The Market 2022-2023-2024-2025

[dscher]

That chart is for Multi-Family units...So, we'll have to see if that elevated default level is contained to that segment of the market, or, does it spread into single-family homes. Ironically, the banking sector has been reporting their quarterly and full-year earnings this week and almost without exception, they've all reported earnings that beat expectations. And with respect to loan performance, virtually all of the banks reported stronger than expected results there as well, meaning defaults on mortgages and all other types of consumer lending, are significantly lower than most anticipated.

Very strange with the banks, no doubt.. inverted yield curve and all for most of 2024. Very interesting.

 

[elindholm]

So I took a flyer on FNMA and FMCC back during Trump's first term when there was a case in front of the Supreme Court. The ruling didn't resolve anything and Trump lost the election so the shares floundered

With Trump's election there is renewed push to release the GSE's from their conservatorship which could restore their valuation as they are cash cows. My smallish position is up over 200% since the election.

Hedge Fund investor, Bill Ackman has long held a position in FNMA and is one of the most vocal leading the charge. He projects a value of $30 per share (currently around $7) which would 16x my position if it came to fruition.

Since I took a new position at work and returned to office a few years ago, I haven't been able to trade or research much which is why I haven't been active on herre. But I wanted to share.

This is not a recommendation to buy FNMA or FMCC.

We inherited a bunch of FNMA in 2020 when it was hovering in the 1.50 range. I dumped half of it because we needed to make small distributions from the IRA and there seemed to be no reason to hold onto it. But I noticed a couple of weeks ago that it was getting memed, and timed our exit well, cashing out at 7.33. Now that money is in VTWO.

 

[jf-08]

We inherited a bunch of FNMA in 2020 when it was hovering in the 1.50 range. I dumped half of it because we needed to make small distributions from the IRA and there seemed to be no reason to hold onto it. But I noticed a couple of weeks ago that it was getting memed, and timed our exit well, cashing out at 7.33. Now that money is in VTWO.

Well done!!!!

 

[Folster]

We inherited a bunch of FNMA in 2020 when it was hovering in the 1.50 range. I dumped half of it because we needed to make small distributions from the IRA and there seemed to be no reason to hold onto it. But I noticed a couple of weeks ago that it was getting memed, and timed our exit well, cashing out at 7.33. Now that money is in VTWO.

That's great! My basis is around $3K at $1.85/share. I am going to give it some runway, but will consider taking some gains around $10, if it gets there.

 

[QuebecCard]

Trump Winning!

U.S. stocks plunge as Trump tariff fears spread among businesses, consumers - National | Globalnews.ca

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 748 points and other indexes fell sharply as fears about tariffs impacting the U.S. economy spread.

globalnews.ca

 

[Yuma]

Trump Winning!

U.S. stocks plunge as Trump tariff fears spread among businesses, consumers - National | Globalnews.ca

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 748 points and other indexes fell sharply as fears about tariffs impacting the U.S. economy spread.

globalnews.ca

That's why I wanted Biden. My 401k was Rockin with Biden.

 

[Folster]

My current Roth allocation looks like this after a recent reallocation and simplification.

60% SPTM, S&P 1500
20% IXUS, MSCI Total International
10% QQQM, NASDAQ 100
10% GSY Ultra short duration/cash

I'm hoping I get an opportunity to deploy some of my cash in the coming months.

 

[QuebecCard]

U.S. consumer confidence tumbles for fourth consecutive month in March to a 12-year low

The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell 7.2 points in March to 92.9 amid rising concern over tariffs and inflation

www.theglobeandmail.com

More winning!

 

[oaken1]

So...anyone considering crypto?

 

[elindholm]

So...anyone considering crypto?

Hell no. Also, isn't part of its allure that it's not a "fiat currency"? If Trump makes the US buy up a bunch of it, doesn't it then become a de facto fiat currency?

 

[oaken1]

Hell no. Also, isn't part of its allure that it's not a "fiat currency"? If Trump makes the US buy up a bunch of it, doesn't it then become a de facto fiat currency?

Still non fiat... but both Trump and Elon seem to support it...so I'm thinkingbthe returns will benefit and they won't let it fail

 

[elindholm]

Still non fiat... but both Trump and Elon seem to support it...so I'm thinkingbthe returns will benefit and they won't let it fail

Cryptocurrency is designed explicitly to make sure no one has that power. You can create phony wealth on the order of billions of dollars with the short-term manipulation of shitcoin prices, but Bitcoin's market capitalization is $1.6 trillion. Trump and Musk can create short-term ripples, but that's too big a number for them to get long-term leverage on.

 

[Yuma]

I know our Treasury Department was tasked into looking into an official Crypto Currency to represent the US dollar. They said it would be mostly for electronic transfers of large amounts of money. I wonder where that ended up?

 

[elindholm]

Well I bailed on a couple of holdings today, BX Blackstone and ETSY. I took losses on both of them, but I don't see either of them righting the ship anytime soon. A recession is likely, which is going to hamper the real estate and acquisition markets (Blackstone's bread and butter). As for Etsy, I see the supply side drying up at least as much as the demand side. My impression is that most Etsy sellers are hobbyists trying to pick up a few bucks on the side for their work, and those pursuits are going to be harder to sustain.

 

[Yuma]

Well I bailed on a couple of holdings today, BX Blackstone and ETSY. I took losses on both of them, but I don't see either of them righting the ship anytime soon. A recession is likely, which is going to hamper the real estate and acquisition markets (Blackstone's bread and butter). As for Etsy, I see the supply side drying up at least as much as the demand side. My impression is that most Etsy sellers are hobbyists trying to pick up a few bucks on the side for their work, and those pursuits are going to be harder to sustain.

Just thinking, the small mom and pop Etsy folks may need the side hustle and try and sell more. Maybe more supply. It may be quashed by lack of demand.

 

[elindholm]

Just thinking, the small mom and pop Etsy folks may need the side hustle and try and sell more. Maybe more supply. It may be quashed by lack of demand.

Also possible, but the little time I've spent on Etsy suggests that there is already more than enough supply.

 

[dscher]

Buckle up