In case you're curious

[Agloco]

I found this statistical analysis of point differential quite enlightening. Perhaps some of you might feel the same. Enjoy.

http://www.spursreport.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1169983&postcount=1

 

[elindholm]

Except for the glaring math error and the misunderstanding of statistics, it's an interesting read.

So, please give us the numbers, since I don't know where they are: What is the Spurs' per-possession differential this season, and what is the Suns' over the last dozen or so games, now that they've adjusted to O'Neal?

 

[Agloco]

Except for the glaring math error and the misunderstanding of statistics, it's an interesting read.

So, please give us the numbers, since I don't know where they are: What is the Spurs' per-possession differential this season, and what is the Suns' over the last dozen or so games, now that they've adjusted to O'Neal?

It's not my post so I cannot speak as to the validity of the numbers. Unfortunately I don't have the time to dig them up for this year either. Perhaps one of the posters here could do that? It would make for a good comparison.

I'm quite certain the the Suns per possesion diff has improved since ONeals arrival though.

Oh, BTW, what glaring errors did you notice with respect to the analysis?

 

[elindholm]

It's not my post so I cannot speak as to the validity of the numbers.

It's your post now. If you're telling us that we should read it, you're endorsing it. Or were you just treating this like all the rest of your "evidence" -- throwing it up for a reaction, then ducking your tail and running as soon as someone finds the flaws in it?

Unfortunately I don't have the time to dig them up for this year either.

What, in between the 500 posts per day you make here? Or do you mean that putting in some real research would require actual thought, of which you are incapable?

Perhaps one of the posters here could do that?

Perhaps the posters here are already confident of the Suns' chances against the Spurs this postseason and don't need to bend over backwards to convince the likes of you.

I'm quite certain the the Suns per possesion diff has improved since ONeals arrival though.

I would guess that it has, but maybe the numbers would be surprising.

Oh, BTW, what glaring errors did you notice with respect to the analysis?

The biggest one, of course, is that it attempts to draw a generalization from a tiny sample of only ten champions, seven of which are redundant. If the Lakers and Spurs have won seven of the last ten titles -- and Suns fans already know this, believe it or not, in spite of how committed you are to enlightening us with the insight -- then obviously their styles of play have been successful. That doesn't tell us anything about general trends.

Also, if the author really knew anything about statistics, he would recognize that an R-squared of 0.94 is not especially high. I would guess that other predictors do about as well.

More objectively, the calculation for how often the best W-L team wins the title is wrong. Even accepting the bizarre method for handling ties, it should come out to 32.5%, not 25%.

I could go on, but you get the idea. Besides, I'm supposed to be the one getting educated here, not you, right?

 

[Covert Rain]

This is getting ridiculous already. This is an obvious bait attempt. Please MODS either lock this thread or ban the fool already.

 

[Cheesewater]

This is getting ridiculous already. This is an obvious bait attempt. Please MODS either lock this thread or ban the fool already.

I don't think this thread's going anywhere what with Eric whipping out the Logic Paddle and using it with such skill and alacrity.

 

[Covert Rain]

I don't think this thread's going anywhere what with Eric whipping out the Logic Paddle and using it with such skill and alacrity.

Please don't use words like alacrity...the Trolls don't intellispeak. Oops sorry..I just used slang.

 

[Bufalay]

It's your post now. If you're telling us that we should read it, you're endorsing it. Or were you just treating this like all the rest of your "evidence" -- throwing it up for a reaction, then ducking your tail and running as soon as someone finds the flaws in it?



What, in between the 500 posts per day you make here? Or do you mean that putting in some real research would require actual thought, of which you are incapable?



Perhaps the posters here are already confident of the Suns' chances against the Spurs this postseason and don't need to bend over backwards to convince the likes of you.



I would guess that it has, but maybe the numbers would be surprising.



The biggest one, of course, is that it attempts to draw a generalization from a tiny sample of only ten champions, seven of which are redundant. If the Lakers and Spurs have won seven of the last ten titles -- and Suns fans already know this, believe it or not, in spite of how committed you are to enlightening us with the insight -- then obviously their styles of play have been successful. That doesn't tell us anything about general trends.

Also, if the author really knew anything about statistics, he would recognize that an R-squared of 0.94 is not especially high. I would guess that other predictors do about as well.

More objectively, the calculation for how often the best W-L team wins the title is wrong. Even accepting the bizarre method for handling ties, it should come out to 32.5%, not 25%.

I could go on, but you get the idea. Besides, I'm supposed to be the one getting educated here, not you, right?

Well done Prof.

 

[nowagimp]

I found this statistical analysis of point differential quite enlightening. Perhaps some of you might feel the same. Enjoy.

http://www.spursreport.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1169983&postcount=1

I would also add this to eric's dissection:

Not only was it not enlightening, its kind of "ingnorantly hilarious" in a way. Why include teams at the bottom of the NBA barrel when every one knows they lose for many dysfunctional reasons? Why if the postseason is officiated so differently than the regular season would one use regular season stats on scoring and defense(that the author admits influence these aspects of the game strongly) to predict the post season. And even a remedial (1 course) statistician knows the R2 is dominated by the leverage points(the best and the WORST teams). So why would you use a stat that is admittedly biased by the worst teams to evaluate the chances for the best teams? The funny thing is that if you examine the top(1/5th) of the "cloud" being regressed(the best teams), there is no significant slope, meaning the stats generated only are meaningful if you add in the worst teams that every one knows dont even execute plays well at either end. Hence if you do this analysis for competitive teams it falls apart. Its a good thing the "sheriff" didnt hand this report in to me when I was a graduate assistant, I'd have ripped him a new one.

One of the biggest sins in research is to seek data to support a desired conclusion, rather than to analyze data to determine causality. Many fools have been exposed with this approach.

Oh and I forgot to add that ancillary correlations to other factors must be examined to ascertain whether another correlated statistic actually determines the probability of championship success.

 

[boisesuns]

You must be registered for see images attach

"I support these findings"

 

[Phade]

hi my names loco and i need attention..

 

[nashman]

LOCO LOCO LOCO you are so.... LOCO?

 

[capologist]

So, please give us the numbers, since I don't know where they are: What is the Spurs' per-possession differential this season

Don’t know about per-possession, but the Spurs point differential per game this season is +5.3.

and what is the Suns' over the last dozen or so games, now that they've adjusted to O'Neal?

+6.6 over the last 10.

http://dougstats.com/07-08/PhoenixSunsLF.html

 

[Phade]

i wouldn't be surprised if it was the mods signing up these alter accounts to spice up the site..

 

[cobbler]

i wouldn't be surprised if it was the mods signing up these alter accounts to spice up the site..

Naw. More like the mods know who really take it to a personal level. Know its the same 4 or 5 guys of the troll brigade who cannot actually argue a point without taking it to the dirt. Thats what debating, bantar, and being a fan is all about. Sharing opinions and proving or disproving them in a decent manner.

QUOTE:
Thanks for the message cobbler. You are welcome to stay on the board. Right now we have some Suns fans who think ASFN is like gang turf or something and get hostile to anyone else. For that I apologize.

 

[LV-Suns]

QUOTE:
Thanks for the message cobbler. You are welcome to stay on the board. Right now we have some Suns fans who think ASFN is like gang turf or something and get hostile to anyone else. For that I apologize.

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

Methinks our mods need a crash course in the art of trolling.

 

[Covert Rain]

Naw. More like the mods know who really take it to a personal level. Know its the same 4 or 5 guys of the troll brigade who cannot actually argue a point without taking it to the dirt. Thats what debating, bantar, and being a fan is all about. Sharing opinions and proving or disproving them in a decent manner.

QUOTE:
Thanks for the message cobbler. You are welcome to stay on the board. Right now we have some Suns fans who think ASFN is like gang turf or something and get hostile to anyone else. For that I apologize.

There is a big difference between posting your opinion then creating a Trollish thread to get a rise out of Suns fans. We have several other teams fans on this site who show considerable class.

I.e. Donald. How is it we don't mind those fans yet seem to have a problem with some of the new ones showing up? Unfortunately, I think the Mods are out of touch with some of the new Trolls rolling in here. You have to have the ability to read between the Troll lines. Eventually, the Trollish behavior will become apparent. Until then I have the ignore option.

 

[cobbler]

There is a big difference between posting your opinion then creating a Trollish thread to get a rise out of Suns fans. We have several other teams fans on this site who show considerable class.

I.e. Donald. How is it we don't mind those fans yet seem to have a problem with some of the new ones showing up? Unfortunately, I think the Mods are out of touch with some of the new Trolls rolling in here. You have to have the ability to read between the Troll lines. Eventually, the Trollish behavior will become apparent. Until then I have the ignore option.

Well, I myself am continously called a troll for simply responding with my opinion to threads. I chalk it off to immaturity or human nature. Like say, 10 suns fans can reply to a comment how LB sucked in a game... i make the same comment....and wham! Your a troll etc etc simply cause im a laker fan first. Again, the lack of entertaining opposing fans comments and/or rebuttals and pawning it off as "trollish behaviour" on this site is astronomical compared to others. Just my observation. In addition to that, it's always the same 4 or 5 guys/girls that act like the troll monitors and ALWAYS take it to a personal level. Can't we all get along?

 

[Covert Rain]

Well, I myself am continously called a troll for simply responding with my opinion to threads. I chalk it off to immaturity or human nature. Like say, 10 suns fans can reply to a comment how LB sucked in a game... i make the same comment....and wham! Your a troll etc etc simply cause im a laker fan first. Again, the lack of entertaining opposing fans comments and/or rebuttals and pawning it off as "trollish behaviour" on this site is astronomical compared to others. Just my observation. In addition to that, it's always the same 4 or 5 guys/girls that act like the troll monitors and ALWAYS take it to a personal level. Can't we all get along?

I personally don't have a problem with you. However, you interjected yourself into another Trolls comments. That person is an obvious Troll and it sounded like you were defending them. Probably touched the nerves of many people who have issues with that person.

So my comments are not directed at you. They are directed towards a couple of our more recent "guests". Notice how your not on my ignore list compared to those 2 people.

 

[cobbler]

I personally don't have a problem with you. However, you interjected yourself into another Trolls comments. That person is an obvious Troll and it sounded like you were defending them. Probably touched the nerves of many people who have issues with that person.

So my comments are not directed at you. They are directed towards a couple of our more recent "guests". Notice how your not on my ignore list compared to those 2 people.

I understand.... but i have to tell you, I have read some pretty good posts put up by people here with good research, valid or invalid.... and a lot of people here get personal just because it doesnt agree with their own or support the "suns are gods" theory.

I myself have posted some instigating comments on shaq. Im a huge nash fan. Followed him from Santa Clara days. Big fan of Amare as well. I have always had a huge respect for grant hill even though he was a dukie. I cannot stand Shaq for various reasons and make fun of him. So what? Again, i could be in a thread about how shaq sucks and because you guys know im a laker fan first, the crap flies even if i make the very same comments. Everyone takes everything so personal. Heck, isnt that what being a fan is? My team is better than yours? The rivalry? The bantar? Why does it have to get so personal that you wont even entertain the debate? I dont get it.

I have been told that i have no business being here. That its an Arizona forum!! Come on. By people with locations in LA or NY no less. And i friggen own a house in AZ. Go figure!