Early Thoughts On Who Makes The Playoffs

[George O'Brien]

Ranking Wins Losses
1 62 20 Phoenix
2 59 23 San Antonio
3 52 30 Seattle
4 58 24 Dallas
5 51 31 Houston
6 50 32 Sacramento
7 49 33 Denver
8 45 37 Memphis
9 44 38 Minnesota
10 37 45 LA Clippers
11 34 48 LA Lakers
12 34 48 Golden State
13 27 55 Portland
14 26 56 Utah
15 18 64 New Orleans

Even after all the off season moves, I think that six of the top eight teams in the West will return to the playoffs: Phoenix, San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, Sacamento, and Denver.

My guess is that Seattle is not going to make it due to some personnel losses and a coaching change and I'm not wildly enthusiastic about the moves that Memphis has made.

If Baron Davis stays healthy, I think Golden State looks like a stronger team than either the Sonic or the Grizzlies and the other lottery teams. But I'm not sure what to think about the others.

I'm not a big fan of Kwame Brown and he has to come through for the Lakers to make the playoffs. The Wolves have offloaded some guys but have not done much to improve. Utah is not as bad as their record appeared last season, but when a team's main big move was to trade for Greg Ostertag...

In terms of talent, I might be inclined to suggest the Clippers would have a chance... but these are still the Clippers.

I have a lot of respect for Nate McMillian so I can't completely dismiss the Blazers. However, I'm not convinced that management knows what it's doing.

The best that can be said about the Hornets is that they will play to a lot more customers by not having any home games.

 

[Bada0Bing]

1 Spurs – could flip with Suns, deep with one of the best big men in the league
2 Suns – could flip with Spurs, deep with one of the best big men in the league
3 Sacramento – lots of depth down low, SAR and Wells could be nice additions
4 Houston – could put them higher, but TMAC will miss time because of his back
5 Denver – could be dangerous if Camby stays healthy, still lacking a SG
6 Dallas – another key loss this year, and I see Dampier as a big waste of space
7 Golden State – lots of talent, but can it jell together?
8 LA Lakers – Phil will get them back to the playoffs, but not much more
9 Seattle – I just don’t like the makeup of their team
10 Minnesota – One man team without any help for KG
11 Utah – too many injuries last year to get a good analysis of their team
12 Memphis – key losses without any key additions, DS is not the answer at PG
13 LA Clippers – still the Clippers
14 Portland – I don’t see any improvement to their roster
15 New Orleans - trainwreck

 

[PakistaniRambo]

1 San Antonio – I'm a die hard and very optimistic suns fan, but i dont see us beating them..unless we hit a home run w/ that trade exception

2 Phoenix – I dont see anyone in our division that will come even close

3 Denver - They will be pretty good next year, but not as good as their late season run would indicate (in which the suns raped them each and every time). But they will win their division with the most ease..only competition is Twolves, who might not even make playoffs

4 Houston - 2nd best team in their division. the swift pickup is a little overrated (notice i love using this word), but an overall solid pickup. They'll be a little better than last year, plus i think Juwan Howard is coming back.

5 Dallas – they basically replaced finley with christie, so thats a drop off right there. and the most overrated big man in history (dampier) is going to continue to show why he isnt worth that rediculous contract he got, plus he's due for an injury, he's just that kind of player.

6 Sacramento - I really think the offseason moves for the kings has been overrated. SAR is a born loser and Wells...well, he's not the most consistent player on or off the court. Some will ask, how can they stay a 6 seed after adding 2 pieces like this? I really don't think they will be worse than last year, i'm sure they'll be better, but the competition is getting rediculous in the west.

7 Utah - the one team that none of us can peg. they had such high hopes last year, but were injury riddled. If AK47 can stay healthy and they can get someone decent for Harpring I think they're good enough to get a 7 seed. But this is a lot of speculation, and could be replaced by a team like the Clips or Warriors. Who knows...

8 Minnesota - I think last year was more of a funk then anything..but they still wont be that great, especially after losing key pieces in Cassell and Sprewell, who many believe were more of a cancer to the team than anything. they'll sneak into the playoffs.

9 Golden State – They have a nice mix of players and i think they will be good, but will just miss the playoffs.

10 LA Clippers - Another team with a lot of good talent, but i honestly think they've taken a little step backwards from last year, but then again they had some key injuries last year. Another possible team that could possibly sneak into the playoffs.

11 LA Lakers – I really don't see what Phil can do, their roster still blows (btw i think Odom is overrated to say the least). but i honestly like the Kwame Brown trade..he could turn into a beast of a player. lets hope not though.

12 Seattle – I dont know if i'm stubborn or not, but last year i really didn't believe this team was as good as they seemed to be. Losing some key players and their coach could be a crippling blow to this team.

13 Portland – Not sure why Mcmillan wanted to go here, they are going to be terrible, although the future isnt that bad considering Telfair and Outlaw's recent emergences

14 Memphis – They were absolutely terrible at the end of last season, I think thats how they will play the entire season considering the offseason moves they made.

15 New Orleans - The consensus last place pick.

 

[PhxGametime]

1. Suns (72-10)
2. Spurs
3. Nuggets
4. Rockets
5. Kings
6. Mavs
8. Warriors
8. Lakers
8. Sonics (did Radmanovic stay?)



I don't recall, how many players Sonics lost but if Radmanovic is still there, then IMO they still could be better than the Lakers... but those should be the 3 fighting for Playoff berth?

 

[Dustbuster]

Unless I'm mistaken, thus far the only piece of consequence that the Sonics have lost is James, and I'm really not sure how much of a loss he is. They do have a serious lack of big bodies left, though. The fact that almost all of their FA's were restricted is going to work in their favor. Most teams would like to steal Reggie Evans, for example, but I have yet to read of him getting one offer or even that serious of interest. Smart money says that he stays with the Sonics.

I agree that they will drop off this year, but they probably won't end up losing near as many players as they should have. I would be more inclined to think that a few guys will play for the qualifying offer and hit the market as UFAs next year.

Next year's market, as a result, could be a pretty active one.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

The also lost Antonio Daniels who was a huge part of the team. He ran the offense in the 4th quarter.

Like you said Evans is still in limbo, and so are Radmonovich and Murray.


The loss of Nate McMillan will probably play a big enough role too. He had the team playing well above their heads last season.

 

[George O'Brien]

The also lost Antonio Daniels who was a huge part of the team. He ran the offense in the 4th quarter.

Like you said Evans is still in limbo, and so are Radmonovich and Murray.

The loss of Nate McMillan will probably play a big enough role too. He had the team playing well above their heads last season.

That's my take on the Sonics. Last season's roster was made up of the same guys that did not make the playoffs the year before. They had no low post offense and a bunch of role players getting signficiant minutes. Perhaps it's just me, but I think their late season slide was a delayed version of "regression to the mean".

BTW, in the playoffs Daniels averaged 30.1 minutes a game and James averaged 26.8 minutes.

 

[PakistaniRambo]

http://www.hackztor.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=4&mode=&order=0&thold=0

 

[JCSunsfan]

1. Spurs--Until they're knocked out of the #1 position, I've got to leave them there. Adding Finley helps.

2. Suns--I am really trying to be objective here. Amare took it to a new level in the playoffs. Having a starting 2 that will pass him the ball once in a while should only make him better.

3. Houston--Looked good last year, added some pieces where they were weak.

4. Golden State--This team looked poised to explode late last year. I think they will be the surprise team in the west this year. They will be the team that EVERYONE hates to play.

5. Sacramento--Added SAR and other pieces. I don't buy the "SAR is a loser" thing. He has produced wherever he has gone, he just has not been in a good situation. To me, the thing this team lacks is toughness.

6. Denver--Should be right where they were last year. A little health and they will cause problems. Their coach tends to wear on players after a while though, and this gang isn't the Spurs (good guy types).

7. Seattle--They faded toward the end of last year. Losing Daniels was a big deal. They really lack depth.

8. Dallas--Who knows with this team. Its all about how their young players develop.

9. Minnesota--Losing Spree, Cassell is good for chemistry, but chemistry doesn't score points or defend. Outside of KG this team really lacks talent. All those years without picks is starting to show.

10. Lakers--Somehow, you're thinking Phil Jackson will pull a rabbit out of a hat. He always does. Will Kwame Brown suddenly start playing? This team could surprise.

11. Memphis--Nice trades. Its always good to have players who have some talent and really WANT to play for you. Eddie Jones will help. Too much change at the core of this team to rank them higher.

12. Utah--Sorry, I am beginning to think that the 03-04 team was a fluke and last year is the real Utah team. Even a healthy AK47 can't lift them to playoff level. Jerry Sloan might consider taking a break after this year.

13. Clippers--Putting the Clippers down around here is always a safe bet.

14. Portland--Seems like this team is in full rebuilding mode. Headed to lotto land for 2 years.

15. New Orleans--This team was bad BEFORE Katrina. Why is it that some teams perpetually self-destruct in the name of "clearing cap room?" Don't they know that cap room does you no good at all unless you actually SPEND it on someone?

 

[hooper]

I think a lot of people on this board are underestimating the Sonics. The fade or slide at the end of the year that so many bring up was more due to the fact that they were missing their numbers 2,3 & 4 scorers due to injury than anything else. Lewis, Radmanovich and Daniels all missed a fair number of games at the end of the year. I can't think of too many teams that could lose that much firepower and still play great.

They bounced back just fine in the playoffs until injuries hit them again.

I don't think they'll miss the playoffs, but I think they'll probably slide back to a 5 or 6 seed. They've lost some pieces -- McMillan will hurt, Daniels will hurt, James may be addition by subtraction; but let's face it, that team lives and dies with Allen (and Lewis to a lesser extent.) If Allen stays healthy, they'll be fine, if not...

 

[George O'Brien]

I think a lot of people on this board are underestimating the Sonics. The fade or slide at the end of the year that so many bring up was more due to the fact that they were missing their numbers 2,3 & 4 scorers due to injury than anything else. Lewis, Radmanovich and Daniels all missed a fair number of games at the end of the year. I can't think of too many teams that could lose that much firepower and still play great.

They bounced back just fine in the playoffs until injuries hit them again.

I don't think they'll miss the playoffs, but I think they'll probably slide back to a 5 or 6 seed. They've lost some pieces -- McMillan will hurt, Daniels will hurt, James may be addition by subtraction; but let's face it, that team lives and dies with Allen (and Lewis to a lesser extent.) If Allen stays healthy, they'll be fine, if not...

Welcome aboard.

IMHO, the Sonics problems go beyond a few untimely injuries. Offensively they shot only 44.4% from the field (the Suns shot 47.7%). The Sonics shot only 36.5% for three (compared to 39.3% for the Suns.) Defensively, the Sonics let opponents shoot 45.9% while the Suns held their opponents to 44.5%.

The major plus for the Sonics was their rebounding in that they outrebounded their opponents by +3 rebounds a game while the Suns were a -2.0. This presents a problem because Radmanovich is not really a power forward, is a defensive liability and his .1559 rebounds per minute is pathetic. However, their other inside guys are not much help scoring and Daniels was their only other double digit scorer.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Well Radmonovic is going back to the Sonics for the 1 year tender offer. That helps them a little bit although they still don't have a position for him to play.

 

[F-Dog]

1. San Antonio

2. Phoenix

3. Dallas
4. Houston
5. Sacramento

6. Golden State
7. Denver
8. LA Lakers
9. Seattle

10. Memphis
11. Minnesota
12. LA Clippers
13. Utah

14. Portland

15. New Orleans


I'm starting to think about offseason grades again. If I have time, I'll write something up within the next week.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I'm starting to think about offseason grades again. If I have time, I'll write something up within the next week.

That god, we need something to talk about!

 

[Chaplin]

There's always the option of bringing back Team-A-Days...

 

[sunsfn]

1. Spurs
2. Suns
3. Rockets
4. Nuggets
5. Kings
6. Mavs
7. Sonics - Losing coach and Anderson huge losses. But same system with coach being there long time. They need to sign Murray & Evans. Ridnour will play more minutes and Collison has to step up. Big year for Ray Allen. Losing James will hurt some.
But Warriors nor Lakers or anyone else can beat them out. MN has slim chance to make playoffs.

8. Warriors
8. Utah
Lakers - Who are they going to beat?
Minnesota

-

 

[mathbzh]

1. San Antonio
2. Phoenix
3. Dallas
4. Houston
5. Sacramento
6. Denver
7. Golden State
8. Lakers or Seattle

San Antonio should be stronger that the last year. If Duncan stay healthy they will dominate the regular season.

Dallas will really depend on Dirk health/performances.

Houston will be very dangerous if Yao continue to progress (he is still young).

Golden State could be the true surprise if they can play the whole season as they finished the last one. But the lack of a good big man may cost them many victory.

Phoenix, should have less victory in the regular season. But I expect the team to play a better defense. Something crucial during the playoffs.