I watched the tape again (carefully) and...

[Crimson Warrior]

I wanted to throw a few things out there, sorry if its too long:

The passing game:

Accuracy: Those who say McCown is "inaccurate" are themselves inaccurate. He was 26 for 44. Thats 59% and includes ABOUT A DOZEN deep (20+) tries. Did receivers have to jump several times to catch passes? Yes. But, did McCown deliever many right in the bread basket? Yes, especially in the last 20 min of the game. Overall, McCown is not "uncannily accurate" He does miss badly once in a while. But, at the end of the day, he is accurate enough.

Pass Protection: Was excellent, bordering on outstanding. McCown had plenty of time to get it done. DAVIS is pass blocking like the 2nd overall pick in the draft (I'm not kidding). He's a wall that DEs don't even THINK about getting by. Linebackers look like toy soldiers next to Big. Shelton is getting it done, almost as good as Davis. Our tackles might be the best pass blocking tandem in the NFL. Wells is very good. Step is solid. Spikes is the weakest link. We seriously need to address RG in the draft or FA for 05' RB blitz pick is very good/great.

Run blocking: decent at times but not consistent. I'd like to see a young, quality RB get some carries for us before I start condemning particular players for their run blocking.

Bottom line on McCown: Its tough. His best play: 3rd and 13 from the niner 30 with 4 min, he gets pressured out of the pocket, rolls right, and throws, with pinpoint accuracy, to fitz on the sideline for a first down. Great, great play. However, his passer rating for the game, 70.9, says a lot. 70.9 is not going to win playoff games. Josh had a chance to win the game on that endzone throw to freddie. If he makes that play, its a whole new discussion.

But he didn't. So now we're left to decide if he did enough to earn another start. Has he done enough for the organization to invest one more year in him? It's close. Me? He's my starter next week. Next year? I'm reserving judgment. If his rating stays above 72, then I give him one more year. He's done well enough so far in his first year of starting to deserve a chance to play with an improved running game in 05'.

Running game: On one hand, we had three rushing touchdowns (which is great). On the other, we averaged 3 yards per carry. Thats woeful. We need a big-time running back. I don't give emmitt another year (sorry emmitt!). We need to go in another direction, and its got to be a top priority in 05'. I do think Ayanbadejo starts next year.

Receivers: Boldin looked better yesterday. A little more explosive. His best game of the season. Johnson still looks pretty solid. Fitz is good, but the third overall pick? He hasn't lived up to that yet. Bottom line is that Fitz and Boldin had PLENTY of chances to "go up and get it" Sunday, but, they really didn't get it done. Maybe the passes weren't perfect, but they had their chances. If the SF defense was so bad, how come everytime we tried to throw deep to these guys in single coverage, the SF defenders were like blankets on them? Let this game put to rest the myth that our receivers are running freely in opponents' secondaries, with nary a look from the QB.

Run Defense: we gave up 161 yards on 41 attempts. 4.1 yards a pop. Not bad, but I don't think that tells the whole story. Everybody in the stadium knew that, late in the game, SF was going to run the ball. Our run D is not atrocious, but its not good.

Why? Zero tackles for Zellner and Pace is one reason. The blame rests in our front seven. It could even be our scheme. Its hard to point at Ronnie Mac when he led the team with nine tackles. All that is certain, is, we need to improve in this area. Most of the 49ers running plays were between the tackles and I didn't see Davis (4 tackles, not bad), Dockett (3 tackles, need more) or Berry (2 tackles?) doing much to stop the run.

Wilson came on strong at the end of the game, but he was AWOL in the first 3 quarters. Seriously, it looked like we were playing 10 on 11 the first half, and I was wondering where in the heck AW was at. He's obviously most effective when he's around the line of scrimmage. Zero plays made by AW in pass defense.

Ohalete had eight tackles, but zero big plays in pass defense. Thats not good enough for a FS.

Starks is healthy enough to return punts but not healthly enough to start at CB? That is, perhaps, the most confusing move of all by the coaching staff. I like hill and all, but starks is a game changer. He got beat a couple of times sunday, but game in and game out, he makes the secondary a million times better.

Starks is also light years ahead of Williams as a PR. Should have made that move a long time ago. Williams is not good as a PR (sorry Karl!). Three words to improve the cards special teams: Draft Antonio Perkins (NCAA record holder for single season punt returns for touchdowns)!

Thats it. Please share your thoughts if you care to.

 

[Jetstream Green]

You know

I think OU is going to beat the crap out of USC.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Big 12 people are nuts.

OU doesn't even belong in the Title Game - just like last year. They beat Texas and two other teams with FOUR losses - ooohhhhhh!!!!!

They will get exposed just as they did last year, but this year it ain't even gonna be pretty. LSU was pretty weak - USC is gonna roll their asses back to Pre-Stoops days.

 

[Jetstream Green]

hmmm.

Adrian Peterson. Thats all I will say.

 

[red desert]

My money's on SC.

 

[conraddobler]

The Big twelve is in shambles but OU is better than you think they just have no way of proving it because all the perenial powers like KState and Nebraska just blow.

 

[Assface]

The Big twelve is in shambles but OU is better than you think they just have no way of proving it because all the perenial powers like KState and Nebraska just blow.

Nebraska just hasn't been the same since losing Kobongo. (That's for Section 11)

 

[bratwurst]

Crimson - thanks for the breakdown on the CARDS game.

I hope you are right about the pass blocking, it might have been good this game but there have been some serious breakdowns in the past games. I am not sold on Davis as our left tackle yet, I would have liked to keep him at guard but I don't know if his feet are quick enough to pull on run plays and I was worried his feet would not have been quick enough to handle speed rushers on the outside at left tackle.

Emmitt really showed his heart and desire on some of those late huge runs he had, but I agree that if we had a quicker back with some breakaway speed we would have a huge difference on our offensive attack. Emmitt brings a LOT to this team but a home run threat is desperately needed to take some pressure off our QB and WRs.

The thing that bothered me about the long tosses by McCown is that they would just loft the ball up with the single coverage. I want to see one of these guys either just run a fly pattern and get behind the DBs without the ball being thrown up for grabs. Or a double move or something. The other thing is that earlier in the year it seemed that fitz was much more explosive when going up to get the balls. He just seemed flatter to me yesterday, like he just couldn't get the height like he used to earlier in the year. Remember that leaping catch in the first San Fran game? I didn't see that Fitz on Sunday.

Ohalete - I said something during the game about this. He overpursues and than has to reach back to tackle with his arms. He needs to learn to explode into and wrap up the target. We need to upgrade this position on defense badly. Wilson was a monster when he finally got a fire going.

Starks needs to be given a chance to contribute more. The comment on being able to return punts but not start is right on target. What is that all about? This guy can't be paid like he is and only be our nickle back next year.

 

[Assface]

Ohalete - I said something during the game about this. He overpursues and than has to reach back to tackle with his arms. He needs to learn to explode into and wrap up the target. We need to upgrade this position on defense badly. Wilson was a monster when he finally got a fire going.

I'd like to see Renaldo Hill converted to FS. He has good cover skills and instincts but doesn't have the speed to be a good CB.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

Ohalete had eight tackles, but zero big plays in pass defense. Thats not good enough for a FS.

Starks is healthy enough to return punts but not healthly enough to start at CB? That is, perhaps, the most confusing move of all by the coaching staff. I like hill and all, but starks is a game changer. He got beat a couple of times sunday, but game in and game out, he makes the secondary a million times better.

Starks is also light years ahead of Williams as a PR. Should have made that move a long time ago. Williams is not good as a PR (sorry Karl!). Three words to improve the cards special teams: Draft Antonio Perkins (NCAA record holder for single season punt returns for touchdowns)!

I'll steer this in a non-Josh direction for the sake of everyone's sanity. Ohalete sucks ass and he has mostly gotten a free pass mostly due to the focus being elsewhere this season. Missed tackles and bad coverage are two of the most noticeable things, but if we're going to play Adrian close to the LOS we're going to need someone back there who can make up a lot of space in coverage and as the last resort. Of course, since it's still up in the air whether Adrian is even playing here next season so we may need two safeties. Good work, Rod.

Williams also leaves a lot to be desired. Our return game has been crap for awhile now (Arnold Jackson? Mac Cody?) and I see nobody that's stepping up. BJ is slow. I remember that one play on Sunday when 90% of the kick returners in the NFL would have gotten to the corner but BJ got ran down by a special teams player. Williams has been awful as well. Before Sunday he always caught the ball but very rarely did anything with it. He couldn't even catch it on Sunday.

I'd be on board with the Antonio Perkins draft selection. I have no clue where he's projected to go, but he has tremendous upside as a CB to go along with his already developed returning abilities.

 

[D-Dogg]

Who's Josh McCown?

 

[Cheesebeef]

BJ is slow. I remember that one play on Sunday when 90% of the kick returners in the NFL would have gotten to the corner but BJ got ran down by a special teams player.

I remember turning to my other brother and asking: why doe sit look like he's running in mud?

BJ as our "deep threat" is a total joke - the guy has ZERO speed out there.

As far as why did they put Starks in there, but not in pass coverage - I think it was a move out of desperation and frustration with Karl Williams more than anything else.

I look at this year versus last year like so: Last year on offense we had one WR, no QB, a mediocre running game, a bad O-line and on D - no rushing D, no pressure on the QB, Two Bad corners and one Good Safety and one avergae safety.

This year we have Two WRs, no QB, a mediocre-poor running game, a mediocre O-line and on D - no rushing D, Pressure on the QB, One bad corner/one decent corner/one corner who just can't stay healthy enough and one Very Good Safety and one below average one.

So improvements in WRs, Pass Rushing, Coverage somewhat - but that's about it on the year. Lots of holes to fill - but enough could be filled this offseason with what's out there to at last get us in serious contention for what should be a very weak division next year.

Oh - and we need a new OC - Wood sucks ass.

 

[Shuesters2]

..... And a TE that can block and catch!

Shuesters

 

[BradMannTX]

SF only blitzed on <5% of the plays. That's why our OL looked good. That is poor coaching. Anyone who has watched tape knows they need to blitz like crazy men. We can't handle it.

Josh looked good the whole game, though. It was the first time I can remember where he didn't look like a deer in the headlights. If he keeps the poise up, he may be the next Brett Favre. My woman thinks that I should delete the last line, though.

 

[ChandlerCard]

Nice post - thanks for taking the time to do the analysis. I have to wonder whether this line can get enough push to do some decent run blocking. The interior is not very good right now, and they all still get confused by the defense. In their defense, players are being rotated (and coaches!)

I'll disagree with the comment on Fitz. He's having a decent year. He still seems bothered by a weak ankle. I wonder what his reception ratio is. He sure had a few great looking catches Sunday (as did Boldin).

Josh' longer passes still aren't always in sync, but he's improving. The offseason QB choices will not be easy, because if you take away the elite QBs in this league there are a whole lot of decent players with known flaws.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

I've said for years that we have the slowest returners in the league.Who was the guy a few years back that was our BIG back that we used in goal line situations and then was or KR?

 

[JeffGollin]

Call me grumpy but...

Although your analysis was thoughtful and detailed, you'd have to come away from it assuming that we won the game by 58 points and are well on our way to the Super Bowl. One specific that leaped (lept?) out at me:

Those who say McCown is "inaccurate" are themselves inaccurate. He was 26 for 44. Thats 59% and includes ABOUT A DOZEN deep (20+) tries...Overall, McCown is not "uncannily accurate"...But, at the end of the day, he is accurate enough.
Let's put this into some kind of context. Some QB's in west coast offenses have insane completion stats because of all the dump offs to backs and tight ends. And, besides, being accurate is more than having a gaudy completion percentage. Hitting your man in full stride so he can add YACs is important. Not throwing too high leading your man into getting cold-cocked by a safety is part of being accurate.

When successful NFL quarterbacks see a man open, they hit him 95% of the time. (Not 50%. Not 59%). Also - accuracy isn't merely a matter of putting the ball "somewhere in the general vicinity of the receiver." In too many instances, McCown was not getting the ball high enough for our guy to outjump the other guy or throwing it too close to the sideline marker for the receiver to come down with the ball. Also - the ball at the end of the game that was batted away from Freddie, though quite accurate, was thrown too softly. (Note - Getting the ball to the receiver "on time" is also part of being accurate).

I like McCown and think he has a good future. But no, I don't think he's anywhere near being "accurate enough" (at least not yet).

 

[SoonerCard]

Perkins

I agree about drafting Perkins. I think he'll go in the late 2nd. If he's there at our pick in round 3 - I say grab him. If you look at OU's pass defense this year, they really suffered (nearly got beat by OSU and A&M on the road) when Perkins was out. Now that he's back, the receivers haven't been running free in the deep middle. As far as his return skills, he knows what to do when the blockers give him a hole. He's got some speed, but I don't think he's in the class of Ted Ginn or Cadillac Williams as a pure returner. Much better than we've had though. If you snag Perkins (or another good CB) maybe moving Hill to FS might work. Definitely need an upgrade there.

 

[john h]

I wanted to throw a few things out there, sorry if its too long:

The passing game:

Accuracy: Those who say McCown is "inaccurate" are themselves inaccurate. He was 26 for 44. Thats 59% and includes ABOUT A DOZEN deep (20+) tries. Did receivers have to jump several times to catch passes? Yes. But, did McCown deliever many right in the bread basket? Yes, especially in the last 20 min of the game. Overall, McCown is not "uncannily accurate" He does miss badly once in a while. But, at the end of the day, he is accurate enough.

Pass Protection: Was excellent, bordering on outstanding. McCown had plenty of time to get it done. DAVIS is pass blocking like the 2nd overall pick in the draft (I'm not kidding). He's a wall that DEs don't even THINK about getting by. Linebackers look like toy soldiers next to Big. Shelton is getting it done, almost as good as Davis. Our tackles might be the best pass blocking tandem in the NFL. Wells is very good. Step is solid. Spikes is the weakest link. We seriously need to address RG in the draft or FA for 05' RB blitz pick is very good/great.

Run blocking: decent at times but not consistent. I'd like to see a young, quality RB get some carries for us before I start condemning particular players for their run blocking.

Bottom line on McCown: Its tough. His best play: 3rd and 13 from the niner 30 with 4 min, he gets pressured out of the pocket, rolls right, and throws, with pinpoint accuracy, to fitz on the sideline for a first down. Great, great play. However, his passer rating for the game, 70.9, says a lot. 70.9 is not going to win playoff games. Josh had a chance to win the game on that endzone throw to freddie. If he makes that play, its a whole new discussion.

But he didn't. So now we're left to decide if he did enough to earn another start. Has he done enough for the organization to invest one more year in him? It's close. Me? He's my starter next week. Next year? I'm reserving judgment. If his rating stays above 72, then I give him one more year. He's done well enough so far in his first year of starting to deserve a chance to play with an improved running game in 05'.

Running game: On one hand, we had three rushing touchdowns (which is great). On the other, we averaged 3 yards per carry. Thats woeful. We need a big-time running back. I don't give emmitt another year (sorry emmitt!). We need to go in another direction, and its got to be a top priority in 05'. I do think Ayanbadejo starts next year.

Receivers: Boldin looked better yesterday. A little more explosive. His best game of the season. Johnson still looks pretty solid. Fitz is good, but the third overall pick? He hasn't lived up to that yet. Bottom line is that Fitz and Boldin had PLENTY of chances to "go up and get it" Sunday, but, they really didn't get it done. Maybe the passes weren't perfect, but they had their chances. If the SF defense was so bad, how come everytime we tried to throw deep to these guys in single coverage, the SF defenders were like blankets on them? Let this game put to rest the myth that our receivers are running freely in opponents' secondaries, with nary a look from the QB.

Run Defense: we gave up 161 yards on 41 attempts. 4.1 yards a pop. Not bad, but I don't think that tells the whole story. Everybody in the stadium knew that, late in the game, SF was going to run the ball. Our run D is not atrocious, but its not good.

Why? Zero tackles for Zellner and Pace is one reason. The blame rests in our front seven. It could even be our scheme. Its hard to point at Ronnie Mac when he led the team with nine tackles. All that is certain, is, we need to improve in this area. Most of the 49ers running plays were between the tackles and I didn't see Davis (4 tackles, not bad), Dockett (3 tackles, need more) or Berry (2 tackles?) doing much to stop the run.

Wilson came on strong at the end of the game, but he was AWOL in the first 3 quarters. Seriously, it looked like we were playing 10 on 11 the first half, and I was wondering where in the heck AW was at. He's obviously most effective when he's around the line of scrimmage. Zero plays made by AW in pass defense.

Ohalete had eight tackles, but zero big plays in pass defense. Thats not good enough for a FS.

Starks is healthy enough to return punts but not healthly enough to start at CB? That is, perhaps, the most confusing move of all by the coaching staff. I like hill and all, but starks is a game changer. He got beat a couple of times sunday, but game in and game out, he makes the secondary a million times better.

Starks is also light years ahead of Williams as a PR. Should have made that move a long time ago. Williams is not good as a PR (sorry Karl!). Three words to improve the cards special teams: Draft Antonio Perkins (NCAA record holder for single season punt returns for touchdowns)!

Thats it. Please share your thoughts if you care to.

Well done Crimson Warrior. Thanks for taking the time to look at this game carefully. Most of us do not and probably do not have as good a take on the game. You did not cover the coaching or just what the players experessions looked like on the side lines. What are your thoughts there? I think the next few games are critical for McCown and his future. Yes Smith should be gone next year. I do not see anyone on the team as the starting RB next year. I see a high draft pick or perhaps some FA as the featured RB. I still think Navarre has a lot of upside but have nothing to back that up as he played one game with over a half with a real bad hand. Good analysis.

 

[imaCafan]

How about a trade with KC for Larry Johnson......

 

[john h]

SF only blitzed on <5% of the plays. That's why our OL looked good. That is poor coaching. Anyone who has watched tape knows they need to blitz like crazy men. We can't handle it.

Josh looked good the whole game, though. It was the first time I can remember where he didn't look like a deer in the headlights. If he keeps the poise up, he may be the next Brett Favre. My woman thinks that I should delete the last line, though.

You stop the blitz with smart receivers and a smart QB who can recognize the blitz and throw to the hot receiver who cut off their routes early. People like Manning eat blitzes like choclate cake. If teams blitz more people than you have blockers a smart QB and receivers is a must. If they suspect your QB and receivers are not experienced enough or smart enough to recognize the blitz you will be eaten alive. It appeared to me the San Francisco team changed there defense every time Josh changed his call at the line which created some confusion for him. This can be overcome by experience if he is smart enough. That question is still open.

 

[john h]

Nice post - thanks for taking the time to do the analysis. I have to wonder whether this line can get enough push to do some decent run blocking. The interior is not very good right now, and they all still get confused by the defense. In their defense, players are being rotated (and coaches!)

I'll disagree with the comment on Fitz. He's having a decent year. He still seems bothered by a weak ankle. I wonder what his reception ratio is. He sure had a few great looking catches Sunday (as did Boldin).

Josh' longer passes still aren't always in sync, but he's improving. The offseason QB choices will not be easy, because if you take away the elite QBs in this league there are a whole lot of decent players with known flaws.

Fitz is having a good year or better than average for a receiver. He has not shown that is is a top 3 pick by any means. This may be mostly the result of the QB but he has dropped more passes than I would have expected. He has shown no ability to get behind the defenders but hopefully with the right QB who can get the ball near him he can overwhelm most defenders with his size and hands.

 

[pete]

Also - the ball at the end of the game that was batted away from Freddie, though quite accurate, was thrown too softly. (Note - Getting the ball to the receiver "on time" is also part of being accurate).

I like McCown and think he has a good future. But no, I don't think he's anywhere near being "accurate enough" (at least not yet).

That ball to Jones looked to have enough mustard on it but he needed to lead him about a half foot more instead of hitting him on the numbers. I think McCown is getting closer to being a good QB. At least he is taking more chances now.

 

[john h]

Although your analysis was thoughtful and detailed, you'd have to come away from it assuming that we won the game by 58 points and are well on our way to the Super Bowl. One specific that leaped (lept?) out at me:

Those who say McCown is "inaccurate" are themselves inaccurate. He was 26 for 44. Thats 59% and includes ABOUT A DOZEN deep (20+) tries...Overall, McCown is not "uncannily accurate"...But, at the end of the day, he is accurate enough.
Let's put this into some kind of context. Some QB's in west coast offenses have insane completion stats because of all the dump offs to backs and tight ends. And, besides, being accurate is more than having a gaudy completion percentage. Hitting your man in full stride so he can add YACs is important. Not throwing too high leading your man into getting cold-cocked by a safety is part of being accurate.

When successful NFL quarterbacks see a man open, they hit him 95% of the time. (Not 50%. Not 59%). Also - accuracy isn't merely a matter of putting the ball "somewhere in the general vicinity of the receiver." In too many instances, McCown was not getting the ball high enough for our guy to outjump the other guy or throwing it too close to the sideline marker for the receiver to come down with the ball. Also - the ball at the end of the game that was batted away from Freddie, though quite accurate, was thrown too softly. (Note - Getting the ball to the receiver "on time" is also part of being accurate).

I like McCown and think he has a good future. But no, I don't think he's anywhere near being "accurate enough" (at least not yet).

Well put Jeff. QB numbers can really get schewed when a team is behind and throwing on every down with most of the short passes that go uncontested. You can easily pass for 300 yds and lose. St Louis lived on those short passes to a championship along with Marshall Faulk. I do not know that any QB in college would not have great numbers under Steve Spurrier as he put his QB in the gun on every play and I guess half their plays were passing plays. If he is still here McCown is going to have to get "comfortable" in the gun. By telling the coach he is uncomfortable we take a lot of plays off the table and allow the defense to more easily defend us. If he cannot get comfortable by next year then he should not be in the NFL. That is like being a pilot and not being comfortable making landings. From what I have seen McCown appears to not be very good (accurate) on his long passes and as has been pointed out just throws high arching passes that the defender has as good a chance catching as the receiver. He is sort of putting it all on the receiver.

 

[DieHardFromMO]

I've said for years that we have the slowest returners in the league.Who was the guy a few years back that was our BIG back that we used in goal line situations and then was or KR?

You referring to Mario Bates? Didn't he get arrested a couple years ago?