If you think we should move on from Kyler then answer this...

[BritCard]

Disagree. Some of it is about who is around you but it is likely that Stroud find a "Tank Dell" on whatever team he is on. Quality QBs consistently make their OCs and coaches look good. I am sure it helps, but I don't believe the QB coaching is the issue in Carolina. Drafting players like few special traits is a great way to limit your ability to get special outcomes. Young is small. Young is not overly athletic or dynamic. He is a guy who is going to need a lot of help to be successful.

It's all of the above. My point was not that Stroud would be bad with the Panthers, but he would be worse than this Stroud.

And Young would not be great with anyone, but would be better in say, San Fran, or even Green Bay.

I wouldn't start crowning Stroud yet either. Mac Jones as a rookie took the Pats to the Playoffs, was 2nd to Ja'Marr Chase as OROTY. Made the PWFA All Rookie team and went to the Pro Bowl.

Which lends itself to DVontels point. Drafting a QB is as much luck as judgement.

(Which brings up a thought. Mac Jones is likely gone this year and if I'm a GM I'd rather risk trying to fix Mac Jones than Kyler and one comes without a nuts contract)

 

[slanidrac16]

To do what? Make the playoffs?

To win games. To what degree, IDK. There seems to be 3 points of view of this fan base.
1. Kyler is very good and needs a supporting cast.
2. Kyler sucks and he’ll never be any better than what we are seeing.
3. Somewhere in the middle.

Unfortunately, which one is correct? It would be hard for any QB to have success with the personnel on this offense. However, the thing that bothers me is the shortcomings Kyler has been showing in the recent past still seem to be shortcomings today.

Can he be Kyler of early 2022? If yes, then we can win with him. Correct? So its build the roster, which we need to do anyway, and let’s see. Or, it’s toss him aside and pray we chose the right rookie Qb and not Fields, Darnold, Wilson, Young and others.

 

[slanidrac16]

It's all of the above. My point was not that Stroud would be bad with the Panthers, but he would be worse than this Stroud.

And Young would not be great with anyone, but would be better in say, San Fran, or even Green Bay.

I wouldn't start crowning Stroud yet either. Mac Jones as a rookie took the Pats to the Playoffs, was 2nd to Ja'Marr Chase as OROTY. Made the PWFA All Rookie team and went to the Pro Bowl.

Which lends itself to DVontels point. Drafting a QB is as much look as judgement.

(Which brings up a thought. Mac Jones is likely gone this year and if I'm a GM I'd rather risk trying to fix Mac Jones than Kyler and one comes without a nuts contract)

Get ready to duck based on your last two sentences! Lol!

 

[ASUCHRIS]

I said Penix cause saying Daniels would have set a wildfire. So I chose the lesser of two evils.

I can say with confidence that Penix and Daniels are certainly not the answer anytime soon to replace Murray.

 

[BirdGangThing]

It's all of the above. My point was not that Stroud would be bad with the Panthers, but he would be worse than this Stroud.

And Young would not be great with anyone, but would be better in say, San Fran, or even Green Bay.

I wouldn't start crowning Stroud yet either. Mac Jones as a rookie took the Pats to the Playoffs, was 2nd to Ja'Marr Chase as OROTY. Made the PWFA All Rookie team and went to the Pro Bowl.

Which lends itself to DVontels point. Drafting a QB is as much look as judgement.

(Which brings up a thought. Mac Jones is likely gone this year and if I'm a GM I'd rather risk trying to fix Mac Jones than Kyler and one comes without a nuts contract)

Mac Jones now?

 

[kerouac9]

To win games. To what degree, IDK. There seems to be 3 points of view of this fan base.
1. Kyler is very good and needs a supporting cast.
2. Kyler sucks and he’ll never be any better than what we are seeing.
3. Somewhere in the middle.

Unfortunately, which one is correct? It would be hard for any QB to have success with the personnel on this offense. However, the thing that bothers me is the shortcomings Kyler has been showing in the recent past still seem to be shortcomings today.

Can he be Kyler of early 2022? If yes, then we can win with him. Correct? So its build the roster, which we need to do anyway, and let’s see. Or, it’s toss him aside and pray we chose the right rookie Qb and not Fields, Darnold, Wilson, Young and others.

Early 2022? That team never got above .500. They were 4-8 at the bye.

I don't think Kyler Murray can be Derek Carr or Dak Prescott. I think his game depends on kind of a high-variance approach with extremely high ceiling but the floor is basically a bottomless pit. I can live with that variance when the highs are there. They just don't come around as often anymore.

 

[BritCard]

Can he be Kyler of early 2022?

2021. That Kyler is already 2 and a half years ago.

 

[BirdGangThing]

It's all of the above. My point was not that Stroud would be bad with the Panthers, but he would be worse than this Stroud.

And Young would not be great with anyone, but would be better in say, San Fran, or even Green Bay.

I wouldn't start crowning Stroud yet either. Mac Jones as a rookie took the Pats to the Playoffs, was 2nd to Ja'Marr Chase as OROTY. Made the PWFA All Rookie team and went to the Pro Bowl.

Which lends itself to DVontels point. Drafting a QB is as much luck as judgement.

(Which brings up a thought. Mac Jones is likely gone this year and if I'm a GM I'd rather risk trying to fix Mac Jones than Kyler and one comes without a nuts contract)

All QBs are likely to play better on better teams and crappier on crappier teams so you're not really saying a whole lot here

What is relevant tho - is how Stroud has performed on a crappy team - he's not surrounded like Purdy is - and we all watched Stroud in our game - the kid is legit no two ways about it - the Texans did their homework and are now in the position every NFL team wants to be in

And Mac Jones sucks big balls btw - idk why you'd want him anywhere near this team - especially behind our O-line - he would be Josh Dobbs level bad

 

[Crimson Warrior]

The problem is that you then set the franchise back yet another year. Cards fans are being asked to swallow a lot of bad football. Propping Kyler up for a do over year only to shrug after 2024 and say, "welp, let's start over again now" would be incredibly bad planning. He's the guy moving forward or he's not the guy. I don't want two seasons of evaluating Kyler and bad football. Maybe that isn't the outcome, but the likelihood is there, and it looks grim.

I see what you're saying, but I disagree that we would be completely starting over. I think the only position that we'd really be starting over at is QB.

If (big if) K1 doesn't get it done in 2024, then in 2025 you bring in another QB with a rebuilt oline and WR room, plus a defense that can hold up their end of the bargain.

MO would essentially have two offseasons to prep the roster to allow a rookie QB to be successful, and a cap-friendly rookie QB contract to work with for three years or so after that.

I'm not saying this is "great", or even "good", I'm just saying it's maybe more viable than dumping Williams or Maye into much less favorable environment for the 2024 season.

Plus I'm honestly not that enamored with Maye or Williams. If there was a Tua or a (holds his nose) Burrow getting ready to come out, I might be a little more inclined to gamble.

Keim has hamstrung the Cardinals. Let's not flail around like berserkers trying to fix his incompetence. Let's have a thoughtful plan that sets us up for success for years to come.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I see what you're saying, but I disagree that we would be completely starting over. I think the only position that we'd really be starting over at is QB.

If (big if) K1 doesn't get it done in 2024, then in 2025 you bring in another QB with a rebuilt oline and WR room, plus a defense that can hold up their end of the bargain.

MO would essentially have two offseasons to prep the roster to allow a rookie QB to be successful, and a cap-friendly rookie QB contract to work with for three years or so after that.

I'm not saying this is "great", or even "good", I'm just saying it's maybe more viable than dumping Williams or Maye into much less favorable environment for the 2024 season.

Plus I'm honestly not that enamored with Maye or Williams. If there was a Tua or a (holds his nose) Burrow getting read to come out, I might be a little more inclined to gamble.

Keim has hamstrung the Cardinals. Let's not flail around like berserkers trying to fix his incompentence. Let's have a thoughtful plan that sets us up for success for years to come.

Starting a new rookie QB is essentially starting over.

 

[Crimson Warrior]

These are mutually exclusive unless you want to wager on a QB outside the top 10. The money you spend to “build around Murray” means it’s not available to swallow his cap hit when we move him.

Indecision is the worst possible option here.

Hmmm.. The cap hit for moving on from Murray after the 2024 season would be much less than after the 2023 season, correct? You know much more about this than I, I will freely concede that.

But anyway, you're inferring that a meh Murray + a better roster following an effective 2023 offseason would translate into ARZ winning maybe seven or eight games. Correct? Hard to argue with that K9.

It sounds like your underlying premise though is that a franchise QB cannot be had if a team is picking outside of the top 10, or at least that the chance of success of doing so is much less. That I'm not so sure about.

Here are the last five NFL MVPs

• 2022: Patrick Mahomes (Quarterback - Kansas City Chiefs)
• 2021: Aaron Rodgers (Quarterback - Green Bay Packers)
• 2020: Aaron Rodgers (Quarterback - Green Bay Packers)
• 2019: Lamar Jackson (Quarterback - Baltimore Ravens)
• 2018: Patrick Mahomes (Quarterback - Kansas City Chiefs)

Mahomes was drafted at 10 of course. But Rodgers was drafted 24th, and Jackson at 32nd (!).

Even if we're drafting at 15 on for the 2025 draft, we can still get our QBOF. It's the ultimate test of a GM, but it can certainly be done.

 

[Crimson Warrior]

Starting a new rookie QB is essentially starting over.

Terrible take counselor! There are 21 other positions on a football team!

In Lamar Jackson's rookie season, the Ravens went 10-6! In Pat Mahomes Rookie year the Chiefs went 10-6 and won their division!

 

[ASUCHRIS]

In Lamar Jackson's rookie season, the Ravens went 10-6! In Pat Mahomes Rookie year the Chiefs went 10-6 and won their division!

Lol, care to compare the rosters that Lamar/Pat had with those teams?

 

[BirdGangThing]

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[Crimson Warrior]

Lol, care to compare the rosters that Lamar/Pat had with those teams?

That's exactly my point ASU.

Keep Murray for 2024 and use all of our draft and FA capital for that offseason to build positions besides QB.

If he doesn't get it done, in 2025 again use all of the FA capital on non QB positions and use 2025 draft capital as necessary to get our QBOF (with all other picks to replace this likes of Starling Thomas and Zach Pascal).

A rookie QB will have a much, much better chance of succeeding with that approach then dumping Murray after this year (which will use a bunch of cap space) and burning 2024 draft capital on a rookie QB who will join at best a partly rebuilt roster.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

That's exactly my point ASU.

Keep Murray for 2024 and use all of our draft and FA capital for that offseason to build positions besides QB.

If he doesn't get it done, in 2025 again use all of the FA capital on non QB positions and use 2025 draft capital as necessary to get our QBOF (with all other picks to replace this likes of Starling Thomas and Zach Pascal).

A rookie QB will have a much, much better chance of succeeding with that approach then dumping Murray after this year (which will use a bunch of cap space) and burning 2024 draft capital on a rookie QB who will join at best a partly rebuilt roster.

This is one way to go, if you think Kyler will ever get out of his current funk.

 

[kerouac9]

Hmmm.. The cap hit for moving on from Murray after the 2024 season would be much less than after the 2023 season, correct? You know much more about this than I, I will freely concede that.

But anyway, you're inferring that a meh Murray + a better roster following an effective 2023 offseason would translate into ARZ winning maybe seven or eight games. Correct? Hard to argue with that K9.

It sounds like your underlying premise though is that a franchise QB cannot be had if a team is picking outside of the top 10, or at least that the chance of success of doing so is much less. That I'm not so sure about.

Here are the last five NFL MVPs

• 2022: Patrick Mahomes (Quarterback - Kansas City Chiefs)
• 2021: Aaron Rodgers (Quarterback - Green Bay Packers)
• 2020: Aaron Rodgers (Quarterback - Green Bay Packers)
• 2019: Lamar Jackson (Quarterback - Baltimore Ravens)
• 2018: Patrick Mahomes (Quarterback - Kansas City Chiefs)

Mahomes was drafted at 10 of course. But Rodgers was drafted 24th, and Jackson at 32nd (!).

Even if we're drafting at 15 on for the 2025 draft, we can still get our QBOF. It's the ultimate test of a GM, but it can certainly be done.

I don't understand using MVPs as the metric here. You have a sample size of five, and three players as examples. Pretty weak source of analysis.

I've pretty consistently said that you want to have a roster that's able to consistently make the playoffs. A lot can happen when you make the playoffs, but you can't progress unless you're in the dance. So, let's look at the quarterbacks from playoff teams:

2022: Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Lawrence, Herbert, Lamar, Tua, Hurts, Purdy, Kirk, Brady, Dak, Danny Dimes, Geno. Fully half of the playoff QBs were drafted in the top 10.

2021: Tannehill, Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Carr, Mac Jones, Big Ben, Rodgers, Brady, Dak, Stafford, Kyler, Jimmy G, Hurts. Five of fourteen were drafted in the top 10.

2020: Mahomes, Allen, Big Ben, Tannehill, Lamar, Baker, Phil Rivers, Rodgers, Brees, Russ, Alex Smith/Kyle Allen/Dwayne Haskins/Taylor Heinekie, Brady, Goff, Trubisky. Six of 14.

So now we have a sample size of 42, and 18 of those (43%) were picked in the top 10 of the draft. Of course, there were a lot of top 10 picks that didn't lead teams to the playoffs during this period. But unless you're planning to get a veteran hall of fame quarterback under center (I'd argue that Brady, Big Ben, Rodgers, and Brees were at least as valueable as a top 10 pick), you're better off taking someone high than hoping you get the next Lamar Jackson later in the first round.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

I see what you're saying, but I disagree that we would be completely starting over. I think the only position that we'd really be starting over at is QB.

If (big if) K1 doesn't get it done in 2024, then in 2025 you bring in another QB with a rebuilt oline and WR room, plus a defense that can hold up their end of the bargain.

MO would essentially have two offseasons to prep the roster to allow a rookie QB to be successful, and a cap-friendly rookie QB contract to work with for three years or so after that.

I'm not saying this is "great", or even "good", I'm just saying it's maybe more viable than dumping Williams or Maye into much less favorable environment for the 2024 season.

Plus I'm honestly not that enamored with Maye or Williams. If there was a Tua or a (holds his nose) Burrow getting read to come out, I might be a little more inclined to gamble.

Keim has hamstrung the Cardinals. Let's not flail around like berserkers trying to fix his incompentence. Let's have a thoughtful plan that sets us up for success for years to come.

But Williams is a higher rated prospect than both those guys.

 

[kerouac9]

But Williams is a higher rated prospect than both those guys.

I was gonna say the same thing. Tua was a very risky prospect coming out because of injury.

 

[Crimson Warrior]

But Williams is a higher rated prospect than both those guys.

Hmmm..

C. Williams current YTD 2023 passer rating is 170.1 + 136 yards rushing.

Compare that to Tua's last season at Alabama. 199.4 passer rating and 340 yards rushing.

Or Burrow's last season at LSU - 202.0 passer rating and 368 yards rushing.

Or Murray's 2018 season - 199.2 passer rating and 1,001 yards rushing.

Maybe he's not yet quite as polished as those three, that's possible, but right at this moment, I see him as a half tier below those three players.

Plus there's the maturity issue.

Maybe he'll turn out to be a great pro, but based on everything I've seen this season, he's not worth hitting the eject button on Murray. Just my humble opinion Cbus and I'll give you the last word if you want it.

 

[GatorAZ]

Hmmm.. The cap hit for moving on from Murray after the 2024 season would be much less than after the 2023 season, correct? You know much more about this than I, I will freely concede that.

But anyway, you're inferring that a meh Murray + a better roster following an effective 2023 offseason would translate into ARZ winning maybe seven or eight games. Correct? Hard to argue with that K9.

It sounds like your underlying premise though is that a franchise QB cannot be had if a team is picking outside of the top 10, or at least that the chance of success of doing so is much less. That I'm not so sure about.

Here are the last five NFL MVPs

• 2022: Patrick Mahomes (Quarterback - Kansas City Chiefs)
• 2021: Aaron Rodgers (Quarterback - Green Bay Packers)
• 2020: Aaron Rodgers (Quarterback - Green Bay Packers)
• 2019: Lamar Jackson (Quarterback - Baltimore Ravens)
• 2018: Patrick Mahomes (Quarterback - Kansas City Chiefs)

Mahomes was drafted at 10 of course. But Rodgers was drafted 24th, and Jackson at 32nd (!).

Even if we're drafting at 15 on for the 2025 draft, we can still get our QBOF. It's the ultimate test of a GM, but it can certainly be done.

A 2024 Kyler Murray Trade

There are a lot of moving parts on this deal, but on its surface, this is what it would look like to send Kyler Murray out via trade after the 2023 season.

Pre June 1, 2024

DEAD CAP
Cardinals take on $46.221M of dead cap, all in 2024

NEW TEAM ACQUIRES

YEAR CAP HIT
-2024 $38,850,000
-2025 $32,607,500
-2026 $42,542,500
-2027 $36,335,000
-2028 $46,350,000

- $35M of 2024 compensation will already be fully guaranteed

- $30M of 2025 compensation will become fully guaranteed in March of 2024

- $40M of 2026 compensation becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2025

- $19.5M of 2027 salary becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2026.
If we only focus on these early guarantees, a new team would be acquiring Kyler Murray on a 3 year, $114M contract + $19.5M of guaranteed salary in 2027 for practical purposes. Or in other words, if the new team wants to move off of Murray after 2026, they'll owe him a $19.5M cash payment to do so (not unlike what the Colts just did with Matt Ryan).

The only difference with a Post 6/1 trade is that the Cardinals would see their $46.221M of dead cap split into $13M for 2024, & $33.2M for 2025. This wouldn’t be a likely scenario.
-

Is a Kyler Murray 2024 Trade Plausible?

The Arizona Cardinals walked away from the 2023 NFL draft a winner in many books, and in turn, have ramped up speculation about the idea of moving on from Kyler Murray after 2023.

www.spotrac.com

 

[Crimson Warrior]

I don't understand using MVPs as the metric here. You have a sample size of five, and three players as examples. Pretty weak source of analysis.

I've pretty consistently said that you want to have a roster that's able to consistently make the playoffs. A lot can happen when you make the playoffs, but you can't progress unless you're in the dance. So, let's look at the quarterbacks from playoff teams:

2022: Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Lawrence, Herbert, Lamar, Tua, Hurts, Purdy, Kirk, Brady, Dak, Danny Dimes, Geno. Fully half of the playoff QBs were drafted in the top 10.

2021: Tannehill, Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Carr, Mac Jones, Big Ben, Rodgers, Brady, Dak, Stafford, Kyler, Jimmy G, Hurts. Five of fourteen were drafted in the top 10.

2020: Mahomes, Allen, Big Ben, Tannehill, Lamar, Baker, Phil Rivers, Rodgers, Brees, Russ, Alex Smith/Kyle Allen/Dwayne Haskins/Taylor Heinekie, Brady, Goff, Trubisky. Six of 14.

So now we have a sample size of 42, and 18 of those (43%) were picked in the top 10 of the draft. Of course, there were a lot of top 10 picks that didn't lead teams to the playoffs during this period. But unless you're planning to get a veteran hall of fame quarterback under center (I'd argue that Brady, Big Ben, Rodgers, and Brees were at least as valueable as a top 10 pick), you're better off taking someone high than hoping you get the next Lamar Jackson later in the first round.

That is fascinating! Truly. Thank you for putting this together!

 

[DVontel]

Only going by production over Traits in 2023 is hilarious.

 

[Chopper0080]

If after this season MO dumps Murray for say Williams or Maye, and the new QB is not a legit top 10 NFL QB who can carry the team a little, then MO has sealed the fate of JG and co. (ala Frank Reich), and perhaps his own fate too.

The Cardinals will have used so much capital on a meh-or-worse QB, that they (barring some 2nd/3rd/4th round miracle draft picks) won't be able to win enough games in 2024 for JG/NR/DP (and perhaps even Monti) to keep their jobs.

If instead MO tries to build around Murray, and Murray fails in 2024, MO/JG probably gets an opportunity in 2025 to bring in a new QB. That QB would have a far superior cast of supporting talent and would likely have a better chance to succeed than a QB brought in in 2024.

What I'm saying is that IMHO, the safest long-term approach is to try to build around Murray, see how 2024 goes, and if things don't work out then you move on.

Build the roster some (including the defense) and then if necessary inject your new QBOF.

The latter approach also makes damn well and sure that K1 isn't our guy (I'm still 95% sure he is btw).

No. Even if MOnti and Gannon got bring in a new QB in 2025, they are likely both fired after that season. You can't be awful for that many seasons and get more chances.In this scenario, you just get a rookie QB who has a new HC who didn't draft him and learning a new offense in year 2.

 

[kerouac9]

No. Even if MOnti and Gannon got bring in a new QB in 2025, they are likely both fired after that season. You can't be awful for that many seasons and get more chances.In this scenario, you just get a rookie QB who has a new HC who didn't draft him and learning a new offense in year 2.

Ooh… that’s a full Bears!