schillingfan said:
Stan, here is the problem. OBP is very volatile.
Last year Shea hit .310. Prior to that he was between .260-280 as a hitter. When you have little plate discipline and your OBP is mostly made up of high BA, when you have bad BA years, you have atrocious OBP. Shea's career OBP is .322. Yuck. Will he hit .310 consistently in his career? Unlikely. So that means in years when he bats under .300 he's going to have an OBP of .320 or less since his OBP runs only about .30 point higher than his BA. That's just unacceptable.
Also, we shouldn't overlook some other situation stats....Especially RISP and LIP....
Let's compare the 2....
Shea Hillenbrand
vs.
Chad Tracy
I would rather have Tracy (who will be turning 25 in May) who has so much upside (earning the ML minimum) than Shea Hillenbrand (turning 30 in July) who is pretty much nearing past the prime of his career (who is due $4 mil in arbitration).... Evidently...Tracy also has been working-out this past season to add the necessary bulk so he can generate more power (which is mandatory for a 1B).......
Also...Hillenbrand is major defensive liabity that the GM of Blue Jays (Ricciardi) immediately penciled him at DH w/out the idea of trying Hillenbrand at 1B (converting Hinske to a 1B instead).....
At least the Dbacks netted someone who might just need some adjustments on his mechanics (Peterson), but has something the Dbacks somewhat lack in their organization (a high velocity pitcher..something that obviously cant be taught).... I applaud them for acquiring him over Clif Floyd (which had been widely rumored for awhile), because it would have been absurd to inherit his lucractive contract (at a position that isnt of need).....
Also, we must not forget that some of Hillenbrand's product was inflated the last couple of years because the Dbacks didn't really have anyone thrive in driving in runs (especially after Sexson and Gonzo went down).....