Fantasy Football Question

[Garthshort]

I'm in the early stages of getting ready for my FF draft. And in the league I'm in, we play two QB's and because of our scoring system QB's are most valued. Picking eighth in a ten team league, I'll probably get a QB like Ryan or Romo in the first round, but it's my second round pick that I'm worried about.

How would you rate, Wilson, Newton and Kaepernick? I'm assuming Luck will go in the first, and I'm taking RGIII off my board because of his injury.

 

[Gee!]

If you end up with Ryan or Romo with the eighth over all pick, your league sucks.. No.. Matter of fact, can I get a team in your league? I will dominate..

 

[Garthshort]

Gee, you probably say that because you don't know the scoring in our league. We've been in "business" since the late 1980's and as I've said QB's account for most of the scoring. For instance they score points as follows:
Yardage:
1. Over 200 yds. (200-225) = 5 pts
2. 226-250 = 7 pts
3. 251-300 = 10 pts
4. 301-350 = 12 pts
5. 351-400 = 14 pts
6. >400 = 21 pts

For a passing or running td, it's a similar scoring package, i.e. 0-7, 8-25, 26-50 and over 50 with points ranging from 3 to 14. Running backs and receivers have a similar scoring breakdown for td's and they must accumulate a minimum of 50 yds to get yardage credit. Also, it's a PPR league, and on a good week you'll go over 200 points. The loser of one of the five games (ten team league) pays $5 plus .10 a point into the pool. Each of the ten teams start off with a $5 payment and by the EOY there's about $1500 to be divided among the five winners. And the winners then have to pay for the EOY luncheon, so you won't get rich.

Last year the top ten scorers included 8 QB's, AP and Megatron. So tell me who should I pick 8th and 13th? Thanks.

 

[1DS]

I'm in the early stages of getting ready for my FF draft. And in the league I'm in, we play two QB's and because of our scoring system QB's are most valued. Picking eighth in a ten team league, I'll probably get a QB like Ryan or Romo in the first round, but it's my second round pick that I'm worried about.

How would you rate, Wilson, Newton and Kaepernick? I'm assuming Luck will go in the first, and I'm taking RGIII off my board because of his injury.

1- Wilson
2- Newton
3- Kaepernick

 

[Garthshort]

1DS, thanks. Can't wait to see what the Dominator has to say.

 

[1DS]

1DS, thanks. Can't wait to see what the Dominator has to say.

I think Wilson is the safest bet, but also has the ability to give you some monster games. Remember, he threw 26tds as a rookie and his offensive skill players are the best of the bunch.

Newton is still a monster. His rookie year was one for the fantasy books and he's a the #1 goal line running threat. Even with his early season struggles, he righted the ship and put in a good season.

Kaepernick - still a gamble as he only played about half the regular season. He also lost his #1 threat in Crabtree and Delaine Walker, the 49er jack of all trades who was a mismatch nightmare.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

It doesn't matter that the top 8 players were QBs. It doesn't matter that you draft 2 QBs. Ultimately there is almost no difference between this group of guys from a Fantasy Football perspective:

Matt Stafford
Luck
Wilson
RG 3
Romo
Roethlisberger
Manning
Flacco

And the next tier isn't that bad either. Don't look at how many points they score (otherwise kickers would be awesome), look at the drop off from one to the next when you are using whatever projections you want to use.


There is almost no circumstance you should take a QB at the 8th pick. (That would require either Brees, Rodgers, Manning, or Brady to fall to you. Possible but highly unlikely)

You draft the best player available at the 8th pick. My guess is you will be staring at Arian Foster / Ray Rice / Calvin Johnson.

I co drafted a league like this last year with JG's sister. We didn't take a QB until I want to say Round 5. We basically took QBs 16, 24, and 26 on our draft board. BTW, that included Alex Smith.

While everyone else was drafting QBs we ended up with a team with the likes of Ray Rice, Doug Martin, AJ Green, and Dez Bryant

Suffice it to say she dominated her league (I think she lost once all year). The edge that the rest of her team gave her more than covered the minute difference in points in having a below average QB would have.

It is the basic principles of upside down drafting and value based drafting. Don't get caught into "runs" on certain positions. Don't look at total points but point drop offs in your rankings.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

BTW, based on the scoring system you have stated you should pray that Calvin Johnson falls to you.

In a yardage bonus and a PPC league, he is probably the real #1 pick just based on how much better he is from a fantasy football perspective than the next pick.

Remember he only scored 5 TDs last year and STILL put up top numbers. He won't only score 5 TDs this year.

By the same token, I would expect Matthew Stafford to far out perform his draft position just based on the weapons he has. However, I still would not take him until the second round at the earliest.

 

[Duckjake]

Gee, you probably say that because you don't know the scoring in our league. We've been in "business" since the late 1980's and as I've said QB's account for most of the scoring. For instance they score points as follows:
Yardage:
1. Over 200 yds. (200-225) = 5 pts
2. 226-250 = 7 pts
3. 251-300 = 10 pts
4. 301-350 = 12 pts
5. 351-400 = 14 pts
6. >400 = 21 pts

For a passing or running td, it's a similar scoring package, i.e. 0-7, 8-25, 26-50 and over 50 with points ranging from 3 to 14. Running backs and receivers have a similar scoring breakdown for td's and they must accumulate a minimum of 50 yds to get yardage credit. Also, it's a PPR league, and on a good week you'll go over 200 points. The loser of one of the five games (ten team league) pays $5 plus .10 a point into the pool. Each of the ten teams start off with a $5 payment and by the EOY there's about $1500 to be divided among the five winners. And the winners then have to pay for the EOY luncheon, so you won't get rich.

Last year the top ten scorers included 8 QB's, AP and Megatron. So tell me who should I pick 8th and 13th? Thanks.

This is one of the two reasons I quit playing fantasy football. That is just way too confusing for me. I miss the old days where you had a QB, RB, TE, 2WRs and a kicker and got 6 points for each TD and whatever points your kicker scored and that's it. Whoever had the most points won.

Of course it was so long ago that you didn't know how you did on Sunday until you got the newspaper Monday morning with the box scores.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Draft QB's later. Just look at who you're talking about in Wilson and Kaepernick. I doubt those guys were even drafted last year. Get studs at the other position(s) and a QB drafted later will emerge. A good sleeper this year may be Tannehill.

 

[Gee!]

1DS, thanks. Can't wait to see what the Dominator has to say.

doesn't sound like a league I would want to be in.

 

[BigRedRage]

doesn't sound like a league I would want to be in.

its an internet league, you cant play it on the streets while watching the game

 

[Garthshort]

They call it Fantasy football for a reason. Most of you and the so-called experts have RB's going at the top of the Draft along with Megatron. But as we all know:
1. QB is the most important player on the team.
2. QB is the highest paid player on the team.
3. The NFL is a passing, not running, league.

IMO, FF should become more like real FB by changing their scoring system. JMO.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

They call it Fantasy football for a reason. Most of you and the so-called experts have RB's going at the top of the Draft along with Megatron. But as we all know:
1. QB is the most important player on the team.
2. QB is the highest paid player on the team.
3. The NFL is a passing, not running, league.

IMO, FF should become more like real FB by changing their scoring system. JMO.

Sigh...

If you don't want advice, don't ask.

After the top 4 QBs, the Point Per Game difference between QBs is marginal. So you can make whatever scoring system you want, but you are right the NFL is a passing league so absent of pure garbage (See Cardinals last year), all QBs score at a decent rate.

This is simply not true for RBs and WRs. People aren't saying to take only RBs and WRs. People are saying to stock up on elite talent at positions rather than settle on mediocrity.

I would highly suggest you read some articles on value based drafting. Here is a great article on it from the #1 fantasy football site around:

http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm

This is the most important line though:

The Principle: The value of a player is determined not by the number of points he scores, but by how much he outscores his peers at his particular position.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I also missed that this was a 10 team league. That makes it especially awful to take a QB at pick 8

Let's say that EVERY team drafts a QB in the first 3 rounds.

No one is going to draft a back up QB til probably at least round 8.

Looking at my QB rankings you would have some combination of these guys (ranked 14-18) to pick in rounds 6 and 7

Eli Manning
Andy Dalton
Joe Flacco
Phillip Rivers
Matt Schaub


Now let's say you decide to draft 2 QBs right away. QBs at #8 will be the 7 - 10 range

Stafford
Luck
Kaepernick
Wilson

The difference in my projections between Luck and Schaub (QB #8 and QB #18) is 300 yards and 4 TDs

Or over a 16 game schedule 18 yards per game and 0.25 TDs

It is minimal.