Free Agency - Not As Much Money As Expected

[George O'Brien]

One of the recurring discussions about this year's free agency is the assumption that some team like Cleveland will make an idiotic offer and steal JJ. Anything is possible, but realistically there aren't that many teams with much uncommitted cap space. Of them, most are so bad that they cannot afford to put all their money onto one guy. Some others have space, but are generally committed to re-signing their own guys. The following is from Hoopshype, which is not totally accurate due to their delays in updating on contracts not yet ineffect.

LARGE AMOUNT OF CAP SPACE (LIST BY PROJECTED CONTRACTS):

Atlanta $20.2
New Orleans $16.3
Clippers $28.3
Charlotte $10.6 (their cap is lower so their actual space is not as great as it looks)

MEDIUM AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE SPACE

Cleveland $25.3 (Illgauskus is up)
Denver $33 (Miller and Boykins listed as up)
Seattle $22.3 (Allen, James, and Daniels are up with Radmanovic an RFA)

I'm not sure exactly what Milwaukee's status is, but Redd, Gadzuric, and Pachulia are all up.

This summer will be defined by how many above the MLE players are willing to play for a really crappy team such as the Hawks or Hornets. The Clippers are not as bad as those two, but are really cheap. Charlotte has an overt strategy of avoiding high priced free agents.

This means that the real issue will be the Medium teams, but all of them have players to re-sign and multiple needs. Take Cleveland, they not only need to sign someone as SG but also re-sign Illgauskus and either re-sign McInnis or find a replacement. Not only that, but they need a backup center as well.

Denver will need to re-sign Miller and Boykins before they even consider going for a new SG.

The willingness of players to go to bad teams is significant. Last summer the Suns had a weak record, but anyone who looked at the team knew it had some up and coming stars. Atlanta and New Orleans don't.

Considering the needs of the teams with cap space, I think there are some good players who won't get above the MLE offers unless the salary cap is dramatically raised. For example, I don't think Donyell Marshall will get an above the MLE offer, simply because of his age and the needs of the teams with cap space.

Obviously, things can change. A strong team can make a trade to a team with cap space which might give them the space. The new collective bargaining agreement could severely alter the free agency landscape. None the less, I think some assumptions about free agency tend to ignore the reality of actual cap space.

 

[SweetD]

I think Denver will let Miller go and look to the draft or for a free-agent to fill his spot. JMO

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I am pretty sure Hoopshype has Miller's deal listed incorrectly. IIRC, he signed a 6 year deal 2 summers ago. I am also pretty sure this has come up before....


Also, Z will not get a big deal from cleveland. He has said himself that he doesn't want a max deal, and that LBJ is the only person on the team deserving of one. The new ownership group isn't the largest fan of his either. They will have max cap room available this summer.

 

[George O'Brien]

I am pretty sure Hoopshype has Miller's deal listed incorrectly. IIRC, he signed a 6 year deal 2 summers ago. I am also pretty sure this has come up before....


Also, Z will not get a big deal from cleveland. He has said himself that he doesn't want a max deal, and that LBJ is the only person on the team deserving of one. The new ownership group isn't the largest fan of his either. They will have max cap room available this summer.

You are right about Miller. Hoopshype drives me crazy.

One of the big variables will be if guaranteed contracts are reduced to 4 years. This will mean that the starting salaries will have to be higher because there won't be the big paydays in the last two years.

For example. A six year contract beginning at $10 million with a 10% grown rate (based on the initial year of the contract) would create a six year total of $75 million or an average of $12.5 million. However, to average $12.5 million a year over four years the starting amount would be just under $11 million ($10.93 million) for a total of $50 million.

A lot will depend on the player's leverage, but even the $50 million does not make the player "whole" since the extra $25 million of the six year contract may simply be lost. For a player like Illgauskus, it would be necessary to make more in the four years to make up for the likelyhood of lost revenue from missing the last two years.

The short contracts effects the kinds of offers the Cavs can make on the other end. As it stands now, a contract beginning at $8 million over six years would generate $60 million for an average of $8.75 million. To average $10 million on a four year contract would require a starting salary of $8.75 million.

My guess is that a reduction in guaranteed years would end up adding over $2 million in the required cap space on just two contracts. This would not make a difference if the salary cap is increased substantially, but could seriously effect some deals if it is not.

 

[NugzFan]

Denver will need to re-sign Miller and Boykins before they even consider going for a new SG.

where did you get that info from - both earl and dre are signed long term.

 

[coloradosun]

They will have an additional 3m in cap space if they buyout Voshon Lenard though.

 

[George O'Brien]

where did you get that info from - both earl and dre are signed long term.

I retracted. Hoopshype is really bad about some contracts. Just figure Denver has minimal cap space and won't really make much of run at JJ even though the Denver papers bring his name up all the time.

 

[F-Dog]

I've decided that the Suns will wind up matching any offer for Joe Johnson.

They've gotten into the same situation they got into with Shawn Marion--there's no way for the Suns to recover talent-wise if they lose Joe J, and they can't afford to take a step back.

At this point I'm just hoping that none of these teams decides to put the Suns to the test.

 

[George O'Brien]

I've decided that the Suns will wind up matching any offer for Joe Johnson.

They've gotten into the same situation they got into with Shawn Marion--there's no way for the Suns to recover talent-wise if they lose Joe J, and they can't afford to take a step back.

At this point I'm just hoping that none of these teams decides to put the Suns to the test.

The Cavs are the team to watch, but with Ray Allen, Michael Redd, and Bobby Simmons all unrestricted; why would they kill 15 days hoping the Suns wouldn't match? I think they will talk to Redd first, but you'd have to think Simmons would be their primary target considering how much everyone wants to leave the Clips:

Bobby Simmons
Los Angeles Clippers
Position: F
Height: 6-6 Weight: 228
College : DePaul '02
Player file | Team stats

2004-05 Statistics
PPG 16.6
RPG 6.0
APG 2.8
SPG 1.36
BPG .21
FG% .472
FT% .849
3P% .450
MPG 37.5

 

[Gaddabout]

I've decided that the Suns will wind up matching any offer for Joe Johnson.

Let's put it this way: Nearly ever stop on every road trip, some reporter is suggesting Joe Johnson as a possible free agent pickup for the home team. In most cases, all the speculation started back when the Suns signed Q. Everybody thought that meant the Suns were pushing Joe J out. Nobody considered Johnson and Q on the floor at the same time.

Now it's at the end of the season, and I think people have forgotten why so much of the Johnson trade rumors/free agent rumors began in the first place. Johnson's a started on the No. 1 team in the NBA. He is valued, and probably more to the Suns than most teams. Also, I think Johnson's the type of player who doesn't want the big contract if it means he has to be the man of the team. I don't think he likes being the focal point on a night-in, night-out basis.

 

[George O'Brien]

Let's put it this way: Nearly ever stop on every road trip, some reporter is suggesting Joe Johnson as a possible free agent pickup for the home team. In most cases, all the speculation started back when the Suns signed Q. Everybody thought that meant the Suns were pushing Joe J out. Nobody considered Johnson and Q on the floor at the same time.

Now it's at the end of the season, and I think people have forgotten why so much of the Johnson trade rumors/free agent rumors began in the first place. Johnson's a started on the No. 1 team in the NBA. He is valued, and probably more to the Suns than most teams. Also, I think Johnson's the type of player who doesn't want the big contract if it means he has to be the man of the team. I don't think he likes being the focal point on a night-in, night-out basis.

The plight of even great players on lousy teams should give JJ some pause. The game isn't much fun when for a player who gets blamed for all the losses.

In recent years wing guys have not been getting the ridiculous contracts. The big money goes to bigs or point guards. Even Ray Allen and Michael Redd are not going to get the kind of money they might hope for - but SAR and Swift will.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I've decided that the Suns will wind up matching any offer for Joe Johnson.

They've gotten into the same situation they got into with Shawn Marion--there's no way for the Suns to recover talent-wise if they lose Joe J, and they can't afford to take a step back.

At this point I'm just hoping that none of these teams decides to put the Suns to the test.

JJ is only a RFA and that is a luxury. If he gets a huge offer, they'll be able to shop around for 2 weeks for a replacement before they have to decide to match. Meanwhile the team that makes the offer gets to twist in the wind as FA's fall off the board.

The sign of real trouble will be if JJ only agrees to a 1 year deal.

 

[F-Dog]

JJ is only a RFA and that is a luxury. If he gets a huge offer, they'll be able to shop around for 2 weeks for a replacement before they have to decide to match. Meanwhile the team that makes the offer gets to twist in the wind as FA's fall off the board.

They'll definitely wait two weeks, to punish the other team. There's no way they'll be able to replace JJ with an MLE player, though.

The sign of real trouble will be if JJ only agrees to a 1 year deal.

Agreed. This strikes me as very unlikely, though, while I can easily see the Suns matching a bad offer sheet for JJ, given by a team with nothing to lose.



I think Dalembert and Ilgauskas will be the big FA prizes this summer (after Allen and Redd), especially if Ilgauskas is firm about only accepting a three-year deal.

Once those four are gone, whichever RFAs have the foresight to hold out will probably be looking at nice deals. Even Kwame Brown will probably wind up with a big contract, if he's willing to wait for it.

 

[George O'Brien]

I think SAR will get a lot of attention. There is no doubt that he wants out of Portland and he is capable of very good numbers. To give an example, compare him to Kenyon Martin:

Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Portland Trail Blazers
Position: F
Height: 6-9 Weight: 245
College : California '99
Player file | Team stats

2004-05 Statistics
PPG 16.7
RPG 7.3
APG 1.7
SPG .95
BPG .56
FG% .490
FT% .873
3P% .385
MPG 34.7


Kenyon Martin
Denver Nuggets
Position: F
Height: 6-9 Weight: 234
College : Cincinnati '00
Player file | Team stats

2004-05 Statistics
PPG 15.3
RPG 7.5
APG 2.5
SPG 1.51
BPG 1.16
FG% .481
FT% .632
3P% .000
MPG 33.3

Martin is a better defender but SAR is a much better outside shooter. Martin got $91 million over 7 years.

 

[overseascardsfan]

With JJ being the biggest prize this free agency period, I don't see the Sun's looking at anyone else. He'll get as much as Redd, Allen, and Simmons, all possible replacements so I think they'll match any offer and use the draft to find their rebounding needs and bench replacement if they don't resign McCarty and release Voskuhl and Shirley.


P.S. How many total draft picks do we have this year?

 

[NugzFan]

I think SAR will get a lot of attention. There is no doubt that he wants out of Portland and he is capable of very good numbers. To give an example, compare him to Kenyon Martin:

Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Portland Trail Blazers
Position: F
Height: 6-9 Weight: 245
College : California '99
Player file | Team stats

2004-05 Statistics
PPG 16.7
RPG 7.3
APG 1.7
SPG .95
BPG .56
FG% .490
FT% .873
3P% .385
MPG 34.7


Kenyon Martin
Denver Nuggets
Position: F
Height: 6-9 Weight: 234
College : Cincinnati '00
Player file | Team stats

2004-05 Statistics
PPG 15.3
RPG 7.5
APG 2.5
SPG 1.51
BPG 1.16
FG% .481
FT% .632
3P% .000
MPG 33.3

Martin is a better defender but SAR is a much better outside shooter. Martin got $91 million over 7 years.

sar wont get close to 7/91.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

sar wont get close to 7/91.

No way. It is even possible he could go somewhere with a chance to win for the MLE.

If not, look for SAR and Walker to get similar contracts, probably starting at about 8-9million.

 

[elindholm]

I was originally going to respond to the Martin/Abdur-Rahim comparison by saying that Martin is "much younger," and thus makes more sense as a long-term investment. But actually their ages are only one year apart! Given that, it is sort rather strange that Abdur-Rahim might not even get a contract half the size of Martin's.

 

[NugzFan]

No way. It is even possible he could go somewhere with a chance to win for the MLE.

If not, look for SAR and Walker to get similar contracts, probably starting at about 8-9million.

sar? a winning team?! that would be a first! ive never seen a guy so talented (hell ANY player) lose so much on so many teams.