a lot better than anyone in those comparisons.

As for Delgado, I'm not ready to throw a parade just yet. His ERA is 5.4 since the start of August.

And what pisses me off most about the trade is we shipped off a huge asset for a guy who was about to be a free agent. Its just stupid. You guys can pound your chests over the trade all you want but there is no way in hell anyone associated with the Braves would try to take it back. For it to even become a question if the Dbacks "won" this deal IMO Delgado would have to make a major leap in development, because Prado is who he is and if the Dbacks were so hard for him they could have waited to pursue him in free agency.

PS: I dont buy WAR, that stat is trash. Any stat that tells me that Cliff Penninton has been more important to the dbacks than Aaron Hill or is four times as valuable as Eric Chavez... is bupkis.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Yeah, Yahoo sports will let anyone write for them.

Simple analysis with an unfounded conclusion by a fan.

The Braves received 5+ WAR for 2 WAR and some minor leaguers. The DBacks traded a younger player for an older player soon to be a FA and over paid for him after. Any comment of Upton's "inconsistencies" this year has to be directed at Prado as well if not just blowing smoke.

Your tags are trolling.

WAR is the most useless stat on the planet.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

PS: I dont buy WAR, that stat is trash. Any stat that tells me that Cliff Penninton has been more important to the dbacks than Aaron Hill or is four times as valuable as Eric Chavez... is bupkis.

Correct. It is the ultimate dork stat.

 

[DWKB]

WAR is the most useless stat on the planet.

I actually agree, because I find UZR to be the most useless state on the planet and WAR uses UZR for it's defensive side, but it's the closest you can come this year to making a case the DBacks got even value in the trade. Any other angle is ATL by a mile.

 

[82CardsGrad]

I actually agree, because I find UZR to be the most useless state on the planet and WAR uses UZR for it's defensive side, but it's the closest you can come this year to making a case the DBacks got even value in the trade. Any other angle is ATL by a mile.

By a mile?? I dunno... I guess you can only make that argument based on the once in a lifetime career year Chris Johnson put up. Without that anomoly, the Dbacks would've been considered to have gotten the better end of this deal this year...

 

[DWKB]

By a mile?? I dunno... I guess you can only make that argument based on the once in a lifetime career year Chris Johnson put up. Without that anomoly, the Dbacks would've been considered to have gotten the better end of this deal this year...

Yeah, if the reasons ATL looks to have won the trade this year weren't true then you couldn't make the argument they won the trade this year. Insightful posts like this is why I like you so much 82

 

[82CardsGrad]

Yeah, if the reasons ATL looks to have won the trade this year weren't true then you couldn't make the argument they won the trade this year. Insightful posts like this is why I like you so much 82

My point was directed at the "by a mile" comment...

 

[BC867]

By a mile?? I dunno... I guess you can only make that argument based on the once in a lifetime career year Chris Johnson put up. Without that anomoly, the Dbacks would've been considered to have gotten the better end of this deal this year...

Not only that, but Chris Johnson's career year has him only 3rd on the Braves with 63 RBI's. And he is 6th on the team in runs scored. For the offense, driving in and/or scoring runs is still what it is about.

BTW, Upton is second on the Braves in RBI's, one ahead of Johnson with a whopping 64. By comparison, Prado has 73 on the D'backs, second to Goldy and making up for Miggy's disappointing 38.

 

[DWKB]

Not only that, but Chris Johnson's career year has him only 3rd on the Braves with 63 RBI's. And he is 6th on the team in runs scored. For the offense, driving in and/or scoring runs is still what it is about.

BTW, Upton is second on the Braves in RBI's, one ahead of Johnson with a whopping 64. By comparison, Prado has 73 on the D'backs, second to Goldy and making up for Miggy's disappointing 38.

Actually I'd think not making outs is what it's all about for the offense. You don't make outs and the runs will follow.

Runs are contextual because ballparks are built unique and cities have different climates. Worth digging into the numbers though.

RISP     AB RBI AB/RBI BB AB/BB
Prado   142  53  2.67  18  7.89
Upton    99  34  2.91  22  4.5
Johnson 104  57  1.82   7 14.85

ROB      AB RBI AB/RBI BB AB/BB
Prado   251  66  3.80  26  9.65
Upton   205  46  4.46  32  6.40
Johnson 200  59  3.39   9 22.22

Both Johnson and Upton has less chances compared to Prado. Johnson actually had a better rate of knocking in runs per chance than Prado did. Upton does not do as well as Prado does per chance, but he does make up for that by making less outs than Prado does giving other players chances. Since it's a team sport and not an individual one and since ATL had more players driving in runs as a whole I'd say taking a BB instead of making an out is worth a lot. It's worth digging into the basic numbers like RBI beyond just the total IMO.

 

[Dback Jon]

Actually I'd think not making outs is what it's all about for the offense. You don't make outs and the runs will follow.

Runs are contextual because ballparks are built unique and cities have different climates. Worth digging into the numbers though.

RISP     AB RBI AB/RBI BB AB/BB
Prado   142  53  2.67  18  7.89
Upton    99  34  2.91  22  4.5
Johnson 104  57  1.82   7 14.85

ROB      AB RBI AB/RBI BB AB/BB
Prado   251  66  3.80  26  9.65
Upton   205  46  4.46  32  6.40
Johnson 200  59  3.39   9 22.22

Both Johnson and Upton has less chances compared to Prado. Johnson actually had a better rate of knocking in runs per chance than Prado did. Upton does not do as well as Prado does per chance, but he does make up for that by making less outs than Prado does giving other players chances. Since it's a team sport and not an individual one and since ATL had more players driving in runs as a whole I'd say taking a BB instead of making an out is worth a lot. It's worth digging into the basic numbers like RBI beyond just the total IMO.

I see you left strikeouts out. Which could be either good or bad, I guess. A strike out will not advance a runner, and gives zero chance of a sacrifice fly, etc. Other the other hand, you are guaranteed that you can't hit into a double play with a K.

For the record,

Upton - 148 K's (4th in NL)
Johnson - 103 K's (29th)
Prado - 48 K's (136th)

 

[DWKB]

I see you left strikeouts out. Which could be either good or bad, I guess. A strike out will not advance a runner, and gives zero chance of a sacrifice fly, etc. Other the other hand, you are guaranteed that you can't hit into a double play with a K.

For the record,

Upton - 148 K's (4th in NL)
Johnson - 103 K's (29th)
Prado - 48 K's (136th)

Which makes them just about the same as other outs despite the focus on them that you give, agree? BTW, who has the most outs for the record Jon?