Grantland: Arizona has a Numbers Problem

[crisper57]

As my engineering professor liked to say, "All models are wrong. Some are useful."

As a financial analyst, I say, "What story do you want to sell? I'll go make a model for it."

 

[kerouac9]

As my engineering professor liked to say, "All models are wrong. Some are useful."

As a financial analyst, I say, "What story do you want to sell? I'll go make a model for it."

LOL, crisper. Love it.

FWIW, Barnwell revisited this very question last week:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/1...onal-changes-everything-arizona-cardinals-nfl

 

[SoCal Cardfan]

Well....thanks for sharing all this, glad I didn't spend the $25 to find out how terrible we would be this year.

 

[Cheesebeef]

LOL, crisper. Love it.

FWIW, Barnwell revisited this very question last week:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/1...onal-changes-everything-arizona-cardinals-nfl

I miss Grantland.

 

[kerouac9]

I miss Grantland.

Me, too. Slate and Deadspin just don't fill the void that it's left behind.

Let me know if you find someplace.

 

[crisper57]

Me, too. Slate and Deadspin just don't fill the void that it's left behind.

Let me know if you find someplace.

Have you seen Pat Kirwan's new endeavor?

https://realfootballnetwork.com/

 

[Brak]

As my engineering professor liked to say, "All models are wrong. Some are useful."

You must be registered for see images

 

[kerouac9]

Have you seen Pat Kirwan's new endeavor?

https://realfootballnetwork.com/

Erm. Hard to navigate. There's good football writing out there (Barnwell's writing on the Mothership, Mays is over at MMQB.si.com, Chris Brown has a new book that I need to order now — the Art of Smart Football). I'm kind of looking for something in a clean format that's going to put out 8-10 articles a day that overlaps sports and pop culture.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Erm. Hard to navigate. There's good football writing out there (Barnwell's writing on the Mothership, Mays is over at MMQB.si.com, Chris Brown has a new book that I need to order now — the Art of Smart Football). I'm kind of looking for something in a clean format that's going to put out 8-10 articles a day that overlaps sports and pop culture.

me too. Grantland was like my morning paper for all sports, movies, tv and pop culture.

 

[Cardiac]

LOL, crisper. Love it.

FWIW, Barnwell revisited this very question last week:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/1...onal-changes-everything-arizona-cardinals-nfl

Interesting read, thanks for sharing.

My biggest takeaway was how Barnwell illustrated what some of us thought after reading the initial article with his explanation of why he was wrong in this recent article. That is to say statistics can be informative but they don't and can't replace what we can see for ourselves.

Many of us believed that the Cards would be good this year & Palmer would have a huge year. In addition the 9 - 1 start last year was real and not going to regress to the mean...........blah blah nerd speak blah babble.

Do enjoy the info and conversations generated by them.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

The Cardinals never played the Seahawks with Palmer is 2014.

They lost those games a combined 9-54 or -45

That is the vast majority of the point differential issues.

In 2013 with Palmer they split the series and were 39-44 or -5

It's a dumb article to be honest

Oh gee, you mean I know more about the Cardinals than some stupid sub site on ESPN. Crazy.

Good riddance to fake analytic sites

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Now if ESPN could fire whomever came up with QBR, that would be great

 

[Bert]

Oh gee, you mean I know more about the Cardinals than some stupid sub site on ESPN. Crazy.

Good riddance to fake analytic sites

 

[Arizona's Finest]

me too. Grantland was like my morning paper for all sports, movies, tv and pop culture.

Ugh totally agree. Was my go to site. Looking forward to team Simmons puts together on his new project. Really miss Grantland though.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Good call.
Through week 13: 9 INT 453 ATT = 2%

2015 (13 games in)--31 TDs 9 INT 2.0%

AZ Finest = prophet

Thanks!

And Cheese remembers I said after Pitt game this team was elite and would prove it. Now at a 11-2 I feel pretty good about that too.

Im sure K9 will tell you even a blind squirral finds a nut, but felt I had a good feel for this team after first 3 games. Lets keep it going!

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Not gonna lie. Very satisfying read to see Barnwell backpedal like Peterson in that article. All my refutations of what I thought at the time ended up coming true.

He IS the second coming of Kurt Warner and I made a big deal about his ability to get that level is based on that he has had historically good numbers in the past (albeit over only a couple years) so in the right system and situation, he has the pedigree to get it back.

Looking forward to the rest of the season.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I have no issue whatsoever with Finest and Cbus looking like Nostradamus here. This has been a season for the ages and I can only hope it continues to be.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

I have no issue whatsoever with Finest and Cbus looking like Nostradamus here. This has been a season for the ages and I can only hope it continues to be.

 

[ajcardfan]

I disagree. I give the credit to Arians and what he drills into his players' heads.

http://archive.azcentral.com/sports...ach-bruce-arians-wants-more-eyes-details.html

“There are no ‘little things.’ You hear a lot of coaches say, ‘It’s the little things.’ There are no little things. Everything is a big thing.

That's how you consistently win close games.

As this season has gone down, I think I was proved correct. We have been way more dominant, OVERALL, in wins this year than last year, and our two losses were very close and winnable. If we had played as many close games this year as last, we would have more than 2 losses, I don't think that can be argued too much.

 

[MrYeahBut]

Me, too. Slate and Deadspin just don't fill the void that it's left behind.

Let me know if you find someplace.

Coming soon to a website near you....

http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/17/media/bill-simmons-the-ringer

 

[Cheesebeef]

Coming soon to a website near you....

http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/17/media/bill-simmons-the-ringer

spring or summer?! that's still wayyyyyyy too far away!

 

[HeavyB3]

spring or summer?! that's still wayyyyyyy too far away!

Reminds me of that terrible movie about the guy who was trying to win the special olympics.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Reminds me of that terrible movie about the guy who was trying to win the special olympics.

oh man... The Ringer? That was truly awful.

 

[CardsFan88]

Each season is it's own universe. People cited statistics that the Cardinals couldn't repeat as a 10 win club, and despite everything, we even surpassed it.

Grantland can follow trends and history to come up with a guess, but this season has yet to be played, so they don't know squat.

I'm not concerned, because they don't know the future.

Personally I like looking at the guys we have that are hungry, motivated, and talented. Maybe we take a step back, maybe not, but I don't think their 'statistics' foretell anything. Maybe we aren't an 'outlier', it's their method that *shockingly* doesn't capture reality.

Still nice to know though, so thanks for the post k9.

Yep. Like I said, they were guessing and hiding behind a faulty methodology for a perceived legitimacy. They didn't know the future, and were quite off.

Funny enough, their highlighting of differential not only was wrong, but the Cards were at or near the top the entire season on that.

In the end, Grantland was the one who had a 'numbers' problem.

 

[Iceman]

oh man... The Ringer? That was truly awful.

Ha! Sad part is I actually liked that movie. Stupid as heck, but I like Johnny Knoxville.