Notes - from various sources, not my own
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Dating back to the beginning of last season, the Cardinals are 8-1 to the Over playing at home. If this trend continues, then we are in for a scoring treat.
Detroit’s offense through the first two weeks has been been neutral. However, when given the option, OC Ben Johnson wants to run the ball. Look for Detroit to try and establish the ground game early. The Lions are No. 1 in EPA/rush and No. 1 in rush success rate. The Cardinals are surprisingly doing quite well against the run compared to previous seasons. They are 14th in EPA/rush allowed, but they are top-five in RYOE/Att and have the fourth highest Stuffed Run rate in the league.
When they do drop back to pass,
Jared Goff should have time against a pass rush ranked 28th in pass rush win rate. Arizona’s secondary is going to feature a ton of Cover-3. That sets up for explosives over the top by
Jameson Williams.
If Arizona is to keep this competitive, their red zone defense will need to step up. The Lions are first in total red zone trips on offense (11) but rank bottom-six in touchdown scoring rate (27.3%).
Look for Cards to air it out against DC Aaron Glenn’s man-heavy, single-high scheme. They sport a -4% PROE overall, but this team has been pass-heavy on first downs so far this year.
It's going to be tough sledding for
James Conner operating behind an offensive line that’s bottom-10 in YBCO/Att created. The Lions are a legitimate pass-funnel defense now that star free agent addition
D.J. Reader is healthy and clogging lanes. Last week the Lions shut down the Bucs rushing attack holding their backfield duo to just 2.35 YPC.
This needs to be
Kyler Murray show. Murray draws a defense that ranks No. 3 in highest rate of man coverage and No. 4 in highest rate of single-high. If the pass rush doesn’t get home, Kyler could do some damage here. We saw last week he isn’t afraid to test defenses deep. The Lions’ cornerbacks will be tested frequently.
Terrion Arnold (illness) logged DNP, DNP, LP and is questionable.
Carlton Davis has taken a step back this year ranking as PFF’s No. 56 CB in coverage. I think we see
Marvin Harrison Jr. put up another outing filled with explosive gains. Detroit ranks No. 9 in highest rate of explosive pass plays surrendered to date and Kyler ranks fourth in highest percentage of 20+ air yard balls thrown (15.4%)
McBride sports a 29% target share against single-high coverage. He should find himself in 1-on-1 situations frequently against a man-heavy Lions defense that may be without MLB
Alex Anzalone (concussion).
This is the highest scoring game of the slate and the close spread signifies it should be a highly entertaining one.
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