From another board

[thegrahamcrackr]

I read a thread on this somewhere else about a week ago, and I thought it would be interesting to talk about.

The basic premise is that Tmac and Joe follow the same career path.

First off the similarities are there:

Great NBA bodies
Had to play good defense to keep playing time early on
Both had a rough couple of beginning years

The Stats

Tmac's last season in Toronto:

15.4 ppg
1.14 spg
3.3 apg
6.3 rpg
45% shooting

Joe's last season in Phoenix:

17.1 ppg
.96 spg
3.5 apg
5.1 rpg
46% shooting


When Orlando offered the max to McGrady, the general consensus was that they overpaid. The Raptors wanted to keep him around pretty bad, but they couldn't justify paying him the max when he would always be behind Carter. Toronto fans claimed that the Magic would be regretting the deal in a couple years when he was chewing up all of their cap, and that he would never be nothing more than a nice player. The next season he won MIP in Orlando, and the rest is history.....

When Atlanta offered the max to Johnson, the general consensus was that they overpaid. The Suns wanted to keep him around pretty bad, but they are having problems justifying the max for a guy that will be behind Amare and Marion. Some Phoenix fans claim that the Hawks will regret this contract as it will chew up their cap space for the next 5 years.......

Get the drift?

So, do you guys think that Joe could evolve as much as McGrady did? Also, can he evolve that much on the Suns roster? Or does he need to go somewhere to be a top option in order to blossom?

Btw, this is why I think Joe may want to go to Atlanta. It isn't just about being the man on a team, but it is about the chance to grow his game into being a top player in the NBA.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

As much as I love JJ, I just don't see him having that mentality. It's hard to ever get a feel for how JJ is feeling, and whether he wants to take over a game just because he always has that half awake affect.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

As much as I love JJ, I just don't see him having that mentality. It's hard to ever get a feel for how JJ is feeling, and whether he wants to take over a game just because he always has that half awake affect.

I know what you mean. I can't really remember Tmac's personality when he was in Toronto, but he also has that half awake look to him almost all the time. Remember that interview when he was being compared to Kobe? All he said was he wish he had the drive that Kobe did.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Who knows? Perhaps it is something that can be developed, they are/were both really young. JJ just doesn't seem to have that swagger that most elite players have. One thing all of us agree on is the fact that JJ has the ability to be an elite player in this league. That has never been the question. Does he have the mentality to be a max worthy player? I guess we'll find out...

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Who knows? Perhaps it is something that can be developed, they are/were both really young. JJ just doesn't seem to have that swagger that most elite players have. One thing all of us agree on is the fact that JJ has the ability to be an elite player in this league. That has never been the question. Does he have the mentality to be a max worthy player? I guess we'll find out...

I hear what you are saying. The reason why McGrady is used is because he seems to have that same passive style in his play. They are both just very smooth, and never look like they have the swagger you refer to.

I think that McGrady and Johnson have very similar personalities. I don't really know how Tmac dominates so much without the attitude, but maybe that means that Joe won't have to change his personality to be great?

 

[SunsPride]

So, do you guys think that Joe could evolve as much as McGrady did?

Joe's going to be a good player, maybe make the all star game a couple of times. but McGrady? you must be joking!

 

[Joe Mama]

JJ has great size, but McGrady is every bit as big, and he's longer. McGrady is also much more athletic. It's funny that when McGrady left Toronto he was actually known more for his defense than his offense.

don't think JJ has the same kind of outside that McGrady does /did, but I do think that he could be a very good NBA player. He's already good, but I mean part of a great two-man core with Amare Stoudemire.

Joe Mama

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Joe's going to be a good player, maybe make the all star game a couple of times. but McGrady? you must be joking!

Fair enough, but when McGrady left Toronto did you honestly think he would be like he is now?

 

[sunsfn]

I am not sure I believe that JJ wants to go to Atlanta. I think he may be upset that the suns did not pay him last year and signed Q, and his agent found someone to make sure he got a big contract. I think the suns will match and JJ will have a great year.

I think JJ is going to get better than he is and be an all star in a couple of years, maybe next year.

I am not sure why everybody is concerned any more about his mentality. He showed a lot of times last year that he can take the last shot, score against the best defense. (spurs in the playoffs when hurt)

I agree he does not show his emotions except occasionally, but he did more times last year than before, and I think he will show them more this year. When he is on the court he seems to be zoned in and does not want to get out of that mentality.

I remember that McGrady did not get playing time at the start of his career and he did not want to stay in Toronto because of that, and thought they did not play him as much the last year so he could not get a big contract from them.

-

 

[SunsPride]

Fair enough, but when McGrady left Toronto did you honestly think he would be like he is now?

He did show signs

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

He did show signs

Lol, and so has Joe......

Remember when Amare and Marbury were gone. Joe was unbelieveable.

I am not saying that Joe will become Tmac. However, when you look back to when Tmac was in Toronto - they are pretty similar.

 

[Treesquid PhD]

I think Joe could be a great star in this league maybe not as over hyped as McGrady is but everybit as effective.


The issue Sunspride is having is common amougst long time Suns fans, this is the grass certainly is greener on the other side and stars are traded for or signed not developed. JC has spoon fed most suns fans with free agents and trades that it is very hard for them to project talent inhouse. I am sure Sunspride also has this same issue projecting Amare's assent to super stardom. It's not his fault he is just never seen super stars actually developed before.

and no KJ was not a superstar.

 

[se7en]

I think Joe could be a great star in this league maybe not as over hyped as McGrady is but everybit as effective.


The issue Sunspride is having is common amougst long time Suns fans, this is the grass certainly is greener on the other side and stars are traded for or signed not developed. JC has spoon fed most suns fans with free agents and trades that it is very hard for them to project talent inhouse. I am sure Sunspride also has this same issue projecting Amare's assent to super stardom. It's not his fault he is just never seen super stars actually developed before.

and no KJ was not a superstar.

YES, KJ was a SUPERSTAR...

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Lol, and so has Joe......

Remember when Amare and Marbury were gone. Joe was unbelieveable.

I am not saying that Joe will become Tmac. However, when you look back to when Tmac was in Toronto - they are pretty similar.

exactly right graham....This is a very apt comparison and one i made a couple weeks ago. You can say all you want about how "tmac showed signs" and joe didnt but you would be wrong. The big difference between the two is McGrady is more explosive and creative around the basket, while Joe has that floater shot and an unbelievable eye for the pass. Joe wont reach that potential fully next season here, but he will show the signs of taking over that second option level this year. They will trade Marion and Nash will take a lesser offensive role, as he will then be 34. Then JJ/STAT are the Jordan/Pippen, Shaq/Kobe, Malone/Stockton type duos for the next 10+ years. If we win any rings in the next ten years its because of both of those two. I really believe Joe can develop ALOT more. Hes only 24......

 

[PhxGametime]

I just signed on, need read some posts but McGrady was a lot more athletic and one is asked to play a Jordan type of game (McGrady) and if JJ goes to the Hawks, he'll play a Magic type of role... at least I think that's what position he'll play?

 

[George O'Brien]

Oddly enough, I think this summer will effect JJ for both good and bad more than most of us have projected. I hope the good wins out.

Up to this summer, JJ has never been thought of as a "max" player. He was a nice player, very good all round game, durable, etc. But Max? Not really.

But now he is. Its not just the Hawks. The Hawks may be crazy, but they have not made any max offers to other RFA's. A number of commentators have said that if JJ was unrestricted, he'd be the hottest guy on the market this summer putting Allen and Redd to shame. I'm not quite sure what JJ thinks about all this, but he won't be the same guy that Penny could intimidate and was viewed as having no self confidence.

This summer should help his confidence ($70 mill can do that for you) and I would expect he will become more assertive about getting the ball. JJ scored a lot of points without being a major focus of the offense. This year I suspect he will be.

As I said, there is an upside and a downside. The upside is that JJ may very well emerge as true superstar. Give him half the shots that Q took and JJ gets into the 23-24 ppg range, which is what it takes to make the All Star Team.

Player G FG FT PTS PPG
1. Allen Iverson (Philadelphia 76ers) 75 771 656 2,302 30.7
2. Kobe Bryant (Los Angeles Lakers) 66 573 542 1,819 27.6
3. LeBron James (Cleveland Cavaliers) 80 795 477 2,175 27.2
4. Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas Mavericks) 78 663 615 2,032 26.1
5. Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix Suns) 80 747 583 2,080 26.0
6. Tracy McGrady (Houston Rockets) 78 715 431 2,003 25.7
7. Gilbert Arenas (Washington Wizards) 80 656 521 2,038 25.5
8. Vince Carter (New Jersey Nets) 77 696 367 1,886 24.5
9. Dwyane Wade (Miami Heat) 77 630 581 1,854 24.1
10. Ray Allen (Seattle SuperSonics) 78 640 378 1,867 23.9
11. Michael Redd (Milwaukee Bucks) 75 625 369 1,723 23.0

The NBA fixates on guys who can score and with only a small adjustment in tactics JJ should be able to score a lot and may be ready to take on the extra burden of being a first/second option.

The downside would be if he stopped being the kind of team player that made him so valuable. It's not easy to get the right balance, but I think the upside is worth the risk.

 

[Joe Mama]

JJ won't have to average 25 points per game to be an All-Star. He'll have to average 20 points per game, 5 rebounds, and 5-6 assists. If the Suns are winning, and he's playing good defense as well he'll make the All-Star team, especially as a $70 million player.

Steve Nash
Kobe Bryant
Baron Davis?
Tracy McGrady
Ray Allen (who knows what will happen with Seattle?)
Ginobili

How many All-Star guards are there usually?

Of course he would have the same problem in the East, especially when Atlanta is one of the worst teams.

Jason Kidd
Vince Carter
LeBron James
Larry Hughes
Gilbert Arenas
Marbury? (We'll see how could Larry Brown is)
Dwayne Wade
Allen Iverson
Steve Francis
Paul Pierce
Richard Hamilton
Billups

Joe Mama

 

[coloradosun]

The problem of JJ becoming a point guard in Atlanta is the is going to have be more a distributor than a scorer. He would become a Marbury type of PG if he is on the Hawks. What makes Joe a good backup PG is that he can take his man to the circle and shoot over him. He does not create opportunities for others when he is running the show, he becomes a scoring PG. I think that is great for the Suns when Nash is on the bench but if he is starter for the Hawks the other guys on the court with him are not going to get shots.

JJ is a bonafide 2 guard, I don't understand his desire to be a starting PG.

 

[George O'Brien]

The problem of JJ becoming a point guard in Atlanta is the is going to have be more a distributor than a scorer. He would become a Marbury type of PG if he is on the Hawks. What makes Joe a good backup PG is that he can take his man to the circle and shoot over him. He does not create opportunities for others when he is running the show, he becomes a scoring PG. I think that is great for the Suns when Nash is on the bench but if he is starter for the Hawks the other guys on the court with him are not going to get shots.

JJ is a bonafide 2 guard, I don't understand his desire to be a starting PG.

I'm not sure he wants to be a full time PG, but I thinkhe got frustrated with Q and Shawn jacking up threes all the time. Too often JJ was just another spot up shooter rather a go to guy until late in the season.

 

[F-Dog]

Joe Johnson doesn't have the size or athletic ability of McGrady. Most particularly, McGrady is on a different level than Joe where jumping and playing above the rim are concerned.


I think Joe can be a very good player, a borderline all-star. I don't think he's got a ceiling that will get him onto anybody's top-ten list in the future, though. Like Shawn Marion, Joe will never be a bargain with a max contract.

 

[George O'Brien]

T-Mac and Kobe are "super max" guys with contracts:

Tracy McGrady ......... 8/3/00,11/1/04 7+3 $92.88 mill + $63 mill '10
Kobe Bryant ........... 7/15/04 7 $136.4 million p-opt '09

The real question is how does JJ compare with Larry Huges, Michael Redd and Ray Allen? Pretty well I'd say. Allen is the only one of the three that has a bona fide super star reputation and he was clearly the Sonics first option. But he is a lot older (just past 30) and does not have a reputation as a great defender:

Ray Allen
Seattle SuperSonics
Position: G
Height: 6-5 Weight: 205
College : Connecticut '97
Player file | Team stats

2004-05 Statistics
PPG 23.9
RPG 4.4
APG 3.7
SPG 1.08
BPG .06
FG% .428
FT% .883
3P% .376
MPG 39.3

Joe Johnson
Phoenix Suns
Position: G-F
Height: 6-7 Weight: 230
College : Arkansas '01
Player file | Team stats

2004-05 Statistics
PPG 17.1
RPG 5.1
APG 3.5
SPG .96
BPG .29
FG% .461
FT% .750
3P% .478
MPG 39.5

Let's simply accept the fact that our previous ideas about who deserved how much is simply not meaningful this season. Even Simmons, who has had just one good season, got $47 over 5 which translates to $56 over 6. Last year Manu got only $52 million over 6 in a year that Kobe was the only wing to make more.

I'm reminded of the old business saying, "The market has spoken, dammit".

 

[azn822]

04-05 Joe played 39.5 MPG, 99-00 McGrady played 31.2 MPG. An 8 minute difference