Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
Look for a furious amount of moves in this draft. The number of teams desperate for a QB is significant. So assessing that market is a good place to start. Much may depend on the workouts. Most observers see the top tier to number 3, but a few add a fourth. The top 2 consensus choices are Young & Stroud, principally in that order. A few believe Levis may actually be the top choice. The important thing is what do the teams in possession of early picks believe?
The Bears have made it clear they desire to move. Frankly it’s a no brainer. Since my information is they see Carter & Anderson well ahead of the field, they could trade down to the four slot and still have one of them fall in their lap, plus a nice assortment . Both the team moving up and the Texans surely will take a QB. I going to discount the notion Texas is so dense they might move up to get their choice. Most gurus give a slight edge to Young, but the edge is not significant, especially since Stroud displayed good mobility in his last effort.
So it starts with how far down are the Bears willing to go. To my thinking only the Raiders at 7 and the Panthers at 9 would even be considered. Beyond those choices there are certainly stacks of good players but the Bears’ fans will demand an impact player to be included in their haul. They will go Front 7 so beyond Carter & Anderson, there’s Bresee, Murphy and Wilson. After that there’s a big drop in impact. Both of these teams would need to surrender picks from 2023 & 2024, despite Carolina having 2 number twos in 2023. Both teams need to win fans. Vegas is new to the city and some thought they would already be a contender. I think they have more incentive to win now than Carolina. The question for each is can a QB be the difference in being a playoff contender? Yet neither team would seem deep enough to give up the needed picks and still contend, without many breaks. So, the willingness to move up might not be as great as portrayed. The other issue is the cap and here Carolina is in big trouble, so I’m eliminating them as trading partner for the Bears.
I’ve noticed people mentioning the trade value charts. Throw them away when your talking top tier QBs. They’re a whole different game. If I were the Bears I’d ask for the Raiders 1st & 2nd in 2023, 1st in 2024 and 1st in 2025. I know that’s an overpay, but I firmly believe the Bears much prefer to go with the Indy slot and a sure thing impact player.
As for Indy, depending on what the Colts believe is the order of the QBs, that will determine how much they would invest to get their choice. Certainly they can likely get one of the top 3 QBs by staying put, if they see no major separation. This situation, however, leaves the Bears with limited leverage other than threatening a Raiders trade. I’m thinking they settle for less, like a first & second this year plus a first next year.
I do not see teams looking to take Richardson considering trading for a top 4 pick. He could well not go in the top 10 but his workouts will be critical.
I also think the Cards might be able to leverage a second or third round pick from Indy if Indy stays put and the Cards threaten to trade the pick.
There is also the outside possibility some team could try to trade up to Seattle or Detroit and then move up to the Bears. The problem is that team would give up too much draft capital to contend with just a QB acquisition.
In the end the Bears are historically a conservative team. The Indy route seems their likeliest choice.
The Bears have made it clear they desire to move. Frankly it’s a no brainer. Since my information is they see Carter & Anderson well ahead of the field, they could trade down to the four slot and still have one of them fall in their lap, plus a nice assortment . Both the team moving up and the Texans surely will take a QB. I going to discount the notion Texas is so dense they might move up to get their choice. Most gurus give a slight edge to Young, but the edge is not significant, especially since Stroud displayed good mobility in his last effort.
So it starts with how far down are the Bears willing to go. To my thinking only the Raiders at 7 and the Panthers at 9 would even be considered. Beyond those choices there are certainly stacks of good players but the Bears’ fans will demand an impact player to be included in their haul. They will go Front 7 so beyond Carter & Anderson, there’s Bresee, Murphy and Wilson. After that there’s a big drop in impact. Both of these teams would need to surrender picks from 2023 & 2024, despite Carolina having 2 number twos in 2023. Both teams need to win fans. Vegas is new to the city and some thought they would already be a contender. I think they have more incentive to win now than Carolina. The question for each is can a QB be the difference in being a playoff contender? Yet neither team would seem deep enough to give up the needed picks and still contend, without many breaks. So, the willingness to move up might not be as great as portrayed. The other issue is the cap and here Carolina is in big trouble, so I’m eliminating them as trading partner for the Bears.
I’ve noticed people mentioning the trade value charts. Throw them away when your talking top tier QBs. They’re a whole different game. If I were the Bears I’d ask for the Raiders 1st & 2nd in 2023, 1st in 2024 and 1st in 2025. I know that’s an overpay, but I firmly believe the Bears much prefer to go with the Indy slot and a sure thing impact player.
As for Indy, depending on what the Colts believe is the order of the QBs, that will determine how much they would invest to get their choice. Certainly they can likely get one of the top 3 QBs by staying put, if they see no major separation. This situation, however, leaves the Bears with limited leverage other than threatening a Raiders trade. I’m thinking they settle for less, like a first & second this year plus a first next year.
I do not see teams looking to take Richardson considering trading for a top 4 pick. He could well not go in the top 10 but his workouts will be critical.
I also think the Cards might be able to leverage a second or third round pick from Indy if Indy stays put and the Cards threaten to trade the pick.
There is also the outside possibility some team could try to trade up to Seattle or Detroit and then move up to the Bears. The problem is that team would give up too much draft capital to contend with just a QB acquisition.
In the end the Bears are historically a conservative team. The Indy route seems their likeliest choice.
