Insider - Dec. 1st, Size does matter in the NBA

[sunsfn]

Size really does matter in the NBA
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Monday, December 1
Updated: December 1
8:26 AM ET


The funny thing about trends is that there always seems to be one when you need to explain a perplexing problem. Five weeks into the regular season we've discovered two truths that appear to be dominating the outcome of the 2003-04 NBA season.

No. 1: If you want to be a top 10 team, you better have a serviceable-to-dominant big man to play somewhere in the paint.

No. 2: Buyer beware. Of the 10 worst teams in the league, all of them are suffering the effects of a bad contract or trade gone sour. All of them.

Insider breaks down the most intriguing story lines from Week 5, including that reign of big men, an astounding number of good deals gone bad, and the latest on the Bulls-Raptors junk swap.


Size really does matter: People can trumpet Baron Davis or Allen Iverson all they want for MVP this year. Their individual success on the court certainly warrants it.
But if you want to know the real team MVP all you need to know is this: He stands 6-foot-10 or taller, grabs around 10 rebounds a game, blocks two to three shots a game and intimidates the hell out of anyone that gets in his way.

Teams have been claiming for years that one good big man equals two or three great little guys, and the first month of this NBA season tends to bolster that argument.

Of the top 10 teams in the NBA (albeit a subjective top 10), all of them have at least one decent big man playing either the four or the five. Let's break it down for you.

1. Lakers -- Shaquille O'Neal, Karl Malone
2. Pacers -- Jermaine O'Neal
3. Kings -- Brad Miller, Vlade Divac, and Chris Webber
4. Mavericks -- Dirk Nowitzki
5. Pistons -- Ben Wallace
6. Hornets -- P.J. Brown and Jamaal Magloire
7. Spurs -- Tim Duncan, Rasho Nesterovic
8. Rockets -- Yao Ming
9. T-Wolves -- Kevin Garnett, Michael Olowokandi
10. Nuggets -- Marcus Camby, Nene

In fact, there are only two teams that are even sniffing at the top 10 -- Philly (9-9) and Seattle (8-6) -- that don't have a big man really worth writing about.

Having a decent big man doesn't guarantee you success (see the Bulls and Eddy Curry or the Cavs and Zydrunas Ilgauskas), but not having one is suicide.

Now you know why Rod Thorn blew all that guaranteed money on Alonzo Mourning this summer. Or why the Kings overpaid for Miller, the Knicks were obsessed with Dikembe Mutombo and Kiki Vandeweghe threw caution to the wind last year and drafted two raw big men over more proven college stars.

Why else do you think Pistons GM Joe Dumars passed on Carmelo Anthony for Darko Milicic? If Darko were 6-foot-7 (like Anthony), Dumars would've grabbed Melo in a heart beat. But the chance for Darko to turn into one of the guys listed above makes the reward worth the risk.


Buyer Beware: The other trend that really stands out is how many bad teams are suffering from a bad free-agent signing or trade.
Whether a GM overpaid, a tragic injury sidelined a key player, or a team just misjudged a guy's talent, one thing is pretty clear -- there is little margin for error in the NBA these days.

With a hard cap, strict rules on trades and free-agent signings, the looming luxury tax and little financial relief for teams that slip up, one bad move can haunt a franchise for years.

Several GMs have been quietly petitioning the league for a change in the collective bargaining agreement that would essentially allow franchises to recover more quickly when they make a catastrophic mistake.

Nicknamed the "My Bad Rule" by at least on current GM, the change would allow teams to essentially waive one bad contract a year from their books. While the team would still be on the hook for the money owed the player, the "My Bad Rule" would erase that salary from the cap and any luxury-tax ramifications.

It's pretty unlikely David Stern will go for the rule -- it essentially blows a pretty major loophole in the salary cap -- but if you're a fan of a team handcuffed by a bad deal, it would be manna from heaven.

Take a look at the 10 worst teams in the league and you'll start to understand why a rule change may not be such a bad idea:

29. Magic -- Grant Hill is collecting $13.3 million this year for wearing a foot cast.
28. Cavs -- You think Jim Paxson wouldn't like to renege on that $13 million over five years he gave Ira Newble?
27. Clippers -- Donald Sterling finally opens the vault and Elton Brand promptly goes on the injured list with a broken foot
26. Hawks -- Alan Henderson is taking home $7.7 million this year.
25. Heat -- Eddie Jones and Brian Grant are making a combined $24.3 million this season. That's more than half of the Heat's $46 million payroll.
24. Bulls -- The Bulls finally got rid of Jalen Rose, but how many remember that they gave up Ron Artest and Brad Miller to get him in the first place?
23. Wizards -- From Kwame to Stackhouse to Laettner, none of it makes a lot of sense.
22. Knicks -- Where do we start? Houston, Van Horn, McDyess, Eisley, Weatherspoon, Ward, Anderson ...
21. Celtics -- Vin Baker is a nice story, but he ain't worth $13.5 million. Ditto for Raef LaFrentz.
20. Raptors -- Traded away two bad contracts and got one horrible contract back. How long before Rose is a thorn in Glen Grunwald's side?
19. Nets -- Between Mourning and Mutombo, Georgetown's going to have to rename its gym the Rod Thorn Arena.


Is Glen Grunwald through? News that the Raptors and Bulls finally agreed to a six-player swap on Saturday didn't come as a big surprise to anyone.
Other GMs around the league know when one of their one is trouble, and several GMs have been predicting for weeks that Grunwald was on the verge of doing something rash.

The trade of Antonio Davis, Jerome Williams and Chris Jefferies for Jalen Rose, Donyell Marshall and Lonny Baxter breaks just about every trade rule in the book.

GMs are never supposed to trade centers for swingmen, especially when the team doesn't have a big man to step in and fill the void. Yes, Davis is 34 and is slipping fast, but watching Megke Bateer lumber in the middle will have Raptors fans pining for the good old days when Davis used to pout in the paint and cast aspersions on the Canadian educational system.

Jalen Rose
Guard-Forward
Toronto Raptors
Profile


2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
16 13.3 4.0 3.5 .375 .765


Second, bad contracts are always bad. But at least Williams' terrible contract came with a caveat -- the fans absolutely loved him. No one wearing a big foam Raptors finger gave a damn what Williams made. Rose on the other hand ... I'm sure it was hard to find a fan in Chicago who shed a tear at the news Rose was heading to the frozen tundra. Everyone cared about what Jalen made (especially Jalen), and Grunwald is going to get sick of hearing about it for the next three seasons.

The Raptors did get better on paper. Rose and Marshall should give Vince Carter the scoring help he asked for. But there's a reason Jim Paxson is doing back flips in the United Center right now. Rose's and Marshall's stats look fine, but their contributions are often so shallow that the bad too often outweighs the good.

If Rose starts pouting about Canada or, even worse, if Carter starts complaining about his new teammates (remember he re-signed with the Raptors partly on the condition that they re-sign Davis and Williams), Grunwald will be looking for a new job by Christmas.


Are Jamal Crawford's days as a point guard over? Bulls GM John Paxson can talk all he wants about the veteran contributions he expects from Davis and Williams on the Bulls. For all of the hustle and toughness they'll give the team, they won't be able to replace the 22-plus points a night that Rose and Marshall delivered. Who will pick up the slack? The real winner, or loser (depending on how you look at it) in the trade was Jamal Crawford.
Jamal Crawford
Point Guard
Chicago Bulls
Profile


2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
14 14.5 2.6 5.1 .418 .871


Bulls sources claim Paxson has become increasingly convinced that Crawford's best position is at the two. Crawford has shown a knack for putting the ball in the basket, and Paxson's just not convinced he can get his teammates involved the way he thinks a point guard should. Obviously, the Bulls couldn't afford to put Crawford and Rose on the floor together -- they were just two much of a defensive liability. With Rose out, Crawford will likely be the Bulls' starting two guard with rookie Kirk Hinrich taking over at the point.

While Crawford will welcome the minutes (and the extra shots), don't expect him to be entirely happy about the move. He still feels strongly that his future in the league is at the point, and he won't relinquish it without a fight. Crawford will still get minutes at the point spelling Hinrich, but it appears his days as the Bulls' starting point guard are finally at end.


Joe Johnson vs. Penny Hardaway, Round 3: The longest position battle in the NBA keeps getting longer. Penny Hardaway will not die. For the past two seasons, Frank Johnson and Suns GM Bryan Colangelo have been ready to anoint Joe Johnson as heir to Penny's two-guard position. And, for the past two seasons, the Suns have continued to play better basketball when Hardaway, not Johnson, was on the floor.
Joe Johnson
Shooting Guard
Phoenix Suns
Profile


2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
15 12.5 5.1 3.8 .397 .792


So it comes as no surprise that after two stellar performances this weekend by Hardaway off the bench, the Penny-Johnson debate is beginning to rage again in Phoenix.

This time, however, Colangelo has the ammunition he needs to back Johnson. While plus/minus stats don't mean everything, the numbers do tend to indicate which player combinations do well when they're on the floor together.

Through their first 14 games, the Suns have outscored their opponents by 1.3 ppg when Johnson is in the game and have been outscored by 7.8 ppg when he's off the floor. The opposite holds true for Penny. The Suns are actually getting outscored by 2.2 ppg when Hardaway is on the floor and are outscoring their opponents by 1.3 ppg when he's on the bench.


The honeymoon's over for Flip: One week after we wrote that the Sonics' Ronald Murray was the only player in the league to have just one game under 20 points, Murray went and had three under 20 this week. To make matters worse, his poor play on the defensive end got him benched Saturday against the Rockets.
"Ronald needs to work harder on the defensive end of the floor," coach Nate McMillan said after the Sonics were blown out by the Jazz. "Defensively, he can play better than that. He needs to give us something defensively."

McMillan started Antonio Daniels, a defensive stopper, in his place.

Defense wasn't Murray's only problem this week. He averaged just 10.7 ppg on 28 percent shooting for the week.

"I'm missing some shots," Murray said. "That's nothing. I'm not worried about that. We've got to worry about the defense out there. It's not the offense; it's the defense out there."


News of the Weird If you predicted any of this before the start of the regular season, you're a witch.
The World Champion Spurs (9-8) wouldn't be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

The Nuggets (10-6) and Jazz (9-6) would have a better record than the Spurs, Timberwolves, Rockets, Blazers and Suns.

The Magic (0-9) would be the only team in the league winless at home.

Zach Randolph (11.2 rpg) would be out-rebounding Shaquille O'Neal, Jermaine O'Neal and all but four other players in the NBA.

The Spurs' Emanuel Ginobili (15.4 ppg, 5 rpg, 4.6 apg, 2 spg) would be averaging more points, rebounds and steals than Tony Parker (14.6 ppg, 3 rpg, 4.9 rpg, .8 spg) and nearly as many assists.

The Jazz's Andrei Kirilenko would rank in the top 20 in five different categories: field goal percentage (10th), steals (8th), offensive rebounds (16th), blocks (9th), free-throw percentage (11th). Just to highlight this guy's remarkable versatility, check out his stat line from the Jazz's win over the Sonics this week: 11 points (4-of-7 shooting), 12 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 steals, 4 blocks in 37 minutes.

 

[jbeecham]

Originally posted by sunsfn
Joe Johnson vs. Penny Hardaway, Round 3: The longest position battle in the NBA keeps getting longer. Penny Hardaway will not die. For the past two seasons, Frank Johnson and Suns GM Bryan Colangelo have been ready to anoint Joe Johnson as heir to Penny's two-guard position. And, for the past two seasons, the Suns have continued to play better basketball when Hardaway, not Johnson, was on the floor.

So it comes as no surprise that after two stellar performances this weekend by Hardaway off the bench, the Penny-Johnson debate is beginning to rage again in Phoenix.

This time, however, Colangelo has the ammunition he needs to back Johnson. While plus/minus stats don't mean everything, the numbers do tend to indicate which player combinations do well when they're on the floor together.

Through their first 14 games, the Suns have outscored their opponents by 1.3 ppg when Johnson is in the game and have been outscored by 7.8 ppg when he's off the floor. The opposite holds true for Penny. The Suns are actually getting outscored by 2.2 ppg when Hardaway is on the floor and are outscoring their opponents by 1.3 ppg when he's on the bench.

This is very interesting. Especially for everyone who says the Suns are a better team with Penny on the floor and not JJ.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Re: Re: Insider - Dec. 1st, Size does matter in the NBA

Originally posted by jbeecham
This is very interesting. Especially for everyone who says the Suns are a better team with Penny on the floor and not JJ.

Does this take into consideration that for the majority of the beginning of the season Penny was playing with mostly second unit guys - while JJ was playing with Steph, Amare and Marion? NO **** we're better when JJs out there - he's out there with THE STARTERS!

 

[scotsman13]

cheese this take into account that penny is playing averaging 20 minutes a game. this takes into account that he has played when zarko was red hot. this takes into account when he is the first man off the bench and was playing with marion, marbury, amare and one of our centers. this takes into account that that with penny on the floor the offense slows down and the defense falls through the floor.

 

[SirStefan32]

I am sorry guys, but I don't see how anybody can come to the conclusion that the Suns look better when JJ is on the floor and Penny on the bench.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Originally posted by scotsman13
cheese this take into account that penny is playing averaging 20 minutes a game. this takes into account that he has played when zarko was red hot. this takes into account when he is the first man off the bench and was playing with marion, marbury, amare and one of our centers. this takes into account that that with penny on the floor the offense slows down and the defense falls through the floor.

When Zarko was red hot? The kid has had two good games - both coming when he started getting major playing time and right before he got injured - tell me where Zarko was "red hot" at the beginning of the season? And if Penny's playing with Zarko -who is "red hot"- then how is he playing with Marion, Marbury, Amare and one of our centers - shouldn't we constantly be getting called for technicals for having 6 men on the court? Do I think Penny's great? Hell no - his D is pretty bad - as bad as Johnson's O - that's the problem - both guys are huge liabilities on the floor - it's not one or the other's fault - IT'S BOTH! And if you really are trying to contend that Penny was on the floor with most of our starters at the beginning of the season - you are on crack - why don't you go back and tell us about the end of the Suns v. Bulls game 6 game and demonstrate once again how you know nothing about this team.

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by scotsman13
cheese this take into account that penny is playing averaging 20 minutes a game. this takes into account that he has played when zarko was red hot. this takes into account when he is the first man off the bench and was playing with marion, marbury, amare and one of our centers. this takes into account that that with penny on the floor the offense slows down and the defense falls through the floor.

This is all speculation and generalization with no basis in reality!

 

[scotsman13]

lets see where to start?

both coming when he started getting major playing time and right before he got injured - tell me where Zarko was "red hot"

i would say that a player who came in and in least then 10 minutes scored 12 points to be red hot. when he did it from all over the floor. during that time the suns outscored the bulls during that time.


then how is he playing with Marion, Marbury, Amare and one of our centers

if penny is the first person off the bench then he would be playing with the above group. if penny is playing in the 4th quarter then he is most likely playing with the over group.

Do I think Penny's great? Hell no - his D is pretty bad - as bad as Johnson's O - that's the problem - both guys are huge liabilities on the floor.

the above stats show that for all of penny's skills on the offensive end that he is costing the team more being on the floor then jj. jj vs. not having jj on the floor there is a turn around of 9.1 points a game in scoring. now in the area of scoring jj is shooting .397 while penny is shooting .404. there isnt that much of a differance between their shooting. so all the myths that penny is from the past the numbers havent been holding for this year that he is that good. so with both of them having very close to the same offensive game and jj playing good defense it is easy to understand how these differances can take place.

And if you really are trying to contend that Penny was on the floor with most of our starters at the beginning of the season.

pennys minutes per game this season from the first to the latest game 15,16,21,14,27,16,25,29,20,16,16,16,12,17,18,22,20,27,26 and 31 for an average of 20 minutes a game. now marbury is averaging 40.9, marion is averaging 37 minutes a game and amare is averaging 32 minutes a game. now with only 48 minutes a game it is almost impossable that hardaway can not be out there with these guys. i am not saying that penny is on the floor most of the time with the starters but he is on the floor with the starters at times. what i am saying is that penny doesnt bring more to the table then jj as a matter of fact the numbers seem to say that even when penny is facing the bench of other teams he still isnt as productive as jj is vs. the starters for the other team.

 

[scotsman13]

Originally posted by Chaplin
This is all speculation and generalization with no basis in reality!

this isnt speculation and generalization with no basis in reality. this is cold hard truth.

Through their first 14 games, the Suns have outscored their opponents by 1.3 ppg when Johnson is in the game and have been outscored by 7.8 ppg when he's off the floor. The opposite holds true for Penny. The Suns are actually getting outscored by 2.2 ppg when Hardaway is on the floor and are outscoring their opponents by 1.3 ppg when he's on the bench.

i didnt make this up. i didnt pay espn to post this and i sure as heck dont work for the suns, nba or espn. chaplin if after having watched penny i really believed that he was good for the team i wouldnt be making an issue of this. and in truth you can keep bashing me for stating what i believe and having something to back it up with or you can start giving me a little credit for seeing something that had been missed on this board. whatever you want is fine with me because i am here to talk basketball just dont expect me to attack anyone personally that is not a player, coach, or management member of the suns team and dont be scared to post that you think i am wrong on an issue and do be hurt if i state that i believe you are wrong. we can all have differant views on the game and what we see and what we believe that needs to happen to make this team more successful.

 

[George O'Brien]

Starters and Backups

JJ has some games when he looks like a dominant offensive player and others when he looks like someone who should not be allowed to hold the ball. Penny's offensive game is more consisten, but his highs aren't ast high.

The wild card is that Penny can play the point. I like him at point with Marbury at #2, which is not likely if Penny starts.

I doubt that Penny will ever become a great defender, but JJ is inconsistent. When he is not hitting his outside shots, he loses overall energy.

 

[scotsman13]

george i am not asking penny to be a great defender, i am asking that he does defend. against golden state i watched 2 cases where penny stood right next to jrich as he when up for a dunk or a layup. anyone that placed defense would have reached over and grabed him but penny didnt.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Scots i am with you.

Penny can't defend anything. Plain and simple. He is a great team defender, and can play the passing lanes better than almost everyone on our team. However his man will always beat him.



Even with JJ shooting so horribly, the opponents still have to come at him when he is driving to the hoop. That opens up a lot for the other guys. That is the main difference in his offensive game from last year IMO. With him being more aggressive, he is forcing the defense to pay attention to him.

Last year they would double off him because he wouldn't shoot an open shot, and wouldnt take it into an open lane.

Even if he misses 65% of his shots, the defense will not want to give him open opportunities.




Penny does in fact spend a good amount of time with the starters. Since the new rotation, he comes in at the 6min mark in the first quarter. Amare usually plays the entire first, as does Marion. Marbury sits down with a minute to go or so. In the 4th quarter Penny is usually out there with the starters.

 

[SweetD]

Originally posted by scotsman13
george i am not asking penny to be a great defender, i am asking that he does defend. against golden state i watched 2 cases where penny stood right next to jrich as he when up for a dunk or a layup. anyone that placed defense would have reached over and grabed him but penny didnt.

Penny is not a great defender by any means, but Frank has eveyone on the team running around playing a trapping D and some time the wrong player is left wide open time and time again. It may not be Penny's falt becouse the person that was need to move over and cover JRich didn't I say that way to many time this year.

 

[hoopdeedofor2]

Answer

When Z comes back just start him at the 3 and have the Matrix at the 2. Trade the other 2 garbage gaurds for someone that can hit a wide open shot. Like one of the barry boys. Or someone that can shoot the 3. That's is the only shot that the 2 can take because the other starters can't share.

Ok, Penny and JJ are not really garbage I am just frustrated just like all of you. We need a true shooter not a ball handler we have enough of those.

 

[scotsman13]

moving marion to the 2 would be one of the worst things you could do. one of the biggest advanage that shawn has over other small forward is his ability to rebound. by moving him to the 2 your move him out and away from the basket and the rebounds that you want him to get. shawn has a good med range jump shoot but the farther out that he goes the worst that he gets. i would say that marion could play the spot well but you would lose a lot by putting him there.

 

[Errntknght]

scotsman, "against golden state i watched 2 cases where penny stood right next to jrich as he when up for a dunk or a layup."

So say you, but two of us who watched the recorded game looking for these two occurences didn't see them but we did see Richardson beating JJ. This doesn't make JJ a rotten defender - Richardson was having a great game and few guys around the league would have handcuffed him.

"anyone that placed defense would have reached over and grabed him but penny didnt."

Sheesh here I've been thinking all this time that you meant Penny missed defensive assignments. Grabbing a guy about to shoot is not playing defense and its often not a good idea because you may well give him a three point play. The defender has to decide if he has a good chance to interfere with the shot and if he doesn't then it's better not to foul. With this being the real substance of your belief that Penny is the worst defender in the NBA, I'm sorry I bothered to respond before. And as for the plus/minus stats you've offered, count how many guys in the NBA have worse plus/minus stats. If there are zero then I guess that would be some kind of a basis for your belief.

 

[George O'Brien]

I don't like Shawn at #2. He is not a great ball handler. If anything, I think we will see him play more at the #4 slot with Amare at #5 and Zarko at #3.

 

[scotsman13]

oh errntknight maybe i have misunderstood what team defense is about. first you try to force your man to a spot where they arent used to shooting from and if you are beat, a team mate comes over to help. but these are the ideas that my coach gave me. maybe your coach didnt think that helping out is important, if so your must not have been on a very good defensive team.

two of the biggest rules in defense are stop the ball. and never give up layins. it doesnt matter if it is your man or someone elses you do those things.

 

[George O'Brien]

Back to original article:

1. Lakers -- Shaquille O'Neal, Karl Malone
2. Pacers -- Jermaine O'Neal
3. Kings -- Brad Miller, Vlade Divac, and Chris Webber
4. Mavericks -- Dirk Nowitzki
5. Pistons -- Ben Wallace
6. Hornets -- P.J. Brown and Jamaal Magloire
7. Spurs -- Tim Duncan, Rasho Nesterovic
8. Rockets -- Yao Ming
9. T-Wolves -- Kevin Garnett, Michael Olowokandi
10. Nuggets -- Marcus Camby, Nene

I'm not sure I entirely buy his analysis. Nowitzki is tall, but not really a "big man" in the traditional sense of the term. I am not convinced that Olowokandi is terribly good (I'd take Foster of the Pacers over him) and Nesterovic would not get his numbers on a team without Garnett or Duncan. Camby is only 6'9" and was not considered to be much of big man when he was with the Knicks.

There aren't that many "great" big men. Shaq, Malone, Jermaine, Duncan, and Garnett were able to carry their teams on their own. The other guys are talented, but not at the same level.

I am convinced that Stoudemire will get to the elite level in the next couple of years, but he is no where near to being a dominating player yet. Watching guys like Jermaine or Duncan is a revelation in that they are tall and very very talented.

 

[Joe Mama]

Yes, but all of those players (Nesterovic, Kandi, and others) are better centers than anyone on the Phoenix Suns roster. I think you are wrong about Marcus Camby also. I think it is closer to 7'0" than is to 6'9". He's also got a 10'0" wingspan.

Amare Stoudemire is good, but he's got a ways to go. I do think he can get there quickly however. I've been frustrated by him lately because he doesn't seem to know when he should post someone up or face them. Last night against Jermaine O'Neal he kept trying to post up, but that was a mistake. He should have faced him and taken his nice little jump shot until O'Neal came out more. Of course there still is no guarantee he would get by O'Neal, but it would have been better than trying to post him up.

Joe Mama

 

[George O'Brien]

I would love to have Camby or Nesterovic, but that was not my point. These guys are talented, but not dominate players nor ever likely to be. I am really skeptical that Kandi will ever be more than the Benoit Benjamin of his generation.

The Suns have three backup centers. None are shot blockers and each have major limitations. I would love to get a long shot blocker (not named Trybanski) who can alter shots in the paint and give low post opponents something to worry about.

By the way, Camby will be a free agent after 04-05 and makes $7.25 million this year.