For Three

[nowagimp]

I am going to assume that its just been overlooked here that 3 pt shots are needed to prevent the defense from collapsing in the lane. Suns fans must realize that the threat of a made 3 pt shot opens up the lane for the pic and roll with Amare and Nash, or Diaw operating from the elbow. Thus taking three point shots and making even 33%(51% effective FG percentage), will lead to a higher percentage on 2 pt shots than eschewing the 3 all together. Defenses are adaptive and flexible, its not about raw stats, and this can be said about nearly all sports. The run sets up the pass or visa versa in football. The stats argument is a shallow one without strategy. Now if you want to argue how MANY shots should be taken at 33% from 3(15/game or 25 a game), that depends on the inside game of the team in question. Because the suns have a limited inside game(not alot of offensive rebounding, 1 post player), more 3's are needed to create the space for it to be successful. Its all about balance and as anyone can see the suns cant inside out any good defensive teams with 15' jumpers. I do agree that the suns might be better against the warriors going bigger, hurting them on the offensive glass. The warriors are a faster, more athletic team than the suns. the problem is KT has been replaced by skinner, meaning no pick and pop consistency when they go big. And amare was just awful on D, his lack of awareness was taken advantage of. Sure would like to see PJ in there for his ability to hit the jumper when they go big. Its the only part of skinners game I have a problem with.

 

[azirish]

My issue is not with shooting threes. For example, I think that Hill needs to take at least one a game and have no doubt that Marion needs to shoot one every so often. Just not five a game and certainly not in the midst of an opponent's run.

It is important that the Suns have at least two serious three point shooters on the floor at all time: Nash, Bell and Barbosa are those guys. Otherwise, the Suns will face zones every time going down court. But no one is going to break up their zone just because Marion has the ball.

It's a long season and we don't know if Hill will become a serious three point threat. So far the answer appears to be "no", but the Suns system really does benefit from having three guys who are serious threats. In training camp he showed he can hit them and has hit two of his last four, but that is not enough to accept it as a trend.

 

[nowagimp]

My issue is not with shooting threes. For example, I think that Hill needs to take at least one a game and have no doubt that Marion needs to shoot one every so often. Just not five a game and certainly not in the midst of an opponent's run.

It is important that the Suns have at least two serious three point shooters on the floor at all time: Nash, Bell and Barbosa are those guys. Otherwise, the Suns will face zones every time going down court. But no one is going to break up their zone just because Marion has the ball.

It's a long season and we don't know if Hill will become a serious three point threat. So far the answer appears to be "no", but the Suns system really does benefit from having three guys who are serious threats. In training camp he showed he can hit them and has hit two of his last four, but that is not enough to accept it as a trend.

the suns are having problems right now with Raja recovering, LB in a 3pt shooting funk and Nash(shoulder injury?) just starting to hit threes again. Opposing defenses will by design cover LB and Raja and Nash, but not Marion or Hill. the question is whether a well defended 3 from our better shooters is better than an undefended one from Hill, or Marion. I felt that Nellie knew(scouting report would be obvious) LB was not making his shots lately and chose to not cover him quite as closely on the perimeter. In addition Raja isnt even in shape yet and after he hit a few they tightened up. ANd if you noticed in the paper nash saying that the turnovers are due to poor off ball movement(my paraphrase, Nash is a diplomat). I think this was right on, the movement off the ball on the dribble penetration stunk against the warriors. I think the reason was that the suns were winded trying to keep up with the speedier warriors(and perhaps 7-8 uncalled hacks on the dribble penetration, the "homecourt advantage in the nba"). DA needs to make sure guys stay fresh against a team like the warriors and since Banks wasnt available and he wasnt willing to use skinner in the first half, the suns paid the price. Nellie just took advantage of DA's short rotation and matchups. I dont think for one minute that anyone here at ASFN understands how to win with the suns personnel as well as DA, but other coaches(with deep teams) will take advantage of his short rotation.

 

[Stargazer]

My issue is not with shooting threes. For example, I think that Hill needs to take at least one a game and have no doubt that Marion needs to shoot one every so often. Just not five a game and certainly not in the midst of an opponent's run.

It is important that the Suns have at least two serious three point shooters on the floor at all time: Nash, Bell and Barbosa are those guys. Otherwise, the Suns will face zones every time going down court. But no one is going to break up their zone just because Marion has the ball.

It's a long season and we don't know if Hill will become a serious three point threat. So far the answer appears to be "no", but the Suns system really does benefit from having three guys who are serious threats. In training camp he showed he can hit them and has hit two of his last four, but that is not enough to accept it as a trend.

Last time I checked, Hill was shooting 33% from 3 if you ignore his 1 for 7 in game one. He has a smooth shot, and I can't see any reason why he shouldn't be able to shoot the 3 well with time.

 

[azirish]

Last time I checked, Hill was shooting 33% from 3 if you ignore his 1 for 7 in game one. He has a smooth shot, and I can't see any reason why he shouldn't be able to shoot the 3 well with time.

I certainly hope he will because he's too good to leave on the bench.

 

[nowagimp]

Last time I checked, Hill was shooting 33% from 3 if you ignore his 1 for 7 in game one. He has a smooth shot, and I can't see any reason why he shouldn't be able to shoot the 3 well with time.

His shot attemps from 3 are way down, from 5/game early on to less than 2/game over tha last 3. Hill still leaves his shot short in the second half alot even from 2 pt range. Either his old legs are getting tired as the game goes along or he's not in shape yet(or playing too many minutes).

 

[Errntknght]

Originally Posted by azirish View Post
The ability to draw fouls is one issue. The other is the nature of the rebounds.

Missed three point shots create long rebounds, which are ideal for the opposition to generate fast breaks. Shorter shots permit more offensive rebounds for putbacks and keep the defensive rebounds closer to the basket that generate fewer breaks.

George, the GS game was a good one to test your hypothesis about the effect of 3pt shot rebounds leading to fast breaks. What did you observe? I didn't specifically watch for it but the fast breaks I remember resulted almost invariably from the Suns' turnovers, of which there were many. I still have the game recorded so if you tell me that there were a good number from 3pt shots, I'll check it out.

 

[nowagimp]

George, the GS game was a good one to test your hypothesis about the effect of 3pt shot rebounds leading to fast breaks. What did you observe? I didn't specifically watch for it but the fast breaks I remember resulted almost invariably from the Suns' turnovers, of which there were many. I still have the game recorded so if you tell me that there were a good number from 3pt shots, I'll check it out.

I believe that in this game it was true, turnovers were where the warriors scored the easy fast break buckets. But to dispute that long shots lead to long rebounds is silly. NBA coaches have been saying this for decades and they are correct. Im sure they have studied plenty of game film, not just one game.