$$$ Impact of cutting David Johnson

[Russ Smith]

From the interviews I am hearing from Drake, he sounds like a mercenary. I think he will take the highest offer no matter where it is.

I get what you mean but I don't think it's as much a mercenary as a guy who understands how it works. He was injured 3 of his 4 years in college, this is his 5th year in the NFL. He's actually young for a 5th year he'll be 26 end of January but given his injury history and first 5 years in the NFL this is his chance to get a "big" contract so as yuou said he's very likely gone if he gets a better offer

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Yes. So would any other NFL player.

RBs should get whatever they can. It's like a 5 year job

 

[ARZCardinals]

I think he will come back strong next year and dominate.

Bahahahahahahahah!!! That's the funniest quote of the year

Beanie 2.0 is 2 games from being out of the league. He will get a shot with another team when cut, but when they see him 'run' he'll be cut there too.

Cutting him vs keeping him and cap implications - I'm not sure - leave that to the new GM

 

[Veer]

We won't let Drake go away after he has proven to be a perfect fit in KK's scheme. And he wouldn't get a better deal on the open market anyway. RBs just don't get paid these days. Nobody wanted Drake when he was available for pennies, and we got him for a late round pick. I can only imagine he'd be happy to stay here after having a career year in half a season and KK riding him like he's always been a workhorse. I can't imagine another team breaking the bank for Drake, at least not more than the Cards will offer.

Remember, even with the mess Keim created, next season we will have a decent amount of cap space. And the cap is only going up.

 

[Solar7]

We won't let Drake go away after he has proven to be a perfect fit in KK's scheme. And he wouldn't get a better deal on the open market anyway. RBs just don't get paid these days. Nobody wanted Drake when he was available for pennies, and we got him for a late round pick. I can only imagine he'd be happy to stay here after having a career year in half a season and KK riding him like he's always been a workhorse. I can't imagine another team breaking the bank for Drake, at least not more than the Cards will offer.

Remember, even with the mess Keim created, next season we will have a decent amount of cap space. And the cap is only going up.

It's just as easy to say he won't get a better deal now that he's succeeding as it is to say "we won't let him go."

People keep harping on how much cap space we have, but I feel like way too many posters here are overlooking that we only have 35 players on the roster for next year, and we need to fill the starting roles of LT, RT, C, WR, DE x2, ILB and OLB. 8 positions in which the year's main starter is not under contract, or not playing their position anymore.

That's going to chew up a ton of this supposed cap room. Hopefully those positions are replaced with solid players, but spending money where we have starting caliber players we'd like to upgrade isn't really reasonable.

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

Also...... the decision on Drake will have already been made by this point. So if he's on the team, we are even more screwed cap wise.

If Drake isn't re-signed, we will need a #1 RB again.


I wonder if this could be where some of Fitz's money goes if he retires. And I also wonder if Drake will use the fact that we signed a RB to a big money deal as a reason to ask for the moon from us in the summer.

Lots of questions. This could go a number of ways as you pointed out. One thing is for sure, this offseason will be very interesting. If a common fan (not a die hard) doesn't follow the offseason moves like we do, he may not even recognize this team next season lol?

 

[Dingding]

This has been said before... but for the original poster...

Cutting DJ:

Option A: 2020 Pre-6/1 Release

2020 Dead Cap: $16,200,000 ( $-1,950,000 difference)

Option B: 2020 Post-6/1 Release

2020 Dead Cap: $13,200,000 ($3,000,000 difference, but not until June 2)
2021 Dead Cap: $3,000,000

Option C: 2021 Pre-6/1 Release

2021 Dead Cap: $3,000,000 ($9,000,000 difference from his $12,000,000 salary that year)

Trading DJ

Assuming a 2020 trade, the other team would take on this salary:

2020 for other team: $11,250,000 (fully guaranteed now as of 3/15/2019)

2021 for other team: $9,000,000 ($2.1M of 2021 salary fully guarantees on 3/20/2020)


Every year of the contract there are $1.05 million in roster bonuses tied to being active, and some potential incentives

Option D: Pre-6/1 Trade

2020 Dead Cap: $6,000,000 (A $8,250,000 difference)

Option E: Post-6/1 Trade
2020 Dead Cap: $3,000,000 ($11,250,000 difference, but not until June 2)
2021 Dead Cap: $3,000,000
​

 

[Dingding]

In regards to trading him... The other team will have the option to bail out of the contract in 2021, but not until he's received $13 million ($11 million of it in 2020). So its like a really expensive 1 year try out. I don't think any team will bite on that.

You could potentially make him more tradable by retaining more than just the $6 million dollar cap hit post trade. Recently the Jets did just this with Leonard Williams. Say the cards made it an $11 million dollar cap hit for themselves and threw in a 5th round pick. The other team would have DJ for 1 year at $8 million, and a 5th rounder.

One item to keep in mind, is its not free to keep him. If he's has little value you are still paying him $14 million to eat a roster spot. The difference between cutting and not cutting him is $2 million.

Can he turn it around?

 

[wit3card]

This has been said before... but for the original poster...

Cutting DJ:

Option A: 2020 Pre-6/1 Release

2020 Dead Cap: $16,200,000 ( $-1,950,000 difference)

Option B: 2020 Post-6/1 Release

2020 Dead Cap: $13,200,000 ($3,000,000 difference, but not until June 2)
2021 Dead Cap: $3,000,000

Option C: 2021 Pre-6/1 Release

2021 Dead Cap: $3,000,000 ($9,000,000 difference from his $12,000,000 salary that year)

Trading DJ

Assuming a 2020 trade, the other team would take on this salary:

2020 for other team: $11,250,000 (fully guaranteed now as of 3/15/2019)

2021 for other team: $9,000,000 ($2.1M of 2021 salary fully guarantees on 3/20/2020)


Every year of the contract there are $1.05 million in roster bonuses tied to being active, and some potential incentives

Option D: Pre-6/1 Trade

2020 Dead Cap: $6,000,000 (A $8,250,000 difference)

Option E: Post-6/1 Trade
2020 Dead Cap: $3,000,000 ($11,250,000 difference, but not until June 2)
2021 Dead Cap: $3,000,000
​

Only Option C D and E are viable everything else is just, not really working in our favor.

Again if Drake takes a normal cheap RB salary 2 Mio or 3 Mio a year 2 years that would make the 3 guys of Drake, DJ and Edmunds a ~20 Mio trio ~7 Mio each that is still super expensive but if all 3 have roles and produce, viable.

But best chase is really D or E and have 8-11 Mio$ to sign another 1-2 players. With 8 Mio $ you can sign a good C,RG, DE, or a TE + a cheaper RB that is good enough to do the job with Edmonds and a draftie.

 

[kerouac9]

Only Option C D and E are viable everything else is just, not really working in our favor.

Again if Drake takes a normal cheap RB salary 2 Mio or 3 Mio a year 2 years that would make the 3 guys of Drake, DJ and Edmunds a ~20 Mio trio ~7 Mio each that is still super expensive but if all 3 have roles and produce, viable.

But best chase is really D or E and have 8-11 Mio$ to sign another 1-2 players. With 8 Mio $ you can sign a good C,RG, DE, or a TE + a cheaper RB that is good enough to do the job with Edmonds and a draftie.

You're crazy to think that's market value for Drake. Here are the likely comps for Drake in free agency:

Duke Johnson Texans $5,203,333 $7,757,000
Mark Ingram Ravens $5,000,000 $6,500,000
Dion Lewis Titans $4,950,000 $8,250,000
Giovani Bernard Bengals $4,850,000 $2,000,000
Tevin Coleman 49ers $4,250,000 $5,250,000
James White Patriots $4,000,000 $4,690,000
Latavius Murray Saints $3,600,000 $7,200,000

 

[ARZCardinals]

Love the trade conversation, but NO ONE and I mean there isn't a team in the NFL that would spend 1/2 of what DJ's contract is. DJ is a washed up RB with no heart and no speed.
All you'd have to do is watch the tape on the guy for the last 3 years and you have all the answers you'd need.

Re: Drake gonna go after the most money he can get...sure I'd buy that. I don't trust Keim setting up any large contracts anymore....mid cap and small cap....sure, but big money...hell no! He's gotten 1 right ...Chandler Jones...the rest have been disasters.

 

[wit3card]

You're crazy to think that's market value for Drake. Here are the likely comps for Drake in free agency:

Duke Johnson Texans $5,203,333 $7,757,000 rushing 1680y recieving 2523y (overpaid this year totally) 5 years (840.6 total yards per year)
Mark Ingram Ravens $5,000,000 $6,500,000 rushing 6970y recieving 1809y 9 years (twice over 1k yards and this year again) (975.4 total yards per year)
Dion Lewis Titans $4,950,000 $8,250,000 rushing 2235y recieving 1262y 7 years totaly overpaid but (1ky all purpose year in 2017 before FA and only missed that on 2018) (499.6 total yards per year)
Giovani Bernard Bengals $4,850,000 $2,000,000 rushing 3274y recieving 2500y 7 years (3 1k all purpose yards years) (824.9 total yards per year)
Tevin Coleman 49ers $4,250,000 $5,250,000 rushing 2840y recieving 1183y 5 years (hit FA after 1k all purpose yards year) overpaid (804.6 total yards per year)
James White Patriots $4,000,000 $4,690,000 rushing 1110y reciving 2752y 6 years (one 1k all purpose yard year and this year maybe again) (643.7 total yards per year)
Latavius Murray Saints $3,600,000 $7,200,000 rushing 4260y recieving 1093y 6 years (1k yards rushing year and twice 1k all purpose yards years) (892.2 total yards per year)

For that money you don't resign him, period, for 5 Mio a year, you have 22 Mio just for 3 guys that on other teams normally sum up 6-8 Mio.

And still, all Drake has is our resume, in Miami he wasn't all that good. He has 1949 career yards in 4 years, that is nothing in comparison to White, Murray, Bernard, Coleman, Ingram or Johnson.

He has 591 yards this yaer, never had more than 644 yards a year, he will have maybe 700 yards this year, maybe but against Rams and Seahawks 2 100 yards game will be really hard, and even getting to 1000 total yards with 200 yards missing will be hard for him.

And recieving yards, 1066 in 4 years. He is a ~ 750 total yards per year RB he had once a 1k all purpose yards year that was last year. Expect for White wo got his contract because of the SB and Lewis too, but Lewis is just one of the most sure handed RB and RB catchers that there are in the game, therefor he gets that money by Bill.

Don't tell me that guy is worth Bernard money, if he asks for it, and someone pays for it, let him go. But if someone in four years isn't able to come by a 1000 yard year, you don't pay him 5 Mio $, you don't. But 3 Mio or 3.5 Mio a bit cheaper than Murray, yes that is okay. That is his worth with 25 years and being generally 100 yards worse than the 4-5 Million $ guys.

 

[DVontel]

It's just as easy to say he won't get a better deal now that he's succeeding as it is to say "we won't let him go."

People keep harping on how much cap space we have, but I feel like way too many posters here are overlooking that we only have 35 players on the roster for next year, and we need to fill the starting roles of LT, RT, C, WR, DE x2, ILB and OLB. 8 positions in which the year's main starter is not under contract, or not playing their position anymore.

That's going to chew up a ton of this supposed cap room. Hopefully those positions are replaced with solid players, but spending money where we have starting caliber players we'd like to upgrade isn't really reasonable.

I’m 95% sure Humphries will be our starting LT next year.

 

[Solar7]

I’m 95% sure Humphries will be our starting LT next year.

Regardless of whether he is or he isn’t, he’s in line for a big contract, and would eat away at the cap number. If he doesn’t get re-signed, do we leave it to a rookie draft pick? I don’t know.

I would prefer to franchise him, which has an even bigger cap impact.

 

[Chopper0080]

For that money you don't resign him, period, for 5 Mio a year, you have 22 Mio just for 3 guys that on other teams normally sum up 6-8 Mio.

And still, all Drake has is our resume, in Miami he wasn't all that good. He has 1949 career yards in 4 years, that is nothing in comparison to White, Murray, Bernard, Coleman, Ingram or Johnson.

He has 591 yards this yaer, never had more than 644 yards a year, he will have maybe 700 yards this year, maybe but against Rams and Seahawks 2 100 yards game will be really hard, and even getting to 1000 total yards with 200 yards missing will be hard for him.

And recieving yards, 1066 in 4 years. He is a ~ 750 total yards per year RB he had once a 1k all purpose yards year that was last year. Expect for White wo got his contract because of the SB and Lewis too, but Lewis is just one of the most sure handed RB and RB catchers that there are in the game, therefor he gets that money by Bill.

Don't tell me that guy is worth Bernard money, if he asks for it, and someone pays for it, let him go. But if someone in four years isn't able to come by a 1000 yard year, you don't pay him 5 Mio $, you don't. But 3 Mio or 3.5 Mio a bit cheaper than Murray, yes that is okay. That is his worth with 25 years and being generally 100 yards worse than the 4-5 Million $ guys.

I have a difficult time understanding your argument that Gio Bernard is better than Kenyan Drake.

 

[Chopper0080]

Regardless of whether he is or he isn’t, he’s in line for a big contract, and would eat away at the cap number. If he doesn’t get re-signed, do we leave it to a rookie draft pick? I don’t know.

I would prefer to franchise him, which has an even bigger cap impact.

Normally I would agree but in rookie QB contract world, you pay him sooner so it doesn't bleed over into Murray's contract window.

One bad contract doesn't cripple a franchise. Multiple bad contracts do. Gresham's contract wasn't a huge albatross on it's own. What made it an issue was all the other bad contracts which surrounded it.

 

[Solar7]

Normally I would agree but in rookie QB contract world, you pay him sooner so it doesn't bleed over into Murray's contract window.

One bad contract doesn't cripple a franchise. Multiple bad contracts do. Gresham's contract wasn't a huge albatross on it's own. What made it an issue was all the other bad contracts which surrounded it.

You’re totally right. I like DJ and want to re-sign him, I just think franchising him gives us a chance to see if we can pick up an elite rookie talent, and sign DJ to a long term deal if we can’t.

All I’m arguing is that DJ is going to carve a good chunk of money out of that big cap number, where I think ASFN’ers are expecting major upgrades with that money. I just don’t see it.

 

[Chopper0080]

You’re totally right. I like DJ and want to re-sign him, I just think franchising him gives us a chance to see if we can pick up an elite rookie talent, and sign DJ to a long term deal if we can’t.

All I’m arguing is that DJ is going to carve a good chunk of money out of that big cap number, where I think ASFN’ers are expecting major upgrades with that money. I just don’t see it.

I think it would be negligent to make DJ one of the top 5 highest paid LTs. Paying between 13.5 mil and 10 mil which is the range of the top 15 highest paid LTs is the cost of doing business IMO. In 4 years if he is not worth it, you can always move on. I would rather overpay an average LT and be able to upgrade our offensive line even more than create more holes and having to throw player in anymore than we have to.

 

[kerouac9]

I think it would be negligent to make DJ one of the top 5 highest paid LTs. Paying between 13.5 mil and 10 mil which is the range of the top 15 highest paid LTs is the cost of doing business IMO. In 4 years if he is not worth it, you can always move on. I would rather overpay an average LT and be able to upgrade our offensive line even more than create more holes and having to throw player in anymore than we have to.

Would you rather lose him over $2 million a year? Maybe when he signs the deal, he'll be a top five or three or highest-paid LT, but in 3 years, he'll be in the Top 10-15 range.

The reality is that we have a QB on a rookie contract. Money doesn't matter; the window is open. Mortgage the future. There is only today.

 

[Solar7]

I think it would be negligent to make DJ one of the top 5 highest paid LTs. Paying between 13.5 mil and 10 mil which is the range of the top 15 highest paid LTs is the cost of doing business IMO. In 4 years if he is not worth it, you can always move on. I would rather overpay an average LT and be able to upgrade our offensive line even more than create more holes and having to throw player in anymore than we have to.

I just don't see any other options of worth on the market. We've gotta fill two OT positions, and as it stands, there's not even really anyone else we should feel excited about past DJ. I get not wanting to overpay, but it's better than having a Justin Murray tier starter at LT next year.

 

[Chopper0080]

Would you rather lose him over $2 million a year? Maybe when he signs the deal, he'll be a top five or three or highest-paid LT, but in 3 years, he'll be in the Top 10-15 range.

The reality is that we have a QB on a rookie contract. Money doesn't matter; the window is open. Mortgage the future. There is only today.

That is the deciding factor IMO. Am I willing to give him 16.5 like Trent Brown got? Maybe if he structures it the same way. Am I going to give him a Lane Johnson contract...no.

If Keim can't negotiate with Humphries at contract that is less than 15 per year, I think it would be another indication he is not fit to be GM.

1 complete season.

No Pro Bowls.

If that doesn't set a bar I don't know what will.

 

[Chopper0080]

And honestly, if DJ wants 16.5 mil...franchise him and draft an OT in round 1. Personally, I think 13.5 gets it done.

 

[kerouac9]

https://overthecap.com/franchise-transition-and-rfa-tenders/

Jeebus. The projected Franchise Tag number for OL is $16.1 Million. That means that D.J. Humphries' guarantees start around $32 million.

I think that Humphries would side a four-year, $60 million contract with $35 guaranteed. I think we would want the fifth year.

 

[wit3card]

I have a difficult time understanding your argument that Gio Bernard is better than Kenyan Drake.

Gio Bernard was better in his career and just because Drake finally has a great stretch, you don't overpay ...

Clearly if Drake plays like that all next season, than he is worth maybe 4-5 but, are you sure that will happen? He had stretches like the one with us in Miami as well, and then disapeared.

 

[Lagerfilled]

Gio Bernard was better in his career and just because Drake finally has a great stretch, you don't overpay ...

Clearly if Drake plays like that all next season, than he is worth maybe 4-5 but, are you sure that will happen? He had stretches like the one with us in Miami as well, and then disapeared.

You mean, Miami disappeared???

Drake is most definitely worth say 3-4yr $15-$25mm and $7-10mm GTD

The question is do we have a dance partner for DJ before we invest and possibly left holding the [emoji383].