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A 1-11 start to SEC play has Florida on the cusp of missing the NCAA Baseball Tournament after reaching the College World Series in back-to-back years, but there's still a path to the playoffs and it starts with a sweep against Missouri.
Technically, it started with a series win over Florida State on Tuesday, but the Gators have already knocked over the first domino, so now all eyes are on Florida vs. Mizzou. The Tigers are the only team with a worse record against the SEC at 0-12, and the Gators can't afford to drop a game to them this weekend. Of course, sweeping any SEC team is easier said than done, even if it's at the bottom of the conference.
Florida is dealing with the same injuries it has for most of the year. Left-handed starter Pierce Coppola has missed most of his redshirt junior season and doesn't appear any closer to a return. Left-handed reliever Frankie Menendez is out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and second baseman Cade Kurland is also officially done for the season.
Kyle Jones isn't on the injury report this week, but that could be a sign of a redshirt attempt rather than a return. The newest name on the availability report is senior outfielder Ty Evas, who has had a tough go of it at the plate but played on Tuesday. Sante Fe transfer Matthew Jenkins is also unavailable and has been for several weeks.
NOTES: Liam Peterson is the most polished arm in Florida's weekend rotation, but he hasn't fared well against the SEC. Peterson's given up 12 earned runs over 13 2/3 innings in conference play and struggled with command last week, walking five against Vanderbilt. The strikeout stuff is still there, but the results aren't what they should be. This could be a get-right game for him against the conference's worst offense (.231 AVG).
Brady Kehlenbrink isn't Missouri's typical Game 1 starter, and he's only made three starts over the past three weeks for Missouri. But a left-handed matchup plays well against Florida's lineup and the Tigers are down one starter in Ian Lohse, while Kadden Drew (5.63) and Wil Libbert (6.75) both have elevated ERAs over 30-plus innings apiece. Kehlenbrink is a fastball-slider guy with some carry on the former pitch and late break on the latter. Originally committed to LSU, the No. 2 ranked pitcher in Missouri from the class of 2024 ended up staying in-state.
NOTES: Aidan King has had a few bumps in the road in recent weeks, allowing five runs against Georgia and walking four through 3 1/3 innings against Ole Miss, but he seemed to get back on track against Vanderbilt last week with five innings of two-run ball and just two walks. There's still a lot to like about King's game, but he's a freshman who is still developing. The fastball is going to play most of the time, but teams are hunting it more than ever now that there's college film available on King.
Kaden Jacobi is another bullpen guy who is getting a chance to start games for Missouri, going in each of the last two weekends. He has a four-pitch mix, featuring a sinking fastball in the low 90s, a low-80s slider, a high-80s changeup and a high-70s curve. Results haven't been great this year for him, allowing 23 runs over the last 10 innings, but he did put together a nice relief appearance against LSU. This is a guy Florida should be able to jump all over and knock out early.
NOTES: With Jake Clemente moved into a bullpen role, Florida's starting options on Saturday are Billy Barlow and Alex Philpott. The decision likely rests on whether either is used in the first two games of the series, but Philpott has been the more recent pick when both are rested. A combination of both arms for multiple innings would be ideal.
Missouri is also waiting to make a call for Saturday's starter. Freshman lefty Wil Libbert is a weekend regular and not on the injury list. He has the second-lowest ERA of any starter this year for Missouri, so that's the best guess we can make without inside knowledge on the team.
The two lineup regulars with an OPS over .900 against the SEC for Missouri are junior shortstop Jackson Lovich (1.135) and junior second baseman Keegan Knutson (.965). Lovich is listed as probably on the availability report, so expect him to play. He's the team leader in average (.368), hits (39) home runs (7) and RBI (33). Lovich doesn't walk a ton, but he can put the bat on the ball.
The Tigers will be without Kaden Peer, who is second on the team in hits with 31 and on-base percentage (.436). Catcher/first baseman Mateo Serna has some pop with six homers and 30 RBI, but he's struggled to hit against SEC arms this year.
THURSDAY (7 p.m. EDT)
FRIDAY (6:30 EDT)
SATURDAY (5 p.m. EDT)
* Watch links go directly to game feed
GAME 1: Florida, 7-3
GAME 2: Florida, 11-1
GAME 3: Florida, 8-6
Series prediction: A sweep won't be easy but it is necessary this weekend. Florida has the pitching advantage in the first two games, but the third game could be a toss up with both bullpens being used. Florida gets it done, though, 3-0.
Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, as well as Bluesky, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.
This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: Florida Gators baseball hosts Missouri Tigers for weekend series
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Technically, it started with a series win over Florida State on Tuesday, but the Gators have already knocked over the first domino, so now all eyes are on Florida vs. Mizzou. The Tigers are the only team with a worse record against the SEC at 0-12, and the Gators can't afford to drop a game to them this weekend. Of course, sweeping any SEC team is easier said than done, even if it's at the bottom of the conference.
Florida is dealing with the same injuries it has for most of the year. Left-handed starter Pierce Coppola has missed most of his redshirt junior season and doesn't appear any closer to a return. Left-handed reliever Frankie Menendez is out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and second baseman Cade Kurland is also officially done for the season.
Kyle Jones isn't on the injury report this week, but that could be a sign of a redshirt attempt rather than a return. The newest name on the availability report is senior outfielder Ty Evas, who has had a tough go of it at the plate but played on Tuesday. Sante Fe transfer Matthew Jenkins is also unavailable and has been for several weeks.
Projected Starting Lineup: Florida Gators
| Pos. | Player Name | AVG | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | HR | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Luke Heyman | .317 | .413 | .545 | 101 | 22 | 32 | 6 | 21 |
| 1B | Brendan Lawson | .313 | .438 | .565 | 115 | 26 | 36 | 8 | 37 |
| 2B | Justin Nadeau | .258 | .421 | .382 | 89 | 21 | 23 | 2 | 12 |
| 3B | Bobby Boser | .301 | .396 | .588 | 136 | 39 | 41 | 11 | 37 |
| SS | Colby Shelton | .364 | .427 | .600 | 140 | 31 | 51 | 6 | 27 |
| LF | Blake Cyr | .290 | .384 | .439 | 107 | 22 | 31 | 4 | 15 |
| CF | Hayden Yost | .290 | .392 | .410 | 100 | 18 | 29 | 1 | 20 |
| RF | Ashton Wilson | .147 | .310 | .235 | 34 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| DH-L | Brody Donay | .330 | .464 | .690 | 100 | 27 | 33 | 9 | 21 |
| DH-R | Landon Stripling | .256 | .386 | .378 | 82 | 19 | 21 | 2 | 14 |
Probable Starters: Game 1 - Thursday (7 p.m. ET)
| Team | Pitcher | Record | ERA |
| FLORIDA | RHP Liam Peterson | 4-2 | 3.63 |
| MISSOURI | LHP Brady Kehlenbrink | 0-2 | 9.64 |
NOTES: Liam Peterson is the most polished arm in Florida's weekend rotation, but he hasn't fared well against the SEC. Peterson's given up 12 earned runs over 13 2/3 innings in conference play and struggled with command last week, walking five against Vanderbilt. The strikeout stuff is still there, but the results aren't what they should be. This could be a get-right game for him against the conference's worst offense (.231 AVG).
Brady Kehlenbrink isn't Missouri's typical Game 1 starter, and he's only made three starts over the past three weeks for Missouri. But a left-handed matchup plays well against Florida's lineup and the Tigers are down one starter in Ian Lohse, while Kadden Drew (5.63) and Wil Libbert (6.75) both have elevated ERAs over 30-plus innings apiece. Kehlenbrink is a fastball-slider guy with some carry on the former pitch and late break on the latter. Originally committed to LSU, the No. 2 ranked pitcher in Missouri from the class of 2024 ended up staying in-state.
Probable Starters: Game 2 - Friday (6:30 p.m. ET)
| Team | Pitcher | Record | ERA |
| FLORIDA | RHP Aidan King | 3-1 | 3.12 |
| MISSOURI | RHP Kaden Jacobi | 3-2 | 9.93 |
NOTES: Aidan King has had a few bumps in the road in recent weeks, allowing five runs against Georgia and walking four through 3 1/3 innings against Ole Miss, but he seemed to get back on track against Vanderbilt last week with five innings of two-run ball and just two walks. There's still a lot to like about King's game, but he's a freshman who is still developing. The fastball is going to play most of the time, but teams are hunting it more than ever now that there's college film available on King.
Kaden Jacobi is another bullpen guy who is getting a chance to start games for Missouri, going in each of the last two weekends. He has a four-pitch mix, featuring a sinking fastball in the low 90s, a low-80s slider, a high-80s changeup and a high-70s curve. Results haven't been great this year for him, allowing 23 runs over the last 10 innings, but he did put together a nice relief appearance against LSU. This is a guy Florida should be able to jump all over and knock out early.
Probable Starters: Game 3 - Saturday (5 p.m. EDT)
| Team | Pitcher | Record | ERA |
| FLORIDA | TBA | TBA | TBA |
| MISSOURI | TBA | TBA | TBA |
NOTES: With Jake Clemente moved into a bullpen role, Florida's starting options on Saturday are Billy Barlow and Alex Philpott. The decision likely rests on whether either is used in the first two games of the series, but Philpott has been the more recent pick when both are rested. A combination of both arms for multiple innings would be ideal.
Missouri is also waiting to make a call for Saturday's starter. Freshman lefty Wil Libbert is a weekend regular and not on the injury list. He has the second-lowest ERA of any starter this year for Missouri, so that's the best guess we can make without inside knowledge on the team.
Other Players to Watch
The two lineup regulars with an OPS over .900 against the SEC for Missouri are junior shortstop Jackson Lovich (1.135) and junior second baseman Keegan Knutson (.965). Lovich is listed as probably on the availability report, so expect him to play. He's the team leader in average (.368), hits (39) home runs (7) and RBI (33). Lovich doesn't walk a ton, but he can put the bat on the ball.
The Tigers will be without Kaden Peer, who is second on the team in hits with 31 and on-base percentage (.436). Catcher/first baseman Mateo Serna has some pop with six homers and 30 RBI, but he's struggled to hit against SEC arms this year.
Series History
| OVERALL | 31-8 |
| AT HOME | 19-1 |
| AWAY | 11-7 |
| NEUTRAL | 1-0 |
Follow the Action
THURSDAY (7 p.m. EDT)
- Watch: SEC Network
- Listen: ESPN 98.1FM/850AM WRUF
- Live Stream: fuboTV (try it free)
FRIDAY (6:30 EDT)
- Watch: SEC Network+
- Listen: ESPN 98.1FM/850AM WRUF
- Live Stream: fuboTV (try it free)
SATURDAY (5 p.m. EDT)
- Watch: SEC Network
- Listen: ESPN 98.1FM/850AM WRUF
- Live Stream: fuboTV (try it free)
* Watch links go directly to game feed
Predictions
GAME 1: Florida, 7-3
GAME 2: Florida, 11-1
GAME 3: Florida, 8-6
Series prediction: A sweep won't be easy but it is necessary this weekend. Florida has the pitching advantage in the first two games, but the third game could be a toss up with both bullpens being used. Florida gets it done, though, 3-0.
Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, as well as Bluesky, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.
This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: Florida Gators baseball hosts Missouri Tigers for weekend series
Continue reading...
