Get Ready for a Wild Summer

[George O'Brien]

This summer promises to be one of the most interesting in many years for Suns fans. No matter what anyone says, it is impossible to know what is going to happen. However, the decisions could make or break the team for many years to come.

EXPANSION DRAFT

The Bobcats are required to take 14 players made available after each team protects 8 of their players. Teams are permitted to offer up to $3 million and a draft pick to get the Bobcats to take their player or not to take one of their players.

In addition to simply off loading player onto the Bobcats, the Bobcats can trade the players taken or waive them. Apparently waiving a player does not relieve them of the responsibility to pay the player, but does not count against their salary cap.

The best deal for the Suns would be to have the Bobcats take Eisley. He is pretty expensive, so it would depend on how much value the Cats would but on a draft pick.

The other althernative would be to pay the Bobcats $3 million to take White. This would be half of his salary and his contract is up after next season.

Expiring contracts have a fair amount of trade value, so White actually becomes more valualbe the longer the Suns keep him. Paying to get rid of him this summer only makes sense if the Suns have plans to go heavy into the FA market.

DRAFT

Currently the Suns are projected to have the #5 and #16 picks. (There is a remote chance that the Suns could also get Cleveland's pick if they get into the playoffs).

As it stands now, this appears to be a relatively weak draft especially at the top. The only "big men" worth considering are Howard and Okafor who are pretty much certain to go in the first two picks.

If the Suns do not have the ping pong balls fall correctly in the lottery, their only other chance would be to trade up. Of the teams ahead of the Suns in the draft, the Wizzards are the only team which is not looking for a big man and MIGHT be open to bundling the two picks to move up to get Okafor.

None of the other big men are likely to be much help to the Suns, so they may go for a "best player available" with the first pick.

Assuming the Suns do not use the second (Knicks) pick to unload Eisley or trade up for Okafor; the Suns may decide to trade this pick for future picks. The Suns are already very young and the second pick would have a hard time making the regular roster.

If they do use the second pick, it will almost certainly be a BPA pick. It may be used to free an established player to be traded.

FREE AGENCY AND SIGNING PLAYERS

In a recent interview, Jerry Colangelo was asked about Kobe Bryant and rather than say he cannot respond due to tampering rules, he stated that the Suns already have a shooting guard and would be looking to fill other needs. This might be a smoke screen, but it is not unreasonable.

Unless the Suns are going to make a run at Kobe, it should be assumed they will go ahead and sign Vujanic. He may be more of a Dwyane Wade SG than a point guard, but he promises to bring instant offense off the bench.

Antonio McDyess is expected to return to the active roster late this week. The quality of his play will determine if the Suns are going to be interested in re-signing him. If he is even close to healthy, he might be a real steal in the $1-$2 million range. (He is bigger than Kenyon Martin who will get $7-$8 million and at one time was much much better).

Assuming the Suns offload White, they are likely to be shopping for a less expensive replacement with a short term contract like Divac or a limited role player like Dan Gadzuric. Ideally they would look for guys who can play their offense (see below).

Trades that use the Suns cap space are also a possibility. If by chance the Suns are able to get the Bobcats to take Eisley, it would be possible for the Suns to include White as cap ballast in a trade since his contract will up next year. No one appears likely, but that might change by summer.

If the Suns get rid of Eisley, then another possible FA signing would be Brent Barry of Seattle. He has been subject to a lot of discussion prior to the trade deadline because he is pretty good PG and a great outside shooter. He is looking for a four year deal and will certainly get it. He would be a great addition especially with the inexperience of Barbosa and Vujanic.

OFFENSIVE SYSTEM

One of the most frustrating things about the Suns is that their offensive system seems to be a poor fit for their personnel. Much of it was built around Marbury's "drive & pitch back"/pick & roll style; yet the Suns personnel are better suited to a system that uses cutters and motion like the Kings run.

A high post offense that uses the center as a passer and shooter rather than just to do pick & roll would make sense for a team with Lampe and Carbakapa available to play #5. Signing Divac would be a major plus in implementing the Kings offense.

Assuming that Marion regains his outside shooting touch (he averaged 39% on threes for the last two years but only 31% this year), then he could be much more effective in an offense that does not require him to beat his defender off the dribble.

Voskuhl has been getting better with his mid range jumper and it is likely that Lampe and Cabakpa would be great at that role. (The issues for them would be defense). Lampe and Carbakapa would be great at the passing part of the offense and Voskuhl is likely to do "OK" if they work with him enough.

A true high post offense should help Amare and JJ out by pulling the opponent's center away from the basket and thus opening up the lane.

DEFENSE

D'Antoni has talked about moving to more straight forward man defense. None of the Suns are great man defenders, but this is something they can focus on over the summer.

OVERALL

The Suns have the talent to get back to the playoffs next season. They may have the talent to get further by the following year, but it will take a lot of things to go right for that to happen.

 

[Errntknght]

Let me be the first to congratulate you on a really well written post, George. For some reason I thought you were pasting in an article from a sportswriter and about 2/3 of the way through I thought, 'whoa, this guy has actually paid some attention to the Suns.' Then I checked back to see who was on the bylilne, discovering it was your own post. Congrats again!

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by Errntknght
Let me be the first to congratulate you on a really well written post, George. For some reason I thought you were pasting in an article from a sportswriter and about 2/3 of the way through I thought, 'whoa, this guy has actually paid some attention to the Suns.' Then I checked back to see who was on the bylilne, discovering it was your own post. Congrats again!

Thank you. I realized in my debate with Elindholm that I was working with a complex scenerio that does not always make sense out of context.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Nice breakdown George. Definitely the best post I have ever read by you.


One thing I would like to add, I am pretty sure they will try and get Vujanic over ehre whether they get Kobe or not.

Also, I think that Jerry's comment is unfounded. I can't remember the last time he actually meant what he said.

Along with Chap and a couple others, I strongly feel that JJ and Kobe could be a great back court. Two tall players, both big matchup problems, and both can intiate the offense. Both are inside or outside players.

A starting 5 of

JJ
Kobe
Marion
Amare
Anyone

would be very hard to matchup against.

There would be major penetration from the guards, but you couldnt back off of them because they could stick a shot from 25 feet and in. You would have to be able to defend Amare in the post, which would be very hard. You couldn't leave Marion because he could run the baseline for a dunk in like 1.5 seconds.

Not to mention a bench of Zarko, Barbosa, Vujanic ect. ect.

Also, I might be in the minority, but I think it would help Amare's game tremendously. He wouldn't have to worry about putting up 25+ points, since Kobe will get his, and JJ could also put up huge numbers. Amare instead would be able to focus on blocks and rebounds. He could easily get 18ppg without plays being run for him.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by thegrahamcrackr
Nice breakdown George. Definitely the best post I have ever read by you.


One thing I would like to add, I am pretty sure they will try and get Vujanic over ehre whether they get Kobe or not.

Also, I think that Jerry's comment is unfounded. I can't remember the last time he actually meant what he said.

Along with Chap and a couple others, I strongly feel that JJ and Kobe could be a great back court. Two tall players, both big matchup problems, and both can intiate the offense. Both are inside or outside players.

A starting 5 of

JJ
Kobe
Marion
Amare
Anyone

would be very hard to matchup against.

There would be major penetration from the guards, but you couldnt back off of them because they could stick a shot from 25 feet and in. You would have to be able to defend Amare in the post, which would be very hard. You couldn't leave Marion because he could run the baseline for a dunk in like 1.5 seconds.

Not to mention a bench of Zarko, Barbosa, Vujanic ect. ect.

Also, I might be in the minority, but I think it would help Amare's game tremendously. He wouldn't have to worry about putting up 25+ points, since Kobe will get his, and JJ could also put up huge numbers. Amare instead would be able to focus on blocks and rebounds. He could easily get 18ppg without plays being run for him.

I have little doubt that adding a great player like Kobe would make the team better. I just find it hard to really take the possiblity seriously considering the trial, the money, the other teams competiting for him, etc.

In any case, I think the Suns need to upgrade their shooting (especially after last night) so opponents cannot stop the Suns by packing the lane or playing zone. Brent Barry is hardly comparable to Kobe, but he would provide at least some of what the Suns need including experience and great outside shooting. He would be a perfect teammate for JJ because he does not have to shoot all the time to be effective.

As for Amare, I'm not worried about his offense. He is still learning but should become an outstanding offensive player. My concern is his defense and rebounding which is not at all adequate.

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by George O'Brien
I have little doubt that adding a great player like Kobe would make the team better. I just find it hard to really take the possiblity seriously considering the trial, the money, the other teams competiting for him, etc.

In any case, I think the Suns need to upgrade their shooting (especially after last night) so opponents cannot stop the Suns by packing the lane or playing zone. Brent Barry is hardly comparable to Kobe, but he would provide at least some of what the Suns need including experience and great outside shooting. He would be a perfect teammate for JJ because he does not have to shoot all the time to be effective.

As for Amare, I'm not worried about his offense. He is still learning but should become an outstanding offensive player. My concern is his defense and rebounding which is not at all adequate.

Wait a minute. Since you've been on this board, you have consistently and constantly touted the need for an above average center--it's your byline, and the main cause for all the arguements you are involved in. Add to that the fact that you've never (until now it appears) supported having Kobe Bryant on this roster. If you had to choose between Kobe Bryant and Marcus Camby on the Suns, you'd choose Camby every day of the week and twice on Sunday. I strongly disagree with that, but that's always been your stance.

Sure, we do need shooting, but that is inconsistent with your whole philosophy. I don't know, but this kinda reeks of hypocrisy. I'm most likely wrong here, but that's what it's looking like.

Good first post, though, even though a lot of it feels like backtracking and covering yourself.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I dont think Brent Barry is ideal for this team. Perhaps if we were competing next year, but by the time we are ready to make a lot of noise, he will be to old.

I do not want the suns to tie up 5mil a year for 4 years into an aging role player, even if it is Brent Barry.

I agree that Kobe is a long shot, but like I have said earlier, I honestly cannot see any other player worth getting. Everyone else will be to expensive, or won't fit right with this team.

Unless Kobe comes this summer, or somehow we get a hell of a deal on an FA, I would much rather sit on the cap room, and see if we can doing something via trade or next summer.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by Chaplin
Wait a minute. Since you've been on this board, you have consistently and constantly touted the need for an above average center--it's your byline, and the main cause for all the arguements you are involved in. Add to that the fact that you've never (until now it appears) supported having Kobe Bryant on this roster. If you had to choose between Kobe Bryant and Marcus Camby on the Suns, you'd choose Camby every day of the week and twice on Sunday. I strongly disagree with that, but that's always been your stance.

Sure, we do need shooting, but that is inconsistent with your whole philosophy. I don't know, but this kinda reeks of hypocrisy. I'm most likely wrong here, but that's what it's looking like.

Good first post, though, even though a lot of it feels like backtracking and covering yourself.

Actually I have said repeatedly that I think Camby is far too injury prone and not worth the price. I know I get accused of saying I think a third tier center is more valuable than at top guard, but that is more inference than anything else. BTW, I think Camby is at third tier center because he is so light. In any case, I am not the one pushing for Camby based on his projected price and contract length.

As for Brent Barry, if you re-read my post it was based on moving Eisely. Financially the Suns would still be able to move White and Jacobsen to clear enough cap space for an impact player. It would be a longer contract to have Brent Barry versus Eisley, but he is not so old that he would not be able to at least serve a Steve Kerr role late in his contract. But I would not give up the cap capacity to get a solid big man if the Suns cannot move Eisley.

Can the Suns get a solid big man? I don't know. I know it is really hard, which is why I don't think mid cap would get the job done. But after watching Ratliff get traded for cap space (he is probably only a third tier, but certainly better than Jake), I am not going to assume that it is impossible.

Can I see a scenerio where going for Kobe makes sense? Actually, summer of 2005 would be vastly better for the Suns than this summer assuming he returns to the Lakers for one more year. By then the Suns would know if Lampe is going to become a player, White will be off contract no matter what, and Eisely would only have one year left on his contract. In that situation, the Suns could do a mutli-team deal without giving up any core players.

All of this is speculation. As I said, I do not believe there is a 1% that Kobe is coming to Phoenix, so I would rather focus on things that might happen. I think the Suns will make some sort of deal for a big man based on what Mark West said and what JC said. I have no idea who they are looking at, whether they are thinking short term or long term, FA or trade, or whether the guys will be a role player or starter. But there is very little chance they will go into next season with only Voskuhl, Lampe, White, and Carbakapa.