Impact Defensive Players With Round 1 Grades

[Mitch]

CB:

* Marshon Lattimore, Ohio St.

Trade Down Options:

* Gareon Conley, Ohio St.
* Quincy Wilson, Florida
* Chidobe Awuzie, Colorado
* Kevin King, Washington
* Tre'Davious White, LSU

S:

* Jamal Adams, LSU
* Malik Hooker, Ohio St.

Trade Down Options:

* Jabrill Peppers, Michigan
* Budda Baker, Washington
* Obi Melifonwu, Connecticut

OLB/Edge:

* Derek Barnett, Tennessee

Trade Down Options:

* Charles Harris, Missouri
* Takkarist McKinley, UCLA
* Taco Charlton, Michigan
* Tim Williams, Alabama
* T.J. Watt, Wisconsin
* Tyus Bowser, Houston
* Jordan Willis, Kansas St.

34DE:

* Solomon Thomas, Stanford
* Jonathan Allen, Alabama

Trade Down Options:

* Malik McDowell, Michigan St.

LB

* Reuben Foster, Alabama
* Haason Reddick, Temple

Trade Down Options:

* Zach Cunningham, Vanderbilt
* Jarrad Davis, Florida

There are 26 1st round worthy players here. Chances are that the Cardinals will be able to draft 2 of them, if 18 offensive players are taken in picks 1-44.

Potential Offensive Players Taken Picks 1-44:

QB:

* Tribuski
* Kizer
* Watson
* Mahomes
* Webb

RB:

* Fournette
* McCaffrey
* Cook
* Kamara

WR:

* Davis
* Williams
* Samuel
* Jones

TE:

* Howard
* Njoku
* Engram
* Shaheen

T:

* Ramczyk
* Bolles
* Robinson

G:

* Lamp
* Feeney

There's 21...if 17 of them are taken prior to #45...the Cardinals could draft 2 immediate impact defensive players with their first two picks, and they could even trade down in round 1 and add another 3rd rounder.

The big question is whether the Cardinals are that serious about drafting one of the QBs.

I could see a scenario where they trade down in Round 1 to add a 3rd rounder...then they take one of the top impact defensive players with their first pick, and then they trade their #45 and #77 picks to try to get back up into the late picks of the 1st round or early picks in the second round in order to take a QB.

My own feeling is to wait until next year to draft a QB. Like Harry said, the Cardinals have forced their own hand in this draft because of immediate needs. QB is not an immediate need.

The way this draft is stacked -- the Cardinals could draft two immediate impact defensive players with their first two picks. I think that is exactly what they should do. If they want to draft a project QB, take Joshua Dobbs, C.J. Bethard or Jerod Evans on Day 3.

Stack the roster this year with as many plug and play prospects as possible. This should be a big help to STs as well.

 

[Dougmo]

This is a great way to think about it. I'll enjoy referring to this on draft day. Getting two solid/impactful defensive starters would be awesome.
Looking at this list, my perfect scenario would be trading down for an additional 3 and picking up Peppers in the 1st and Cunningham in the 2nd.
Hopefully with 2 3rds and the rest of the draft we can get a CB & WR with starting potential and a solid RB to compliment Johnson.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

There's 21...if 17 of them are taken prior to #45...the Cardinals could draft 2 immediate impact defensive players with their first two picks, and they could even trade down in round 1 and add another 3rd rounder.

I 100% agree, and would go as far to say that I would not be surprised if the Cardinals went DB in the 2nd round, and DB in the 3rd round that they don't pick up 3 impact players.

By round three when the Cardinals pick there can only be 77 players drafted, no matter how you cut it, that is fact.

If the NFL goes nuts and drafts nothing but cornerbacks, and safeties in the first two rounds, fine. There will be a steal at the 3rd pick at some position, running back, wide receiver, or an interior offensive lineman.

Or the depth the depth at defensive back will produce a good defensive back in the 3rd that can be an impact as well.

Everything is pointing to this being a deep draft, which means absolutely nothing until the draft class is on the field, but from where the NFL-o-sphere is sitting that seems to be the overall opinion, that it is in fact a deep draft.

 

[az jam]

Mitch, you forgot CB Marlon Humphrey Alabama from you list. Most have him as the #2 CB in rankings. Everything else looks pretty good.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Mitch, you forgot CB Marlon Humphrey Alabama from you list. Most have him as the #2 CB in rankings. Everything else looks pretty good.

Most do. Not all, and I am one that was a big fan of drafting Humphrey at #13. Problem is, the difference between Humphrey and some of the cornerbacks, at least 5 of them, that could be had in round #2 is minimal in my opinion.

The worst kept secret in the 2017 draft is the Cardinals will draft a cornerback, it just matters first or second round. They love Marcus Lattimore and I do not see why for their system.............but that is why I am an engineer and they are NFL coaches and scouts. LOL

 

[Mitch]

Mitch, you forgot CB Marlon Humphrey Alabama from you list. Most have him as the #2 CB in rankings. Everything else looks pretty good.

I've been

Most do. Not all, and I am one that was a big fan of drafting Humphrey at #13. Problem is, the difference between Humphrey and some of the cornerbacks, at least 5 of them, that could be had in round #2 is minimal in my opinion.

The worst kept secret in the 2017 draft is the Cardinals will draft a cornerback, it just matters first or second round. They love Marcus Lattimore and I do not see why for their system.............but that is why I am an engineer and they are NFL coaches and scouts. LOL

I recently re-watched the National Championship game (Clemson vs. Alabama) and I thought Humphrey was only the 3rd best cover man on Alabama (Fitzpatrick and Harrison) and 4th best in the game (behind Tankersley of Clemson). He's very uneven. Aggressive, yes, but doesn't recover as fast as one would expect from a Round 1 CB prospect. He's talented, but I have a 2nd round grade on him. I could be wrong and if we take him I sure hope I'm wrong.

 

[Gandhi]

The worst kept secret in the 2017 draft is the Cardinals will draft a cornerback, it just matters first or second round. They love Marcus Lattimore and I do not see why for their system.............but that is why I am an engineer and they are NFL coaches and scouts. LOL

If they do like Lattimore, it will be right in line with their draft philosophy the last four years - in all the drafts where Keim and Arians has run the show. In the first round, they seems to target athletic freaks with all the potential in the World. I guess the thinking is that they can mold them into being major stars on the team.

This was the case with Jonathan Cooper, who - according to Keim - had the most upside and was the most athletic guard he had ever scouted.

Keim also gushed about the athletic potential of Deone Bucannon, even going on record stating that he knew Bucannon would be a primary target after he watched him at the Combine.

When they selected D.J. Humphries it was both Keim, Arians and Harold Goodwin who praised his potential and athletic upside.

Once again Keim and Arians talked a lot about the potential and ahtletic upside when they discussed the selection of Robert Nkemdiche.

You can even go back and read the scouting reports on these guys. The background story on all of them is that they might be a little raw for the NFL but that they have loads of untapped potential.

Now, their strategy seems to change in the second and third round but the thinking behind their first round picks looks to be somewhat steady. That is also why I continue to believe that would like to select quarterback Deshaun Watson, tight end O.J. Howard og safety Jabrill Peppers in the first round, even though you could easily make the argument that more players fit the description.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

If they do like Lattimore, is will be right in line with their draft philosophy the last four years - in all the drafts where Keim and Arians has run the show. In the first round, they seems to target athletic freaks with all the potential in the World. I guess the thinking is that they can mold them into being major stars on the team.

This was the case with Jonathan Cooper, who - according to Keim - had the most upside and was the most athletic guard he had ever scouted.

Keim also gushed about the athletic potential of Deone Bucannon, even going on record stating that he knew Bucannon would be a primary target after he watched him at the Combine.

When they selected D.J. Humphries it was both Keim, Arians and Harold Goodwin who praised his potential and athletic upside.

Once again Keim and Arians talked a lot about the potential and ahtletic upside when they discussed the selection of Robert Nkemdiche.

You can even go back and read the scouting reports on these guys. The background story on all of them is that they might be a little raw for the NFL but that they have loads of untapped potential.

Now, their strategy seems to change in the second and third round but the thinking behind their first round picks looks to be somewhat steady. That is also why I continue to believe that would like to select quarterback Deshaun Watson, tight end O.J. Howard og safety Jabrill Peppers in the first round, even though you could easily make the argument that more players fit the description.

That is a great observation.

It would make me wonder if they have Jamal Adams at the top of their draft board, because that kid is an athletic freak.

 

[football karma]

Gandhi: good observation

I would add: all but one were in need positions ( DJ Humphries excluded). for all the BPA talk, it seems they target guys with the idea of them coming in and contributing tight away.

Maybe the need thing is a function of drafting in the bottom half of the round where draft values aren't as distinct --

There is a real possibility that if a couple QBs and a RB go in the top 12, the Cards could be looking at an athletic freak but not at a screaming need position (OJ Howard or one of the WRs)

 

[Cardiac]

Really good thread with a great OP Mitch. I would love a trade back in the first rd and acquiring that extra 3rd rd pick this year. I would then use a pick from next year to help move back up in rd 2 or 3 to get a falling gem.

 

[Gandhi]

It would make me wonder if they have Jamal Adams at the top of their draft board, because that kid is an athletic freak.

Well, I think he will be long gone by the time their pick is up but that is beside the point, and I think you could easily be right. First of all, he is a great athlete with huge upside as you wrote but second, and I think of equal importantance, Keim and Arians seems to put a lot of stock into the character and personality of their first round selection (and in the draft as a whole). Cooper, Bucannon, Humphries and Nkemdiche all has strong personalities. While some of them are natural leaders on the field, others of them are unique characters of the field but the common thing seems to be that they have a ton of charisma and in some way they stand out with their personality.

I have read a lot of stuff about Jamal Adams, and everyone who has anything to say about him - and there simply is no exception. It literally is everyone - has extremely high praise for his character, his leadership and how everyone just likes him.

I could see Adams as somewhat of an ideal draft prospect in the eyes of Arians and Keim.

 

[WildBB]

CB:

The big question is whether the Cardinals are that serious about drafting one of the QBs.

I could see a scenario where they trade down in Round 1 to add a 3rd rounder...then they take one of the top impact defensive players with their first pick, and then they trade their #45 and #77 picks to try to get back up into the late picks of the 1st round or early picks in the second round in order to take a QB.

My own feeling is to wait until next year to draft a QB. Like Harry said, the Cardinals have forced their own hand in this draft because of immediate needs. QB is not an immediate need.

Not an immediate need but imminent need at the most important position. I think they're serious and the trade down pick your QB or impact player is the most likely scenario, then back up into the late first early 2nd if they wanted to, otherwise they have the 45 and two 3rd rounders to address needs.

 

[Mitch]

Not an immediate need but imminent need at the most important position. I think they're serious and the trade down pick your QB or impact player is the most likely scenario, then back up into the late first early 2nd if they wanted to, otherwise they have the 45 and two 3rd rounders to address needs.

What we do not know is how long BA will remain HC. If he returns in 2018, does anyone actually think he will start a QB they draft this year? That ain't gonna happen. Steve Keim will do what ot takes to get a veteran starter for BA.

Even if BA retires after this year, isn't it better to draft a QB when they know who the new HC is going to be? Matching QBs to the HC's style is of paramount importance.

I really like Watson and Mahomes. I will be fine if we take either one of them. But, dang, it makes it harder to get excited about when so little was done this off-season to shore up the team's weaknesses.

 

[Cardiac]

What we do not know is how long BA will remain HC. If he returns in 2018, does anyone actually think he will start a QB they draft this year? That ain't gonna happen. Steve Keim will do what ot takes to get a veteran starter for BA.

BA has a history of doing great things with rookie QB's so I don't get why you keep saying otherwise. Plus the scenario above the QB won't be a rookie.

Even if BA retires after this year, isn't it better to draft a QB when they know who the new HC is going to be? Matching QBs to the HC's style is of paramount importance.

I don't get the feeling that BA is ready to retire yet but if he does than I agree and I do want the new HC to have a hand in acquiring the new QB.

I really like Watson and Mahomes. I will be fine if we take either one of them. But, dang, it makes it harder to get excited about when so little was done this off-season to shore up the team's weaknesses.

Disagree with the phrasing of so little being done but I am a bit concerned about the CB and FS positions.

 

[WildBB]

What we do not know is how long BA will remain HC. If he returns in 2018, does anyone actually think he will start a QB they draft this year? That ain't gonna happen. Steve Keim will do what ot takes to get a veteran starter for BA.

Even if BA retires after this year, isn't it better to draft a QB when they know who the new HC is going to be? Matching QBs to the HC's style is of paramount importance.

I really like Watson and Mahomes. I will be fine if we take either one of them. But, dang, it makes it harder to get excited about when so little was done this off-season to shore up the team's weaknesses.

I agree with you. They're not done adding vets imo. If they get a trade down, I believe they will get the QB, and very possibly three impact rookies. One or two of whom should start or play significantly this upcoming season. It's a good draft to shore up some of the spots they really need to address, as you know.
With no trade down in the first they will not take the QB at 13, but then the trade up is still a possibility if Watson or ?? is there later in the first.
As far as BA, from what I've heard he's on board for the youngster. I think the FO is chomping to get someone with upside most head coaches/OC' s should be able to groom well into a system they mtl would prefer not to deviate extremely from, as the offense is used to and consistent at performing in. My2cents..

 

[JeffGollin]

It probably would take too much time, but the following would be worth doing.

Start with the NFL West to keep the project small:

Analyze every draft pick made by AZ, Rams, Niners and Hawks.

Categorize every pick by "High Upside/High Risk", "Low Ceiling/Low Risk" and "Average"

Assign an "Outcome" rating to every player - By letter grades A thru F.

What we want to know is: Whether High Risk or Low Risk or Average drafting strategies resulted in better, worse or meh outcomes.

Later on, this could be refined to include all NFL teams and whether there were differences from position to position.

Example: We drafted Cooper as a high upside/high risk pick. F outcome. Pat Peterson had a ridiculous upside/very low risk. A outcome. Tony Jefferson: Low Upside/Low Risk. B outcome. Ty Mathieu: Not so high upside (off-field/durability). B+ outcome.

What I'm wondering is: Does any one strategy work far better? Is this consistent with how other teams draft and what their W & L numbers reflect?

 

[Mitch]

I agree with you. They're not done adding vets imo. If they get a trade down, I believe they will get the QB, and very possibly three impact rookies. One or two of whom should start or play significantly this upcoming season. It's a good draft to shore up some of the spots they really need to address, as you know.
With no trade down in the first they will not take the QB at 13, but then the trade up is still a possibility if Watson or ?? is there later in the first.
As far as BA, from what I've heard he's on board for the youngster. I think the FO is chomping to get someone with upside most head coaches/OC' s should be able to groom well into a system they mtl would prefer not to deviate extremely from, as the offense is used to and consistent at performing in. My2cents..

Yes, WBB, BA is on board with adding a youngster, but he said it in the context of that he doesn't want to leave the QB cupboard bare the way "Kenny" (Whisenhunt) did.

 

[Gandhi]

Gandhi: good observation

I would add: all but one were in need positions ( DJ Humphries excluded). for all the BPA talk, it seems they target guys with the idea of them coming in and contributing tight away.

To some degree I think you are right, Karma. When they drafted Jonathan Cooper they already had Daryn Colledge and Adam Snyder pencilled in as the starters. Snyder was obviously coming of a bad season, and many considered him to be a free agency bust but he was still there on a huge contract.

When they selected Bucannon, they had Tyrann Mathieu, Rashad Johnson and Tony Jefferson at the position, with Yeremiah Bell still on the open market.

D.J. Humphries was drafted though Bobbie Massie was coming of a fine season, and was considered the starter for the upcoming season.

As for Nkemdiche, the defensive line-rotation were made up of Frostee Rucker, Corey Peters, Red Bryant, Rodney Gunter, Ed Stinson, Josh Mauro and Calais Campbell.

So I guess you could argue that all four of them were considered upgrades at the time, but I also think you could say that there were quality at the positions before the selection.

What I do find interesting, though, and what might actually be your point (I don't want to put words in your mouth), is that all of these picks were probably made with the not so distant future in mind. Specifically, Adam Snyder didn't live up to his contract and most likely wasn't seen as a longterm fix, and Yeremiah Bell was contemplating retirement when Bucannon was selected. Bobbie Massie and Calais Campbell had one year left on their deals when their "replacements" were drafted. In this regard, you could call them need picks, and maybe that could leave some hints as to who they are targeting this year.

 

[WildBB]

What I do find interesting, though, and what might actually be your point (I don't want to put words in your mouth), is that all of these picks were probably made with the not so distant future in mind. Specifically, Adam Snyder didn't live up to his contract and most likely wasn't seen as a longterm fix, and Yeremiah Bell was contemplating retirement when Bucannon was selected. Bobbie Massie and Calais Campbell had one year left on their deals when their "replacements" were drafted. In this regard, you could call them need picks, and maybe that could leave some hints as to who they are targeting this year.

They have so many holes to fill, but QB would be the next one that fits your draft thesis for the Cardinals.

 

[JeffGollin]

Good post, Ghandi.

I think one component of the BPA drafting approach is that you let roster positional pipelines get deeper and shallower "by accident" as BPA's accumulate.

The expectation is that BPA's will, by default - as part of the process - fill needs. But that doesn't always happen.

I'm not so sure I agree that the Cardinals had a grand plan for specific new guys being staged to replace specific old guys (That's one way to poison a locker room). But I do think the Card FO depends on the BPA process to accomplish this on its own (even though it looks as though it was preplanned).

 

[Gandhi]

Good post, Ghandi.

I think one component of the BPA drafting approach is that you let roster positional pipelines get deeper and shallower "by accident" as BPA's accumulate.

The expectation is that BPA's will, by default - as part of the process - fill needs. But that doesn't always happen.

I'm not so sure I agree that the Cardinals had a grand plan for specific new guys being staged to replace specific old guys (That's one way to poison a locker room). But I do think the Card FO depends on the BPA process to accomplish this on its own (even though it looks as though it was preplanned).

I absolutely get what your are saying, Jeff, but I think the whole "best player available"-mantra is sort of irrelevant. My point is that all teams can argue that any of their selections, no matter the player, the position or the round, was the best player available, and they would be correct. It is only a matter of perspective, because what does "best player available" really mean? Is it the best player that fit what the team does schematically? Is it the best player in regards to which players the organisation values the most? Is it the best athlete? Is it the player with the best so-called football-IQ? Is is the best player in some other category?

Even so, that is only one of the reasons I find it boring to hear front office-guys tell how they always select "the best player available". The other reason is that it is way too easy to make that argument. Who can say otherwise? We don't know their board. We don't know how they value the players. How are we going to have any idea as to whether they actually did select the guy they had rated the highest?

So, those are the reasons why I never use the term "best player available". I simply don't know what it means. That said, I still think you are right with what you wrote, and I think we are saying the same thing. If I understand you correctly you are saying that they draft to positions that are not needs right now but would have been it some years from now, had they not filled them with draft picks? I think so too, but the one thing I would add is that Steve Keim - according to himself - works with a three year-plan, and that plan includes contracts. I obviously can't be sure but I really think he drafts with that plan in mind as well.

 

[JeffGollin]

Ghandi - Good call on different definitions of BPA. Mine would be to define it as "available player who can best help the team attain its biggest goal."

Goal could be "to win now." Or it could be "Make playoffs in three years." Or "win the Super Bowl in 5." Or something more immediate/specific like "Improve the pass rush" or something immediate/vague like "Increase overall team speed."

You're right - each team has its own set of goals, priorities and strategies for achieving them.

I'd add that some teams might stack their boards independent of filling needs, others (including the Cards) incorporate "need" into each player's overall rating and some draft for need, but would never admit it.

But that doesn't mean that a BPA approach isn't valid. To illustrate, let me contrast the Coach Mac drafting approach vs. that of his successor, Dennis Green:

IMO - McGinness would single out players he wanted to draft and (from round 2 onward) would draft those players one round earlier than he had to "to make certain he got him." Green was pretty much a BPA guy. Result - Coach Mac's drafts were invariably one round less talented than Green's (i.e. a 3rd round talent would be drafted in round 2, a 5th rounder in round 4 etc.).

I personally favor a BPA approach modified to weigh in need and updated after every Cardinal pick (because team needs change after every pick).