Don't Fall For It!

[hafey]

Zito is not worth 15 million. No way, no how.

 

[shoewizard]

where did you get the 2007 figures? Not questioning you, just always looking for better sources.

Well, the guys that have signed multi year contracts already are the easiest of course, because the information is readily available at this site:

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/

Then, you have all the first and second year players. Major League minimum is 380,000 for next season. So I assigned that to the rookies and guys that played less than a full season last year, (with the exception of Drew)

Then you have guys like Snyder or Jackson....they are pre arbitration, but will make more than major league minimum, but not by a lot.

Finally you have the arbitration eligible guys. Based on experience and market knowledge and discussion with other folks that know even more than I do, I have estimated the likely settled upon contract for the various arb guys. Service time has alot to do with it. A guy in his 3rd yr of arbitration is going to get alot more than a guy in his first year, unless the first year guy is a huge star already.

The Estimated Arbitration numbers are the ones that have the largest margin for error in my list, but I think they are going to be about 90% accurate.

Finally, you have the amounts due to Green and Ortiz. It was published that the D Backs and Mets were more or less splitting Greens remaining money, and of course Donut Boy is still getting his 8 million no matter what.

The callups is just a rough estimate......guys come up at different points in the season and make major league minimum for however long they are here.

 

[overseascardfan]

Zito is not worth 15 million. No way, no how.

Well he's alot better than Meche and Suppan and will get at least that whether you think he's worth it or not.

 

[Diamondback Jay]

He'll get it.. That doesn't mean I want the Diamondbacks to give it to him.

 

[coyoteshockeyfan]

Okay your misunderstanding me, I said he is asking for that much, I did not say the D-back's will sign him for that much because I know they won't. I would love to have him for 15 million because aces that actually do make to FA will be asking for that much if not more next year. Do I want to risk signing him and no one else for awhile, um let me think, sure. Who did they sign last year, this year, I'll wait. Who will they sign next year, probably no one because premier players won't reach FA, ie Vernon Wells. Plus those that reach FA will want more than 15-16 million because salaries and contract offers increase every year to where most teams will overpay and leave the D'backs high and dry and saying wait until next year.

Coyote, do you think Zito is worth 15-16 million? Or should I say is that a fair deal for someone with his credentials, mind you this isn't Meche or Suppan.

There is no denying that Zito is far superior to Meche who is making $11M a year. My point is the Dbacks are going to be able to offer that kind of cash to a player once. They cannot afford to screw it up. I would rather they wait until they are closer to becoming a threat to give out that kind of contract rather than giving it out now.

 

[KingLouieLouie]

I applaud the fact that the Dbacks are finally trying to be more fiscally responsible in their actions by not pursuing rather mediocre talent (ala Russ Ortiz) and signing them to long-term lucrative deals..... The reason why the Dbacks made those drastic signings of Ortiz and Glaus back in the '04 offseason was because they wanted to compensate for losing out on Sexton and also to sign someone for the sake of it.....

They don't want to invest long-term now since several of their players will be due lucractive deals within the next couple of seasons or should be locked-up to long-term contracts before their bargaining powers will go through the roof.... They must follow what the Devil Rays did when they immediately extended the likes of Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli's contract..... Their contracts are less compared to their actual value/worth..... CoJack and Quentin immediately come to mind as those players who will warrant that type of contract.... The Dbacks actually did do that w/their contracts they negotiated for Webb and Tracy.....

It's best to take the As and Twins approach... or heck.. even what the Tigers did..... Establish a younger nucleus of players as a set foundation and sign all of them to long-term deals (which the Dbacks are strategizing) and then gradually acquire the lacking ingrediants via trades and FAs... not making one big splash with adding just one major FA, but 3-4 mid-level FAs who would be of major benefit.....

Theyre keeping their payroll budgeted around $65 mil, no way will they spend $10-15 mil on just one player while there are some players currently arbitratrion eligible and also a couple more holes to fill on this team.... It's too early to dub this offseason on whether or not it's a failure... Just glad Byrnes has been more composed and gets the max out of every deal he's made... I really trust what he's doing and he'll continue to work wonders... Just wait and see.....

I know obviously us as Dbacks fans want to see a better product on the field, but it cannot happen again overnight (ala '01)..... They must establish that foundation and build-off of that... that's how potential dynasties are made.. just we must further our patience in the process....

 

[WildBB]

I applaud the fact that the Dbacks are finally trying to be more fiscally responsible in their actions by not pursuing rather mediocre talent (ala Russ Ortiz) and signing them to long-term lucrative deals..... The reason why the Dbacks made those drastic signings of Ortiz and Glaus back in the '04 offseason was because they wanted to compensate for losing out on Sexton and also to sign someone for the sake of it.....

They don't want to invest long-term now since several of their players will be due lucractive deals within the next couple of seasons or should be locked-up to long-term contracts before their bargaining powers will go through the roof.... They must follow what the Devil Rays did when they immediately extended the likes of Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli's contract..... Their contracts are less compared to their actual value/worth..... CoJack and Quentin immediately come to mind as those players who will warrant that type of contract.... The Dbacks actually did do that w/their contracts they negotiated for Webb and Tracy.....

It's best to take the As and Twins approach... or heck.. even what the Tigers did..... Establish a younger nucleus of players as a set foundation and sign all of them to long-term deals (which the Dbacks are strategizing) and then gradually acquire the lacking ingrediants via trades and FAs... not making one big splash with adding just one major FA, but 3-4 mid-level FAs who would be of major benefit.....

Theyre keeping their payroll budgeted around $65 mil, no way will they spend $10-15 mil on just one player while there are some players currently arbitratrion eligible and also a couple more holes to fill on this team.... It's too early to dub this offseason on whether or not it's a failure... Just glad Byrnes has been more composed and gets the max out of every deal he's made... I really trust what he's doing and he'll continue to work wonders... Just wait and see.....

I know obviously us as Dbacks fans want to see a better product on the field, but it cannot happen again overnight (ala '01)..... They must establish that foundation and build-off of that... that's how potential dynasties are made.. just we must further our patience in the process....

well stated.

 

[shoewizard]

yes, KLL's post explains where the team is in their success cycle perfectly.

By being prudent now, the team will be set up for a run of division titles and playoff appearances starting in 2008. By going for broke in 2007, the team would be putting the next 6 years at risk.

 

[Zeno]

Zito is not worth 15 million. No way, no how.

Yet some people think Randy Johnson at 43 is worth $16 million?

 

[KingLouieLouie]

Yet some people think Randy Johnson at 43 is worth $16 million?

That logic is because Johnson would be here for 1-yr at $16 mil (would could possibly restructure both his contract and $40 mil owed to him in deferments) opposed to locking-up Zito to a 5-year deal ($80 mil) for a pitcher who will be 29 this upcoming May.... Also, it seems that Zito's stats have begun to decline some, so imagine when he's 33 and midway through his contract....He would be locked-up to a long-term deal and no one at that time would be willing to take Zito off their hands... unless the Dbacks pay most of his remaining contract... Whereas w/RJ...it's essentially one-and-done without effectively ruining the long-term situation for the franchise....

 

[Stan C]

Thanks shoe

 

[Diamondback Jay]

If you can't tell the difference between 16 million for one year and 15 million for 6 years, then I don't really know what to tell you.

 

[Zeno]

If you can't tell the difference between 16 million for one year and 15 million for 6 years, then I don't really know what to tell you.

My point is I'd rather pay a younger pitcher on a 5-6 yr contract than pay ANYTHING for 43 yr old Randy Johnson--especially $16 stinking million.

Look at what average pitchers are getting in free agency now, you think Meche and Suppan are better than Zito? Zito is 28 yrs old...meaning we can get 5 quality years out of him. When Randy Johnson was that age he had more losses than wins and an ERA over 4 and 3 straight seasons with over 100 BB's...I'm not saying Zito is Johnson but pitchers can hit their strides in their late 20's early 30's.

 

[Espo]

There is much more risk in paying Zito 16M over 5 than paying Johnson say 20M over the next two seasons or even one season at 16M. If Johnson doesn't do anything fine you have one year of a bad contract and eat it and move on. Zito has a lot of innings on him and hasn't had much better stats in the last five years than Doug Davis and if he doesn't pan out you are stuck paying a lot more than Zito. Less risk on Johnson.

 

[Diamondback Jay]

My point is I'd rather pay a younger pitcher on a 5-6 yr contract than pay ANYTHING for 43 yr old Randy Johnson--especially $16 stinking million.

Look at what average pitchers are getting in free agency now, you think Meche and Suppan are better than Zito?

See, you're the third or fourth person to bring the contracts of Meche and Suppan in to the picture.. I don't think that either are better than Zito. That's not my point in this arguement though.. Just because other teams are rediculously overpaying for pitching doesn't mean I want to see the Diamondbacks do it.

I'm not crazy about the idea of Randy Johnson either, but I'd rather have one year of him at $16 million than I would spend the money Barry Zito's looking for.

 

[Zeno]

See, you're the third or fourth person to bring the contracts of Meche and Suppan in to the picture.. I don't think that either are better than Zito. That's not my point in this arguement though.. Just because other teams are rediculously overpaying for pitching doesn't mean I want to see the Diamondbacks do it.

Then you are missing the point. The market has been set, it won't EVER go down. In 2 years 15-16 million won't seem like squat for a decent pitcher.

Unless you have faith in the D-Backs farm system to develop quality starters we'll have to pay a lot for a good rotation.

 

[Diamondback Jay]

I have faith in who Arizona currently has, as well as the arms down on the farm, like Owings and Nippert.

Also, 13 million doesn't seem like squat for a decent pitcher either, which is exactly what Russ Ortiz was when Arizona got him.. We all saw how well that went down. Same with Andy Benes. Same with Todd Stottlemyer.

Sorry, but I'll take Webb, Davis (who's numbers are strikingly similar to Zito's but he's a hell of a lot cheaper) and Livan and be happy with it.

Also, a lot of people seem to be in the mindset that you have to spend a huge amount of money to be competitive, which is inaccurate. Look at the Twins and A's over the last 5 years. Those two teams hardly play big in Free Agency, yet year in, year out they are either playoff bound or at the top half of the standings. That's the type of success Arizona should strive for, and the blue print they should follow.

 

[Espo]

Then you are missing the point. The market has been set, it won't EVER go down. In 2 years 15-16 million won't seem like squat for a decent pitcher.

Unless you have faith in the D-Backs farm system to develop quality starters we'll have to pay a lot for a good rotation.

This kind of spending happened a few years back when A-rod got $25M/year and it came back down to earth. To say that the market is set and won't EVER go down is a far stretch. There will be a market correction when people realize how stupid some of the spending was.

 

[Zeno]

Also, 13 million doesn't seem like squat for a decent pitcher either, which is exactly what Russ Ortiz was when Arizona got him.. We all saw how well that went down. Same with Andy Benes. Same with Todd Stottlemyer.

You aren't even comparing similar players with Ortiz, Stott or Benes. Age and perfomance-wise when they were signed they were not close to Zito.

I don't care what the numbers say about Davis--he isn't Zito, he hasn't ever had a season anywhere near as well as Zito's Cy Young.

 

[Espo]

Pitcher A
3rd year before free agency- 14-10 3.61 ERA
2nd - 21-7 3.81 ERA
last - 15-9 4.13 ERA

Pitcher B
3rd year- 11-11 4.48 ERA
2nd- 14-13 3.86 ERA
last- 16-10 3.83 ERA

Without looking it up can you tell me which one is Russ Ortiz and which is Barry Zito?

 

[Diamondback Jay]

I know this.... But I'm not saying, I want to see the guessed answer.

 

[overseascardfan]

Pitcher A
3rd year before free agency- 14-10 3.61 ERA
2nd - 21-7 3.81 ERA
last - 15-9 4.13 ERA

Pitcher B
3rd year- 11-11 4.48 ERA
2nd- 14-13 3.86 ERA
last- 16-10 3.83 ERA

Without looking it up can you tell me which one is Russ Ortiz and which is Barry Zito?

Yes Ais Ortiz, point taken.

 

[Zeno]

Yes Ais Ortiz, point taken.

Ortiz was also over 30 when he signed with the D-Backs and had over 100 BBs in 4 of 6 seasons (with the other 2 being over 90).

Different pitchers.

 

[Espo]

The fact that Billy Beanne didn't even make any offer whatsoever to Zito speaks volumes to me. He is the best in baseball of knowing when a player is on the decline.

 

[Zeno]

The fact that Billy Beanne didn't even make any offer whatsoever to Zito speaks volumes to me. He is the best in baseball of knowing when a player is on the decline.

He didn't do it because Oakland has a history of doing those things, they did that with field players like Giambi & Damon. They have historically built their teams through their farm systems and get what they can out of their players until they become free agents and then trade them away or let them sign elsewhere.