How Did Lawal Slip to #46?

[Irish]

Givony of Draft Express ranked Lawal as the 4th best rookie in Summer Leagues. ESPN ranked him 13th best rookie. So he may be a summertime wonder, it is at least curious how he could slip to 46. Nobody seems to have a real theory as to why.

Obviously, there have been some excellant players slip into the second round; but generally the reason is usually obvious.

1. LATE BLOOMER: Scouts have a limited amount of time, so after they have reviewed a player in HS and their first two years, the player gets steeiotyped.

2. PLAYED OUT OF POSITION: Boozer was played as a short center in college (where he put on weight to handle the pushing). He lost weight and became a forwad.

3. NOT POLISHED: Some guys play for college coaches who don't expand their sill sets.

4. WEAK SUPPORT: A player with weak guard play or too many ball hogs can reallly make a player look bad.

5. INJURIES: Some guys "play with pain" to help his college team, but doesn't disclose it and gets a bad reputation.

6. EUROPEAN: A lot of GM's won't draft an international player because of the extra issues of guys not prepared for NBA rules. Dragic looked lost two years ago.

In the case of Lawl, other than bad guard play, it's not obvious why he slipped through the cracks. Considering all, it makes one wonder what the isssue was. IMHO, it was due to so many prospect that he just got lost. So decided to look at who was drafted ahead of Lawal and effectively Collins.

LOTS OF BIGS DRAFTED IN 2010 There were 8 power forwards and 11 centers (plus at least one SF who is an SF/PF) taken ahead of Lawal. Also there were 5 point guards taken (most are listed PG/SG). Following Lawal, there were 7 more bigs taken before Collins.

When Bigs are analyzed together using the Draft Express pace adjusted by 40 minutes analysis; Lawal is 11th in Rebounding and Collins is 9th. In pace adjusted by 40 minute for points, Lawal is 9th among bigs with Collins ranked 8th.

One curiosity is that both Lawal and Collns ranked well ahead Favors (#3 pick who played with Lawal at Georgia Tech.) In a lot of ways Favors was picked because of his success as a HS guy more than his college play. The general bias toward really young guys remains apparent. Taken before Lawall were 23 Fr and Soph and 4 internationals. Only 4 Seniors were taken in the first round and none before 23.

Obviously some first round picks are simply blunders and some teams just don't do well with late picks. So I wouldn't put much into how late the Lawal pick proved to be. He appears to be a real find.

 

[slinslin]

Because he is not that good..

 

[Russ Smith]

My take.

Lawal is perceived as a tweener, he's likely not big enough to play the 4, but not skilled enough to play the 3. His FG% dropped every season he was in college because as he played more minutes, he tried to show he could do more than score inside and instead showed he struggled outside. His FT% went down every year too.

He had a "Bad" junior year in a down ACC where you would have expected a 21 year old junior with his athleticism to dominate. Scoring down rebounding down shooting percentages down. He was also worse in ACC play than in non conference play his averages went down in league play. He also had a better soph year than junior year which created the perception he got "worse" because Favors joined the team and was just better than Lawal.

There is also a glaring weakness in Lawal's game, he doesn't have a lot of feel for the game. He played 99 games in his college career and had 43 assists to 211 to's that's a terrible ratio for a guy who may be an undersized 4.


Favors is taller and more athletic, now he's still very raw and no doubt you're right that being more than 2 years younger is a big factor, but he's just plain more talented and Favors is big enough to play an NBA position, the 4. Favors also had a 4 inch reach advantage over Lawal which in conjunction with his better vert numbers suggests he'll play bigger in the NBA than Lawal. Favors also got better as the season went on playing outstanding in the ACC tourney including career high scoring numbers in the tourney loss to Duke. He got better as the season went on(although his scoring was down slightly in conf play rebounding and shooting were up). The perception was he was a great athlete who got better as the year went on and Lawal was a guy who looked good playing inside in college but when he tried to show a more complete game, he couldn't.

He did look good in summer league and Favors frankly looked overwhelmed from what I saw, too raw, so it will be interesting to see how they both pan out.

 

[Chaplin]

Because he is not that good..

Spoken like a true talent evaluator.

 

[binkar]

#6

 

[Mainstreet]

I vote:

"3. NOT POLISHED: Some guys play for college coaches who don't expand their sill sets."

Playing with Derrick Favors didn't help his cause.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

he made me search for it, but . . .

In the case of Lawl,

. . . YES!

 

[SunsTzu]

My take.

Lawal is perceived as a tweener, he's likely not big enough to play the 4, but not skilled enough to play the 3.

Slightly undersized 4 maybe, but I don't see him as a tweener at all. He is 6'9 with a 8'11.5" reach and has nothing in his game that looks remotely like a SF.

I'm not sure you can really describe a guy that was projected as a 2nd round pick and is taken in the 2nd round as falling. If you want to know why he wasn't projected higher it's because he has limited skills and isn't perceived to have much of a ceiling.

I think the absolute best you can hope for is a Paul Millsap type but more likely you get a slightly bigger Jason Maxiell.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Slightly undersized 4 maybe, but I don't see him as a tweener at all. He is 6'9 with a 8'11.5" reach and has nothing in his game that looks remotely like a SF.

I'm not sure you can really describe a guy that was projected as a 2nd round pick and is taken in the 2nd round as falling. If you want to know why he wasn't projected higher it's because he has limited skills and isn't perceived to have much of a ceiling.

I think the absolute best you can hope for is a Paul Millsap type but more likely you get a slightly bigger Jason Maxiell.

i think he's described as "falling" because in previous years' drafts he was projected as a first rounder.

 

[SunsTzu]

i think he's described as "falling" because in previous years' drafts he was projected as a first rounder.

In that case pretty much every player who returns to school falls because scouts have more time to find holes in their games. It seems much more rare that a guy that returns to school raises his stock.

 

[Russ Smith]

Slightly undersized 4 maybe, but I don't see him as a tweener at all. He is 6'9 with a 8'11.5" reach and has nothing in his game that looks remotely like a SF.

I'm not sure you can really describe a guy that was projected as a 2nd round pick and is taken in the 2nd round as falling. If you want to know why he wasn't projected higher it's because he has limited skills and isn't perceived to have much of a ceiling.

I think the absolute best you can hope for is a Paul Millsap type but more likely you get a slightly bigger Jason Maxiell.

He's 6'7.5 without shoes though which is undersized for a PF that isn't particularly powerful. Millsap may be a good comparison but it remains to be seen if Lawal has anywhere near that level of game.

I agree he doesn't have the game of a 3, that's the problem, he doesn't have the size or length of a 4. I think he's more athletic than his vertical numbers at the combine show, but I don't know if he's a guy who can effectively play the 4 in the NBA.

I don't dislike him I just think there's very obvious reasons why Favors went so much higher and I'm one who thinks Favors will struggle early in his NBA career because he's still pretty raw. He just has the combination of size and athletic ability that suggests he'll eventually be very good, don't think Lawal does.

 

[SunsTzu]

He's 6'7.5 without shoes though which is undersized for a PF that isn't particularly powerful. Millsap may be a good comparison but it remains to be seen if Lawal has anywhere near that level of game.

He'll be 6'9 when he steps on the court and I personally think reach is better indicator of effective interior height. With a reach of 8'11.5" he is only a little shorter than normal(about an inch shorter than Amare/Boozer but still bigger than guys like Lee or Blake Griffin).

Like I said Millsap would be his absolute ceiling imo, a bigger Maxiell seems more realistic but there is no guarantee he'll even be that.

 

[Irish]

It is easy to lose sight of how im;portant teammates are to inside guys. Point guards to get the ball inside and shooters to open up the paint. Both Georgia Tech and Miami are described as having very weak guards. When guys are responsible for their own offense following offensive rebounds, it can pull down shooting percentages compared to getting passes.

This is from NBAdraft.NET

NBA Comparison: Chris Wilcox

Strengths: A strong, athletic and lengthy 6'9 forward (in shoes), Lawal has been able to use his physical tools to gain the advantage over whoever guards him ... He spends the majority of his time in the post, where he is capable of making short turnaround jumpers, and finishing strong around the basket ... In regards to his post play, he has the ability to create just enough space for himself to get off a comfortable look ... his touch around the rim has seemed to improve, and he has shown signs of being able to use both hands (though limited with the left, but improved) in the paint... His activity level on the interior is very high, as his high motor and athleticism both contribute to his 8.5 rebounds per game, which is impressive considering he plays next to another big rebounder in Derrick Favors ... Scores a lot of baskets on put backs... He has a strong frame and an NBA body, and plays physical on both sides of the ball ... Does a good job at drawing contact and getting to the line, and he runs the floor well for his size, making it a habit of beating his man down the floor ... Defensively his physical play and long wingspan help him contest shots, contributing to his effectiveness defending the post ...

Weaknesses: Lawal is just a little too raw offensively, as he doesn't show you a variety of ways to score... his face up game and outside jumper will both need to improve if he wants to play real consistent minutes at the next level, as he won't be able to use his body in the pro's the same way he uses it in college... For a guy who thrives on contact and physicality in the paint, he shoots a poor 57% from the free throw line, which goes hand in hand with his non-threatening mid range or outside game... His shot selection can be questioned, as he seems to intent at time looking for his own offense down low instead of passing out of the post... Defensively he doesn't have the highest IQ, but if you tell him to body up and bang with the big guys down low, that he understands well...

Overall: What keeps Lawal from being talked about as a legit first rounder is that he doesn't stand out in any particular area... His competitiveness, desire to want the ball and high motor are admirable, but skill wise he doesn't excel above the rest in any particular category... He does however have an NBA body, and good enough hands, athleticism and size to compete at the next level... He looks like your typical hard working, energetic forward who will do the dirty work down low, and has the potential of being a nice 7th man - assuming he continues to polish his footwork and post move in the paint, and improves that mid-range game...

This seems to fit what NBADRAFT.NET said about his summer league play:

4. Gani Lawal 5g, 15.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 49.2 fg%

One of the hardest workers all week, Lawal is a no nonsense low post stud who is not afraid to play physical. Appears to be a 2nd round steal for Phoneix and a guy that should be able to immediately contribute with Amare now out of the picture. His offensive game remains very limited but he's a guy that will do the dirty work and score garbage baskets for the team.

Lawal may have a limited upside, but after the complaints about Amare's game, I'd think Gani is going to be a pleasant surprise. How many Sun's Bigs are described as "dirt workers"?

 

[carey]

How many Sun's Bigs are described as "dirt workers"?

One, and he wasn't resigned.

 

[cly2tw]

anywhere near Milsap or Maxiell or Blair's game would make Lawal a great pick for the Suns.

 

[Irish]

anywhere near Milsap or Maxiell or Blair's game would make Lawal a great pick for the Suns.

I agree. Right now what is needed is a replacement for Amundson. Amundson was a great dirt worker whose energy really helped the second team become a defensive powerhouse (Remember how they almost pulled game 5 against the Lakers out after being behind most of the game.) Amundson was a good rebounder, 29.7 rebounds per minute, but that was only 4.4 rebounds per game. In the playoffs he only grabbed 3.5 rebounds per game although his rate was still 0.288 rebounds per minute.

I'm skeptical that Lawal will be as efficient a defender as Amundson right away due to imexperience. But I think he will be relately soon.

I'm pretty sure .the add-off of Childress over Barbosa is only going to help the Second Team's defense (if nothing else, he will be a taller defender and a vastly better rebounder than Leandro). On offfense last season, Barbosa only shot 42.5% and 32.4% for three. (41.7% and 34.3% for three in the playoffs). Childress had a very good shooting percenage with the Hawks (career 52.2%) for 11.1 ppg. The Childree stats improved dramatically when Bibby was added to the Hawks. Josh saw his shooting percentage jump to 57.1%.

I would not be surprised if the Suns Second Team returns to their status as a very good group.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

29.7 rebounds per minute, but that was only 4.4 rebounds per game.

that's some fancy math!!!


(george, i know it may seem like i'm picking on you, i'm not. just having fun)

 

[Irish]

that's some fancy math!!!


(george, i know it may seem like i'm picking on you, i'm not. just having fun)

Unlike 82, I try to use simple calculations. My feeling is that rebounds per minute is a very good measure. It's not ideal, but when you compare 0.29 to 0.21; it works out as a big difference. At 30 minutes, 0.21 is 6.3 rebounds while 0.29 is 8.7 rebounds.

Warrick has a career rebounding rate of 0.22. Stoudemire has a career 0.89 (but 9.8 in the last few months of the regular season but just 0.183 in the playffs). That is not exactly what you'd expect from a guy getting $100 million.

 

[Errntknght]

Warrick's career rebounding rate per minute for regular season games is .199, and Amare's is .260, .258 last year. You must not read over what you type... 0.89, 9.8 and .183 all representing what should be roughly similar numbers in the same sentence??? With 29.7 rpm, it wasn't to hard to figure out what you meant... but this mishmash?

 

[Irish]

Warrick's career rebounding rate per minute for regular season games is .199, and Amare's is .260, .258 last year. You must not read over what you type... 0.89, 9.8 and .183 all representing what should be roughly similar numbers in the same sentence??? With 29.7 rpm, it wasn't to hard to figure out what you meant... but this mishmash?

I did get my new glasses, so hopefully I won't make as many obvious goofs.

Late in the regular season, Amare did a credible job on the boards but not in the playoffs.

 

[Errntknght]

Lawal wasn't the only late round 2 that showed up well in the SL. Caracter, 284 lb PF drafted by the Lakers, and Harangody 250 lb 3 pt gunning PF drafted by the Celtics, were both taken after Gani and both drew more raves in SL. I'd rather have Caracter for his sheer size which, I might add, he uses effectively to rebound.

 

[Yuma]

Because he is not that good..

All jokes aside, he really is better than a second round pick, just based on his summer league play.

 

[Irish]

Lawal wasn't the only late round 2 that showed up well in the SL. Caracter, 284 lb PF drafted by the Lakers, and Harangody 250 lb 3 pt gunning PF drafted by the Celtics, were both taken after Gani and both drew more raves in SL. I'd rather have Caracter for his sheer size which, I might add, he uses effectively to rebound.

I don't know much about Caracter. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Derrick-Caracter-233/. At over 280 pounds, I guess the Suns saw an Oliver Miller look alike. I don't know how many insiders are a carryover from that peirod, but I can see why they may have figured he would not do well at the Suns pace.

Harangody is 6'6" without shoes and a standing reach of 8'10" and only a 28.6" vertical. They tried to move him outside his last year at Notre Dame, but injuries slowed him down. He's reasonably strong, but it will be an uphill battle for him. Unlike Caracter, I saw Harangody play a few times. I realize he wasn't healthy, but he seemed heavy. I'm Irish so I root for ND guys, but I didn't think he was a good fit for us.