Gators devour tourney, might sink teeth into lottery
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
A great performance in an NCAA title game can propel an average draft prospect to star status.
One month ago, Florida's trio of Joakim Noah, Corey Brewer and Al Horford were all considered mid-first-round picks.
Now? All three look like lottery picks, if they declare.
Will they?
I'll try to answer that question as I break down -- one last time -- who's hot and who's not in the NCAA Tournament.
WHO'S HOT
AP Photo/Mark Humphrey
Joakim Noah has powered his way to the top of draft boards.
Joakim Noah, PF/C, Florida
He capped an amazing tournament with a near-perfect championship game -- a Carmelo Anthony-esque breakout that has propelled him into contention to be the No. 1 pick in the draft. Of the NBA scouts and executives I talked to the past few days, all said they'd consider Noah if they had the No. 1 pick.
Noah did a little of everything in the tournament -- scored both inside and out, blocked shots at a record pace, crashed the glass on both ends, handled the ball on the break, made passes only point guards are supposed to know how to make. In short, he was everywhere, a 7-foot Andrei Kirilenko.
Scouts worry about his lack of strength and relatively raw skills on the offensive end. But those concerns pale in comparison to his upside. Noah, like every other prospect, could improve with another year in school. But his draft stock is as high as it will ever be.
Noah may have started the season as an unknown, but it's tough to deny the consistency he's had the last month. Noah, not J.J. Redick or Adam Morrison, has been the best player in college basketball in the month of March. When you're a 7-footer, athletic and the best player in the nation, that usually adds up to being the No. 1 pick.
Noah has been fairly adamant that he's returning to school. But now that he's won a championship and is a virtual lock as a top-five pick, our guess is that he's in the NBA next year.
Al Horford, PF, Florida
Horford didn't fill up tournament box scores the way Noah did, but he was just as essential to the Gators' championship run. And unlike Noah, Horford has the body and skill set needed to play in the NBA right away. He was a beast as a shot-blocker and rebounder, and he amazed scouts with his ability to handle the ball under pressure in the open court.
Horford needs a lot more polish on the offensive end, but he has everything else you want in a power player -- the length, strength, motor, athleticism and basketball IQ that coaches crave in a power forward. And he sure can dunk.
His dad, former NBA player Tito Horford, says his son is returning to Florida for his junior season. Of Florida's Big Three, Horford is the one whose draft stock would likely benefit most from another year at Florida. Right now, he is projected to be a lottery pick, but another year of development on the offensive end at Florida could propel him into the top five in 2007.
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
Corey Brewer's sitting pretty after a strong tourney run.
Corey Brewer, SG/SF, Florida
The comparisons to Detroit's Tayshaun Prince seem dead on. At 6-foot-8, Brewer is a long, athletic swingman who's an efficient scorer on the offensive end and a nightmare on the defensive end because of his length and athleticism.
As good as Noah was against UCLA, Brewer was the key early in the game, with his stifling defense on Arron Afflalo and his sweet shooting from long distance. He didn't make many shots in the second half, but his defense helped keep UCLA from coming back.
Scouts soured on Brewer a little in February after he struggled coming back from an injury. Specifically, scouts wondered what happened to the sweet jumper he showed his freshman year. It returned in March and April, with Brewer shooting 11-of-20 from 3-point range for the tourney, dissipating some of the concerns.
Brewer has excellent size and athleticism for his position in the pros. He needs to add more strength, but the success of Prince helps him in that department -- the Pistons' employment of Prince has provided a template for a player like Brewer.
Several weeks ago, Brewer said he wouldn't declare for the draft because he wasn't a lock for the lottery. But two things may sway him to go pro.
One, if Noah and Horford decide to declare, Brewer may decide to join them on the parade out of town. Two, given his play of late, the lottery looks more in reach than ever. If he can prove to scouts that his shooting woes were an aberration, Brewer will be a candidate for the late lottery, though some see him as more likely to go in the middle of the first round.
As with Noah and Horford, another year in school would certainly benefit Brewer's game -- but, coming off the NCAA title game, will his draft stock ever be higher?
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, SF, UCLA
Forget for a second the lackluster title game against Florida. For much of the game he was facing Horford, a terrible matchup for Mbah a Moute.
His play during the rest of the tournament has made him one of the hottest names in the tournament. Mbah a Moute is a long, athletic forward who does a little of everything. He crashes the glass, is a lock-down defender and has an emerging offensive game. His quickness and athleticism make him a great slasher and finisher and he has a great motor on both ends of the floor.
In the Chicago Tribune, one scout referred to him as "Ron Artest without the crazy." Given what we've seen in the tournament, that's a great comparison.
The Florida game made it clear that he's still learning the game. He's not a great shooter, which limits what he can do offensively if a big guy takes away the inside game. He is mistake-prone and streaky, but most scouts attribute that to his relative lack of experience.
Despite the dud against Florida, his stellar play against LSU in the Final Four combined with great games against Belmont, Alabama and Gonzaga have scouts talking about him as a potential first-round pick. While another year at UCLA would obviously benefit his game greatly, if he comes out, he could be a sleeper.
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
Farmar runs the pick-and-roll expertly for the Bruins.
Jordan Farmar, PG, UCLA
Farmar was the only UCLA player to show up for the title game. He single-handedly kept them in the game in the first half before trailing off in the second. Farmar showed why scouts regard him as one of the best point guard prospects in the draft.
Although he's been criticized in the past for playing out of control, he played within himself against Florida and found a good balance between scoring and getting his teammates involved. He finished with only four assists, but if his teammates had been able to finish, he would've had more.
While Farmar's play throughout the tournament has been strong, all the NBA scouts Insider spoke with thought he needed to return for his junior season. His 3-point shooting has been a serious question mark. He was 1-of-8 from beyond the arc against Florida and shot just 34 percent from 3-point land this season. That, combined with a high turnover rate this season, have scouts convinced his game still needs work.
While Farmar would have an outside chance at the first round this year, a strong junior season for UCLA could plant him firmly in the mid-to-late first round.
WHO'S NOT
Glen Davis, PF, LSU
"Big Baby" was having a magical run in the tournament, but he hit the wall against UCLA. The Bruins' combination of size, athleticism and conditioning were too much for him. Davis played hard the entire game, but it was clear that he couldn't keep up on either end of the floor.
Unfortunately for Davis, scouts took notice. The knock on Davis all season centered on his lack of height and conditioning. Davis had been able to hide those faults earlier in the tournament, but UCLA exposed them Saturday.
Davis was probably just a second-round pick before the game and apparently sealed that assessment with his semifinal performance. Another year at LSU, minus 20 to 30 pounds, is what he needs to get into the first round.
Arron Afflalo, SG, UCLA
Brewer absolutely dominated Afflalo in the first half. By the time Afflalo got it going in the second half, the game was out of reach. Afflalo doesn't have the athleticism or size to compete against long, athletic players like Brewer. He's likely to have similar problems in the pros. Combine that with a shaky performance against LSU and it's probably a given that Afflalo needs to rejoin Farmar in the UCLA backcourt next year.
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
Many teams would still consider grabbing Tyrus Thomas at No. 1.
Tyrus Thomas, PF, LSU
It's hard to knock Thomas after such a great tournament. But on Saturday, LSU coach John Brady sat Thomas for most of the second half and then criticized him after the Tigers' loss to UCLA.
Fact is, Thomas wasn't terrible against UCLA. In the first half he had five points, five rebounds and three blocks. That wasn't bad, considering he played just nine minutes because of foul trouble. When Thomas was ineffective in the first eight minutes of the second half, Brady benched him and never let him back into the game.
Afterward, Brady said Thomas was not in the right mind-set to play. This piggybacks on his constant criticism that Thomas was thinking about the NBA.
However, scouts question Brady's motives. Is the coach trying to protect his player from making a bad decision, or is he selfishly attempting to keep him at LSU because of his value to the team?
Given that Brady is currently threatening to look at other jobs if LSU doesn't give him a pay raise, it may be hard for him to convince Thomas that he should turn down millions of guaranteed dollars to return to LSU for another year.
Scouts agree with Brady in principle -- Thomas would benefit from another year in college. But he is a likely top-three pick in the draft. It's tough for anyone to turn that down.
Despite the low production against UCLA, scouts still have Thomas penciled in as a top-three pick, with a majority of scouts now saying they would take him No. 1 overall, if the draft were today.
Workouts and physicals will continue to shift the draft order, but if Thomas does decide to declare, his stock is still in great shape.
Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
A great performance in an NCAA title game can propel an average draft prospect to star status.
One month ago, Florida's trio of Joakim Noah, Corey Brewer and Al Horford were all considered mid-first-round picks.
Now? All three look like lottery picks, if they declare.
Will they?
I'll try to answer that question as I break down -- one last time -- who's hot and who's not in the NCAA Tournament.
WHO'S HOT
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AP Photo/Mark Humphrey
Joakim Noah has powered his way to the top of draft boards.
Joakim Noah, PF/C, Florida
He capped an amazing tournament with a near-perfect championship game -- a Carmelo Anthony-esque breakout that has propelled him into contention to be the No. 1 pick in the draft. Of the NBA scouts and executives I talked to the past few days, all said they'd consider Noah if they had the No. 1 pick.
Noah did a little of everything in the tournament -- scored both inside and out, blocked shots at a record pace, crashed the glass on both ends, handled the ball on the break, made passes only point guards are supposed to know how to make. In short, he was everywhere, a 7-foot Andrei Kirilenko.
Scouts worry about his lack of strength and relatively raw skills on the offensive end. But those concerns pale in comparison to his upside. Noah, like every other prospect, could improve with another year in school. But his draft stock is as high as it will ever be.
Noah may have started the season as an unknown, but it's tough to deny the consistency he's had the last month. Noah, not J.J. Redick or Adam Morrison, has been the best player in college basketball in the month of March. When you're a 7-footer, athletic and the best player in the nation, that usually adds up to being the No. 1 pick.
Noah has been fairly adamant that he's returning to school. But now that he's won a championship and is a virtual lock as a top-five pick, our guess is that he's in the NBA next year.
Al Horford, PF, Florida
Horford didn't fill up tournament box scores the way Noah did, but he was just as essential to the Gators' championship run. And unlike Noah, Horford has the body and skill set needed to play in the NBA right away. He was a beast as a shot-blocker and rebounder, and he amazed scouts with his ability to handle the ball under pressure in the open court.
Horford needs a lot more polish on the offensive end, but he has everything else you want in a power player -- the length, strength, motor, athleticism and basketball IQ that coaches crave in a power forward. And he sure can dunk.
His dad, former NBA player Tito Horford, says his son is returning to Florida for his junior season. Of Florida's Big Three, Horford is the one whose draft stock would likely benefit most from another year at Florida. Right now, he is projected to be a lottery pick, but another year of development on the offensive end at Florida could propel him into the top five in 2007.
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Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
Corey Brewer's sitting pretty after a strong tourney run.
Corey Brewer, SG/SF, Florida
The comparisons to Detroit's Tayshaun Prince seem dead on. At 6-foot-8, Brewer is a long, athletic swingman who's an efficient scorer on the offensive end and a nightmare on the defensive end because of his length and athleticism.
As good as Noah was against UCLA, Brewer was the key early in the game, with his stifling defense on Arron Afflalo and his sweet shooting from long distance. He didn't make many shots in the second half, but his defense helped keep UCLA from coming back.
Scouts soured on Brewer a little in February after he struggled coming back from an injury. Specifically, scouts wondered what happened to the sweet jumper he showed his freshman year. It returned in March and April, with Brewer shooting 11-of-20 from 3-point range for the tourney, dissipating some of the concerns.
Brewer has excellent size and athleticism for his position in the pros. He needs to add more strength, but the success of Prince helps him in that department -- the Pistons' employment of Prince has provided a template for a player like Brewer.
Several weeks ago, Brewer said he wouldn't declare for the draft because he wasn't a lock for the lottery. But two things may sway him to go pro.
One, if Noah and Horford decide to declare, Brewer may decide to join them on the parade out of town. Two, given his play of late, the lottery looks more in reach than ever. If he can prove to scouts that his shooting woes were an aberration, Brewer will be a candidate for the late lottery, though some see him as more likely to go in the middle of the first round.
As with Noah and Horford, another year in school would certainly benefit Brewer's game -- but, coming off the NCAA title game, will his draft stock ever be higher?
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, SF, UCLA
Forget for a second the lackluster title game against Florida. For much of the game he was facing Horford, a terrible matchup for Mbah a Moute.
His play during the rest of the tournament has made him one of the hottest names in the tournament. Mbah a Moute is a long, athletic forward who does a little of everything. He crashes the glass, is a lock-down defender and has an emerging offensive game. His quickness and athleticism make him a great slasher and finisher and he has a great motor on both ends of the floor.
In the Chicago Tribune, one scout referred to him as "Ron Artest without the crazy." Given what we've seen in the tournament, that's a great comparison.
The Florida game made it clear that he's still learning the game. He's not a great shooter, which limits what he can do offensively if a big guy takes away the inside game. He is mistake-prone and streaky, but most scouts attribute that to his relative lack of experience.
Despite the dud against Florida, his stellar play against LSU in the Final Four combined with great games against Belmont, Alabama and Gonzaga have scouts talking about him as a potential first-round pick. While another year at UCLA would obviously benefit his game greatly, if he comes out, he could be a sleeper.
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Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
Farmar runs the pick-and-roll expertly for the Bruins.
Jordan Farmar, PG, UCLA
Farmar was the only UCLA player to show up for the title game. He single-handedly kept them in the game in the first half before trailing off in the second. Farmar showed why scouts regard him as one of the best point guard prospects in the draft.
Although he's been criticized in the past for playing out of control, he played within himself against Florida and found a good balance between scoring and getting his teammates involved. He finished with only four assists, but if his teammates had been able to finish, he would've had more.
While Farmar's play throughout the tournament has been strong, all the NBA scouts Insider spoke with thought he needed to return for his junior season. His 3-point shooting has been a serious question mark. He was 1-of-8 from beyond the arc against Florida and shot just 34 percent from 3-point land this season. That, combined with a high turnover rate this season, have scouts convinced his game still needs work.
While Farmar would have an outside chance at the first round this year, a strong junior season for UCLA could plant him firmly in the mid-to-late first round.
WHO'S NOT
Glen Davis, PF, LSU
"Big Baby" was having a magical run in the tournament, but he hit the wall against UCLA. The Bruins' combination of size, athleticism and conditioning were too much for him. Davis played hard the entire game, but it was clear that he couldn't keep up on either end of the floor.
Unfortunately for Davis, scouts took notice. The knock on Davis all season centered on his lack of height and conditioning. Davis had been able to hide those faults earlier in the tournament, but UCLA exposed them Saturday.
Davis was probably just a second-round pick before the game and apparently sealed that assessment with his semifinal performance. Another year at LSU, minus 20 to 30 pounds, is what he needs to get into the first round.
Arron Afflalo, SG, UCLA
Brewer absolutely dominated Afflalo in the first half. By the time Afflalo got it going in the second half, the game was out of reach. Afflalo doesn't have the athleticism or size to compete against long, athletic players like Brewer. He's likely to have similar problems in the pros. Combine that with a shaky performance against LSU and it's probably a given that Afflalo needs to rejoin Farmar in the UCLA backcourt next year.
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Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
Many teams would still consider grabbing Tyrus Thomas at No. 1.
Tyrus Thomas, PF, LSU
It's hard to knock Thomas after such a great tournament. But on Saturday, LSU coach John Brady sat Thomas for most of the second half and then criticized him after the Tigers' loss to UCLA.
Fact is, Thomas wasn't terrible against UCLA. In the first half he had five points, five rebounds and three blocks. That wasn't bad, considering he played just nine minutes because of foul trouble. When Thomas was ineffective in the first eight minutes of the second half, Brady benched him and never let him back into the game.
Afterward, Brady said Thomas was not in the right mind-set to play. This piggybacks on his constant criticism that Thomas was thinking about the NBA.
However, scouts question Brady's motives. Is the coach trying to protect his player from making a bad decision, or is he selfishly attempting to keep him at LSU because of his value to the team?
Given that Brady is currently threatening to look at other jobs if LSU doesn't give him a pay raise, it may be hard for him to convince Thomas that he should turn down millions of guaranteed dollars to return to LSU for another year.
Scouts agree with Brady in principle -- Thomas would benefit from another year in college. But he is a likely top-three pick in the draft. It's tough for anyone to turn that down.
Despite the low production against UCLA, scouts still have Thomas penciled in as a top-three pick, with a majority of scouts now saying they would take him No. 1 overall, if the draft were today.
Workouts and physicals will continue to shift the draft order, but if Thomas does decide to declare, his stock is still in great shape.
Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.
