For Three

[azirish]

The Suns three point shooting is only 37% this season compared to 39.9% for all of last season. This is due in part because of not having a healthy Bell (who wasn't "on" even before going out) and somewhat less effectiveness by Barbosa who is shooting only 38.8% compared to last season's 43.4% for three.

The experiment with having Hill shoot threes seems to be coming to an end. After 3 of 4 in the Knicks game, he's taken only 7 attempts in the last five games (hitting just 2). So while he was 1 of 2 against the Clips, it looks like that is about all the threes he's likely to taking per game.

By contrast, Marion's three point shooting percentage has really dropped off a lot after a strong start. In the last 9 games, Marion has hit only 6 of 31 attempts for 19.3%. What is especially distressing is that Marion hits over 60% of his shots inside the arc.

 

[dodie53]

only 37% from 3s?
and we have an 8 game winning streak?
nice.

 

[BC867]

only 37% from 3s?
and we have an 8 game winning streak?
nice.

Nice against so-so teams. Champion of the So-so Teams isn't so nice.

 

[devilalum]

Nice against so-so teams. Champion of the So-so Teams isn't so nice.

They're almost all "So-So' teams so what's your point?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Nice against so-so teams. Champion of the So-so Teams isn't so nice.

I would hardly call Orlando a so-so team.

 

[azirish]

IMHO, the Suns players should focus on finding the open man rather than taking the first three point shot that comes available. Make the opponent's defense work and make sure the three is WIDE open, with time to get the feet set and not rush the motion.

 

[BC867]

They're almost all "So-So' teams so what's your point?

There'll be not-so-almost-So-So-teams in the post season.

Our record, so far, is great. As long as we're on a long-term (1/2 year) plan to dominate the playoffs.

That would be greater. And that was my point.

 

[LavaLamp2]

Is the 3-point shot still a credible threat at 37% 3FG%? If so, maybe it does not matter much that it is down from 39%.

Also, where do the Suns rank in number of threes taken this season? Is there a significant number of points lost in the 3FG% drop?

 

[azirish]

Is the 3-point shot still a credible threat at 37% 3FG%? If so, maybe it does not matter much that it is down from 39%.

Last season the Suns were at 39.9%. Currently the Suns are on pace for another 2000 attempt season for an average of 24.4 attempts per game, for just over 2 ppg.

24.4 * 3 * 37% = 27.1 ppg
24.4 * 3 *40% = 29.3 ppg

The real issue is how the percentage is generated. If two guys are shooting the same number of shots and one guy is hitting 30% and the other 40%, the result may be an average of 35% but the defense knows who to guard.

 

[Covert Rain]

If the Suns shoot only around at a 37% clip (from 3 point land) but play better defense and rebound more, I will take that. I don't mind a worse 3 point shooting percentage if this team is better defensively. I think some are reading too much into a team that is still near the top in offensive output.

 

[Rab]

It's amazing how Grant Hill's production has pretty much doubled since he stopped running to the three point line.

As far as the team percentage goes, I think it'll get a little better as Bell tries to get back. LB struggled in the first few games, but he has picked it up.

 

[Stargazer]

If the difference between 39.9% and 37% is only 2 points a game, I'm not sure how much this matters. Yes, it might mean a game or two, plus or minus, but in terms of affecting how teams defend the Suns, I don't think anybody is going to revamp their defense to account for a couple of percentage points. I agree, though, that what matters for opposing team defenses isn't how the team as a whole shoots, but how each individual player shoots, as they will use that information to decide whom to defend and how.

 

[buttsR4rebounding]

What about the much ballyhooed Amare 3 point range? What has been his shooting percentage behind the arc so far? Thanks.

 

[nowagimp]

If the Suns shoot only around at a 27% clip (from 3 point land) but play better defense and rebound more, I will take that. I don't mind a worse 3 point shooting percentage if this team is better defensively. I think some are reading too much into a team that is still near the top in offensive output.

27% would be a disaster for a small team trying to spread the floor in order to score in the paint. The lowest 3pt percentage in the NBA is 30-31%. The spurs couldnt survive even 30% accuracy from 3 and survive the playoffs, and they have the big guys to rebound and play better interior defense.

 

[azirish]

There is simply no way that guys shooting below 33% should ever be taking three point shots.

 

[Errntknght]

There is simply no way that guys shooting below 33% should ever be taking three point shots.

Wrong... there are situations where a guy who has never made a three in his career should take such a shot. Naturally a team should do its best to avoid such situations but they do happen, as we all know.

All shots with a significant level of difficulty become more tolerable as the shot clock drops so its not just a black and white matter.

Now if you meant that on the Suns a player who shoots below 33% should not shoot threes when the situation doesn't demand it, I would say you are probably about right. Most all of us wince when Shawn launches one from out front where he shoots worse than that so I don't think you'd find much disagreement with that amendment to your statement.

On another team that shoots a lower percentage for 2 than the Suns then the percentage point where 3's become a bad idea is lower - though other factors like offensive rebounds of 3's vs 2's and odds of getting fouled on 3's vs 2's come into play.

 

[Stargazer]

There is simply no way that guys shooting below 33% should ever be taking three point shots.

I'm genuinely puzzled by this. A 33% shooter shooting a 3 is worth 1 point, on average. Ignoring secondary effects like chance for rebound, foul, etc., it's the same as a 50% shot at a 2. Checking ESPN's offense statistics, I see that Phoenix averages 1.28 points per shot, which implies that a Suns player shouldn't shoot a 3 unless they have a 42.7% chance of hitting. But I also see that Phoenix is shooting only 37% from the 3, which seems to suggest that their average 3 shot is actually dragging down their offensive production -- which is possible, but seems wrong. I also see that the Suns adjusted FG% is .54. To hit that shooting the three, you would need to be shooting at 36%.

What I don't know, though, is whether scorekeepers count full court tosses at the buzzer that have no chance as a 3 attempt. If they do, that could seriously screw up 3 percentages, since there are relatively few 3 attempts to begin with. 6 of 15 shooting is 40%; but throw in a "what the hell" full court toss at the end of the half, and 6 of 16 drops to 37.5%.

At any rate, I would say 33% is decent floor for 3-point shooters until the last 8 seconds, at which point any open look should be taken.

 

[Errntknght]

Stargazer,

I'm genuinely puzzled by this. A 33% shooter shooting a 3 is worth 1 point, on average. Ignoring secondary effects like chance for rebound, foul, etc., it's the same as a 50% shot at a 2. Checking ESPN's offense statistics, I see that Phoenix averages 1.28 points per shot, which implies that a Suns player shouldn't shoot a 3 unless they have a 42.7% chance of hitting. But I also see that Phoenix is shooting only 37% from the 3, which seems to suggest that their average 3 shot is actually dragging down their offensive production -- which is possible, but seems wrong. I also see that the Suns adjusted FG% is .54. To hit that shooting the three, you would need to be shooting at 36%.

What I don't know, though, is whether scorekeepers count full court tosses at the buzzer that have no chance as a 3 attempt. If they do, that could seriously screw up 3 percentages, since there are relatively few 3 attempts to begin with. 6 of 15 shooting is 40%; but throw in a "what the hell" full court toss at the end of the half, and 6 of 16 drops to 37.5%.

Fouls play a much larger role than it seems. The primary reason is that if a player is fouled while shooting and misses the shot it is not counted as a FG attempt. If a player commits an offensive foul while attempting a shot it is not considered a FG attempt. The counting is the same for 2 and 3 point shots but, of course, both kinds of fouls happen predominantly on 2 point attempts. This pushes the numbers for both EFF FG % and Points per shot upward from what they really are which favors 2 point shots are far stats are concerned. As you noticed when you compared the stats the effect is stronger on Points per shot and thats because FTs give points with no shot attempt, unless it's an 'and 1'.

You can even make a case that turnovers make two point shots seem better statistically because more turnovers result from trying to get two point shots than from three point shots.

Different people make different adjustments - what I do is calculate a 2 pt FG% by subtracting out 3pt Att and 3 pt made then take two thirds of that. The 2 pt FG% is bit high but getting foul shots is a benefit so I figure they about cancel each other out. Right now the Suns are shooting 53.05 for 2 so that means the cutoff for 3 pt
shots is 35.5%.

I have never considered the possibility that score keepers wouldn't count very long, desperation attempts as 3 point attempts since the team gets the points if the shot is made. By what logic would they not count as shots?

Edit: I just noticed that Adj FG% is corrected for FT's and my idea of Effective FG% is not so corrected. Thus the effect of fouls is much less on Adj FG%, which explains why the two numbers you got are so far apart.

Edit #2: (Rewording my hurried first edit) Adj FG% on ESPN is defined to be (Points - FTM) divided by (2*FGA), so that shows clearly why you got a much lower cutoff value (36%) for 3pts shots using that than you did using Pts per FGA (42.7%). What I said about Effective FG% is irrelevant - it doesn't correct for FTM but it doesn't use total points either so there is no need for a correction.

 

[azirish]

The ability to draw fouls is one issue. The other is the nature of the rebounds.

Missed three point shots create long rebounds, which are ideal for the opposition to generate fast breaks. Shorter shots permit more offensive rebounds for putbacks and keep the defensive rebounds closer to the basket that generate fewer breaks.

This is one of the reasons why I get bothered when the Suns brick threes while opponents are making runs. That is the time period when slowing opponents down should be a priority.

Stopping oppositions runs is as much psychological as anything else. That is when hitting shots and getting to the line becomes crucial. Giving up easy scoring opportunities gives the other team hope and more important - energy.

 

[Errntknght]

Missed three point shots create long rebounds, which are ideal for the opposition to generate fast breaks. Shorter shots permit more offensive rebounds for putbacks and keep the defensive rebounds closer to the basket that generate fewer breaks.

You keep stating this as though you knew it were true and you don't have any data or examples to back it up - the same as the other times. I'm not going to bother to give a rebuttal argument this time.

The fact that you get bothered when only when they brick threes tells the story - you should have been totally ticked off in the first quarter of the Sacramento game when the Kings were on a furious run but the Suns were putting them down further and further because they were raining threes on them.

 

[nowagimp]

You keep stating this as though you knew it were true and you don't have any data or examples to back it up - the same as the other times. I'm not going to bother to give a rebuttal argument this time.

The fact that you get bothered when only when they brick threes tells the story - you should have been totally ticked off in the first quarter of the Sacramento game when the Kings were on a furious run but the Suns were putting them down further and further because they were raining threes on them.

There is a physics argument for this claim and it is reasonable over the long haul(it has to do with the incident velocity of the ball in Z(vertical and X(court length direction) when it hits the rim on long and short shots. Its just college physics I. However, I leave it up to the physics literate to recognize it.

 

[Covert Rain]

27% would be a disaster for a small team trying to spread the floor in order to score in the paint. The lowest 3pt percentage in the NBA is 30-31%. The spurs couldnt survive even 30% accuracy from 3 and survive the playoffs, and they have the big guys to rebound and play better interior defense.

It was a typo. I meant 37% not 27%. My point still applies.

 

[Stargazer]

The ability to draw fouls is one issue. The other is the nature of the rebounds.

Missed three point shots create long rebounds, which are ideal for the opposition to generate fast breaks. Shorter shots permit more offensive rebounds for putbacks and keep the defensive rebounds closer to the basket that generate fewer breaks.

This is one of the reasons why I get bothered when the Suns brick threes while opponents are making runs. That is the time period when slowing opponents down should be a priority.

Stopping oppositions runs is as much psychological as anything else. That is when hitting shots and getting to the line becomes crucial. Giving up easy scoring opportunities gives the other team hope and more important - energy.

This seems plausible, but I actually thought longer rebounds favored the offense on the theory that the defense will likely capture any short rebounds because they are able to block out, whereas longer rebounds are more of a matter of luck. But I don't have any data either way, so you may be right.

 

[mojorizen7]

IMHO, the Suns players should focus on finding the open man rather than taking the first three point shot that comes available. Make the opponent's defense work and make sure the three is WIDE open, with time to get the feet set and not rush the motion.

I agree. There's nothing wrong with the SUNS offense right now. Let's start guarding people.

 

[azirish]

This seems plausible, but I actually thought longer rebounds favored the offense on the theory that the defense will likely capture any short rebounds because they are able to block out, whereas longer rebounds are more of a matter of luck. But I don't have any data either way, so you may be right.

Mid range does seem to advantage the offense because the shooter has a fair idea where the ball will end up. My impression is that long range doesn't seem to generate as many offensive rebounds.

BTW, I am far less critical of corner shots than wing shots, even by low percentage shooters. This is because they are for a shorter distance and long rebounds are not as likely to trigger breaks since they are on the baseline.

IMHO, when shooting threes:

1. Only Nash should be allowed to shoot them off the dribble.

2. Only take catch and shoot shots that are WIDE open. Somewhat open where a guy is running toward him are far less accurate due to attempts to rush the release.

3. Weak three point shooters should focus on taking them from the corner rather than the wing due to a shorter distance.

4. Most guys should not shoot the three if a high percentage shot is also available.