Gandhi mock draft

Gandhi

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It’s that time of year where I participate in a mock draft game (https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/americanfootball/gm-mock-2025-drafttr-den-t2369.html). The structure is as you know it from the real one with 32 people being the general manager of the 32 teams. I was obviously again the Cardinals. Last year I was asked to write posts about each selection instead of all of it in one long post, so I will do that again. I will also copy each one into this original post, so you can also read it as a forthgoing story, if you prefer that.

A big part of the draft is obviously about filling holes, and in my opinion, the defense by far needs the most upgrades. Sure, I would like to find an offensive lineman or two, but if I have an offensive- and a defensive players ranked similarly at a selection, I will go with the defensive one

It’s only about a week ago that I posted my top five rankings here, but there have already been some changes, so I will note it again. Since before Christmas, Shemar Stewart has been my #1 ranked (I have not included Mason Graham and Abdul Carter because why would I? They will be long gone anyway), because of his enormous potential. I am probably in the minority, but I think that Ossenfort has done a fine job in raising the floor level of the team, so now it is time to add superstars. The players that make the small difference between a win and a loss. Stewart could be that guy. However, I have started to think that you only draft him if you have a lot of trust in your defensive line-coach, and Winston DeLattiboudere was obviously just hired. Instead, I think that more “proven” players are the way to go, which is why I have moved Mykel Williams and Kenneth Grant above Stewart on the Cards board. Picking them is the right thing to do, so to speak, even though Stewart might have the biggest potential of any player in the entire draft.

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Round 1

I had five players I would draft at #16, but both Grant and CB Will Johnson were gone. Therefore, the options were:

Edge rusher Mykel Williams, Georgia

To understand Williams, you need to understand that he played both hurt and out of position last season. For whatever reason, he spent a good amount of time in a 4i-role, which he can certainly do, but it doesn’t exploit his strengths to the fullest. I think he was used there partly because he is a great run defender, and partly because Georgia has 5-star players all over the defensive line, so to get them all on the field they had to move some players around. But make no mistake: Williams has the potential of a franchise changing player. He was awesome for long stretches of the 2023 campaign.

Edge rusher Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M

Well, I already covered him in the beginning. Stewart has the ceiling of an All Pro, but there is no way to argue against the fact that he hasn’t produced much stats-wise yet. His tape shows that he affects the game a lot, though, and his potential makes him a very attractive option.

Edge rusher Donovan Ezeiruaku, Boston College

I have no idea why so many are singing Mike Green’s praise over Ezeiruaku. I mean, I understand that fans mostly follow the professional analysts (that is not a critic, by the way), and fortunately, those analysts are starting to catch up to Ezeiruaku. The point is that they are basically the same players (almost same size, same production, same playing style, same workout numbers), but Ezeiruaku have done it through multiple years at a higher level, and he has longer arms and bigger hands. I don’t know. It is very confusing to me. The only reason I could be convinced to lean toward Green is that he might be more of a Gannon-player as he plays slighter more aggressively and violent than Ezeiruaku.

With the #16 pick, the Arizona Cardinals select

Edge rusher Mykel Williams, Georgia


The Broncos offered #20, #85 (third round) and #208 (sixth round), and I did consider it. In the end I chose to go with the #1 ranked player, though.

I explained it in another post, so bear with me if you have already read it, but the Cardinals use different types of edge rushers in their base-defense and nickel-defense. In base-defense, most likely Darius Robinson and Josh Sweat will occupy the two edges, but in nickel they will bring in one more, as Robinson slides a little inside. As a rookie, Williams can back up Sweat in base-defense and play opposite him in nickel.

Last season was an embarrassment pass rush-wise, and they need to add multiple players to improve it. Signing Josh Sweat was a great start, but he is a very good #2 and should not be a team’s best edge rusher. Darius Robinson and B.J. Ojulari could potentially become superstars, but I would not count on that as the Cards’ only hope. Mykel Williams have the making of a stud, and having an edge rush-unit consisting of Sweat, Ojulari, Browning, Williams, and Robinson mixed in on certain downs has a lot of promises.

By the way, later the Bengals' GM told me that he would have taken Williams at #17, while Seahawks would have taken Stewart at #18 (they took him at #20 after trading with the Broncos). Thus, it was very fortunate that I did not sell my pick.

Round 2

This was an easy pick for me, and I traded up to make it. I tried to talk to some different teams, and in the end, I made a deal with Dallas. They got mine #47 and I got their #44. Further we swopped pick in the fifth round, so they got mine #152, while I moved down to their #171 spot.

I think that the prize was a little steep, but on the other hand I did not have to lose any picks, and I got the guy I wanted.

Oh, and it turns out that the Falcons at #46 had two trade offers, but both buyers withdraw their offer when I moved up for Jackson, so I would not have gotten him with my original pick.

My options, when I didn’t know that the trade would happen:

Alfred Collins, defensive tackle, Texas

In January I noted in my rankings that DT Tyleik Williams from Ohio State was the best scheme fit of all players in this draft, but I was wrong, because Collins is at least as good, if not better. As I wrote in my mock draft last year, with the Cards’ second first-round pick I considered drafting DT T’Vondre Sweat from Texas, and Collins actually replaced Sweat in that specific role in Texas’ defense. He is a monstrous nose tackle who also has some pass rush to his game. However, like with Sweat last year, it is difficult for me to justify taking a nose tackle in the first two rounds considering what they do in Gannon’s scheme (Kenneth Grant would be the exception because of his wild potential).

Aireontae Ersery, offensive tackle, Minnesota

After multiple years in Minnesota’s outside zone system, I think he would be a good fit at guard, with the option of moving him to tackle if need be.

Trey Amos, cornerback, Ole Miss

He is a Gannon-CB with his size, aggressive mentality, first-class press-man abilities, and good zone coverage. However, you also need to develop the young guys you drafted last year. It doesn’t mean I will definitely not draft a CB later, but not this early (unless it is an absolute stud).

With the #44 pick the Arizona Cardinals select

Offensive guard Donovan Jackson, Ohio State


When the first round ended, and Jackson was still on the board, I started considering option to get him. He is the #23 ranked on the overall board, but #6 on the Cards board. I would not be shocked if Ossenfort selected him at #16, and I could easily see him being the pick if they traded down.

We all know the history with Jackson, Paris Johnson and Justin Frye, and I think it could be a great left side for many years. Jackson fit in pretty much any offensive line-scheme, so that is also not a problem. Actually, there is no such thing as a safe draft pick, but it’s hard to see this go wrong.
 
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BritCard

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Mykel Williams is going to drop to the 2nd. If he was ever in round 1 contention he's had a bad draft process.

In a stacked class at edge he's not a 1st round pick.
 

Cardiac

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Hey Gandhi, love these posts. What edge and DT prospects were taken at 20 and a little later.
 

BritCard

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Would you care to elaborate a bit?

The public draft community came in with Williams where he is on big boards based on his previous seasons and expecting a step up, and never really adjusted that until recently.

Then they got to 2024 tape and it's pretty underwhelming. His pass rush win rate was poor at just 11% and his run stop rate is nothing special either. Then he only ran a 40 and it wasn't a good one at 4.74. He hasn't done any agility testing which is a red flag.

He's fallen behind several other Edge IMO and into round 1, but it only take 1, I hope it's not us.
 
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Gandhi

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Hey Gandhi, love these posts. What edge and DT prospects were taken at 20 and a little later.
Thanks Cardiac! Great to hear.

Yes, I should obviously have put a link in the original post. That is fixed now.

Before my pick, of DT, Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant were taken.
Of edge, Abdul Carter, Jalon Walker, Mike Green were gone.

In the rest of the first round, edge Shemar Stewart and James Pearce (and Jihaad Campbell) went, as well as DT Derrick Harmon and Walter Nolen.

Nic Scourton and Tyleik Williams were taken in the first four picks of the second round.
 
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Gandhi

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The public draft community came in with Williams where he is on big boards based on his previous seasons and expecting a step up, and never really adjusted that until recently.

Then they got to 2024 tape and it's pretty underwhelming. His pass rush win rate was poor at just 11% and his run stop rate is nothing special either.
As I wrote, you need to understand the player and usages before you can properly evaluate him.

Then he only ran a 40 and it wasn't a good one at 4.74. He hasn't done any agility testing which is a red flag.
Williams ran the 40 in 4.74 at 267 pounds. Nick Bosa ran it in 4.79 at 266 pounds. Aidan Hutchinson ran 4.74 at 260 pounds. Myles Garrett ran 4.64 at 272 pounds.

You need to be a bit more specific about how his 40 is bad, and how it will hurt his draft stock, because I don't understand it.

By the way, do you also expect Will Johnson and Jalon Walker to fall out of the first round?
 

Shane

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As I wrote, you need to understand the player and usages before you can properly evaluate him.


Williams ran the 40 in 4.74 at 267 pounds. Nick Bosa ran it in 4.79 at 266 pounds. Aidan Hutchinson ran 4.74 at 260 pounds. Myles Garrett ran 4.64 at 272 pounds.

You need to be a bit more specific about how his 40 is bad, and how it will hurt his draft stock, because I don't understand it.

By the way, do you also expect Will Johnson and Jalon Walker to fall out of the first round?
Why isn’t he doing agility tests?
 

Chopper0080

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Why isn’t he doing agility tests?
Returning from injury. Biggest issues for Williams IMO is injury history and questionable bend off the edge.

EDIT: He hasn't played over 407 snaps in any three seasons. People are saying his lack of bend and explosiveness are due to injury, but the counter argument is that he is always banged up so you don't see the bend and burst.
 

BritCard

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Returning from injury. Biggest issues for Williams IMO is injury history and questionable bend off the edge.

EDIT: He hasn't played over 407 snaps in any three seasons. People are saying his lack of bend and explosiveness are due to injury, but the counter argument is that he is always banged up so you don't see the bend and burst.

Yeah, you watch him and he's stiff. He has good technique, which is how he wins against inferior opposition, but I don't think he has the physical skills for that to translate to the NFL. For me he's a Golden type player. 8 sack a year guy tops, not worth a top 16 pick.

But I think his main issue, for me, is that in a strong Edge group there are just more tantalising options. Which is why I think he falls out of the first, or late 1st with a strong headwind.

I think NFL teams will like Carter, Stewart, Green, Ezeiruaku, Pearce and Scourton over Williams.
 

Chopper0080

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Yeah, you watch him and he's stiff. He has good technique, which is how he wins against inferior opposition, but I don't think he has the physical skills for that to translate to the NFL. For me he's a Golden type player. 8 sack a year guy tops, not worth a top 16 pick.

But I think his main issue, for me, is that in a strong Edge group there are just more tantalising options. Which is why I think he falls out of the first, or late 1st with a strong headwind.

I think NFL teams will like Carter, Stewart, Green, Ezeiruaku, Pearce and Scourton over Williams.
I think teams will like him better than Ez, Pearce or Scourton just because he can definitely play a three down role right away with his size. The close one is Pearce IMO because it is tough to tell how teams will view his off field stuff.
 

gmabel830

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Before free agency, I was very worried that we'd take Stewart given his lack of actual sack production on the field. After free agency, especially with adding Sweat/Tomlinson, we don't have such a glaring hole where I would be upset taking a gamble on the potential upside of Stewart.
 
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Gandhi

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Before free agency, I was very worried that we'd take Stewart given his lack of actual sack production on the field. After free agency, especially with adding Sweat/Tomlinson, we don't have such a glaring hole where I would be upset taking a gamble on the potential upside of Stewart.
I understand your point, Gmabel, but I think that both he and Mykel Williams are relatively safe choices in the sense that they are both great run defenders. Of course you draft them to sack the quarterback, but if that doesn't work out, at least you can always use players that are good against the run. In that sense I don't see it as such a big gamble.
 

DVontel

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I think teams will like him better than Ez, Pearce or Scourton just because he can definitely play a three down role right away with his size. The close one is Pearce IMO because it is tough to tell how teams will view his off field stuff.
Yea, teams will definitely like him way more than Scourton at least. The way UGA plays their defense doesn’t really showcase individual abilities. They’re super assignment-heavy.
 

Stout

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I understand your point, Gmabel, but I think that both he and Mykel Williams are relatively safe choices in the sense that they are both great run defenders. Of course you draft them to sack the quarterback, but if that doesn't work out, at least you can always use players that are good against the run. In that sense I don't see it as such a big gamble.
We don't need another Zaven Collins, thank you. That's not an acceptable result.
 
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Gandhi

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We don't need another Zaven Collins, thank you. That's not an acceptable result.
No, it's not. I completely agree, Stout. My point is just that I don't see them completely flame out, Nkemdiche-style.

I heard an interesting point that their strong run defense also allows them to get on the field while they are being coached up. Both Williams and Stewart have enormous pass rush-potential, but they are also pretty raw, so while the jackpot could be huge, you probably need a bit of patience - which is where the run defense-skills comes in.
 

Chopper0080

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You hope. Or, I should say, you're projecting. No one really knows. I am so, so out on Stewart because his floor is literally Zaven Collins.
Not really projecting too much. It is more based upon their skill set shown in college. Both Williams and Stewart played essentially on the line in a traditional defense. Zaven Collins played off-ball and stacked in a 3-3 defense. So while Stewart and Williams would struggle more than Collins did if being asked to play coverage and in space, they have significantly more reps and technique rushing from a NFL edge position.
 

Stout

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Not really projecting too much. It is more based upon their skill set shown in college. Both Williams and Stewart played essentially on the line in a traditional defense. Zaven Collins played off-ball and stacked in a 3-3 defense. So while Stewart and Williams would struggle more than Collins did if being asked to play coverage and in space, they have significantly more reps and technique rushing from a NFL edge position.
It is almost all projection with Stewart. He had beyond subpar sack production, so you cannot say his floor is so high at this point.
 

Chopper0080

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It is almost all projection with Stewart. He had beyond subpar sack production, so you cannot say his floor is so high at this point.
I thought we were talking about his ability to rush the passer being better than Zaven Collins because it inarguably is?

If you are talking about my 8-10 sack comment, well that is because every drafted player's NFL production is a projection.

No one was saying that Javon Solomon should be a 1st round pick in last year's draft just because he led college football in sacks with 16.

Dallas Turner had 10 sacks in 2023 at Alabama. He got 3 his rookie season for the Vikings.

Micah Parsons had 6.5 sacks in his entire college career.

A reasonable floor for a 1st round edge player is believing they can be an 8-10 sack player regardless of their college production.
 

Chopper0080

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Every scout wants the perfect player. Perfect height, weight, speed, strength. They want a choir boy who is also a dog. They want the player to be young but also have multiple years of experience. They want a prospect to do everything in the draft process but also make smart decisions about their body and the risks they take.

This leaves people in the draft process to choose between two lines of thinking. You can focus on what a player can't do, or you can focus on what a player can do. You can focus on the strengths or you can focus on the weaknesses.

So, when it comes to Stewart, you can focus on his positive traits or you can focus on the fact that his final two seasons produced 3.5 less sacks than Micah Parson's final two seasons.
 

Chopper0080

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Travon Walker is probably the comp for Shemar Stewart. The production difference is 9.5 sacks over 3 seasons vs 4.5. Same amount of combined tackles, and Stewart had 1 less TFL. Walker went #1 and we are talking about Stewart being an option at #16.

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Stout

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I thought we were talking about his ability to rush the passer being better than Zaven Collins because it inarguably is?

If you are talking about my 8-10 sack comment, well that is because every drafted player's NFL production is a projection.

No one was saying that Javon Solomon should be a 1st round pick in last year's draft just because he led college football in sacks with 16.

Dallas Turner had 10 sacks in 2023 at Alabama. He got 3 his rookie season for the Vikings.

Micah Parsons had 6.5 sacks in his entire college career.

A reasonable floor for a 1st round edge player is believing they can be an 8-10 sack player regardless of their college production.
I mean, one is an NFL player and the other isn't yet, so it is inarguable that you are wrong in this statement :)

I will also quibble with your reasonable floor comment for a 1st-round edge player. It is hoped and believed, but it is not factual. His floor could easily be Zaven Collins.
 
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