BY JOHN HOLLINGER
July 27, 2005
Resist the urge.
That's my advice for NBA teams deciding whether to match another club's outrageous offer for a restricted free agent.
Let's say you're the owner of Team X and you have a pretty good player named Fred who averaged 17 points a game last season. Fred isn't an All-Star, but he's an important part of your team at both ends and popular with the fans. He's also a restricted free agent, and you're terribly worried about losing him. Without him, you figure your team might drop several games in the standings next season. Plus, the fans will heckle you and call you a cheapskate.
Let's say Team Y comes along and offers Fred a five-year, $70 million contract to come play with them, and you have seven days to match the offer. You know Fred isn't worth $70 million; heck, he's probably worth half that. But your team is over the salary cap and isn't going to be able to replace Fred with a player of equal quality.What do you do?
Well, neither option is good. If you let Fred walk, your team will decline in the standings and the fans might stay away. On the other hand, if Fred stays, you'll be greatly overpaying for his services.You'll also be over the salary cap for the foreseeable future and will be limited in your ability to add other players to the team. Moreover, Fred's contract will make him extremely difficult to trade if he doesn't mesh with a future coach or strategy.
Here's the key difference between options one and two: If you don't sign Fred, the situation is temporary, but if you keep him, it's permanent. Match that deal for Fred, and you're stuck with him. Your team will have a great deal of difficulty getting better than it is now, and it will probably get worse. After all,in a couple of years, another Fred will come along, and you won't be able to re-sign him because of all the money you're already paying Fred.
Consider a great example from the local market. Last year, the Nets were vilified in the press for allowing Kenyon Martin to leave for Denver. Yes, there were other reasons for this outpouring of scorn. The Nets' new owner, Bruce Ratner, seemed intent on dumping as many players as he could as fast as possible, which alarmed fans of a team that had won three straight division titles. But much of it was a reaction to the feeling that the Nets had lost their second-best player and gotten little in return. Yes, the Nuggets were offering more than Martin was worth, but how could they let such an important player go?
In reality,the Nets couldn't have played their hand better. By bluffing about their willingness to match Martin's contract, the Nets extracted three first-round picks from the Nuggets. Two of those choices were subsequently converted into Vince Carter, whom Nets fans may have noticed is twice the player that Martin is.
Now look at the Nets. New Jersey was able to go on the free-agent market and nab a player roughly as good as Martin in Portland's Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Better yet, the Nets were able to clinch the deal because they had an extra first-round pick and a trade exception from the Martin deal with Denver. So in the end, the Nets traded Kenyon Martin for Vince Carter and Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Not too shabby, huh?
What would the Nets be like if they had matched the deal for Martin? Well, for one, Richard Jefferson would be a restricted free agent right now, because New Jersey wouldn't have been able to give him a huge contract extension last season if Martin and Jason Kidd were already maxed out. Additionally, the Nets would have been much more limited on the free-agent market. They might have been able to use their mid-level exception, but the Carter-Abdur-Rahim Nets have that option, too. And the Carter trade? It would have been much more difficult to pull off if the Nets hadn't been dangling those extra draft picks.
So the Nets opted for temporary pain in place of a permanent condition. Let's hope the Phoenix Suns have been watching, because they're in the same situation the Nets were facing a year ago. Once free agents are able to sign contracts (which should be in a week, although it's been delayed twice already), the Atlanta Hawks are going to make an obscene five-year, $70 million offer for Phoenix's promising shooting guard, Joe Johnson. Johnson was a vital piece of the Suns' 62-win juggernaut last season, so Phoenix certainly has to feel tempted to match the offer.
But if they think about it coolly, they'll pass in favor of the next good opportunity to replace him more cheaply. Looking at the Suns' roster, they already have two players making near the max in Steve Nash and Shawn Marion, and they will have a third as soon as Amare Stoudemire signs an extension.If the Suns gave Johnson the max as well, they would be near the luxury-tax threshold with only four players, making it virtually impossible to surround that crew with championship-caliber talent.
Instead, let's suppose the Suns let Johnson go.They'll take a step back this season, perhaps, but they'll be much better-positioned for the long run. A year from now, they'll be able to use their mid-level exception on a guard of nearly the same quality. In the meantime, the organization would have some wiggle room under the luxury tax to make deals at the trade deadline like the one that got the Nets Carter.
Besides, Johnson isn't worth the money. Look at his PER (Player Efficiency Rating, my measure of a player's per-minute statistical performance). Last year it was 15.18, barely clearing the league average of 15.00. Is that kind of talent so rare that the Suns have to shell out $70 million for it? I don't think so.
Johnson isn't the only example, either. The Chicago Bulls are facing a similar dilemma with big men Tyson Chandler (PER 16.50) and Eddy Curry (16.22), and Seattle could end up in the same boat with Vladimir Radmanovic (13.6. But with an offer already in hand, Johnson is this summer's most prominent case.
So if you're reading this, Bryan Colangelo, tell Joe Johnson to take the Hawks' money and run. And if the fans give you lip about it, just remind them about how the Nets fared when they "lost" the bidding for Kenyon Martin.
Remember guys, Nets got Carter for trash and 2 first round picks.
