Good QB review for upcoming draft

[BW52]

In the final tally i think we are all going to be disappointed because IMHO Cards will not pick a QB RD1 and will wait till RD3 or later to grab someone who can be developed.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Everybody talks about system qb's. I think I kinda know what that means, but probably don't. Of the qb's in the league now, who would be considered system QB's and who would be considered non-system qb's (what would be the word for that?)?

Actually all QBs are a system QB as many people in football will tell you. A successful or rather great QB is so because they are in a system which compliments their skill. The 'system' is what makes a good player great in my opinion

 

[BW52]

How many of these so-called Spread-offense QBs have had success at the NFL level? I remember how Andre Ware busted at the NFl level.Ty Dettmer hung around for several years as a spot starter/backup.I think Dettmer lacked enough arm strength.Off the top of my head i am drawing a blank on guys that played the shootout offenses that had good NFL careers.

 

[Solar7]

Actually all QBs are a system QB as many people in football will tell you. A successful or rather great QB is so because they are in a system which compliments their skill. The 'system' is what makes a good player great in my opinion

I disagree with that - there are some QBs that have had success in different systems and are just overall high quality players. Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, to a lesser extent, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, etc.

A system QB is a guy in a highly simplified offense that is tailor made to be as easy as possible. Some system QBs might have played in a West Coast offense - meaning they might not have the arm or athleticism or what have you to perform in another system... like Arians' offense needing a big arm.

 

[Gandhi]

Everybody talks about system qb's. I think I kinda know what that means, but probably don't. Of the qb's in the league now, who would be considered system QB's and who would be considered non-system qb's (what would be the word for that?)?

I wrote about that in another post. You can read it by clicking here. Basically, all but five or six quarterbacks in the NFL are system quarterbacks. It simply means, what I think you are indicating, that what they do are in accordance with a system, build by the head coach or offensive coordinator. It is another word for the so-called game managers. Players that are able to scramble around, buying time for themselves and their offense and create on their own are the ones people are referring to when talking about what you call non-system quarterbacks. I don’t know if there is an exact word for those quarterbacks. You could argue that only Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and maybe Carson Wentz fall into that category in the NFL.

Quarterbacks are called system quarterbacks when it is the system and the coaches rather than themselves that leads to success. When what the quarterbacks does can be attributed to the system and the playcaller. When talking about the draft the term is often a bit condescending and used as a critique of said quarterback, in part because there are many various offensive systems in college football, and very few of them has much resembles with an NFL system.

The reason why people are criticizing Mason Rudolph for being a system quarterback is that he has played at Oklahoma State the last couple of years. At Oklahoma State they run a system called the air raid which is entirely different from an offensive system in the NFL. Historically it has been very hard to integrate quarterbacks that comes from an air raid-system into NFL offenses and learn them to play in traditional pro style-systems. In the last five or seven years, though, the NFL has changed, and the coaches are more prone to deviate a bit from their usual systems to make the transition easier for the quarterbacks with a recent background in air raid-systems.

Some of the debate about Rudolph in this thread is about if he is a traditional quarterback from an air raid-system, and thus requires a lot of coaching and probably time to get acclimated to the NFL and used to a pro style-offense, or if he is an untraditional air raid-quarterback, and thus should be able to fit in fairly quick.

 

[WisconsinCard]

I would argue that Rudolph consistently proved that he is not your typical air raid-quarterback. Rudolph moves well in the pocket and holds on to the ball until he finds an open receiver. He scans the entire field while going through his progression. He throws a beautiful deep ball. Sometimes he huddles up.

I am not saying that he will be a success in the NFL. I just think it’s unfair to base a judgement of him on a system when he is not playing that system the way it usually is.

Except that he doesn't have your typical arm strength for a man his size. My biggest concern with him is too much arc on his passes. Those will turn into INTs in the NFL. Throwing to the far hash, the pass should not be above the fifth row IMO. I don't see an NFL arm in this kid, it's too bad too because if he did he might be the number 1 talent in this draft, because I think he has got everything else.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Except that he doesn't have your typical arm strength for a man his size. My biggest concern with him is too much arc on his passes. Those will turn into INTs in the NFL. Throwing to the far hash, the pass should not be above the fifth row IMO. I don't see an NFL arm in this kid, it's too bad too because if he did he might be the number 1 talent in this draft, because I think he has got everything else.

Rudolph's passes do have a tendency to float

 

[POISON]

Rudolph's passes do have a tendency to float

Is that why he throws such a low % of interceptions and a ton of touchdowns and receptions?

 

[WildBB]

Rudolph's passes do have a tendency to float

Article wasn't that complementary to either Rudolph (marginal starter) or Lauletta ( backup) who stuggles to push the ball past 45 yds.

He does give some props to Jackson, who could fit in most offenses if played to his strengths and his ability to create offense.

Sent from my SM-J700T using Tapatalk

 

[Jetstream Green]

Is that why he throws such a low % of interceptions and a ton of touchdowns and receptions?

Get off your university kick because it's clouding your judgement. It is hard to throw an interception when the passes to the sideline and hash are the ones which float on him, unless a player on the bench can be allowed to pick off a pass. Then why the hate for Mayfield when he is better in 'stats' than Rudolph in another QB friendly offense which works in college. I like Rudolph but like all these QBs they have the 'maybe not' about them. If the Cardinals draft him, I will take into account they know more than me and ignore the floating passes and support the kid

 

[WisconsinCard]

Is that why he throws such a low % of interceptions and a ton of touchdowns and receptions?

That is not the NFL though. Like I said, it is just my opinion, but if he had the arm to go with his size, he would be a top 5 or 6 pick. That is why I think he falls to late first or early second round. Someone might trade up into the first just to get that fifth year option.

 

[perivolaki]

The reason why people are criticizing Mason Rudolph for being a system quarterback is that he has played at Oklahoma State the last couple of years. At Oklahoma State they run a system called the air raid which is entirely different from an offensive system in the NFL. Historically it has been very hard to integrate quarterbacks that comes from an air raid-system into NFL offenses and learn them to play in traditional pro style-systems. In the last five or seven years, though, the NFL has changed, and the coaches are more prone to deviate a bit from their usual systems to make the transition easier for the quarterbacks with a recent background in air raid-systems.

Some of the debate about Rudolph in this thread is about if he is a traditional quarterback from an air raid-system, and thus requires a lot of coaching and probably time to get acclimated to the NFL and used to a pro style-offense, or if he is an untraditional air raid-quarterback, and thus should be able to fit in fairly quick.

My concerns about Rudolph are exactly what you're talking about here.

I don't have a huge concern about his arm or his ability to make all the throws. What I don't like when I see his film is that he is a first read thrower. He goes to that initial read at the snap and that's where the ball goes. Almost always. I just don't see him working through progressions like you need to do in the pros.

That's one of the things I do like about Mayfield. I see him go through a lot of quick progressions. His heads on a swivel. I have even seen him go through two or three reads and then come back to the first read and complete the pass. He also moves easily in the pocket while making his reads and keeps his eyes downfield. He has a feel for pressure. He also has a short quick arm motion that gets the ball out really quick. I've seen that short motion surprise defensive backs because the ball gets on them sooner than what they were expecting. They are more used to seeing quarterbacks that have to go through more of a windup when they throw. I think it's deceptive and makes him more effective.

 

[Gandhi]

Except that he doesn't have your typical arm strength for a man his size.

It’s a fair assessment. I don’t think his arm strength is that bad, and I think the stats backs it up.

In 2016 no returning quarterback threw passes of 20 yards or more through the air better than Rudolph. Of all quarterbacks in the power 5-conferences he had the most receptions and the most yards gained of any quarterback on those throws, and they led to 13 touchdowns. The same year Ben Roethlisberger had the best completion percentage on those throws in the NFL with 50.7%. Rudolph had a completion percentage of 57.3%.

Last season he threw the ball 20 yards or more through the air more times than the FCS average. He threw for 1650 yards on those passes. He had a completion percentage of 52.3 with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. On those throws Baker Mayfield had a completion percentage of 60.3, Josh Allen had a completion percentage of 46.3, Sam Darnold had a completion percentage of 50 and Josh Rosen had a completion percentage of 39.4.

Of course, in the NFL a quarterback is more often throwing intermediate passes into tight windows, and arm strength is of the utmost importance on these throws. Rudolph ranks fifth in that category of the draft eligible prospects with a completion percentage of 67.6. For comparison, Josh Rosen completed 60.6% of the same passes while Sam Darnold completed 54.3%

In 2016 on throws on third down of 10 yards or more, where I think it’s fair to assume that the quarterback will often throw beyond or close to the line of scrimmage, Rudolph ranked as #22 in the entire FCS. Of the four big draft prospects, only Baker Mayfield ranked ahead of him. Rudolph threw 37 passes in these situations and completed 23 of them, and of those he threw eight completions of ten yards or more and three completions of 25 yards or more.

I have not been able to find the same stat from 2017, but on third down throws with between seven and nine yards to go in 2017, Rudolph ranked as #20 in the country. None of the big four were ahead of him. Rudolph threw 29 passes in these situations with 20 completions. Seven of them were completions on at least 10 yards and two of them were of at least 25 yards.

Pro Football Focus might not be the most trustworthy source, but non the less they have made a chart ranking the quarterbacks in the draft on over-the-shoulder throws into tight coverage three or more yards past the line of scrimmage. They call it NFL throws. Mason Rudolph ranks thirds, trailing only to Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen.

 

[WisconsinCard]

It’s a fair assessment. I don’t think his arm strength is that bad, and I think the stats backs it up.

In 2016 no returning quarterback threw passes of 20 yards or more through the air better than Rudolph. Of all quarterbacks in the power 5-conferences he had the most receptions and the most yards gained of any quarterback on those throws, and they led to 13 touchdowns. The same year Ben Roethlisberger had the best completion percentage on those throws in the NFL with 50.7%. Rudolph had a completion percentage of 57.3%.

Last season he threw the ball 20 yards or more through the air more times than the FCS average. He threw for 1650 yards on those passes. He had a completion percentage of 52.3 with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. On those throws Baker Mayfield had a completion percentage of 60.3, Josh Allen had a completion percentage of 46.3, Sam Darnold had a completion percentage of 50 and Josh Rosen had a completion percentage of 39.4.

Of course, in the NFL a quarterback is more often throwing intermediate passes into tight windows, and arm strength is of the utmost importance on these throws. Rudolph ranks fifth in that category of the draft eligible prospects with a completion percentage of 67.6. For comparison, Josh Rosen completed 60.6% of the same passes while Sam Darnold completed 54.3%

In 2016 on throws on third down of 10 yards or more, where I think it’s fair to assume that the quarterback will often throw beyond or close to the line of scrimmage, Rudolph ranked as #22 in the entire FCS. Of the four big draft prospects, only Baker Mayfield ranked ahead of him. Rudolph threw 37 passes in these situations and completed 23 of them, and of those he threw eight completions of ten yards or more and three completions of 25 yards or more.

I have not been able to find the same stat from 2017, but on third down throws with between seven and nine yards to go in 2017, Rudolph ranked as #20 in the country. None of the big four were ahead of him. Rudolph threw 29 passes in these situations with 20 completions. Seven of them were completions on at least 10 yards and two of them were of at least 25 yards.

Pro Football Focus might not be the most trustworthy source, but non the less they have made a chart ranking the quarterbacks in the draft on over-the-shoulder throws into tight coverage three or more yards past the line of scrimmage. They call it NFL throws. Mason Rudolph ranks thirds, trailing only to Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen.

Those are great stats, just none of them really matter. I personally don't compare QB to QB because they're not playing the same schedule. There not in the same situations and they are not throwing to the same receivers. I like to watch game tape, and I like to make my own choices on what I see, then I like to read what other draft dudes say. I will add that I find watching QBs the most boring and really like to watch interior lineman, because without knowing the calls it's difficult to decipher what your really seeing, also it is hard to fine video of just the o and D lines.

 

[Gandhi]

Those are great stats, just none of them really matter. I personally don't compare QB to QB because they're not playing the same schedule. There not in the same situations and they are not throwing to the same receivers. I like to watch game tape, and I like to make my own choices on what I see, then I like to read what other draft dudes say. I will add that I find watching QBs the most boring and really like to watch interior lineman, because without knowing the calls it's difficult to decipher what your really seeing, also it is hard to fine video of just the o and D lines.

I almost think you have stolen my words, Wisconsin, as I have written the exact same points multiple times in other threads.

No, but I do think these stats are fair as to what prospect Mason Rudolph is. They are current, and they are relative to the other top prospects. Arm strength is not only how far a quarterback can throw the ball. Especially in the NFL it is often more important to make throws into very tight windows, and that takes a strong arm among other things.