Henry a solid choice???

[CoachBigDog]

Has anyone ever really watched Travis Henry play....this is scary but he really reminds me of Terry Metcalf in the way he holds the ball away from his body. I think if he comes here someone has to break this habit of his or we will find a productive back who turns the ball over quite a bit...any thoughts on this?

 

[BigRedFan]

Im not impressed by only 4.0 ypc, is Buffalos line really that much worse than ours?

 

[SuperSpck]

Buffalo's O-line has been typically described as "talented but underachieving".

 

[slanidrac16]

You can't even mention Metcalf and Henry in the same sentence. Henry runs like a bowling ball going down hill. Metcalf was a jive and move rb who never ran over anybody.

 

[BigDavis75]

Buffalo's O-line has been typically described as "talented but underachieving".

But then again so has ours.

 

[BigRedFan]

Just a nice way of saying it sucks

Buffalo's O-line has been typically described as "talented but underachieving".

 

[Redsz]

Here is a comparison between BUF and AZ's lines.

Pass Protection - 2004:

BUF, ranked 22nd overall giving up 39 sacks with a 7.8% adjusted sack rate.

AZ, ranked 11th overall giving up 39 sacks with a 6.0% adjusted sack rate.

Run Blocking - 2004:

BUF, ranked 21st overall with 3.50 line yds, 61% power sucess, with 17% of runs going over 10 yds.

AZ, ranked 30th overall with 3.14 line yds, 50% power sucess, with 16% of runs going over 10 yds.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol.php

 

[BigRedFan]

good post. At least from that I dont see the evidence that Buffalos line is so much worse than ours that Henry will do better here. In fact it appears to be better for running plays.

Here is a comparison between BUF and AZ's lines.

Pass Protection - 2004:

BUF, ranked 22nd overall giving up 39 sacks with a 7.8% adjusted sack rate.

AZ, ranked 11th overall giving up 39 sacks with a 6.0% adjusted sack rate.

Run Blocking - 2004:

BUF, ranked 21st overall with 3.50 line yds, 61% power sucess, with 17% of runs going over 10 yds.

AZ, ranked 30th overall with 3.14 line yds, 50% power sucess, with 16% of runs going over 10 yds.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol.php

 

[Redsz]

But consider the two different RB's when comparing the two lines. Buffalo had Willis McGahee and we had Emmitt Smith in 2004. There is a HUGE difference in the calibur of those two backs.

Our line had to sustain its blocks for longer because at the age of 35, Smith simply lacked the needed acceleration and explosivness at his age to be effective. He took alot longer to hit the hole than a typical RB.

 

[Redsz]

Not to mention the addition of Ross is going to be a big boost when it comes running the ball (espically to the right ride which was a problem last year).

When we get a RB with some fresh legs this year (wether it be Henry or a RB in the draft) you will see a huge jump in the production of the running game.

Look at Troy Hambrick this year. Dude had 4.5 yds per carry simply because he could hit the hole much faster than Smith could.

 

[DMBills36]

When you look at those 2004 percentages, remember immobile Bledsoe was at the helm.

 

[Redsz]

Yeah, Bledsoe wasn't exactly known for being much of a mover in the pocket. That's why I was over the moon when the Cowgirls signed him.

Buffalo will also improve in running the ball because McGahee will be there from the start. Not to mention the upgrade at G you guys got.

 

[arthurracoon]

When you look at those 2004 percentages, remember immobile Bledsoe was at the helm.

Well, also consider that the Cards had inept QB play all season long.

BTW, whats your idea on JP Losman?

 

[DMBills36]

Well, also consider that the Cards had inept QB play all season long.

BTW, whats your idea on JP Losman?

I like what I see so far with JP. He's been working out and watchin tape since February. I think he'll probably make some mistakes, but all in all it was the right move to go with him. It might be better if he were fighting for the position, but I am confident regardless. It looks as though we're building a strong run offense, so JP won't have to do TOO much. I forget what Bills coach said it, but he said something along the lines of "With Bledsoe's immobility we were limited to an amount of plays that could fit on a postcard. JP allows us to call way more plays and plays that could've never been possible with Bledsoe. JP gives our offense way more options and opportunities."

 

[DMBills36]

Yeah, Bledsoe wasn't exactly known for being much of a mover in the pocket. That's why I was over the moon when the Cowgirls signed him.

Buffalo will also improve in running the ball because McGahee will be there from the start. Not to mention the upgrade at G you guys got.

now all we need is an LT

 

[Poorknight1]

He's a serviceable, probably decent, back that won't cost us anything more than a guy that Coach doesn't want anymore. He's not a superstar nor is Shelton. Opens up the draft to fill more holes with quality players. Pull the trigger asap, imo.


PK1

 

[jerryp]

...with 17% of runs going over 10 yds.

...with 16% of runs going over 10 yds.

You're misinterpreting that stat, or at least not quite explaining it. The 17% is the percentage of rushing yards that came beyond 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. It is not to say 17 out of 100 rushing attempts went over 10 yards, which is what your explanation looks like. If I'm just reading you wrong, my apologies.

The idea is that the offensive line blocking is only responsible for the first 10 yards and after that it's mostly the ability of the back to evade defenders. The adjusted line yards is all the runs with every run over ten yards truncated to ten yards. So for example you run 23 yards on a play. The first ten get credited to the offensive line for blocking, the last thirteen are only counted for purposes of the 10+ stat.

How hilarious is it that we here all this gum flapping over needing a "home run threat" when come to find out, we're pretty much at the league average for 10+ yards (average is 17%). So the truth is, the Bills weren't really any better than us at gaining yards on long runs. The disparity is between the power success and the line yards, both stats tied to the offensive line. I'd be way more worried about the fact we are a full 17% below league average on power success and almost a full half yard short on line yards. On top of that, we are stuffed 5% more than league average. The only stat we are close to league average is the one everyone says needs fixing, the long runs. I'm much more concerned with success rate.

Compare that scrub Henry to the savior of the Buffalo running game McGahee. McGahee did have a higher success rate than Henry (47% to 43%). So if Henry got 25 carries in a game we expect 10.75 of them to be "successful" and if McGahee gets 25 carries, we expect 11.75 successes. One more successful run per game. And bear in mind that 3 yards on 1st in 10 and 4 yards on 1st and 10 is the difference between "successful" and "unsuccessful" in this system. So that one run could be a critical 3rd down attempt, or it could be one less yard than you wanted on first down. What I'd really like to see is Henry's and McGahee's power success and stuff percentage.

Thanks for reading FO though, I'm glad some other Cards fans are reading it. Now post on the freaking comments so we don't have all Patriots fans there.

 

[JeffGollin]

Henry certainly didn't vault onto the scene with all the hoopla that a Ricky Williams or Edgerrin James did. But then again, neither did Priest Holmes or Terrell Davis.

Henry strikes me as solid and relentless (if not spectacular) - kind of like Priest Holmes and hopefully like a more athletic version of LeRoy Hoard (whom Dennis Green got pretty good production out of).

I don't think he'll turn out to be a million times better than Shipp or Hambrick, but my hope is that he'll be better enough to make our running game about 25 - 30% better.

We don't need the second coming of Jimmy Brown. All we need is a running attack that's good enough to make our offense click and win us 5 or 6 more games than we won last year.

 

[Pariah]

If Henry can hit the hole faster than Emmitt (and I have no doubt that he can), he'll do fine--even if the line hasn't really improved much. Last year the line opened running lanes, but many times they clsed before Emmitt got there.

If the line hasn't improved (assuming it hasn't taken a step backwards), I'm not worried about the riunning game with Henry or a day-1 RB draft pick. If the line hasn't improved, I am worried about Warner.