How Do You Measure Risk

[Harry]

Scouts to whom I have talked for the most part believe Rosen can be a successful NFL QB. They are more intrigued by Murray but less certain his success is guaranteed. It certainly appears Murray is an excellent fit for KK’s offense, likely better than Rosen’s fit. However, traditional role requirements of the QB job would seem to lean more towards Rosen. He reads defenses better, is more of a pocket passer (read less likely to be seriously injured) and handles play action more smoothly. He’s simply a more tradionsl QB. That’s important because most observers believe KK is no lock to succeed. So if he fails, are the Cards better off to start again with Rosen? That would seem a more flexible option than Murray.

Then consider it makes little sense to have 2 QBs so a Murray pick would lead to a Rosen trade. Most feel he’d fetch a second round pick or maybe a late first, a couple mentioned NE as a trading partner. Of course the Cards would also take a cap hit.

So the Cards are left with an option that will test they’re willingness to gamble. Do they go all in on the KK offense or do they take the safer, more flexible route? Keim has always struck me as conservative. MB also seems to follow that pattern. I expect the Cards to stick with Rosen and we should know in just a few days whether there’s likely to be s major demand for the top pick. Once that is establish the Cards’ strategy should be more predictable.

 

[Shane]

Good post Harry

 

[Dr. Jones]

Do you believe that if KK fails Steve Keim will still keep his job? I do not.

With that in mind, Keim must swing for the fence he has the best chances of keeping his job, while also being bold enough to forge a new path forward for the team with the worst record in the league.

No small task.

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[Shane]

Do you believe that if KK fails Steve Keim will still keep his job? I do not.

With that in mind, Keim must swing for the fence he has the best chances of keeping his job, while also being bold enough to forge a new path forward for the team with the worst record in the league.

No small task.

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One could say signing and hiring Kk is a swing for the fences. Now already having A QB on the roster most experts feel will be a good NFL QB is a good quality start to turning this around. Shore up your other areas of need and this could be turned around pretty quickly. You act as though this team is completely devoid of talent. It isn’t.

 

[BW52]

IMHO opinion the smarter safer play is draft Bosa then use the rest of the draft picks for BPA and strengthening the roster.Taking a longshot chance on a short QB when the list of successful NFL short QBs is limited just doesn`t seem like a Cardinals type risky move.Better to have solid foundations on DLINE and OLINE than to risk everything on a short QB.You already have a round 1 QB with a year of experience under the worst conditions around and he survived and flashed talent.Build up the supporting cast on both sides of the ball and give Rosen a real chance to improve and keep developing.

 

[az jam]

Good stuff Harry. It's fun having the number one pick and Murray being" hyped" at the Combine. KK was brought in the develop Rosen and I don't think that will change. IMO they will draft Bosa unless an unbelievable package is made for the # 1 pick which won't hurt.

 

[bojack]

I can't see a scenario where you see the Cardinals look like a full blown TT / B12 offense regardless of who is the coach so the idea that KM fits best into KK offense is non starter to me. If it's a good offense and unless it is predicated on designed QB runs (doubtful) then your best QB for your system is the best, most effective passer.

Any time people are focusing on the QBs athleticism as their big selling point they have lost. Athleticism with a QB is used to make up for deficits in the player, team or scheme. There is a reason the best QB of all time is a slow 6'4" guy with laughable athletics compared to most of the players sharing the field and running nor scrambling is not even associated with his game.

I don't expect Rosen to be great. He very well could be a worse QB than Murray. But I don't expect Murray to be great so I'm not taking him in the first round when we already have a QB that has similar potential.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Do you believe that if KK fails Steve Keim will still keep his job? I do not.

With that in mind, Keim must swing for the fence he has the best chances of keeping his job, while also being bold enough to forge a new path forward for the team with the worst record in the league.

No small task.

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Agreed Keim would be gone, and what would be even worse, a good chunk of the fans with him. No because of Keim, but because if Murray fails that more than likely means Kingsbury fails.

You gut the offense to construct a new offensive scheme that you hope works in the NFL. If it fails, then you have no QBOF, no offensive line, and a bunch of fans tired of seasons with 5 wins or less.

You are not turninng around a team, even in the NFL, very quickly in that case. See the Browns of the years. Add in that the CBA negotiations are going to be the worse anyone has seen, with one side wanting guaranteed money, and the other complaining about the lack of quality football because of drastically reduced practice schedules, it has all the making to have this organization scraping up for scrapes for a decade and HOPING other teams' fans show up to watch.

It is a huge, huge risk all the way around, IMHO.

But, hey, it could work too <-- I say that with all sincerity.

 

[Southpaw]

Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray...................... Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray

 

[Solar7]

Do you believe that if KK fails Steve Keim will still keep his job? I do not.

With that in mind, Keim must swing for the fence he has the best chances of keeping his job, while also being bold enough to forge a new path forward for the team with the worst record in the league.

No small task.

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Keim, who signed a contract extension last season, has a much better chance of keeping his job if the team shows marginal success over last year, rather than saying he ****'d up another 1st round draft pick and throwing up the world's biggest hail mary that would have to immediately succeed or be considered a huge steamy pile of failure.

...All while letting Bosa land in the laps of our division rival, where he'll be able to terrorize tiny Kyler for the rest of their careers.

 

[Ohcrap75]

Build the rest of the team around the QB position. Give Rosen a fair chance this season. If he fails, then we will probably be drafting in the top 5 to draft a QB that is as good or better than Murray next year. If Murray was an elite QB prospect, I wouldn't be against trading Rosen, but he has way too many question marks to go this route.

 

[BigRedRage]

Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray...................... Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray

Kyler Kyler murray Murray? Kyler, Murray Murray Kyler. Kyler! Murray Kyler Murray Murray. Murray.

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[HeHasRosen]

Keim, who signed a contract extension last season, has a much better chance of keeping his job if the team shows marginal success over last year, rather than saying he ****'d up another 1st round draft pick and throwing up the world's biggest hail mary that would have to immediately succeed or be considered a huge steamy pile of failure.

...All while letting Bosa land in the laps of our division rival, where he'll be able to terrorize tiny Kyler for the rest of their careers.

Good point. If we take Murray we are gift wrapping Bosa to the 9ers. Did anyone watch the Orange Bowl? Murray struggled in that game and thats as close to an NFL defense that he saw. Murray was nearly killed by Q Williams on one play. He stayed down for a while. Imagine if Bosa gets his hands on him. I just dont see Murray holding up with his style of play. Regardless of measurables and what not.

Imagine the irony of Bosa knocking Murray out of the game if that situation did play out.

 

[GatorAZ]

It’s pretty simple. You let Kliff choose his guy and roll with it.

 

[Cheesebeef]

It’s pretty simple. You let Kliff choose his guy and roll with it.

this is where I'm at. we've already taken a home-run swing with KK. If that's what he wants, I'm fine with them giving him everything he thinks he needs. That way, there's no excuses for him or Keim.

 

[football karma]

early in the process, I thought the idea of drafting Murray and trading Rosen was utterly ridiculous

now, I think Keim is crazy enough just to do it.

 

[DRM08]

early in the process, I thought the idea of drafting Murray and trading Rosen was utterly ridiculous

now, I think Keim is crazy enough just to do it.

It would be pretty wild if this entire thing was already arranged before they hired Kliff. Some interesting things happened along the way...

1. Kliff gets hired.
2. Next day, Kyler comes out and says he is going NFL.
3. Shortly after this, Kliff's agent goes on a podcast and guarantees Kyler will be a Top 10 pick.
4. Bit later, Kyler hires the same agent as Kliff.

Kliff's agent is a Tech grad who was in school with Kliff. They are supposedly best friends, so it's not a normal client/agent relationship. Knowing the history with Kliff and Kyler in the recruiting process, it will be pretty funny if all the stuff I listed above is not just pure coincidence.

I just have a hard time believing the Cardinals ownership will give up on Rosen this early. I also have a hard time believing they will give Kliff that kind of authority/input. Would be pretty surprising if it goes that way.

 

[Solar7]

For the record, if Kliff really wants Murray, do it. Let's shoot for the moon.

But also for the record, I don't think KK came here planning to draft Murray, and that he really wants to develop Rosen, who is the best choice for the team.

 

[slanidrac16]

Not saying what we should do but look at the facts. KK is hired with one huge selling point of convincing Bidwill and Kiem that he could develop JR into a good QB. We hire Tom clement to help tutor josh. We get perhaps the premier offensive line coach and the plans, schemes, player evaluations and everything else is set into motion . The biggest thing to remember is this is not a one year plan. There are too many holes to fill on this team to become a bonifide super bowl contender. We want to see massive improvement and 8-8 would be just that. We need to rebuild the foundation of this team. We have free agency ( this year and next)with a ton of cap space and we have two drafts. I would like to think after that we will contend for a playoff spot. I just don’t see us scrapping the whole plan when the plane is just getting off the ground.

 

[JeffGollin]

It’s pretty simple. You let Kliff choose his guy and roll with it.

One of the TV or radio pundits made the case for any newbe HC wanting to sink or swim with his own guy and not a QB some other guy drafted. This would support a move by KK to draft Murray.

 

[slanidrac16]

One of the TV or radio pundits made the case for any newbe HC wanting to sink or swim with his own guy and not a QB some other guy drafted. This would support a move by KK to draft Murray.

Maybe in some cases. But KK came claiming he could make Rosen his guy.

 

[az jam]

Not saying what we should do but look at the facts. KK is hired with one huge selling point of convincing Bidwill and Kiem that he could develop JR into a good QB. We hire Tom clement to help tutor josh. We get perhaps the premier offensive line coach and the plans, schemes, player evaluations and everything else is set into motion . The biggest thing to remember is this is not a one year plan. There are too many holes to fill on this team to become a bonifide super bowl contender. We want to see massive improvement and 8-8 would be just that. We need to rebuild the foundation of this team. We have free agency ( this year and next)with a ton of cap space and we have two drafts. I would like to think after that we will contend for a playoff spot. I just don’t see us scrapping the whole plan when the plane is just getting off the ground.

These are very solid points on gong the direction established with Josh Rosen and KK. It does make sense. However, if the Cards feel that Kyler Murray is a once in a generation franchise qb, that does change everything. There are already major arguments on this board on both side of this. IMO we won't know until the Cards are on the clock on draft day. Enjoy it, it's fun and keep the debate going!!

 

[NeverSayDieFan]

Fitz' says Josh can play. He sees him everyday in practice. (ie; ability, work habits, leadership, etc.) If Fitz' says he can do it, then I'm inclined to believe him.


Mark in SC

 

[cardpa]

Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray...................... Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray

This reminds me of school when you had to write the same thing numerous times on the chalk board.

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[cardpa]

Not saying what we should do but look at the facts. KK is hired with one huge selling point of convincing Bidwill and Kiem that he could develop JR into a good QB. We hire Tom clement to help tutor josh. We get perhaps the premier offensive line coach and the plans, schemes, player evaluations and everything else is set into motion . The biggest thing to remember is this is not a one year plan. There are too many holes to fill on this team to become a bonifide super bowl contender. We want to see massive improvement and 8-8 would be just that. We need to rebuild the foundation of this team. We have free agency ( this year and next)with a ton of cap space and we have two drafts. I would like to think after that we will contend for a playoff spot. I just don’t see us scrapping the whole plan when the plane is just getting off the ground.

These two sentences alone should squash any idea of drafting Murray.