How to Consider Combine Results

Harry

ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
Supporting Member
Joined
Jan 7, 2003
Posts
12,794
Reaction score
28,157
Location
Orlando, FL
With the Combine fast approaching I’m being asked about the value of various combine tests and their impact on the draft. Some are obvious. Overall the number one factor in drafting is age with younger players consistently being drafted earlier when Combine results & college performance are similar. Pure speed and the standing vertical jump are critical for receivers, including TEs when they are targeted to be primarily pass catchers. There’s same is true of CBs. Blocking TEs need good lifting numbers.

Evaluating offensive linemen begins with measurements. Wingspan & weight are viewed as critical by many scouts. Getting a set of strong hands inside on a charging pass rusher is still considered the best way to slow them. An inch of arms length isn’t too critical, but 3 inches is significant. Heavier, in general, was better than lighter. Even with today’s era of more mobile QBs many evaluators still like the 10 yd time more than the 40. Weightlifting is very important for IOL candidates (over 20 reps is acceptable even though the top guys can do 40+). The consensus is that potential drive blocking strength is essential, especially in short yardage situations. The Shuttle Run is a favorite of some scouts who apply it to linemen on both sides of the ball.

On the defensive side look for Edges who time under 7.00 on the 3 Cone Drill. Interestingly WRs & CBs typically score best on each of the previous 2 tests. Do keep in mind that many of the best numbers posted don’t lead to NFL prominence. Good is critical, great is interesting. There are some decent quality studies saying collegiate performance is a better predictor of NFL success than Combine results.

There is a wide range of studies on this subject. One theme that often appears valid is a good combine performance raises draft status, but is not a guarantee of top NFL performance. So watch out for Combine generated risers. However, it’s important to note there are so many variables involved that it’s not surprising study results vary greatly. I’ve tried to consider studies but also focus heavily on what actual scouts tell me they are using to differentiate.

For the sake of brevity I’ve principally dealt with results that are chiefly about positions the Cards are likely to target.
 

oaken1

Stone Cold
Supporting Member
Banned from P+R
Joined
Mar 13, 2004
Posts
18,908
Reaction score
17,455
Location
Modesto, California
With the Combine fast approaching I’m being asked about the value of various combine tests and their impact on the draft. Some are obvious. Overall the number one factor in drafting is age with younger players consistently being drafted earlier when Combine results & college performance are similar. Pure speed and the standing vertical jump are critical for receivers, including TEs when they are targeted to be primarily pass catchers. There’s same is true of CBs. Blocking TEs need good lifting numbers.

Evaluating offensive linemen begins with measurements. Wingspan & weight are viewed as critical by many scouts. Getting a set of strong hands inside on a charging pass rusher is still considered the best way to slow them. An inch of arms length isn’t too critical, but 3 inches is significant. Heavier, in general, was better than lighter. Even with today’s era of more mobile QBs many evaluators still like the 10 yd time more than the 40. Weightlifting is very important for IOL candidates (over 20 reps is acceptable even though the top guys can do 40+). The consensus is that potential drive blocking strength is essential, especially in short yardage situations. The Shuttle Run is a favorite of some scouts who apply it to linemen on both sides of the ball.

On the defensive side look for Edges who time under 7.00 on the 3 Cone Drill. Interestingly WRs & CBs typically score best on each of the previous 2 tests. Do keep in mind that many of the best numbers posted don’t lead to NFL prominence. Good is critical, great is interesting. There are some decent quality studies saying collegiate performance is a better predictor of NFL success than Combine results.

There is a wide range of studies on this subject. One theme that often appears valid is a good combine performance raises draft status, but is not a guarantee of top NFL performance. So watch out for Combine generated risers. However, it’s important to note there are so many variables involved that it’s not surprising study results vary greatly. I’ve tried to consider studies but also focus heavily on what actual scouts tell me they are using to differentiate.

For the sake of brevity I’ve principally dealt with results that are chiefly about positions the Cards are likely to target.
Agree, underclassmen who show similar results to seniors usually have a much higher ceiling... paying attention to the tape is big but it is hard to evaluate guys who consistently faced weaker competition week in and week out...but a strong combine performance proving traits makes it easier to project a guy where his tape indicates
 
Top