George O'Brien
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One of the most brilliant coups in Suns history was when they signed Tom Chambers as a free agent. The Colangelos had targeted him from start, got to him first, made a very strong offer, got an oral agreement, and then all but hid him until the declaration date so no other team had a chance to even talk to him.
For most teams, the more popular strategy has been to target someone that the team has only a minimal chance of signing, then turn to their second choice, third, and so on down the line. Sometimes this works, but more often it means the player is taken before the team even gets a chance to talk.
The idea of targeting the right player from the start is one that has worked for the Suns in the past, but it means NOT going after RFA's or guys who are going to be really difficult to sign.
How does this effect the Suns strategy this summer? My guess is that they will not chase Kobe, at least not seriously. They'll may just make their offer and then immediately go after the guys they think they can get IMMEDIATELY.
My guess would be that they will focus on Nash or Brent Barry. I'm not enthusiastic about Nash, but the Suns like him and it sounds like Mark Cuban has been slow at getting him tied down. This is a deal that has to be done quickly or not at all because the longer you wait the more likely Cuban will price him out of reach.
Most reports are that Brent Barry is going to leave the Sonics. It's partly over the length of the contract, but that is symbolic of a deeper rift with their management. BB is on the radar of at 3/4ths of all the teams in the NBA, but the teams with cap space are more limited. The Suns cannot afford to hesitate because Denver could be a very strong competitor here.
Signing their PG should be the Suns first priority. As much as I want the Suns to get a center, I am not sure there is anyone I want that they could get for a good price by acting quickly. Dampier and Camby only make sense late in the summer when their huge initial demands are either met or shot down. I don't like Okur, but his situation is the same in that he wants far more money than he's worth. Patience is the only viable strategy for any of these guys.
The mid priced guys like Foyle, Blount, and Etan Thomas are a mixed bag. Foyle and Blount might be picked up by moving fast. Neither is expected to get more than MLE from most reports, so a pre-emptive bid could change the dynamic. It means overpaying, but not as much as the upper end centers.
Etan Thomas is a restricted free agent. This means that the Wizzards would have 15 days to match. For that reason, he would be my third choice because I think the Wizzards will match.
What about everyone else? Kenyon Martin, Crawford, and Swift both RFA's. Martin seems likely to be be extremely expensive and would lock up most of the cap space during the waiting period. The Bulls seem certain to resign Crawford and then trade him. It is very unlikely that the Grizzlies would not match on Swift.
Some of the other guys are just not a good fit for the Suns. Brian Skinner is considered too small to play center even with the Bucks. The Kings are willing to pay Divac a lot of money to play another year. Troy Hudson is coming off an injury riddled year and is a "shoot first" PG anyway.
Other big men include Keon Clark (don't hold your breath), Michael Doleac, and Greg Ostertag. I'm not sure just how cheap Ostertag would have to be for the Suns to sign him, but it would have to be really, really cheap.
On the big side, I'm not very optomistic that they can get the job done through free agency. IMHO, Resigning Dice is hardly a dramatic move, but it makes more sense than grossly overpaying Okur or taking a bargain basement reject.
For most teams, the more popular strategy has been to target someone that the team has only a minimal chance of signing, then turn to their second choice, third, and so on down the line. Sometimes this works, but more often it means the player is taken before the team even gets a chance to talk.
The idea of targeting the right player from the start is one that has worked for the Suns in the past, but it means NOT going after RFA's or guys who are going to be really difficult to sign.
How does this effect the Suns strategy this summer? My guess is that they will not chase Kobe, at least not seriously. They'll may just make their offer and then immediately go after the guys they think they can get IMMEDIATELY.
My guess would be that they will focus on Nash or Brent Barry. I'm not enthusiastic about Nash, but the Suns like him and it sounds like Mark Cuban has been slow at getting him tied down. This is a deal that has to be done quickly or not at all because the longer you wait the more likely Cuban will price him out of reach.
Most reports are that Brent Barry is going to leave the Sonics. It's partly over the length of the contract, but that is symbolic of a deeper rift with their management. BB is on the radar of at 3/4ths of all the teams in the NBA, but the teams with cap space are more limited. The Suns cannot afford to hesitate because Denver could be a very strong competitor here.
Signing their PG should be the Suns first priority. As much as I want the Suns to get a center, I am not sure there is anyone I want that they could get for a good price by acting quickly. Dampier and Camby only make sense late in the summer when their huge initial demands are either met or shot down. I don't like Okur, but his situation is the same in that he wants far more money than he's worth. Patience is the only viable strategy for any of these guys.
The mid priced guys like Foyle, Blount, and Etan Thomas are a mixed bag. Foyle and Blount might be picked up by moving fast. Neither is expected to get more than MLE from most reports, so a pre-emptive bid could change the dynamic. It means overpaying, but not as much as the upper end centers.
Etan Thomas is a restricted free agent. This means that the Wizzards would have 15 days to match. For that reason, he would be my third choice because I think the Wizzards will match.
What about everyone else? Kenyon Martin, Crawford, and Swift both RFA's. Martin seems likely to be be extremely expensive and would lock up most of the cap space during the waiting period. The Bulls seem certain to resign Crawford and then trade him. It is very unlikely that the Grizzlies would not match on Swift.
Some of the other guys are just not a good fit for the Suns. Brian Skinner is considered too small to play center even with the Bucks. The Kings are willing to pay Divac a lot of money to play another year. Troy Hudson is coming off an injury riddled year and is a "shoot first" PG anyway.
Other big men include Keon Clark (don't hold your breath), Michael Doleac, and Greg Ostertag. I'm not sure just how cheap Ostertag would have to be for the Suns to sign him, but it would have to be really, really cheap.
On the big side, I'm not very optomistic that they can get the job done through free agency. IMHO, Resigning Dice is hardly a dramatic move, but it makes more sense than grossly overpaying Okur or taking a bargain basement reject.
