Draft Thoughts

[GimmedaBall]

I'm certain all those guys doing power ratings have more than just a passing knowledge of the Cardinals. Details like not having our starting QB most of the year...or that we were a top ten offense the last four weeks of the season when kyler adapted to the new system...and how we did that with only one wr over 6 foot.

We went 1-3 over our last four games with a loss to the Whiners, the Bears, and the Seahags. We beat the Eagles. That victory was a combination of JG’s knowledge of his old team, the Cards wanting to rally around their new HC, sub-par play by Hurts, and our ability to hold on to the ball for 39 minutes and 32 first downs.

Over the last four games, the Cards totaled 913 yards passing for a 228.25 ypg average. The league average (all 17 games/all teams) was 218 ypg. That 4 four-game total in passing would have placed us slightly above the league average. The Bengals were at 229 ypg average for the year in passing and finished ranked at 15 out of the 32 teams.

Over the last four games, the Cards totaled 754 yards rushing for a 188.5 ypg average. We put up over 200+ yards vs the Whiners, Eagles, Seahags with ‘only ‘93' vs the Bears. The league average for the year was 112.7 ypg so the Cards were up by 76 yds over the league average with the running game. The four-game average would be #1 if it was extended over a full 17-game schedule. For the year, the Ravens finished #1 at 156 ypg and the Cards finished at #4 with a 139.1 ypg.

What moved the needle of the Card's offense in the last 4 games was the running game (OL and Conner) and not the passing game. KM passed to the league average while our run game was at the very top.

 

[daves]

Over the last four games, the Cards totaled 913 yards passing for a 228.25 ypg average. The league average (all 17 games/all teams) was 218 ypg. That 4 four-game total in passing would have placed us slightly above the league average. [....]

What moved the needle of the Card's offense in the last 4 games was the running game (OL and Conner) and not the passing game. KM passed to the league average while our run game was at the very top.

In fairness, Hollywood Brown was hurt vs. the 49ers, so the Cards' leading receivers in that game were McBride, Higgins, Swaim, and Dortch ("top" WRs Wilson and Pascal were shut out on 7 targets). The following week at Chicago the leading receivers were Conner, Dortch, Demercado, and McBride. Then at Philadelphia it was Dortch leading the pack, with McBride, Wilson, and Moore for the win. And in the season finale vs. the Seahawks, Wilson, Conner, McBride, and Higgins made up the top four pass catchers.

Hopefully with a true #1 WR in the fold, Murray will have an easier time racking up yards. Frankly, putting up average passing stats over the final four games with those WRs is kinda impressive.

 

[GimmedaBall]

KM is currently a mid-level average QB. I agree with this Aug 2023 ranking that has him at #14 league-wide:

Kyler Murray's Surprising Rank Among NFL Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray has proven to be a capable NFL starting quarterback when healthy. Where does he rank amongst the league's starters?

lastwordonsports.com

For KM to rise above that characterization, we need the other pieces of the puzzle to step up. For the last four games in 2023, it was the running game that was the superior gear in our O. Our D played with intensity and energy but was still bad. Our WR talent was a mish-mash of players with no real #1.

I fear that with MHJ, KM will revert to force-feeding the ball in the direction of his #1 WR. If we don’t add to our WR room, MHJ will have double coverage rolled his way. KM will make one of his panic throws high to MHJ and get him tangled up with double coverage on his way down to the ground. That’s how DHOP went down, AJ Green knee injury, Fitz playing through his injury at the end. KM still twists his receivers into pretzels with some of his poor throws. I cringe for the receivers when they corkscrew themselves trying to make a completion on one of KM's off-target behind the back and over-the-head hail-mary to avoid the sack throws. Too many KM throws are delivered that lead receivers into the path of defenders bearing down for the big hit. The QB has to deliver the ball but also protect his receiver making the catch.

Here's a fun Youtube video of all of the Trey McBridge catches for 2023. Look at the difference between the way Dobbs both selects McBridge as his target and delivers the ball as compared to KM:

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

Look for the Cards to go the old Chuck Knox philosophy of the ‘Ground and Pound’ or 'Ground Chuck' running game. There's a method to their madness of adding so many to the OL. Besides being the 1st HC to install a black QB (James Harris) and break that racial barrier, Knox was known for his relentless devotion to the run game. His run-first philosophy made a star out of Jerome ‘The Bus’ Bettis. Point is, Knox's teams won lots of game with an ‘average’ passing game. Maybe the Cards can copy that, take pressure off KM, and succeed with an average QB.

 

[daves]

Here's a fun Youtube video of all of the Trey McBridge catches for 2023. Look at the difference between the way Dobbs both selects McBridge as his target and delivers the ball as compared to KM:

I looked with an open mind, but don't see much of an accuracy difference; if anything, Murray's passes seemed a bit more accurate (which could be considered damning with faint praise).

McBride's catch %, yards per target, and yards per reception were better with Murray (Games 10-16) than with Dobbs (games 1-8).

 

[QuebecCard]

KM is currently a mid-level average QB. I agree with this Aug 2023 ranking that has him at #14 league-wide:

Kyler Murray's Surprising Rank Among NFL Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray has proven to be a capable NFL starting quarterback when healthy. Where does he rank amongst the league's starters?

lastwordonsports.com

For KM to rise above that characterization, we need the other pieces of the puzzle to step up. For the last four games in 2023, it was the running game that was the superior gear in our O. Our D played with intensity and energy but was still bad. Our WR talent was a mish-mash of players with no real #1.

I fear that with MHJ, KM will revert to force-feeding the ball in the direction of his #1 WR. If we don’t add to our WR room, MHJ will have double coverage rolled his way. KM will make one of his panic throws high to MHJ and get him tangled up with double coverage on his way down to the ground. That’s how DHOP went down, AJ Green knee injury, Fitz playing through his injury at the end. KM still twists his receivers into pretzels with some of his poor throws. I cringe for the receivers when they corkscrew themselves trying to make a completion on one of KM's off-target behind the back and over-the-head hail-mary to avoid the sack throws. Too many KM throws are delivered that lead receivers into the path of defenders bearing down for the big hit. The QB has to deliver the ball but also protect his receiver making the catch.

Here's a fun Youtube video of all of the Trey McBridge catches for 2023. Look at the difference between the way Dobbs both selects McBridge as his target and delivers the ball as compared to KM:

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

Look for the Cards to go the old Chuck Knox philosophy of the ‘Ground and Pound’ or 'Ground Chuck' running game. There's a method to their madness of adding so many to the OL. Besides being the 1st HC to install a black QB (James Harris) and break that racial barrier, Knox was known for his relentless devotion to the run game. His run-first philosophy made a star out of Jerome ‘The Bus’ Bettis. Point is, Knox's teams won lots of game with an ‘average’ passing game. Maybe the Cards can copy that, take pressure off KM, and succeed with an average QB.

Marlin Briscoe (Denver) was the first black QB to start a game in the NFL, a year before James Harris.

The first black QB to start for each NFL team

Who was the first black quarterback to start for every NFL team?

www.si.com

 

[Garthshort]

We went 1-3 over our last four games with a loss to the Whiners, the Bears, and the Seahags. We beat the Eagles. That victory was a combination of JG’s knowledge of his old team, the Cards wanting to rally around their new HC, sub-par play by Hurts, and our ability to hold on to the ball for 39 minutes and 32 first downs.

Over the last four games, the Cards totaled 913 yards passing for a 228.25 ypg average. The league average (all 17 games/all teams) was 218 ypg. That 4 four-game total in passing would have placed us slightly above the league average. The Bengals were at 229 ypg average for the year in passing and finished ranked at 15 out of the 32 teams.

Over the last four games, the Cards totaled 754 yards rushing for a 188.5 ypg average. We put up over 200+ yards vs the Whiners, Eagles, Seahags with ‘only ‘93' vs the Bears. The league average for the year was 112.7 ypg so the Cards were up by 76 yds over the league average with the running game. The four-game average would be #1 if it was extended over a full 17-game schedule. For the year, the Ravens finished #1 at 156 ypg and the Cards finished at #4 with a 139.1 ypg.

What moved the needle of the Card's offense in the last 4 games was the running game (OL and Conner) and not the passing game. KM passed to the league average while our run game was at the very top.

Liked your writeup, but you have to consider that Kyler wasn't throwing to Larry Fitzgerald or MHJ. This year he'll have Marvin and a more experienced Michael.

 

[GimmedaBall]

Marlin Briscoe (Denver) was the first black QB to start a game in the NFL, a year before James Harris.

I should have said that James Harris was the first black QB in the NFL. You should have said that Marlin Briscoe was the first black QB to start a game in the AFL (not the AFC of the NFL but a separate league known as the American Football League.)

The American Football League (AFL) was a major professional American football league that operated for ten seasons from 1960 until 1970, when it merged with the older National Football League (NFL), and became the American Football Conference.

American Football League - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

For those 10 years, the AFL was in direct competition with the NFL for fans, draft picks, etc. The merger was meant to stifle that and gave us the current NFL. The AFL had a more wide-open game and was pass heavy which was pulling away NFL fans from their old run-heavy NFL teams.

 

[GimmedaBall]

I looked with an open mind, but don't see much of an accuracy difference; if anything, Murray's passes seemed a bit more accurate (which could be configured damning with faint praise).

Yes. You got my point---damning with faint praise. McBride's numbers with KM should be way better than those with Dobbs when you consider that Dobbs was brought off the street and started. He didn't have an entire off-season with the playbook and coaching staff. Dobbs opened eyes as to how McBride can be used and KM came in and followed suit.

 

[GimmedaBall]

Liked your writeup, but you have to consider that Kyler wasn't throwing to Larry Fitzgerald or MHJ. This year he'll have Marvin and a more experienced Michael.

I hope you are correct. Would love to see MHJ as ORY with 1,400+ yds and Michael putting up 1,000+ yds as a solid #2.

At some point, we also need to see KM for who he is. He's played with several future HOF WRS including Fitz, DHOP, AJ Green (yes, look up his career stats), his best bud Hollywood, his hand-picked #2 WR Moore,TE Ertz, etc. He's had plenty of superior talent to work with. Now you can blame the OL, the D, etc. It is one of the big moves made by our new FO and HC---they have developed a great OL and run game with Conner. We have an emerging star at TE.

No more excuses---no more accepting average play and sub .500 as the best we are going to get from our QB.

 

[QuebecCard]

I hope you are correct. Would love to see MHJ as ORY with 1,400+ yds and Michael putting up 1,000+ yds as a solid #2.

At some point, we also need to see KM for who he is. He's played with several future HOF WRS including Fitz, DHOP, AJ Green (yes, look up his career stats), his best bud Hollywood, his hand-picked #2 WR Moore,TE Ertz, etc. He's had plenty of superior talent to work with. Now you can blame the OL, the D, etc. It is one of the big moves made by our new FO and HC---they have developed a great OL and run game with Conner. We have an emerging star at TE.

No more excuses---no more accepting average play and sub .500 as the best we are going to get from our QB.

'He's played with' glosses over that Fitz and AJ were at the tail end of their careers, and who can forget AJ not turning his head to a perfectly thrown ball that presaged the debacle to come. Unfortunately, injuries and suspension adversely affected the KM/DHop tandem. So there are reasons, not excuses, for some, if not all, of the past shortcomings.

That said - I expect KM to master the Petzing offence and do good things this season.

 

[legend]

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[kerouac9]

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Y'all Chris Trapasso loved our draft!

 

[GimmedaBall]

'He's played with' glosses over that Fitz and AJ were at the tail end of their careers, and who can forget AJ not turning his head to a perfectly thrown ball that presaged the debacle to come.

The AJ Green brain fart in the endzone was a huge disappointment. I’ve never heard a believable explanation as to what happened. One rationale was that the play was changed at the line and AJ didn’t hear the call and instead proceeded to block his DB out of the play based on the original play call—that makes sense if another WR was going to be the target or if KM was going to go on a designed run. If you look at the replay, you’ll see Card’s #13 cutting toward the area vacated by Green and DB Douglas. KM could have delivered the ball to him for an easy TD since #13 had a few steps on his trailing defender. Even if AJ turned for the ball, Douglas was all over him and in position to either slap the ball away (or draw a penalty). Douglas had been on the Cards roster until cut and signed by the Packers. He probably knew the play call as well as any of the Cards O. He was the wrong guy to throw at. Here's the play, if you can stomach the replay:

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

Green was a big part of the Card’s success on that winning streak and for the 11-6 season (Hopkins was in 10 games and finished 2nd). He played like a future HOF—even though at the end of his career. He led the team in receiving yards with 848, 3 Tds, and 37 first down catches. He’s not the first HOF who missed a game-winning catch.

What is instructive about the play is KM’s reaction after the INT. He goes down to the ground in agony. KM had injured his ankle earlier which may explain his collapse (he took the month of November off and McCoy filled in). Or maybe it was just a temper tantrum at losing (note that there is not sign of a ankle as KM drops back to throw). That reaction tells you all you need to know about KM as a leader. Guaranteed that no one in the entire Cardinal Universe felt worse about the INT than Green. As soon as Douglas secured the catch, the play is over. Even if KM had a broken ankle, it was time to recover the player at the end of the mistake and not fall to the ground and have a temper tantrum and leave a teammate hanging before the entire NFL audience. A leader would have gone to Green—even if he had to limp over---and slapped him on the back and walked with him out of the stadium.

That’s why KM is not ‘the guy.’ It is why so many of his receivers have left town or retired early. Hopkins got his release, even his best bud Hollywood cut his losses and bolted to KC. They all know KM won’t have their back.

 

[Garthshort]

Why this was NOT an objective view:

Kyler was injured and couldn't play in the month of November.
vs.
Kyler took the month of November off.

 

[GimmedaBall]

Kyler was injured and couldn't play in the month of November.
vs.
Kyler took the month of November off.

Is that all you got for a reply??? I stated that he injured his ankle and took the month of November off. Which is exactly what happened. He missed three weeks and the bye week. I didn't say he was faking an injury or was pouting over the loss. He took the month of November off.

Snowflakes melt in the Phoenix sun.

 

[cardncubfan]

Is that all you got for a reply??? I stated that he injured his ankle and took the month of November off. Which is exactly what happened. He missed three weeks and the bye week. I didn't say he was faking an injury or was pouting over the loss. He took the month of November off.

Snowflakes melt in the Phoenix sun.

This "KM had injured his ankle earlier which may explain his collapse (he took the month of November off and McCoy filled in). Or maybe it was just a temper tantrum at losing (note that there is not sign of a ankle as KM drops back to throw)." is not the same as "I stated that he injured his ankle and took the month of November off.".

 

[Harry]

I wouldn't expect it to move the needle much on power rankings because all these picks are still unproven.

Power ratings right after the draft are way too early. Teams have to learn to play as a team. Wait about 4 games into the season. I really liked the Rams draft BTW.

 

[eastcoastDave]

A lot of positive mentions surrounding the Cards draft. Yet, it doesn't seem to have moved the needle much on the Cards place in pre-draft power rankings (at least for some)

Eric Edholm at NFL.com has us at #26

NFL Power Rankings: Who's up/down after draft?

Gary Davenport at BleacherReport has us at #28

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10119006-nfl-power-rankings-where-does-every-team-stand-after-the-2024-nfl-draft

Sanjesh Singh of NBC has the Cards at #25:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10119006-nfl-power-rankings-where-does-every-team-stand-after-the-2024-nfl-draft

Steve Serby of the NY Post has us at #18:

NFL power rankings: Where all 32 teams stand after 2024 draft

The NFL draft finally came and went, which means it is time for the annual Serby Power Rankings.

nypost.com

Dallas Robinson of Pro Football Nework has us at #27:

NFL power rankings: Where all 32 teams stand after 2024 draft

The NFL draft finally came and went, which means it is time for the annual Serby Power Rankings.

nypost.com

Plenty more with similar projections. While I did not expect the Cards to be in the top 10 after the draft, I did expect us to at least be in the middle of the pack with all the draft pick additions. I have my fingers crossed that the Cards are following in the footsteps of the Lions and the way they progressed in the first three years with Campbell as HC: 3 wins, 9 wins, 12 wins. It is our turn to have a 9-8 season should we follow the Lion's blueprint.

I like the Detroit comparison. If it comes to pass, we can expect 8-9 wins. I’ll take that for this year. But maybe we’ll be more like Houston, who was expected to be the No. 2 picker in this draft. I think our draft this year would compare favorable to their draft last year. If we follow that model, we’ll be in the playoffs. And I like that a lot better. I trust this coach/GM combo a lot more that the last regime, so I see brighter skies ahead.

 

[Garthshort]

Power ratings right after the draft are way too early. Teams have to learn to play as a team. Wait about 4 games into the season. I really liked the Rams draft BTW.

Just make sure that Aaron Donald stays retired, and also make sure that Stafford keeps getting older.

 

[Tacticool Nerd]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. I expect a Detroit like improvement this year.

Expecting 8 wins.

 

[GimmedaBall]

All the melting snowflakes in Phoenix and Chandler are not going to make KM 'the guy.' My opinion as a fan is subjective. If you disagree, please post your subjective opinion.

 

[oaken1]

All the melting snowflakes in Phoenix and Chandler are not going to make KM 'the guy.' My opinion as a fan is subjective. If you disagree, please post your subjective opinion.

Kyler Murray may not be "The Guy" ...but he is "Our Guy" ...while we all would love to have a top 5 , multi MVP, future Hall of Famer...we can win with our Guy. We can win a Lombardi with our Guy.

Just as soon as that playoff/clinching game monkey falls off his back.

 

[QuebecCard]

The AJ Green brain fart in the endzone was a huge disappointment. I’ve never heard a believable explanation as to what happened. One rationale was that the play was changed at the line and AJ didn’t hear the call and instead proceeded to block his DB out of the play based on the original play call—that makes sense if another WR was going to be the target or if KM was going to go on a designed run. If you look at the replay, you’ll see Card’s #13 cutting toward the area vacated by Green and DB Douglas. KM could have delivered the ball to him for an easy TD since #13 had a few steps on his trailing defender. Even if AJ turned for the ball, Douglas was all over him and in position to either slap the ball away (or draw a penalty). Douglas had been on the Cards roster until cut and signed by the Packers. He probably knew the play call as well as any of the Cards O. He was the wrong guy to throw at. Here's the play, if you can stomach the replay:

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

Green was a big part of the Card’s success on that winning streak and for the 11-6 season (Hopkins was in 10 games and finished 2nd). He played like a future HOF—even though at the end of his career. He led the team in receiving yards with 848, 3 Tds, and 37 first down catches. He’s not the first HOF who missed a game-winning catch.

What is instructive about the play is KM’s reaction after the INT. He goes down to the ground in agony. KM had injured his ankle earlier which may explain his collapse (he took the month of November off and McCoy filled in). Or maybe it was just a temper tantrum at losing (note that there is not sign of a ankle as KM drops back to throw). That reaction tells you all you need to know about KM as a leader. Guaranteed that no one in the entire Cardinal Universe felt worse about the INT than Green. As soon as Douglas secured the catch, the play is over. Even if KM had a broken ankle, it was time to recover the player at the end of the mistake and not fall to the ground and have a temper tantrum and leave a teammate hanging before the entire NFL audience. A leader would have gone to Green—even if he had to limp over---and slapped him on the back and walked with him out of the stadium.

That’s why KM is not ‘the guy.’ It is why so many of his receivers have left town or retired early. Hopkins got his release, even his best bud Hollywood cut his losses and bolted to KC. They all know KM won’t have their back.

Convince yourself of 'whatever'.

There aren't many who'll buy your laughable, over-the-top premise.

 

[GimmedaBall]

Kyler Murray may not be "The Guy" ...but he is "Our Guy"

Actually, he is 'SK's Guy.'

 

[Tacticool Nerd]

Actually, he is 'SK's Guy.'

Is he on the Arizona Cardinals currently? Then yes he is our "Our Guy".