Expectations for Ayton's Rookie year

[boisesuns]

With all the shots that will be chucked up this year, I could see him average 12-13 boards a game. He'll get a few put back tips per game and rebound a miss or two of his own, plus 8-10 other boards. He's got the size to just grab a few over others and many of our other players will already be on the wings.

Points wise, I think around the 15-17 range. A few lobs per game, put backs, the occasional jumper and post up score. He should dominate many teams "centers" sooner than later.

 

[taz02]

Here is a list of number one picks since 1985 that scored 20 ppg or more their rookie season. Its unlikely Ayton will score 20.

I found it interesting that most of the names on the list are bigs since the perception is that bigs take longer to develop.

I think 16 and 9 for Ayton would be promising.


Blake Griffin
Lebron James
Elton Brand
Tim Duncan
Allen Iverson
Glenn Robinson
Shaq
David Robinson
Patrick Ewing

 

[AzStevenCal]

Here is a list of number one picks since 1985 that scored 20 ppg or more their rookie season. Its unlikely Ayton will score 20.

I found it interesting that most of the names on the list are bigs since the perception is that bigs take longer to develop.

I think 16 and 9 for Ayton would be promising.


Blake Griffin
Lebron James
Elton Brand
Tim Duncan
Allen Iverson
Glenn Robinson
Shaq
David Robinson
Patrick Ewing

I think it's more than "perception" but it doesn't mean that every "big man" takes years to develop. Also, players such as Robinson, Duncan, Ewing, Shaq and Duncan all spent 4 years in college.

Edited for accuracy: Shaq only played 3 years in college.

 

[SirStefan32]

I think Shaq only played three, Brand and Griffin two, and the rest of the bigs played four years in college. They didn't average 20 per game as 19 year olds.

 

[Mainstreet]

I'm going conservative as well.

If Ayton averages something like 12 points, 8 rebounds and 1 block, it will be a solid rookie season.

 

[Hoop Head]

Here's how many rebounds per game our other starters average for reference. I'm listing their career average first and then highest season total second with the year they averaged that also. Ayton may end up averaging 10 rebound a game but it will be out of necessity more than skill. It's going to be rebounding by committee otherwise. We're going to need him to clean up the glass defensively because we really don't have other good rebounders in the lineup. I know TJ has had some good stints rebounding and Jackson did better during the 2nd half of last season also. Ariza can help some but he's only averaged more than 6 once.

Ariza - 4.8 rpg ~ 2013-14 - 6.2
Warren - 4.1 rpg ~ 2017-18 - 5.1 (Averaged 5.1 last 2 years)
Booker - 3.3 rpg ~ 2017-18 - 4.5
Knight - 3.3 rpg ~ 2015-16 - 3.9 (Averaged 3.9 also in 2014-15)

Jackson - 4.6 rpg ~ 2017-18 - 4.6
Bender - 3.7 rpg ~ 2017-18 - 4.4
Chriss - 4.8 rpg ~ 2017-18 - 5.5
Holmes - 4.2 rpg ~ 2016-17 - 5.5

 

[elindholm]

Ayton is 20, not 19. His birthday is July 23. He's about six months older than Anthony Davis was in his rookie season.

Davis had 14 and 8 as a rookie, while battling injuries. Anything less than that for Ayton is a disappointment. He's a long way from a finished product, but he should contend for Rookie of the Year and be, at a minimum, an average starting center by the All-Star Break. He looked shaky in summer league, but so do a lot of guys. Hopefully Ayton has been working hard and is prepared to look like a different player in the exhibition games.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I think Shaq only played three, Brand and Griffin two, and the rest of the bigs played four years in college. They didn't average 20 per game as 19 year olds.

yeah... even as a guy who REALLY wanted Ayton, I think there's going to be a lot of people disappointed if they expect anything close to 20/10.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Ayton is 20, not 19. His birthday is July 23. He's about six months older than Anthony Davis was in his rookie season.

Davis had 14 and 8 as a rookie, while battling injuries. Anything less than that for Ayton is a disappointment. He's a long way from a finished product, but he should contend for Rookie of the Year and be, at a minimum, an average starting center by the All-Star Break. He looked shaky in summer league, but so do a lot of guys. Hopefully Ayton has been working hard and is prepared to look like a different player in the exhibition games.

this is realistic, IMO.

 

[myrondizzo]

15ppg 10rpg

 

[DevonCardsFan]

16 12 and 1.5, he's going to a monster on the boards

 

[Bufalay]

11 pts 6 rbs 44% shooting

 

[Mainstreet]

Here are the rookie expectations from ESPN.

We asked our ESPN Forecast panelists to rank their top choices for the 2018-19 NBA Rookie of the Year.

Here are the results:

Doncic is listed at #1 and Ayton at #2. Jaren Jackson Jr. is rated at #3.

They only list 8 players.

See link below for the rankings of other players.


http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24245975/nba-rookie-year-predictions-espn-summer-forecast

 

[Chaplin]

There's a huge gap between Doncic and Ayton as far as "points".

 

[SirStefan32]

Sure, but it doesn't surprise me. Doncic is far more polished than Ayton right now. He SHOULD be a better player in year one. I think that everyone, outside of the select few in the extreme anti-Doncic camp would agree with that. Theoretically, Doncic should be the better of the two in their rookie year and then the gap should start to close over the next few years.

 

[Mainstreet]

Bagley being rated low at 6a surprised me. Also Knox at 6b was surprising... ahead of Young.

 

[Hoop Head]

Sure, but it doesn't surprise me. Doncic is far more polished than Ayton right now. He SHOULD be a better player in year one. I think that everyone, outside of the select few in the extreme anti-Doncic camp would agree with that. Theoretically, Doncic should be the better of the two in their rookie year and then the gap should start to close over the next few years.

I agree with that but I also think him landing in Dallas is helping his case for an early ROY favorite. For some reason I've seen a few writers suggest that Dallas might be a playoff team if Doncic is good enough but I don't see that happening. They're bad, with or without Doncic, and while he'll help them I don't think he'll move the needle that much. I think the Suns will improve their win total more than the Mavericks improve theirs but I don't think Ayton is the only reason we'll improve ours. Dallas also added DeAndre Jordan as well so they added more than Doncic but not much more.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Bagley being rated low at 6a surprised me. Also Knox at 6b was surprising... ahead of Young.

Both ratings are likely heavily influenced by their play in summer league. I'm not too high on either player but moving up or down on someone based on summer league makes little sense to me especially if they aren't ball-handlers.

 

[Errntknght]

Suns over-under for season wins, LV odds, is 28.5 Good opportunity? I think so.

 

[Mainstreet]

Both ratings are likely heavily influenced by their play in summer league. I'm not too high on either player but moving up or down on someone based on summer league makes little sense to me especially if they aren't ball-handlers.

I do not think summer league play means much. Also I thought Young played well after a slow start. Both Bagley and Young should be fine NBA players.

 

[Chaplin]

Doncic hasn’t played a second against NBA competition.

 

[Mainstreet]

Doncic hasn’t played a second against NBA competition.

I guess this is why the ESPN panel has Doncic rated #1.

 

[Yuma]

Suns over-under for season wins, LV odds, is 28.5 Good opportunity? I think so.

So adding Ariza, Ayton, and Bridges only nets 8 more wins? Even in the West, that seems minimal.

 

[Phrazbit]

So adding Ariza, Ayton, and Bridges only nets 8 more wins? Even in the West, that seems minimal.

And us not tanking anymore and a new, hopefully competent, coaching staff.

 

[Yuma]

I agree with that but I also think him landing in Dallas is helping his case for an early ROY favorite. For some reason I've seen a few writers suggest that Dallas might be a playoff team if Doncic is good enough but I don't see that happening. They're bad, with or without Doncic, and while he'll help them I don't think he'll move the needle that much. I think the Suns will improve their win total more than the Mavericks improve theirs but I don't think Ayton is the only reason we'll improve ours. Dallas also added DeAndre Jordan as well so they added more than Doncic but not much more.

All of that, plus Dallas is openly saying they will play Doncic big minutes. Phoenix is still implying the mentor role with Ayton splitting time with Chandler. From a stats standpoint that hinders Ayton's chances over Doncic's.