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MIAMI – During better days, the standings were relatively straightforward for the Miami Heat, whether it was trying to avoid the play-in round or battling for seeding in the play-in portion of the Eastern Conference bracket.
That was then, when the wins were ample, when the build up to the postseason was all about seeding.
Then the 2024-25 Heat happened, and now there increasingly are dual realities.
Yes, Erik Spoelstra continues to push his team with a sole focus on seeding.
But, at the same time, another element has seeped into the equation, math that the Heat for the past half-decade have avoided . . . the race to the bottom.
And that has meant not only scanning where the Heat sit in the East, but the league overall.
Because, yes, the lottery could be looming.
Following Wednesday night’s loss to the Detroit Pistons at Kaseya Center at the start of this five-game homestand, the Heat exited with only seven teams with worse records.
So while the view in the locker room only is toward the playoffs, lottery odds are now unavoidable.
Willingly or otherwise, the Heat are collecting Ping-Pong balls.
As a matter of perspective, should the Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs remain ahead of the Heat in the overall NBA standings, as was the case as the Heat prepared for Friday night’s game against the Houston Rockets, then it is possible for the Heat to finish with the No. 8 lottery seed.
And what would that mean?
According to NBA lottery odds that have been modified several times over the years, the No. 8 seed in the lottery (eighth-worst overall record) has a 6% chance of the top overall pick and a 26.2% chance of one of the first four selections.
In the lottery, the first four selections are determined by a random-but-weighted draw based on overall lottery seeding. All remaining picks outside of the top four are determined by inverse order of record of the lottery teams.
As a matter of perspective, the Atlanta Hawks won last year’s No. 1 pick after that odds for that result were only 3% as the No. 10 seed in the lottery.
And yet, even with the recent losses, it’s not as if the Heat immediately are on the clock with a decision of whether to push for the playoffs or join in the tankapalooza that already is featuring the New Orleans Pelicans and Utah Jazz, teams that have clinched spots on the lottery stage, as well as the Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets, Philadelphia 76ers, Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors, all of whom have made clear their lottery intentions via resting players and concocting preposterous closing rotations in games.
But here is where it could get interesting, very, very interesting . . .
Teams in the play-in round that do not qualify for the playoffs, retain their lottery seeding based on their regular-season record.
For example, with the Heat currently positioned to play the Chicago Bulls the Nos. 9-10 East play-in opener, the Heat taking a loss in that matchup could leave them with as high as a No. 8 lottery seed, despite other lottery teams not even being in the play-in round.
But, should the Heat win that matchup and then win a follow-up game at the loser of the likely Nos. 7-8 Atlanta Hawks-Orlando Magic play-in matchup, they then could tumble from potentially No. 8 in the lottery to out of the lottery . . . and, with that pick, out of the first round.
The Heat’s first-round pick goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder if the Heat make the playoffs and therefore bypass the lottery. That well-traveled pick is one the Heat initially shipped out in 2019 to acquire Jimmy Butler.
The last two times the Heat were in the lottery, they came away with Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro.
Still, from the careful-what-you-wish-for perspective, the last time the Heat had a selection at No. 10 or better, they emerged with Justise Winslow at No. 10 from the 2015 lottery. Winslow currently can be found playing for the G League Wisconsin Herd.
The consensus top-four lottery prospects for this year’s draft are Duke forward Cooper Flagg, Rutgers guard Dylan Harper, Rutgers forward Ace Bailey and Baylor guard V.J. Edgecombe.
The upshot for the Heat is that a continued push for the playoffs likely would, at best, result in a first-round matchup against the East-best Cleveland Cavaliers.
Last year, as the No. 8 playoff seed, the Heat, after a pair of play-in games, summarily were dismissed 4-1 in the opening round by the top-seeded Boston Celtics.
Continue reading...
That was then, when the wins were ample, when the build up to the postseason was all about seeding.
Then the 2024-25 Heat happened, and now there increasingly are dual realities.
Yes, Erik Spoelstra continues to push his team with a sole focus on seeding.
But, at the same time, another element has seeped into the equation, math that the Heat for the past half-decade have avoided . . . the race to the bottom.
And that has meant not only scanning where the Heat sit in the East, but the league overall.
Because, yes, the lottery could be looming.
Following Wednesday night’s loss to the Detroit Pistons at Kaseya Center at the start of this five-game homestand, the Heat exited with only seven teams with worse records.
So while the view in the locker room only is toward the playoffs, lottery odds are now unavoidable.
Willingly or otherwise, the Heat are collecting Ping-Pong balls.
As a matter of perspective, should the Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs remain ahead of the Heat in the overall NBA standings, as was the case as the Heat prepared for Friday night’s game against the Houston Rockets, then it is possible for the Heat to finish with the No. 8 lottery seed.
And what would that mean?
According to NBA lottery odds that have been modified several times over the years, the No. 8 seed in the lottery (eighth-worst overall record) has a 6% chance of the top overall pick and a 26.2% chance of one of the first four selections.
In the lottery, the first four selections are determined by a random-but-weighted draw based on overall lottery seeding. All remaining picks outside of the top four are determined by inverse order of record of the lottery teams.
As a matter of perspective, the Atlanta Hawks won last year’s No. 1 pick after that odds for that result were only 3% as the No. 10 seed in the lottery.
And yet, even with the recent losses, it’s not as if the Heat immediately are on the clock with a decision of whether to push for the playoffs or join in the tankapalooza that already is featuring the New Orleans Pelicans and Utah Jazz, teams that have clinched spots on the lottery stage, as well as the Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets, Philadelphia 76ers, Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors, all of whom have made clear their lottery intentions via resting players and concocting preposterous closing rotations in games.
But here is where it could get interesting, very, very interesting . . .
Teams in the play-in round that do not qualify for the playoffs, retain their lottery seeding based on their regular-season record.
For example, with the Heat currently positioned to play the Chicago Bulls the Nos. 9-10 East play-in opener, the Heat taking a loss in that matchup could leave them with as high as a No. 8 lottery seed, despite other lottery teams not even being in the play-in round.
But, should the Heat win that matchup and then win a follow-up game at the loser of the likely Nos. 7-8 Atlanta Hawks-Orlando Magic play-in matchup, they then could tumble from potentially No. 8 in the lottery to out of the lottery . . . and, with that pick, out of the first round.
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The Heat’s first-round pick goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder if the Heat make the playoffs and therefore bypass the lottery. That well-traveled pick is one the Heat initially shipped out in 2019 to acquire Jimmy Butler.
The last two times the Heat were in the lottery, they came away with Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro.
Still, from the careful-what-you-wish-for perspective, the last time the Heat had a selection at No. 10 or better, they emerged with Justise Winslow at No. 10 from the 2015 lottery. Winslow currently can be found playing for the G League Wisconsin Herd.
The consensus top-four lottery prospects for this year’s draft are Duke forward Cooper Flagg, Rutgers guard Dylan Harper, Rutgers forward Ace Bailey and Baylor guard V.J. Edgecombe.
The upshot for the Heat is that a continued push for the playoffs likely would, at best, result in a first-round matchup against the East-best Cleveland Cavaliers.
Last year, as the No. 8 playoff seed, the Heat, after a pair of play-in games, summarily were dismissed 4-1 in the opening round by the top-seeded Boston Celtics.
Continue reading...
