Free Agency Rumors

[Solar7]

Draft one later. The league is full of starting running backs taken day 3 or later.

Day 3? Let's look at that. Because you're wrong. Since there's a ton of backfield changes coming, let's use a 2020 depth chart for the sake of the argument...

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/depth-chart/RB/

I count 6.

James Robinson
Austin Ekeler
Myles Gaskin
Aaron Jones
Chris Carson
Raheem Mostert

That's six guys out of 32 teams. And Gaskin is no star.

93 RBs were drafted after the 3rd round since Raheem Mostert entered the league in 2015 (and he wasn't even drafted, heck, 3/6 weren't), and this is our success rate. That's not a full league of late guys by any means. That's why I'd be pretty nervous about counting on someone in day 3 to be a meaningful complement to our QB.

 

[Solar7]

Earliest to go would be Round 5.


RB is a issue, I didn’t deny that, but it’s so far behind way more important issues like iOL, CB, WR, & possibly EDGE if Reddicks leaves that I just can’t bring myself to actually go hard for a RB. If we go RB round 5, I think I might be fine with that.

You mean the first 2-3 years before most likely falling off? When that position could have been a CB or C contributor for 5+ years instead? I know Cowboys fans regret drafting Zeke over Ramsey.

You and I definitely view our window of opportunity differently, I guess. That has an effect on how we discuss this.

You're planning 5 years out and the team is organizing to win now. Kyler's going to start talking contract extension at the end of this season, Keim and Kliff are in a tenuous situation where they need to win now or never. I personally would prioritize RB over edge, maybe even WR.

 

[DVontel]

You and I definitely view our window of opportunity differently, I guess. That has an effect on how we discuss this.

You're planning 5 years out and the team is organizing to win now. Kyler's going to start talking contract extension at the end of this season, Keim and Kliff are in a tenuous situation where they need to win now or never. I personally would prioritize RB over edge, maybe even WR.

I just don’t see how you can prioritize the least valuable position in football over a premium position, probably the most premium non-QB position in football. Whether it’s a 1 year window or 10 year window.

Drafting a ILB then a RB in the first round in back-to-back drafts is asinine.

 

[Solar7]

I just don’t see how you can prioritize the least valuable position in football over a premium position, probably the most premium non-QB position in football. Whether it’s a 1 year window or 10 year window.

Drafting a ILB then a RB in the first round in back-to-back drafts is asinine.

Can we talk about "least valuable?" Because, I'd love to know your metric. Is this purely about career longevity? The RB touches the ball more often than any player on the field but the center and QB.

 

[Stout]

I just don’t see how you can prioritize the least valuable position in football over a premium position, probably the most premium non-QB position in football. Whether it’s a 1 year window or 10 year window.

Drafting a ILB then a RB in the first round in back-to-back drafts is asinine.

So if you draft a Luke Keuchley (sp?) and an Emmit Smith in back-to-back drafts, that would be asinine? Asinine is making absolute statements about a position (save for K and P) while disregarding skill level.

Here's a good example for you: the 2007 draft. Would you have rather had Adrian Peterson or Levi Brown? We regretted that mistake for a looooong time.

 

[daves]

FA is always littered with cheap and decent options. Sign one of those, and then draft one late, and I'll be happy.

Would you have rather had Adrian Peterson or Levi Brown? We regretted that mistake for a looooong time.

Well since you mention it... Adrian Peterson is a free agent!

...dave

 

[DVontel]

Can we talk about "least valuable?" Because, I'd love to know your metric. Is this purely about career longevity? The RB touches the ball more often than any player on the field but the center and QB.

A player that is not dependent on needing to be a 1st rounder to heavily contribute for its team’s success. It doesn’t matter if the RB touches the ball after the QB & C if the C is getting drove all the way back the second the snap starts. And yes, it also factors longevity. Look at all the teams that drafted RBs in the first round recently.

Jaguars with Fournette(not on team anymore)
Rams with Gurley(not on team anymore. Had a good 2 year run, but look at that, 2 year run.
Giants with Barkley(constantly dinged up. Imagine if they would’ve drafted Josh Allen instead?)
Panthers with CMC(was fantastic a year ago, but was dinged up most of last year after getting that extension. Not good)
Cowboys with Zeke(Great a couple years ago, but has starting to fall off & just look overall lazy. His extension hasn’t started yet which is scary! Imagine if they would’ve drafted Jalen Ramsey instead)


Then you look at the very top RBs of the game like Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook....none of these guys were first rounders, but outside of Dalvin, all of these dudes gave a very good-to-elite OLine. We don’t have that!


There’s a reason the NFL is starting to shift away from drafting RBs high. We might not even see a RB drafted in the top 15-20 for a long, long time.

 

[DVontel]

So if you draft a Luke Keuchley (sp?) and an Emmit Smith in back-to-back drafts, that would be asinine? Asinine is making absolute statements about a position (save for K and P) while disregarding skill level.

Here's a good example for you: the 2007 draft. Would you have rather had Adrian Peterson or Levi Brown? We regretted that mistake for a looooong time.

Bringing up a guy that played in a totally different era 30+ years is rather irrelevant to today’s era. For that era, I’ll be happy with Emmitt, sure.


Funny that you bring up Kuechly though. Him & Chandler Jones were in the same draft class. Both have had great careers. Guess who’s still playing though? The more valuable position. The position with more longevity.



AP, but also, different era.



Basically, give me the good EDGE/CB/OT over the great RB in today’s era.

 

[Jetstream Green]

I don't have a clue how we are going to fill the RB position and Edmonds to me is clearly an excellent change of pace back but not a extended starter. I also am aware that this offense only thrives when the rushing game is doing well... running back is more important than some people think

 

[Solar7]

A player that is not dependent on needing to be a 1st rounder to heavily contribute for its team’s success. It doesn’t matter if the RB touches the ball after the QB & C if the C is getting drove all the way back the second the snap starts. And yes, it also factors longevity. Look at all the teams that drafted RBs in the first round recently.

Jaguars with Fournette(not on team anymore)
Rams with Gurley(not on team anymore. Had a good 2 year run, but look at that, 2 year run.
Giants with Barkley(constantly dinged up. Imagine if they would’ve drafted Josh Allen instead?)
Panthers with CMC(was fantastic a year ago, but was dinged up most of last year after getting that extension. Not good)
Cowboys with Zeke(Great a couple years ago, but has starting to fall off & just look overall lazy. His extension hasn’t started yet which is scary! Imagine if they would’ve drafted Jalen Ramsey instead)


Then you look at the very top RBs of the game like Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook....none of these guys were first rounders, but outside of Dalvin, all of these dudes gave a very good-to-elite OLine. We don’t have that!


There’s a reason the NFL is starting to shift away from drafting RBs high. We might not even see a RB drafted in the top 15-20 for a long, long time.

This is a false equivalence though... you're saying you're pretty uncomfortable taking an RB anywhere in this draft, and then you go on to point out guys drafted in the top 10, which isn't where we'll be drafting.

There's a canyon between "draft an RB in the top 10 and don't upgrade the OL," and "let's get an RB in the first three rounds to bolster a pretty weak looking room."

 

[DVontel]

This is a false equivalence though... you're saying you're pretty uncomfortable taking an RB anywhere in this draft, and then you go on to point out guys drafted in the top 10, which isn't where we'll be drafting.

There's a canyon between "draft an RB in the top 10 and don't upgrade the OL," and "let's get an RB in the first three rounds to bolster a pretty weak looking room."

It seemed like you were okay with drafting a RB in the 1st round, so I replied to that.

I don’t want to draft a RB in the first 3 rounds for this year, at least, due to the amount of more valuable spots we need upgrading.

 

[Solar7]

It seemed like you were okay with drafting a RB in the 1st round, so I replied to that.

I don’t want to draft a RB in the first 3 rounds for this year, at least, due to the amount of more valuable spots we need upgrading.

I'm not going to throw a tantrum if we take an RB in round 1, no. There's a lot that can go on in free agency in a few days to change how I'm going to feel about it, but I don't want to reach for the 4th best CB or 4th best WR instead of an elite RB, even if that only lasts us 5-6 years.

 

[BritCard]

Day 3? Let's look at that. Because you're wrong. Since there's a ton of backfield changes coming, let's use a 2020 depth chart for the sake of the argument...

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/depth-chart/RB/

I count 6.

James Robinson
Austin Ekeler
Myles Gaskin
Aaron Jones
Chris Carson
Raheem Mostert

That's six guys out of 32 teams. And Gaskin is no star.

93 RBs were drafted after the 3rd round since Raheem Mostert entered the league in 2015 (and he wasn't even drafted, heck, 3/6 weren't), and this is our success rate. That's not a full league of late guys by any means. That's why I'd be pretty nervous about counting on someone in day 3 to be a meaningful complement to our QB.

Well sure if you want to count only defacto starters and not guys who have shown they are starting calibre running backs in multi back schemes.

Nyheim Hines
Philip Lindsay
Tony Pollard
Tariq Cohen
Jamaal Williams
Wayne Gallman
Marlon Mack
Jordan Howard
Tevin Coleman
Mike Davis
Jay Ajayi
Jerrick McKinnon
Etc etc

I don't think the Cards are looking for a bell cow back again. I think they learned that lesson. And there's no super star elite running back in this class IMO.

I think they take a cheap vet like Duke Johnson or Tevin Coleman and maybe add a lower round project.

 

[DVontel]

I'm not going to throw a tantrum if we take an RB in round 1, no. There's a lot that can go on in free agency in a few days to change how I'm going to feel about it, but I don't want to reach for the 4th best CB or 4th best WR instead of an elite RB, even if that only lasts us 5-6 years.

Hopefully Keim doesn’t share these same thoughts. The 4th best CB could still be a very good CB so yea, easily going with that over an elite RB.

 

[Stout]

Bringing up a guy that played in a totally different era 30+ years is rather irrelevant to today’s era. For that era, I’ll be happy with Emmitt, sure.


Funny that you bring up Kuechly though. Him & Chandler Jones were in the same draft class. Both have had great careers. Guess who’s still playing though? The more valuable position. The position with more longevity.



AP, but also, different era.



Basically, give me the good EDGE/CB/OT over the great RB in today’s era.

LOL we'd be THRILLED with a young Emmitt Smith or Adrian Peterson in THIS era. Also, the question isn't whether you'd have Chandler Jones or Luke Keuchley; it's whether Luke Keuechley is worth a 1st-round pick. The answer is a resounding YES. Same with the great RBs. If I KNEW both a RB and a pass rusher would be great, sure, I'd go with the pass rusher. Doesn't preclude taking a different position, though.

 

[DVontel]

LOL we'd be THRILLED with a young Emmitt Smith or Adrian Peterson in THIS era. Also, the question isn't whether you'd have Chandler Jones or Luke Keuchley; it's whether Luke Keuechley is worth a 1st-round pick. The answer is a resounding YES. Same with the great RBs. If I KNEW both a RB and a pass rusher would be great, sure, I'd go with the pass rusher. Doesn't preclude taking a different position, though.

I mean, sure. Easily going with AP over Emmitt despite that being a different conversation. With how much faster & smarter defenses are today & lack of good OLines, Emmitt wouldn’t be as effective as he was in his era.


Luke Kuechly is worth a 1st rounder, yea. Over the like of Chandler Jones or even Stephon Gilmore? Nah. You look at the best ILBs in the game today & realize that none of them are first rounders. There’s a reason for that.

If I know a RB would be great & every other position would be(outside of K or P)great, I’m going that other position every single time. Every single time.

 

[DVontel]

Drafting a ILB over OT then double down on that stupidity the next year by drafting a RB over CB. The Steve Keim way.

 

[Stout]

Drafting a ILB over OT then double down on that stupidity the next year by drafting a RB over CB. The Steve Keim way.

SMH You don't draft positions; you draft players. Levi Brown or Luke Keuchley? Drafting by position gets you freaking Wendell Bryant!!!

 

[Solar7]

Well sure if you want to count only defacto starters and not guys who have shown they are starting calibre running backs in multi back schemes.

Nyheim Hines
Philip Lindsay
Tony Pollard
Tariq Cohen
Jamaal Williams
Wayne Gallman
Marlon Mack
Jordan Howard
Tevin Coleman
Mike Davis
Jay Ajayi
Jerrick McKinnon
Etc etc

I don't think the Cards are looking for a bell cow back again. I think they learned that lesson. And there's no super star elite running back in this class IMO.

I think they take a cheap vet like Duke Johnson or Tevin Coleman and maybe add a lower round project.

You're really stretching "starting caliber" here.

Nyheim Hines - Zero 100 yard games in 3 years. Decent receiving back, not a full time starter. Won't be in 2021.
Phillip Lindsay - Maybe, but also if he's so good, why pay Melvin Gordon? Probably not a starter in 2021.
Tony Pollard - Two 100 yard games. Was pathetically ineffective in two starts last year. Not a starter in 2021.
Tarik Cohen - Zero 100 yard games in 4 years. A good returner and receiver, not a full time starter. Won't be in 2021.
Jamaal Williams - Two 100 yard games in 4 years. The team drafted an RB in the 2nd round last year so he might not even be back in 2021, much less a starter.
Wayne Gallman - One 100 yard game in 4 years. This guy was the definition of pedestrian all year despite having almost all year without Saquon to show something. Won't be a starter in 2021.
Marlon Mack - I'll at least give you this one, but the guy's goose is probably cooked after an Achilles tear.
Jordan Howard - He deserves some credit too, but got traded for a song and hasn't done much of anything since his first two years. Might not even make a roster in 2021.
Tevin Coleman - He was drafted in the third round, so doesn't count.
Mike Davis - One 100 yard game in 5 years, 4 different teams, 5 if you consider his two stints with Carolina. Don't let that serviceable fantasy streak fool you.
Jay Ajayi - One good year, then fell off a cliff and didn't even make a practice squad roster in 2020 with all of the space in the world for teams to add him.
Jerick McKinnon - Third round again, doesn't count. Even then, the guy has one 100 yard game in 6 years.

For the most part, outside of very unsustained stretches, all of these guys have been complementary players. Sure, some teams can find a way with a committee approach, but it's telling that almost every single one of these guys either had a higher drafted replacement, were traded away, cut multiple times, or lost their job to someone else.

 

[Solar7]

Hopefully Keim doesn’t share these same thoughts. The 4th best CB could still be a very good CB so yea, easily going with that over an elite RB.

At this point Keim could draft just as well with a PFF premium account and a random number generator set to 1-255, but in the hands of any capable GM, if Najee Harris is graded out at a 9.3 and Jaycee Horn is graded out at 7.9, you'd better take the guy who is going to help you dominate football games, not just be alright for five years until you figure he's going to get more in FA than you're willing to pay.

 

[DVontel]

At this point Keim could draft just as well with a PFF premium account and a random number generator set to 1-255, but in the hands of any capable GM, if Najee Harris is graded out at a 9.3 and Jaycee Horn is graded out at 7.9, you'd better take the guy who is going to help you dominate football games, not just be alright for five years until you figure he's going to get more in FA than you're willing to pay.

Give me Jaycee, as any GM should. Just like the rest of these recent 1st round RBs, Najee will probably fall off after his 2nd-3rd year in the league while we’re on here making posts as to why we didn’t just draft this other guy that just signed his 2nd contract.

 

[GuernseyCard]

Drafting a ILB over OT then double down on that stupidity the next year by drafting a RB over CB. The Steve Keim way.

So Isaiah Simmons, Dick Butkus award winner, is sitting there at #8 and you pass?

 

[DVontel]

So Isaiah Simmons, Dick Butkus award winner, is sitting there at #8 and you pass?

College awards lol.

Keim looks damn foolish taking him over Wirfs as of now doesn’t he?

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Seems a bit early to write off Simmons, especially given some of the flashes he showed last year and his elite athleticism.

 

[Solar7]

College awards lol.

Keim looks damn foolish taking him over Wirfs as of now doesn’t he?

That's extraordinarily early to make that call. Heck, Simmons' OT interception is pretty much solely responsible for one of our wins this year.