Mailbag: Are the Rockets playoff bound?
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Friday, August 22
Updated: August 22
9:42 AM ET
Just when you think that the summer offseason frenzy is slowing down, the Warriors decide to ship out talent to Dallas and Detroit in anticipation of lots of cap space in 2017.
Gotta love those Warriors . . .
The return of the Insider mailbag was a big hit last week, so let's get to your ranting and raving. The feedback from Warriors fans on the two trades was really split right down the middle; you either loved it or hated it. I tried to include both perspectives in the last two questions.
Q: I have been a Rockets fan a long time and I really don't see them going anywhere. They lost James Posey, who had great chemistry with Franchise, and have no real small forward. True, Jeff Van Gundy is a good coach but will he get the Rocks into the playoffs? -- A. J. Miller, Katy, Tex.
FORD: The Rockets are right on the bubble. They have a dominant point guard in Steve Francis and a center, Yao Ming, who I believe will improve dramatically. Now that he's got a year under his belt, and will have a full training camp with his team, I think you'll see him worked seamlessly into the offense. I also like the signing of Eric Piatkowski. He's one of the more underrated players in the league and I think he'll give the team a big boost off the bench with his sharp shooting. Adrian Griffin will also give them some of the defensive intensity they lost in Posey.
That's the good news. The bad news? The small forward and power forward position are issues. Eddie Griffin has shown a lot of promise the past two seasons, but his inconsistency has been maddening. For the Rockets to get into the playoffs next year, he needs to make the leap this year. I think he's capable.
The other position will depend on health. Glen Rice can still give them solid minutes if he's healthy. The same holds true for Maurice Taylor. With Francis, Yao, Griffin and Cuttino Mobley on the floor, no one is asking them to be the primary scorer, just hit an open jumper now and then.
The other wild card is second-year forward Bostjan Nachbar. With Rice in his last year, the Rockets need to see what he's going to give them this year. He really struggled last year and had just a so-so summer. If he doesn't learn how to play defense, Van Gundy won't play him.
In the end, there are six teams -- the Lakers, Kings, Mavs, Spurs, T-Wolves and Suns -- who appear to be locks for the playoffs. The Rockets will be battling the Blazers, Sonics, Clippers and Grizzlies for one of those final two spots. I think they have the edge over the Sonics, Clippers and Grizzlies and should be able to nail down that eighth playoff spot.
Q: The Celtics have been an afterthought in the offseason media coverage. Yes, they have Danny Ainge on board as a recognizable GM. But their big free-agent acquisition was... Mike James? Still, I think they are being underestimated. They still have Paul Pierce. Antoine Walker is supposedly trimmed down and motivated. They have solid veteran role players in Tony Battie, Eric Williams, Walter McCarty and Tony Delk. Marcus Banks brings defense and youthful energy to PG. They made a surprise playoff run two years ago, and unexpectedly knocked off the Pacers last year. Beyond the "Big Two" of N.J. and Detroit, don't the C's deserve some consideration? Naturally I won't factor Vin Baker into my argument, but I like their chances compared to some other Beasts of the Least.-- Sean Abbott, Charlotte
If Antoine Walker is focused and fit, the Celtics should be a factor in the Eastern Conference.
FORD: The key will be Walker. He's been working religiously at Hoops Gym in Chicago and has reportedly lost a ton of weight. If he comes into the season focused and in shape, the Celtics will be back in the fray along with a handful of other teams -- the Pacers, Hornets, Magic, Sixers -- for those No. 3 - No. 6 seeds.
I wasn't a big fan of their offseason moves, but they really don't matter. The improvement that can push them to the next level will come from within. If Kedrick Brown plays the way he did in the summer league, if Baker has a pulse and if Battie can stay healthy, the Celtics won't need their rookies and guys like James to make a difference.
If those guys, however, all fail, I just think your asking for too much from Walker and Pierce. They were both exhausted by the time they hit the playoffs last season. If just one or two of the other guys could step up consistently each night, the Celtics will threaten in the playoffs.
Q: The Clips should not let Odom go. Period. He can play the role of the disgruntled employee all he wants, but he is still a fan favorite even though he hasn't played in two years. Letting him walk sends the wrong message. Not only to the franchise, and the league, but to the fans. -- Matt Hunwardsen, Los Angeles
FORD: Matt, where have you been? Donald Sterling has been sending the wrong message for the past two decades. You're just getting upset about it now?
As for the fans argument. . . somehow Sterling always finds a way to make a nice profit every year. So far, the wrath of the fans has done nothing to his bottom line, which is why he's been able to get away with his frugal ways for so long.
As for Odom, I understand the angst. I think he's an unbelievable talent. I'm just not convinced that he'll ever reach his potential in L.A. He needs discipline, structure and lots of prodding to develop into the type of player most believe he could be. In Miami, I think he gets it and is an all-star in the next two years. In L.A.? Maybe. But the odds are much, much less.
I like what the Clippers have done this summer. Matching Elton Brand and Corey Maggette were both slam dunks. Both have bright futures and their contracts are fair. I'm really on the fence with Odom and I think they are too. He has more talent than anyone on the team, but he also has the biggest downside.
I'm not sure L.A. can afford downside right now. The Clips' future is brighter than it has been for a long time. I'm not sure that I risk Odom destroying it.
Q: I want to work for the Golden State Warriors. They reward ineptitude. Just imagine the job security in Oakland. Garry St Jean has made only one real good move and that was by accident: the drafting of Gilbert Arenas. But alas, he proved his true Warrior nature and lost out on that good fortune. Now, trading Antawn Jamison is a great thing. But this particular trade (for Cliff Robinson) will not help us now nor in the immediate future. We traded a good player in the last year of his contract for a 36-year-old who makes fewer than 40 percent of his shots and has two years to go on his contract. True Golden State ineptitude; ditch the plan to get younger and cheaper players. How can St. Jean still be working in basketball? Oh yeah, we are the Warriors. We should expect nothing more than the worst. -- Steve Larsen, Portland
FORD: Steve, you live in Portland and you're picking on someone else's team. That's sad. I'm not a St. Jean fan, but he's not that bad. Besides, I really don't think you can blame him for this weeks' moves. I think Chris Mullin and owner Chris Cohen are the culprits here.
My only problem with Thursday's trade for Robinson is the mixed signal it sends. Robinson will help the Warriors -- more than Sura would've. He gives them depth and experience at all three frontcourt positions. He'll play defense and passes the ball. As long as they don't expect him to rebound or show up for the playoffs, it's a pretty good move basketball-wise.
Of course, that's not the end of the story. This move all but guarantees that Warriors fans will have to suffer for two seasons before even getting a hint at salary-cap relief during the summer of 2005. Why add a veteran like this on a team that clearly doesn't have a shot at the playoffs? Was Mullin just trying to give them a bit of respectability? I've always believed that if you're going to be bad, be real bad and get that No. 1 pick in the draft. No need to flirt with mediocrity.
Adding Robinson to the mix helps th Warriors, but not enough to get them over the hump. Unless that is, you believe what Kevin Wolf has to say.
Here's the other side of the argument in the interest of fairness . . .
Q: Living in the Bay Area, I get a decent view each year into the train wreck that is the Warriors. However, I have to say the Jamison-for-Nick Van Exel deal pleases me. Frankly speaking, Jamison was the Warriors' greatest albatross. Whether you like him or not, the Warriors invested a first-round pick in Mike Dunleavy. Is he the next Bird? Probably not. Is he a better passer than Jamison? Unquestionably the answer is yes. Over time Dunleavy will grow into his role as point forward and sharp shooter. Finally, Van Exel is the right fit for a team that will play up-tempo basketball and put on a good show (which means lose but have fun). Already I am dreaming of half-court alley oop passes from Nick the Quick to J-Rich. In a nutshell, the Warriors will be no better than last year, but the trade isn't as bad as reported by the "expert" media pundits. In fact, if Dunleavy can progress some, as he showed signs of doing at the end of last year, I like the Warriors to equal last season's win total. Plus, if Euro Jordan Mickael Pietrus comes as advertised, perhaps Richardson can be dealt for more interior size, and "defense" and "Oakland" can be used in the same sentence together. -- Kevin Wolf, San Francisco
FORD: The problem with this analysis is the assumptions it rests on. First, it assumes that Van Exel will be motivated to play in Golden State. The early indications, from sources close to Van Exel, is that he's very upset with the trade. Given Van Exel's tumultuous history on bad teams, that's not good.
Second, you've got to believe that Dunleavy is the cornerstone that you're going to build around. When you trade a 20-plus point a night young small forward to clear up a logjam, the kid can't just be OK. OK gives the Warriors 30 wins a year. He's got to be really, really good down the road. The view on Dunleavy around the league is pretty mixed. Most scouts and GMs feel that, if the 2002 draft was redone, Dunleavy would've slipped into the mid first round, somewhere right behind Tayshaun Prince. If I'm a Warriors fan, that doesn't install a ton of confidence.
Third, Pietrus needs to develop fast. I'm not sure how that's possible with Jason Richardson in front of him. Pietrus is already a much better defender than Richardson, but offensively, he's still very raw. If the Warriors are really serious about having some cap room in 2005, they're going to have to make a judgement on Richardson this year. If they think Pietrus is going to be better (I do) they should move J-Rich and Dampier next summer and try to get a top-flight young big in return.
Overall, it's much tougher to criticize this trade when it's a new management team trying to come in and clean house. My biggest problem with the Warriors? After eight years of ineptitude, they show promise last season, but then are forced to clean house because they never really had a plan for the future. The Warriors are fixing their own mistakes and then asking the fans to pat them on the back for it. Given their history, I'm just not convinced there are enough brain cells in that front office to actually take advantage of their good fortune. They'll overpay for someone, they'll draft the wrong guy, they'll let the wrong free agent go. That's just a gut feeling based on the bad karma in the Bay. But I like my gut on this one.
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Friday, August 22
Updated: August 22
9:42 AM ET
Just when you think that the summer offseason frenzy is slowing down, the Warriors decide to ship out talent to Dallas and Detroit in anticipation of lots of cap space in 2017.
Gotta love those Warriors . . .
The return of the Insider mailbag was a big hit last week, so let's get to your ranting and raving. The feedback from Warriors fans on the two trades was really split right down the middle; you either loved it or hated it. I tried to include both perspectives in the last two questions.
Q: I have been a Rockets fan a long time and I really don't see them going anywhere. They lost James Posey, who had great chemistry with Franchise, and have no real small forward. True, Jeff Van Gundy is a good coach but will he get the Rocks into the playoffs? -- A. J. Miller, Katy, Tex.
FORD: The Rockets are right on the bubble. They have a dominant point guard in Steve Francis and a center, Yao Ming, who I believe will improve dramatically. Now that he's got a year under his belt, and will have a full training camp with his team, I think you'll see him worked seamlessly into the offense. I also like the signing of Eric Piatkowski. He's one of the more underrated players in the league and I think he'll give the team a big boost off the bench with his sharp shooting. Adrian Griffin will also give them some of the defensive intensity they lost in Posey.
That's the good news. The bad news? The small forward and power forward position are issues. Eddie Griffin has shown a lot of promise the past two seasons, but his inconsistency has been maddening. For the Rockets to get into the playoffs next year, he needs to make the leap this year. I think he's capable.
The other position will depend on health. Glen Rice can still give them solid minutes if he's healthy. The same holds true for Maurice Taylor. With Francis, Yao, Griffin and Cuttino Mobley on the floor, no one is asking them to be the primary scorer, just hit an open jumper now and then.
The other wild card is second-year forward Bostjan Nachbar. With Rice in his last year, the Rockets need to see what he's going to give them this year. He really struggled last year and had just a so-so summer. If he doesn't learn how to play defense, Van Gundy won't play him.
In the end, there are six teams -- the Lakers, Kings, Mavs, Spurs, T-Wolves and Suns -- who appear to be locks for the playoffs. The Rockets will be battling the Blazers, Sonics, Clippers and Grizzlies for one of those final two spots. I think they have the edge over the Sonics, Clippers and Grizzlies and should be able to nail down that eighth playoff spot.
Q: The Celtics have been an afterthought in the offseason media coverage. Yes, they have Danny Ainge on board as a recognizable GM. But their big free-agent acquisition was... Mike James? Still, I think they are being underestimated. They still have Paul Pierce. Antoine Walker is supposedly trimmed down and motivated. They have solid veteran role players in Tony Battie, Eric Williams, Walter McCarty and Tony Delk. Marcus Banks brings defense and youthful energy to PG. They made a surprise playoff run two years ago, and unexpectedly knocked off the Pacers last year. Beyond the "Big Two" of N.J. and Detroit, don't the C's deserve some consideration? Naturally I won't factor Vin Baker into my argument, but I like their chances compared to some other Beasts of the Least.-- Sean Abbott, Charlotte
If Antoine Walker is focused and fit, the Celtics should be a factor in the Eastern Conference.
FORD: The key will be Walker. He's been working religiously at Hoops Gym in Chicago and has reportedly lost a ton of weight. If he comes into the season focused and in shape, the Celtics will be back in the fray along with a handful of other teams -- the Pacers, Hornets, Magic, Sixers -- for those No. 3 - No. 6 seeds.
I wasn't a big fan of their offseason moves, but they really don't matter. The improvement that can push them to the next level will come from within. If Kedrick Brown plays the way he did in the summer league, if Baker has a pulse and if Battie can stay healthy, the Celtics won't need their rookies and guys like James to make a difference.
If those guys, however, all fail, I just think your asking for too much from Walker and Pierce. They were both exhausted by the time they hit the playoffs last season. If just one or two of the other guys could step up consistently each night, the Celtics will threaten in the playoffs.
Q: The Clips should not let Odom go. Period. He can play the role of the disgruntled employee all he wants, but he is still a fan favorite even though he hasn't played in two years. Letting him walk sends the wrong message. Not only to the franchise, and the league, but to the fans. -- Matt Hunwardsen, Los Angeles
FORD: Matt, where have you been? Donald Sterling has been sending the wrong message for the past two decades. You're just getting upset about it now?
As for the fans argument. . . somehow Sterling always finds a way to make a nice profit every year. So far, the wrath of the fans has done nothing to his bottom line, which is why he's been able to get away with his frugal ways for so long.
As for Odom, I understand the angst. I think he's an unbelievable talent. I'm just not convinced that he'll ever reach his potential in L.A. He needs discipline, structure and lots of prodding to develop into the type of player most believe he could be. In Miami, I think he gets it and is an all-star in the next two years. In L.A.? Maybe. But the odds are much, much less.
I like what the Clippers have done this summer. Matching Elton Brand and Corey Maggette were both slam dunks. Both have bright futures and their contracts are fair. I'm really on the fence with Odom and I think they are too. He has more talent than anyone on the team, but he also has the biggest downside.
I'm not sure L.A. can afford downside right now. The Clips' future is brighter than it has been for a long time. I'm not sure that I risk Odom destroying it.
Q: I want to work for the Golden State Warriors. They reward ineptitude. Just imagine the job security in Oakland. Garry St Jean has made only one real good move and that was by accident: the drafting of Gilbert Arenas. But alas, he proved his true Warrior nature and lost out on that good fortune. Now, trading Antawn Jamison is a great thing. But this particular trade (for Cliff Robinson) will not help us now nor in the immediate future. We traded a good player in the last year of his contract for a 36-year-old who makes fewer than 40 percent of his shots and has two years to go on his contract. True Golden State ineptitude; ditch the plan to get younger and cheaper players. How can St. Jean still be working in basketball? Oh yeah, we are the Warriors. We should expect nothing more than the worst. -- Steve Larsen, Portland
FORD: Steve, you live in Portland and you're picking on someone else's team. That's sad. I'm not a St. Jean fan, but he's not that bad. Besides, I really don't think you can blame him for this weeks' moves. I think Chris Mullin and owner Chris Cohen are the culprits here.
My only problem with Thursday's trade for Robinson is the mixed signal it sends. Robinson will help the Warriors -- more than Sura would've. He gives them depth and experience at all three frontcourt positions. He'll play defense and passes the ball. As long as they don't expect him to rebound or show up for the playoffs, it's a pretty good move basketball-wise.
Of course, that's not the end of the story. This move all but guarantees that Warriors fans will have to suffer for two seasons before even getting a hint at salary-cap relief during the summer of 2005. Why add a veteran like this on a team that clearly doesn't have a shot at the playoffs? Was Mullin just trying to give them a bit of respectability? I've always believed that if you're going to be bad, be real bad and get that No. 1 pick in the draft. No need to flirt with mediocrity.
Adding Robinson to the mix helps th Warriors, but not enough to get them over the hump. Unless that is, you believe what Kevin Wolf has to say.
Here's the other side of the argument in the interest of fairness . . .
Q: Living in the Bay Area, I get a decent view each year into the train wreck that is the Warriors. However, I have to say the Jamison-for-Nick Van Exel deal pleases me. Frankly speaking, Jamison was the Warriors' greatest albatross. Whether you like him or not, the Warriors invested a first-round pick in Mike Dunleavy. Is he the next Bird? Probably not. Is he a better passer than Jamison? Unquestionably the answer is yes. Over time Dunleavy will grow into his role as point forward and sharp shooter. Finally, Van Exel is the right fit for a team that will play up-tempo basketball and put on a good show (which means lose but have fun). Already I am dreaming of half-court alley oop passes from Nick the Quick to J-Rich. In a nutshell, the Warriors will be no better than last year, but the trade isn't as bad as reported by the "expert" media pundits. In fact, if Dunleavy can progress some, as he showed signs of doing at the end of last year, I like the Warriors to equal last season's win total. Plus, if Euro Jordan Mickael Pietrus comes as advertised, perhaps Richardson can be dealt for more interior size, and "defense" and "Oakland" can be used in the same sentence together. -- Kevin Wolf, San Francisco
FORD: The problem with this analysis is the assumptions it rests on. First, it assumes that Van Exel will be motivated to play in Golden State. The early indications, from sources close to Van Exel, is that he's very upset with the trade. Given Van Exel's tumultuous history on bad teams, that's not good.
Second, you've got to believe that Dunleavy is the cornerstone that you're going to build around. When you trade a 20-plus point a night young small forward to clear up a logjam, the kid can't just be OK. OK gives the Warriors 30 wins a year. He's got to be really, really good down the road. The view on Dunleavy around the league is pretty mixed. Most scouts and GMs feel that, if the 2002 draft was redone, Dunleavy would've slipped into the mid first round, somewhere right behind Tayshaun Prince. If I'm a Warriors fan, that doesn't install a ton of confidence.
Third, Pietrus needs to develop fast. I'm not sure how that's possible with Jason Richardson in front of him. Pietrus is already a much better defender than Richardson, but offensively, he's still very raw. If the Warriors are really serious about having some cap room in 2005, they're going to have to make a judgement on Richardson this year. If they think Pietrus is going to be better (I do) they should move J-Rich and Dampier next summer and try to get a top-flight young big in return.
Overall, it's much tougher to criticize this trade when it's a new management team trying to come in and clean house. My biggest problem with the Warriors? After eight years of ineptitude, they show promise last season, but then are forced to clean house because they never really had a plan for the future. The Warriors are fixing their own mistakes and then asking the fans to pat them on the back for it. Given their history, I'm just not convinced there are enough brain cells in that front office to actually take advantage of their good fortune. They'll overpay for someone, they'll draft the wrong guy, they'll let the wrong free agent go. That's just a gut feeling based on the bad karma in the Bay. But I like my gut on this one.
