Crack of the Bat
by Patrick Ebert
Max Scherzer – Draft Wild Card
When scanning top prospect lists, unsigned first-rounder Max Scherzer, the 11th overall selection of the Arizona Diamondbacks from a year ago, does not appear. Most assume Scherzer will eventually sign with the D-Backs, as most players that remain under the control of the team that drafted them the year before do. Justin Upton, Mike Pelfrey, Stephen Drew, Jered Weaver and Adam Loewen are all recent, high draft picks that waited until the year after they were drafted to sign. Loewen’s case is different from the others in that he chose to attend Chipola Junior College where the Orioles continued to hold his rights and follow his progress as a draft and follow candidate.
One notable player did not sign: Luke Hochevar.
It’s important to point out that Hochevar’s situation was truly unique. After falling to the 40th overall selection in the 2005 draft due to signability concerns, Hochevar had reportedly switched to agent/advisor Matt Sosnick from his previous affiliation with Scott Boras. With Sosnick, Hochevar reportedly agreed to a contract with the Dodgers, only to switch back to Boras and therefore remained unsigned. The negotiations apparently got unfriendly, and no doubt that damage was too much for either side to overcome.
However, Hochevar went from a player that fell in 2005 due to signability concerns to a player the Royals plucked first overall in the 2006 draft due to his relative eagerness to sign for the money the Royals were willing to spend. Faced with financial concerns, the Royals deemed Andrew Miller’s reported bonus demands to be too rich for their blood, and inked Hochevar to a contract similar to what Mike Pelfrey, who along with Hochevar was considered one of the top college pitchers available for the 2005 draft, had received from the Mets eight months before.
I should point out that the money in question is far from pocket change, and according to recent reports, Scherzer is looking for the same kind of money that both Hochevar and Pelfrey received, and at this point in time it doesn’t appear as though the Diamondbacks are willing to give him that much money as the 11th overall selection. That may be good news for the Devil Rays and Royals, who have the first and second overall picks for the 2007 draft, both of which could definitely use a relatively polished arm like Scherzer’s.
However, the reason Hochevar came into play last year for the Royals was because of Andrew Miller’s aforementioned lofty bonus demands, and he did end up signing for more money than Hochevar did as the sixth overall pick of the Detroit Tigers. This became an option since Miller and Hochevar were not represented by the same advisor, nor were the other two candidates that were reportedly being considered for the first overall pick: Brad Lincoln and Tim Lincecum. Hochevar and his advisor, Scott Boras, recognized this opportunity and made the most of it, as the situation benefited both the player and the team, a win-win situation for everyone involved.
This year the situation may not allow for that, at least not as much. The three players generally regarded as the top three players available for the 2007 draft, David Price, Matt Wieters and Andrew Brackman, all reportedly may be advised by Boras this spring, and I’m sure no agent wants to use any of their representatives against one another for the purpose of negotiation.
Another reason why Scherzer may not sign is the departure of former D-Backs scouting director Mike Rizzo, who left the organization late last year to assume the role of Assistant General Manager and V.P. of Baseball Operations for the Washington Nationals. Rizzo is responsible for the Diamondbacks surge of talent in recent years, and didn’t shy away from the opportunity to draft and negotiate with both Stephen Drew and Justin Upton. New scouting director Tom Allison is working with General Manager Josh Byrnes in the negotiations to sign Scherzer, but again, the history just isn’t there as it was with Rizzo.
If it weren’t for a couple of relatively minor injury issues during the 2006 college baseball season, Scherzer would have been selected much higher. He entered the spring of 2006 as one of the top draft-eligible prospects available for last June’s draft, coming off of a sensational sophomore season in which he was named the Big 12 pitcher of the year and a very good summer campaign for Team USA in which he struck out 24 and walked only two in 20 innings of work. However, just before the start of the ’06 season, Scherzer slammed a car door on the middle finger of his pitching hand. Later in the spring he developed tendonitis in the biceps of his throwing arm, which caused him to miss a few of his schedule starts.
When Scherzer did pitch, he pitched very well. He appeared in 14 games, starting 13 of them, posting a 7-3 record with a 2.25 ERA. He continued to keep his walks down (23 in 80.1 innings), which was the biggest concern that lingered over him entering the 2006 season. Overall at Missouri he compiled a 16-8 record, a 2.48 ERA while allowing only 135 hits with 232 strikeouts in 206.2 innings of work. Add that production with his mid-90s heater that can approach triple digits as well as a knock-out slider, and you have a potential staff ace at any level.
Regardless if Scherzer signs with the Diamondbacks or decides to re-enter the draft, his name could become an interesting trivia answer, as a new rule instituted by Major League Baseball will require all drafted players to be signed by August 15th, approximately two months after the draft. In the meantime he is expected to follow in a similar path of Hochevar, Weaver and Drew, diligently working out in the off-season before he is expected to join an Independent League team to stay sharp while maintaining, if not improving, his draft stock.
