Do The Suns Have A Chance Against The Spurs In the Western Finals?

[George O'Brien]

I doubt that Vegas is giving the Suns particularly good odds at winning the Western Conference. Not only is it hard to win in the playoffs against anyone, but the Spurs are a veteran team with some outstanding players. Wednesday's game wouldn't have proved much either way since Duncan and Manu were not 100%.

Oddly enough, Wednesday's game showed that the Spurs can play "small ball" quite. They played the passing lanes, trapped, and focused on creating turnovers. It is the style the Suns use and they had some success.

But Spurs had some of the same issues the Suns have. If they didn't force a turnover, the Suns scored fairly easily and ended up shooting 52.4% including 40% for three.

Spur coach Popovich has an interesting strategy. He matches the Spurs center against Stoudemire without help and tries to press the Suns outside shooter. The result has been some huge games by Amare. In three games he has scored 37, 35, and 44 points against the Spurs.

In their first game, the Suns did not respond well to this defensive strategy and shot under 40% (including only 4 of 12 for three). In the last two games, the Suns have shot 54% and 52.4% respectively. This is against a Spurs team that leads the league by holding opponents to only 42.2%. The Spurs hold opponents to an overage of only 86.8 ppg, but the Suns have scored in regulation 111 and 107 points.

The Spurs "small ball" lineup on Wednesday did have the effect of limiting the number of three point shots the Suns took to only 15 (the Suns hit 6 for 40%). On Jan 21, the Suns hit 11 of 21 (52.4%) for three.

It should not be surprising to learn that two of the Spurs losses have been to outside shooting Sonics. The Spurs are especially vulnerable to three point shooting teams in that they rank 24th in letting opponents shoot 37% for three against them.

It is not clear what Popovich will do if the Spurs meet the Suns in the playoffs. Amare simply wore out Nesterovic and Massenburg, yet putting Duncan on him risks getting Tim into foul trouble. But double teaming Amare (the usual strategy) leaves a three point shooter open. With a league leading 39.1% shooting percentage (566 of 1,447), the Suns have generally been able to burn teams that leave their guys open.

Obviously if the Spurs are allowed to play "playoff style" defense (ie being allowed to hand check, hold and hack with minimal calls), they win. But if they have to play straight defense, they may be forced to get into a scoring race with the Suns. Ths Spurs can score, but they are not a high scoring team and usually depend on their defense to win.

So? If the Spurs cannot stop the Suns, the Suns have a chance. Sometimes the Suns actually play defense. I'm not prepared to bet on their chances, but they could make the series very interesting.

 

[elindholm]

How much is "a chance"? We can't discuss the question meaningfully unless you define your terms. I have "a chance" to win $10 million in the lottery next week.

You aren't prepared to bet on the Suns? Depends, what odds are you getting?

 

[George O'Brien]

How much is "a chance"? We can't discuss the question meaningfully unless you define your terms. I have "a chance" to win $10 million in the lottery next week.

You aren't prepared to bet on the Suns? Depends, what odds are you getting?

Better than that.

Let me put it this way - better than the Nets the had two years ago against the Spurs.

 

[hcsilla]

Let me put it this way - better than the Nets the had two years ago against the Spurs.

Definitely yes.

The Suns have 3 things which the Nets 2 years ago didn't.

1. Much more dangeruos (Q-Rich) and consistent (JJ) outside-shooting.

2. A true inside power

3. A much better halfcourt-offense PG than Kidd.


To be fair the Nets were a better defensive team.

 

[elindholm]

It's hard to assess what the Nets' chances against the Spurs were, since we now know they lost. Does that mean their chance of victory was 0%? What chance did the Lakers have against the Pistons?

I think this year's Suns match up better with this year's Spurs than the Nets of two years ago did with those Spurs.

 

[az1965]

We have seen in the three regular season games that the refs are not going to give us any breaks against Spurs. So, we will have to overcome and win. I personally believe that it will be really tough to beat Spurs in a seven game series.

 

[The Commish]

We gotta get there first guys.

 

[pokerface]

Its getting kinda old ppl talking about the Spurs like some unstoppable force or something. I mean we do have the same record as them so of course we have a chance to beat them in a series!

OK I do realize they kicked our butts pretty good the first game and beat us the second game in OT. Plus our last outing wasnt impressive either even though we won. Still...we won the last game and the OT game was CLOSE with Nash's first game back and all. Its not like they just dominate us in every way...We have improved by adding players...more players that shoot the three! I mean if our threes are falling can any team really stop the Suns?? Practically our whole team shoots well beyond the arc and the Spurs dont defend the three well. That fact alone makes the Suns a serious threat to be reckoned with. Not only that but the Suns can take it inside with with Amare, Nash, Q....heck even JJ and Marion. Our whole team prety much is a threat inside/outside so the Spurs will have their hands full.

I know the Suns have weaknesses such as interior defense but I've seen them step it up in crucial situations. The Suns ARE capable of playing D and maybe just maybe they'll have the focus during the playoffs to pull it off.

We all know teams cant stop our offense...our PPG is off the charts this season. If the Suns just tighten up some on defense it will be very hard for ANY team to take us in a series...Spurs included!!

 

[cardsunsfan]

Its getting kinda old ppl talking about the Spurs like some unstoppable force or something. I mean we do have the same record as them so of course we have a chance to beat them in a series!

OK I do realize they kicked our butts pretty good the first game and beat us the second game in OT. Plus our last outing wasnt impressive either even though we won. Still...we won the last game and the OT game was CLOSE with Nash's first game back and all. Its not like they just dominate us in every way...We have improved by adding players...more players that shoot the three! I mean if our threes are falling can any team really stop the Suns?? Practically our whole team shoots well beyond the arc and the Spurs dont defend the three well. That fact alone makes the Suns a serious threat to be reckoned with. Not only that but the Suns can take it inside with with Amare, Nash, Q....heck even JJ and Marion. Our whole team prety much is a threat inside/outside so the Spurs will have their hands full.

I know the Suns have weaknesses such as interior defense but I've seen them step it up in crucial situations. The Suns ARE capable of playing D and maybe just maybe they'll have the focus during the playoffs to pull it off.

We all know teams cant stop our offense...our PPG is off the charts this season. If the Suns just tighten up some on defense it will be very hard for ANY team to take us in a series...Spurs included!!

I agree with your point if we get home field advantage I don't know if I do if they get it. Remember they've only lost 2 games at home! 2!!!!! You know how incredible that is? I bet they end up with the best home record ever!!! and we expect to beat them in their house even though they only (I'm guessing) lose 5% of their games there?

 

[Michael]

The Boston Celtics had a 40-1 home record one season.

More recently the Chicago Bulls and the Orlando Magic (both in 1996 if I'm not mistaken) had 39-2 home records.

 

[jandaman]

You guys are counting your chikens before the eggs hatch.

Suns are playing well, but anything can happen, chances are the 7th or 8th seed will be a good match up against suns. If suns passes the first round, a good chance that sonics will be there to meet us. Sonics are tough, come playoff time, their rotation of Evans, Fortson, Collison inside will make things hard for Amare.

Spurs are favourites now thats for sure, if Suns manage to face them somewhere down the line, Suns will have to continue to force Spurs playing our pace so that we have a chance, because they are the best half court team today and will beat anyone by that style. Spurs are averaging 114 points againts Suns, Suns are averaging 109 against them. They are very capable of scoring and defending. But as long as the game is shot for shot, hot offense... suns will always be in the game till the end.

 

[pokerface]

I agree with your point if we get home field advantage I don't know if I do if they get it. Remember they've only lost 2 games at home! 2!!!!! You know how incredible that is? I bet they end up with the best home record ever!!! and we expect to beat them in their house even though they only (I'm guessing) lose 5% of their games there?

On the face of it that sounds tough to win in SA but...

1) Suns have a very good road record..one of the best if not the best. Plus as a sidenote JoeJ plays MUCH better on the road than at home. If Johnson is on then we have a powerful one-two punch because Amare seems to thrive against the Spurs.

2) Suns will have more that one chance to win in SA...its doesnt come down to one game. If the Suns split the first two then that puts tremendous pressure on the Spurs (assuming Spurs have the better record).

3) If our threes are falling it doesnt matter where we are..Suns will probably win.

 

[pokerface]

You guys are counting your chikens before the eggs hatch.


Spurs are favourites now thats for sure, if Suns manage to face them somewhere down the line, Suns will have to continue to force Spurs playing our pace so that we have a chance, because they are the best half court team today and will beat anyone by that style. Spurs are averaging 114 points againts Suns, Suns are averaging 109 against them. They are very capable of scoring and defending. But as long as the game is shot for shot, hot offense... suns will always be in the game till the end.

Your point average seems scewed beacuse it takes into account the first game which was a blowout and we didnt have JimJ or McCarty plus Barbosa wasnt playing nearly as well as he is now.

 

[Gaddabout]

I'm more worried with how the Suns matchup with Houston, Denver or Memphis. Memphis really scares me. Denver appears athletic enough to cause problems, now that Karl has them playing some good defense. I probably fear Denver or Memphis more than I fear Seattle. I'm not worried about San Antonio because there are too many hurdles to clear before the Suns could even get to that point. San Antonio might have some problems if they face Seattle in the second round.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I'm more worried with how the Suns matchup with Houston, Denver or Memphis. Memphis really scares me. Denver appears athletic enough to cause problems, now that Karl has them playing some good defense. I probably fear Denver or Memphis more than I fear Seattle. I'm not worried about San Antonio because there are too many hurdles to clear before the Suns could even get to that point. San Antonio might have some problems if they face Seattle in the second round.

amen! the first round matchup scares the hell outta me. memphis has already proven they can beat us. they are long, athletic and deep. that kind of team causes us problems. denver scares me for the same reason. between camby, martin, and nene that's a lot of beef to throw at amare. and houston is surging now too (tonight's game will be telling). not to mention that if the lakers sneak in i would hate to play them 'cuz losing in the first round to them would be worse than losing to anyone else.

this year, more than any other year, the west is incredibly tough top to bottom. the 6, 7, and 8 seeds are not gonna be easy outs for any of the top tier teams.

 

[JPlay]

It would be an epic battle, but the Spurs match up well against the Suns. They have quick perimeter players, great one on one and help defense, good 3pt shooters and two shotblockers.

Duncan is great but he's becoming more of a defensive player and letting his other players do more scoring.

I'm not worried, our second game went to OT with Nash barely coming back and we won the last game, even though the Spurs weren't at full strength. I think we'd have a good chance, especially if they Spurs get Seattle or Memphis in the first couple of rounds.

 

[cly2tw]

When we keep Nash's playing time under 30min a game the rest of the season, win or lose, and under 32min in the playoffs, I'd consider the Suns favored to beat the Spurs in the WCF.

The rationale for this is that with 18min without Nash, we get some time to try to uncover the talent within the roster hardly utilized with Nash running the offense. With more experience, more confidence, and better insight into this potential of ours, plus better rested Nash, we can beat anybody.

Just look at the Spurs roster, take TD and Manu away, the rest is far inferior to what the Suns have after Amare and Nash. Everyone from the JJs, to Q, to Barbosa can score on those Spurs. On the other side, only Parker is good enough to do it against us. But why do we lose to them? Because we like to wear out Nash by playing him against the self-sacrifying bench players that Pop realized can neutralize the effectivity of the Suns running game. We hate to have other of our players shine without Nash leading the attack, exploiting matchup advantages, because it might reduce Nash's chance for MVP. In the 4th, Pop will always find a format to destroy the Suns with tired Nash.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

i'm

 

[George O'Brien]

Huh?

The Suns backups have only recently been successful without Nash and not always.

That being said, Parker is certainly vulnerable to being posted up when playing against a big guard.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

bored

 

[George O'Brien]

bored

Thank you for sharing.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

last

 

[cly2tw]

Huh?

The Suns backups have only recently been successful without Nash and not always.

That being said, Parker is certainly vulnerable to being posted up when playing against a big guard.

Is that an excuse that the coach didn't play them more in the last game vs the Spurs? Or do you agree with me on my proposal and assessment?

It's not only parker being vulnerable to posting up, our backups were destroying them late 1st quarter by all kind of postups, driving to hoops, since they were simply way superior players than the Spurs. Tell me what's the rationale not to stick to this advantage which also happens would give Nash a lot of rest?

 

[jibikao]

On the face of it that sounds tough to win in SA but...

1) Suns have a very good road record..one of the best if not the best. Plus as a sidenote JoeJ plays MUCH better on the road than at home. If Johnson is on then we have a powerful one-two punch because Amare seems to thrive against the Spurs.

2) Suns will have more that one chance to win in SA...its doesnt come down to one game. If the Suns split the first two then that puts tremendous pressure on the Spurs (assuming Spurs have the better record).

3) If our threes are falling it doesnt matter where we are..Suns will probably win.

I like positive thoughts. I really don't think we are THAT behind Spurs.

The last two meetings, Suns shot above 50%!!! Spurs' defense doesn't seem to work all that well against us except in the first game at their home court.

Yeah, Duncan/Manu didn't play but that doesn't give away 50% shooting if you are the best defensive team in the league.

I like Suns' chances but like everyone said, anything could happen. Hell, Spurs may even lose in the 2nd round!! Who knows.

 

[scotsman13]

can the suns beat the spurs in a 7 games? yes but there are a couple things that will help this out. if nash is given the MVP (if he gets it) before we face the spurs, then almost anyone that puts his hands on nash will be called for a foul. if amare is named to the 1st, 2nd and 3rd all nba teams (maybe marion to). if coach d is given coach of the year and BC the eoy. all of these things may carry over into the playoffs and get us some better calls from the refs.