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A few weeks ago, the Buffalo Bills admitted defeat on Kaiir Elam, their bust of a first-round draft pick from 2022.
Taken No. 23 overall, after the Bills traded up a couple spots to procure him, the cornerback never made an impact and almost all of his playing time came as a result of injuries to other players such as Christian Benford, Tre’Davious White, Dane Jackson and Rasul Douglas.
That miss has been part of a strange pattern for general manager Brandon Beane in that his best picks have not always been the first one he’s made in a given draft.
Defensive tackle Ed Oliver is a good player but he has never lived up to being the No. 9 overall pick in 2019. With no first-rounder in 2020 Beane took edge rusher AJ Epenesa in the second and he has been nothing more than a rotational piece. In 2021 edge rusher Greg Rousseau was a hit, but second-rounder Boogie Basham, another edge rusher which never made sense, was a bust.
Then came the Elam whiff, followed by the selection of tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round in 2023, a player who still has to prove he can play up to that draft status. And one year into the careers of wide receiver Keon Coleman and safety Cole Bishop, both taken in the second round of 2024, it’s too early to determine whether those were wise choices.
“I think ultimately that’s on me,” Beane admitted. “Even if the impact was higher, I would want it to be higher than it is. I think ultimately, sometimes you have to let things play out a little bit. I think we can be quick to judge and young players. Let's see what year two looks like, and year three for Dalton Kincaid, before we decide the fate of the status of their career.”
Beane has softened the blow with some of his successes in the middle and late rounds, players like offensive tackle Spencer Brown, linebacker Terrel Bernard, cornerbacks Taron Johnson and Christian Benford, and wide receiver Khalil Shakir, but if the Bills hope to finally end their Super Bowl drought, he needs to nail his first few picks next week.
Here are four things he should avoid in the 2025 draft:
The Bills have two no-doubt needs at defensive tackle and cornerback, and they could even go wide receiver if that’s how the board falls. Beane must stay focused rather than getting cute and leaning on the old “best player available” mantra.
For the 2025 team, the best player available needs to be the best player at one of those three positions and it may very well end up being tackle because there are more players who are projected to land right around No. 30, a group that could include Kenneth Grant, Derrick Harmon, or Walter Nolen.
Sure, an edge rusher at No. 30 might be enticing, but the Bills are in good shape at that spot with Greg Rousseau, Epenesa, Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht (after he serves his six-game suspension) and 2024 fifth-rounder Javon Solomon on the periphery. They can add at edge in the 2026 draft when Bosa and Epenesa are probably gone.
There has even been talk of upgrading at safety or bulking up at linebacker, but doing so in the first round feels like the wrong use of a prime asset. Keep it simple and fill a an obvious need.
Shakir has turned into a terrific player as a fifth-round pick and Gabe Davis gave the Bills decent production as a fourth-round pick in 2020, but they are outliers. The Bills need to add a burner on the outside who is more than just a track star, and that’s usually hard to do after the second round.
Ideally with their first three picks they get a defensive tackle, cornerback and wide receiver and unless Texas’ Matthew Golden is somehow sitting there at No. 30 in the first round where he’d be tough to ignore, Beane can wait until the second round to get the deep threat Josh Allen would love to have.
Depending on whether he wants to package a trade to move up in the second, he could land someone like Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka or Missouri’s Luther Burden III, or he could stay put with his picks at 56 and 62 and take one of the Iowa State stars, Jaylin Noel or Jayden Higgins.
Those are all players who would likely come right in and help, but if he waits until the fourth round - the Bills don’t currently have a third-round pick - the chances of getting someone useful diminishes greatly.
There has been some speculation that Beane might bring in a rookie to be Allen’s eventual backup and that would enable him to cut Mitchell Trubisky or Mike White and open up a little salary cap space.
Also, the reigning league MVP no longer needs a veteran to help him with preparation, so perhaps the time is right to do this, but I disagree. It is exceedingly rare that third-day quarterbacks ever become anything in the NFL, so why bother right now when Allen is just shy of 29 years old?
With the Bills in a win-now Super Bowl mode, if the unthinkable happens and Allen gets hurt, they’re in big trouble but they’d probably have a better chance of staying afloat with a veteran rather than a rookie in 2025.
Trubisky and White are both free agents after this season, so adding a rookie would make a little more sense in the 2026 draft.
This is another area where the Bills don’t need to waste a draft pick and can leave alone until 2026.
The Bills return all five of their starters in Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern, O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown. They also have their top four reserves back in Alec Anderson, Ryan Van Demark, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger and Tylan Grable, those last two being 2024 draft picks.
They even have a couple developmental players in the system who they had stashed on the practice squad last season such as Richard Gouraige and Mike Edwards, plus international player/project Travis Clayton. That’s more than enough competition for everyone.
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at [email protected], and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social. Sign up for his Bills Blast newsletter here: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Buffalo Bills draft could go wrong if these four ways
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Taken No. 23 overall, after the Bills traded up a couple spots to procure him, the cornerback never made an impact and almost all of his playing time came as a result of injuries to other players such as Christian Benford, Tre’Davious White, Dane Jackson and Rasul Douglas.
That miss has been part of a strange pattern for general manager Brandon Beane in that his best picks have not always been the first one he’s made in a given draft.
Defensive tackle Ed Oliver is a good player but he has never lived up to being the No. 9 overall pick in 2019. With no first-rounder in 2020 Beane took edge rusher AJ Epenesa in the second and he has been nothing more than a rotational piece. In 2021 edge rusher Greg Rousseau was a hit, but second-rounder Boogie Basham, another edge rusher which never made sense, was a bust.
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Then came the Elam whiff, followed by the selection of tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round in 2023, a player who still has to prove he can play up to that draft status. And one year into the careers of wide receiver Keon Coleman and safety Cole Bishop, both taken in the second round of 2024, it’s too early to determine whether those were wise choices.
“I think ultimately that’s on me,” Beane admitted. “Even if the impact was higher, I would want it to be higher than it is. I think ultimately, sometimes you have to let things play out a little bit. I think we can be quick to judge and young players. Let's see what year two looks like, and year three for Dalton Kincaid, before we decide the fate of the status of their career.”
Beane has softened the blow with some of his successes in the middle and late rounds, players like offensive tackle Spencer Brown, linebacker Terrel Bernard, cornerbacks Taron Johnson and Christian Benford, and wide receiver Khalil Shakir, but if the Bills hope to finally end their Super Bowl drought, he needs to nail his first few picks next week.
Here are four things he should avoid in the 2025 draft:
1. Not filling an obvious need in the first round
The Bills have two no-doubt needs at defensive tackle and cornerback, and they could even go wide receiver if that’s how the board falls. Beane must stay focused rather than getting cute and leaning on the old “best player available” mantra.
For the 2025 team, the best player available needs to be the best player at one of those three positions and it may very well end up being tackle because there are more players who are projected to land right around No. 30, a group that could include Kenneth Grant, Derrick Harmon, or Walter Nolen.
Sure, an edge rusher at No. 30 might be enticing, but the Bills are in good shape at that spot with Greg Rousseau, Epenesa, Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht (after he serves his six-game suspension) and 2024 fifth-rounder Javon Solomon on the periphery. They can add at edge in the 2026 draft when Bosa and Epenesa are probably gone.
There has even been talk of upgrading at safety or bulking up at linebacker, but doing so in the first round feels like the wrong use of a prime asset. Keep it simple and fill a an obvious need.
2. Waiting too long to add speed at wide receiver
Shakir has turned into a terrific player as a fifth-round pick and Gabe Davis gave the Bills decent production as a fourth-round pick in 2020, but they are outliers. The Bills need to add a burner on the outside who is more than just a track star, and that’s usually hard to do after the second round.
Ideally with their first three picks they get a defensive tackle, cornerback and wide receiver and unless Texas’ Matthew Golden is somehow sitting there at No. 30 in the first round where he’d be tough to ignore, Beane can wait until the second round to get the deep threat Josh Allen would love to have.
Depending on whether he wants to package a trade to move up in the second, he could land someone like Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka or Missouri’s Luther Burden III, or he could stay put with his picks at 56 and 62 and take one of the Iowa State stars, Jaylin Noel or Jayden Higgins.
Those are all players who would likely come right in and help, but if he waits until the fourth round - the Bills don’t currently have a third-round pick - the chances of getting someone useful diminishes greatly.
3. Spending a pick on a backup quarterback
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There has been some speculation that Beane might bring in a rookie to be Allen’s eventual backup and that would enable him to cut Mitchell Trubisky or Mike White and open up a little salary cap space.
Also, the reigning league MVP no longer needs a veteran to help him with preparation, so perhaps the time is right to do this, but I disagree. It is exceedingly rare that third-day quarterbacks ever become anything in the NFL, so why bother right now when Allen is just shy of 29 years old?
With the Bills in a win-now Super Bowl mode, if the unthinkable happens and Allen gets hurt, they’re in big trouble but they’d probably have a better chance of staying afloat with a veteran rather than a rookie in 2025.
Trubisky and White are both free agents after this season, so adding a rookie would make a little more sense in the 2026 draft.
4. Adding to an already crowded offensive line
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This is another area where the Bills don’t need to waste a draft pick and can leave alone until 2026.
The Bills return all five of their starters in Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern, O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown. They also have their top four reserves back in Alec Anderson, Ryan Van Demark, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger and Tylan Grable, those last two being 2024 draft picks.
They even have a couple developmental players in the system who they had stashed on the practice squad last season such as Richard Gouraige and Mike Edwards, plus international player/project Travis Clayton. That’s more than enough competition for everyone.
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at [email protected], and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social. Sign up for his Bills Blast newsletter here: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Buffalo Bills draft could go wrong if these four ways
Continue reading...
