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http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2007/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=2892330
If you talk to a scouting director the day after a draft ends and ask him how he felt the draft went for his club, you'll get some variation of the answer, "We'll see in five years." So let's step in the way-back machine and evaluate the 2002 draft, five years on. The book isn't quite closed on some of the first-round draft picks from 2002, but enough time has passed for some trends to become apparent and for us to label some picks as obvious busts.
The pitchers
Sixteen pitchers were selected in the first round of the 2002 MLB Rule 4 draft. Of those 16, eight suffered major injuries that cost them all or most of a professional season, and only Cole Hamels has developed as expected, with Joe Saunders becoming an up-and-down guy but never fully recovering from his injury. Two more -- Zack Greinke and Derick Grigsby-- missed significant time due to emotional problems. To make matters worse, the 31st and 32nd overall picks, Greg Miller (Dodgers) and Luke Hagerty (Cubs) blew out their arms, and to this point neither has reached the majors.
Of the six who didn't get hurt or miss time for other reasons, Scott Kazmir, Matt Cain and Jeff Francis are the gems. Kazmir keeps flashing ace potential but hasn't improved his control as the Devil Rays have hoped; Francis has average stuff but throws strikes, and has pitched well in a very difficult environment for three years. Cain actually did miss half a year in the minors after a comebacker fractured a bone in his elbow; he's gotten off to a disappointing start in 2007 but was dominant in 2006. Joe Blanton has proven himself a durable innings-eater in Oakland. Jeremy Guthrie seems to have found himself with Leo Mazzone. That's a pretty good set of five arms, and only Royce Ring -- who was never any good to begin with -- ruins the bowl of apples.
So out of 16 pitchers, seven (or six, if you don't count Saunders) turned out to be worthy of their selections, and Greinke has a chance to eventually make it eight.
The hitters
Prince Fielder and Nick Swisher are the only hitters from the first round who've become stars; B.J. Upton and James Loney might join them, as could Jeremy Hermida if he ever gets healthy. Jeff Francoeur and Khalil Greene are everyday players, with Francoeur showing star potential while Greene has struggled to hit his weight. Five other hitters taken in the first round never reached the majors; Russ Adams did but didn't pan out; and the last hitter taken (John Mayberry Jr.) didn't sign.
The stiffs
Whether the causes were injuries or ineffectiveness, it is clear that nearly half of the players taken in the first round have been busts:
* No. 1: Bryan Bullington, Pittsburgh. A bad selection at the time -- GM Dave Littlefield said the club projected him as a "No. 3 starter," which isn't exactly what you're looking for with the first overall pick -- that got worse when he blew out his arm.
* No. 3: Chris Gruler, Cincinnati. Blew his shoulder out almost immediately after signing. Out of baseball.
* No. 5: Clint Everts, Montreal. Struggled to throw strikes, then blew his elbow out and hasn't fully recovered.
* No. 8: Scott Moore, Detroit. Might have a chance to be a bench guy in the majors, but he's moved to third base and doesn't have the bat to support it.
* No. 10: Drew Meyer, Texas. Another bad selection at the time, Meyer was a low-ceiling, minimal-bat shortstop drafted while Alex Rodriguez was still manning the position in Arlington.
* No. 14: Russ Adams, Toronto. A college second baseman moved to shortstop in the pros; the move didn't stick and Adams hasn't hit.
* No. 18: Royce Ring, Chicago White Sox. Taking a lefty specialist in the first round is a bad idea. Taking an overweight one is a terrible idea.
* No. 20: Denard Span, Minnesota. Span turned down just over $2 million from Colorado in an offer for a predraft deal; he fell all the way to the 20th pick and cost himself around $800,000. He really hasn't hit in the pros and has zero power.
* No. 21: Bobby Brownlie, Chicago Cubs. Brownlie came into his junior spring as a consensus top-10 guy, but struggled with shoulder soreness. He blew it out completely, and now is out of baseball.
* No. 26: John McCurdy, Oakland. Free-swinging shortstop who hit a bunch of home runs in a tiny home park in college. Never hit in the pros.
* No. 27: Sergio Santos, Arizona. Seen as a big overdraft at the time, Santos hasn't done anything to respond to his critics. Hasn't hit in several tries at Double-A; he was a throw-in to the Troy Glaus deal.
* No. 28: John Mayberry Jr., Seattle. Mayberry never signed with Seattle; he was asking for $3 million, Seattle took him but didn't offer close to that number and he went to Stanford. Texas took him in the first round in 2005 and he's been so-so in its system, but doesn't look like a star.
* No. 29: Derick Grigsby, Houston. The sun rose in the East and Houston took the hardest thrower on the board with its pick. Grigsby had zero control and eventually missed time due to emotional problems.
* No. 30: Ben Fritz, Oakland. Ineffective when he wasn't hurt.
That's 14 of 30, and you could argue for the inclusion of Saunders, Greene, and Hermida as well.
The rest of the 2002 draft
Sandwich round (11 picks): Only Mark Teahen (Oakland) has had any major league value here. This is where the infamous Jeremy Brown selection occurred; Dan Meyer (Atlanta) also went here and had a lot of promise before hurting his shoulder 18 minutes after he was traded to Oakland.
Second round: Brian McCann wins this round in a landslide. Other solid major leaguers taken here include David Bush (Toronto), Jonathan Broxton (Dodgers) and Jesse Crain (Minnesota). Fred Lewis (San Francisco), Joey Votto (Cincinnati), Jon Lester (Boston), and Mitch Talbot (Houston) are all on the cusp of becoming big league regulars or better. Micah Owings (Colorado) was selected here but didn't sign, allegedly telling the Rockies that God told him not to sign for under $1 million.
Third round: Curtis Granderson is the only big league regular to come out of the third round, other than Elijah Dukes (Tampa Bay), a first-round talent who fell all the way here because of makeup concerns that I would say turned out to be well-founded. The Rockies' pick in this round, Harvard right-hander Ben Crockett, is now interning for the Red Sox.
Fourth round: Josh Johnson (Florida), the 2006 NL ERA champ, and Rich Hill (Cubs) are the only regulars here, although a few others have gotten big league time: Jeff Baker (Colorado), Lance Cormier (Arizona) and Kevin Correia (San Francisco). Boston's pick, right-hander Chris Smith, hurt his arm in a dune buggy accident and hasn't been the same since.
Fifth round: Nothing to see here. Baltimore's Hayden Penn still has a chance to be a solid big leaguer, but it's not likely to come in or near the state of Maryland.
Sixth round: The value round of this draft, the sixth round produced John Maine (Orioles), Pat Neshek (Minnesota) and Scott Olsen (Florida), as well as sometime prospect Cody Haerther (Cardinals) and at-least-he-got-to-the-majors guy Brad Eldred (Pittsburgh).
The best of the rest includes Matt Capps (Pittsburgh, seventh round), Jason Hammel (Tampa Bay, 10th), Howie Kendrick (Angels, 10th), Matt Lindstrom (Mets, 10th), Joel Zumaya (Detroit, 11th), Ryan Shealy (Colorado, 11th), Brad Thompson (St. Louis, 16th), Brandon McCarthy (17th) and one of the best players in the entire draft, Chipola Junior College second baseman Russ Martin (Dodgers, 17th). Seventeenth-rounder Scott Mathieson (Phillies) could join this list if he recovers from Tommy John surgery that has him out for 2007; if he does, it would make the 17th round one of the best of any round after the second.
What might have been
In addition to Owings, a number of future stars were taken later in the 2002 draft but didn't sign. The Twins took Adam Lind (eighth round) and future first-rounder Jeff Clement (12th). Tampa Bay also took a pair of guys (Mike Pelfrey in the 15th and Jacoby Ellsbury in the 23rd) they'd probably like to take another run at, while their sixth-round pick, Cesar Ramos, was a first-rounder in 2005 and is now a minor prospect in the Padres' system. Detroit took Anthony Reyes (a very tough sign) in the 13th round. Oakland took current Cleveland prospect Trevor Crowe in the 20th round, while Seattle took current Oakland outfielder Travis Buck in the 23rd. Kansas City took Cesar Carrillo, a 2005 first-rounder who is out for 2007 after Tommy John surgery, in the 33rd round. The Dodgers took Luke Hochevar in the 39th round, only to take him again in 2005's supplemental round, signing him neither time. And in the 40th round, Colorado took Matt Garza, while Milwaukee took Hunter Pence. One special case is Cincinnati's 23rd-round selection, Nick Markakis, taken as a draft-and-follow; Markakis threw and hit so well the following spring that his price tag rose beyond anything the Reds were willing to pay.
The five best drafts
1. Devil Rays: B.J. Upton in the first round was a gift from the baseball gods, since by all rights he should have gone No. 1 overall to Pittsburgh. But they took a shot at Dukes in the third round -- regardless of his off-field problems, he's a big talent, and unlike most of the third-round selections from that year, he made the big leagues -- and landed Hammel in the 10th. Their fourth-round pick, Wes Bankston, should also get at least a cup of coffee.
2. Marlins: Hermida has been a disappointment because of his inability to stay on the field, but I'll give him some benefit of the doubt due to his age and ability. Josh Johnson in the fourth was a steal, and Scott Olsen (sixth) is already an established starter with a big upside. They also picked up fringe player Eric Reed out of Texas A&M in the ninth.
3. Giants: The Brian Sabean era is not commonly associated with solid drafting, but the Giants might have nabbed more big leaguers in this draft than any other club. First-rounder Matt Cain is very good, with star potential; second-rounder Fred Lewis should be an everyday player; and they picked up Dan Ortmeier (third), Kevin Correia (fourth) and Clay Hensley (eighth) along the way.
4. Dodgers: They could move further up this list if they ever get around to putting James Loney in their lineup. Add Broxton and Martin to Loney, and the Dodgers could end up with three above-average players from one draft.
5. Mets: The Mets' haul really comes down to Kazmir and Lindstrom, but unlike a lot of clubs, the Mets didn't have picks in the second and third rounds, dramatically reducing their expected return. They got their first pick right and grabbed another big leaguer deeper in the draft. The next-best alternative would be Detroit, which got more total value with Granderson and Zumaya, but whiffed on its first pick.
The five worst drafts
1. Cubs: Their major league haul from this draft is Rich Hill and 14th-rounder Rocky Cherry. True, other clubs got less from their 2002 drafts (more on them in a moment), but none of them had the six extra picks that the Cubs had that year: three supplementals, plus one extra pick in the second, third and fourth rounds. None of their first eight selections has reached the majors.
2. Mariners: T.J. Bohn, their 30th round pick, received all of 14 at-bats in 2006. That's the major league output of the Mariners' 2002 draft. They took the unsignable Mayberry in the first round, and also didn't sign their third-rounder (Eddy Martinez-Esteve, now stalled out at Double-A for the Giants). And in the second round, they took a player named Womack, which is never a good idea.
3. Astros: This draft appears to be the only one that has yet to produce a big leaguer. Second-rounder Talbot, traded to Tampa Bay for Aubrey Huff, should get there soon and should be good, but that's it. Grigsby's career stalled because he had emotional issues, but he was a huge gamble in the Tony Pluta/Robert Stiehl mold … and if you haven't heard of those two top Houston draft picks, that's all you need to know.
4. Diamondbacks: Chris Snyder (second) and Cormier (fourth) are the total haul, so the Snakes got two big leaguers, neither of whom is good. The pick of Santos in the first round was one of the bigger overdrafts of 2002.
5. Rangers: C.J. Wilson in the 17th and Aaron Myette in the 41st, and that's it. The Rangers had the 10th overall pick, then didn't pick again until the sixth round, but they completely blew their first-round selection.
High school vs. college
The 2002 draft was chronicled in "Moneyball," a love letter of sorts to Oakland's "Better Scouting Through Technology" process. The book itself contributed to a significant shift toward college players (especially in the first round) in the following three drafts, but in 2002 the college-heavy approach was employed by only a few teams. While one draft isn't definitive, let's see how the two groups of players stacked up in 2002.
The best players to come out of the college class include:
* Jeff Francis (first round, Colorado)
* Nick Swisher (first round, Oakland)
* Jesse Crain (second round, Minnesota)
* Curtis Granderson (third round, Detroit)
* John Maine (sixth round, Baltimore)
* Pat Neshek (sixth round, Minnesota)
The best players to come out of the high school class include:
* Prince Fielder (first round, Milwaukee)
* Scott Kazmir (first round, New York)
* Cole Hamels (first round, Philadelphia)
* James Loney (first round, L.A. Dodgers)
* Matt Cain (first round, San Francisco)
* Jonathan Broxton (second round, LA Dodgers)
* Brian McCann (second round, Atlanta)
* Joel Zumaya (11th round, Detroit)
The college crop also included Joe Blanton, Jeremy Guthrie, David Bush, Rich Hill and Ryan Shealy. The high school crop also included B.J. Upton, Jeff Francoeur, Jon Lester, Elijah Dukes, Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen and Matt Capps. That looks like a rout for the high school ranks, doesn't it?
The one spot where the college players do win out in the '02 draft is in producing big leaguers -- excluding cup-of-coffee guys like T.J. Bohn and Cherry. By my rough count, there have been 30 "significant" big leaguers from college players taken in 2002 versus 21 from the high school pool. Of course, Votto, Bankston, Haerther and Talbot are all on the come, and I suppose the eternal optimist would argue it's too soon to count the Clint Everts of the world out, so there's still time for that ratio to get closer to 1-to-1.
As a side note, junior college players are usually left out of any look at the wisdom of taking college versus high school players in the draft because so few of them sign. However, the 2002 draft produced a strong crop of JC players. Russ Martin and Howie Kendrick lead a pack that also includes McCarthy, Thompson, Lindstrom, Hammel and Dana Eveland.
Oh, and as for the draft class so lovingly described in "Moneyball"? Well, the A's hit on their top two picks, Swisher and Blanton, and sandwich pick Teahen is an everyday player from whom the A's extracted value in a trade. But four of the A's other seven picks in the first and sandwich rounds returned zero value, and only third-rounder Bill Murphy (traded to Florida for pitcher Mark Redman) had any value at all of anyone else the A's took from the second round on.
Dave Littlefield
