NBA Draft: Seniors running on empty
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Friday, November 21
The college basketball season is finally under way ... have you seen your collegiate senior lately? NBA scouts are looking, but so far the search is coming up pretty empty.
"It's going to be ugly this year," one veteran NBA scout begins. "Nothing," another chimes in. "I don't think I'm going out on a limb here when I say that this may be the worst senior class in the history of the NBA draft," a prominent GM said.
Here we go again.
In a perfect world, college seniors all would be driving Pintos, scrounging for lunch money in the cushions of their dorm-room sofas and strutting around campus, ready to lead their teams to the coveted Big Dance. A few months from now, they'd stroll across a podium somewhere, grab a diploma and begin preparing for the 2004 NBA draft.
Imagine if Zach Randolph, the Trail Blazers' leading scorer, had stayed in school four years?
In the real world, the talented high school class of 2000 has all but defected to the NBA. Can you imagine a draft that had Zach Randolph, Caron Butler, Dwyane Wade, Jared Jeffries, Chris Wilcox, Eddie Griffin, Darius Miles, DeShawn Stevenson, Rodney White, Chris Kaman, Qyntel Woods, Michael Sweetney, Jarvis Hayes and Luke Ridnour playing the roles of savvy four-year veterans?
Since Kevin Garnett broke the college barrier in 1995 and declared for the NBA draft directly from high school, the number of college seniors in the first round has dwindled at an alarming rate. In 1995, there were 20 seniors taken in the first round, six in the lottery. In 1998, the number dipped to 14 seniors, with five in the lottery. In 1999, the number slipped again: 13 seniors first-round seniors, only four in the lottery. The 2000 draft saw an even lower low -- 11 taken in the first round, just three in the lottery. In 2002, only one senior, Melvin Ely, made it into the lottery out of eight first-round seniors.
Last season nine seniors were taken in the first round, three in the lottery.
While some try to claim that college seniors are losing in what is becoming an increasingly brutal war of expectations and fortune-telling, something more simple and more insidious appears to be taking place.
"The NBA has been strip-mining the college game for years," one scout said. "It's finally coming back to haunt us. The only guys worth taking in the lottery any more are the young ones. The older players that are left usually don't have enough talent to contribute in a meaningful way. Experience is a great, but if you're not going to be able to come in and average 18 a night, then I'm going with the kid who could turn into Kobe or KG down the road."
He's got a point. Only one college senior drafted in the first round this summer, Kirk Hinrich, ranks in the top 10 among rookies in scoring or assists. Keith Bogans, drafted in the second round, is the only 2003 senior in the top 10 in rebounds.
The categories are dominated by a high school senior, LeBron James, and two college freshmen, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh. And this year was actually considered a good draft for college seniors.
This season, several top NBA scouts and personnel directors could identify only one college senior -- Missouri's Rickey Paulding -- with a shot of being drafted in this year's lottery.
Here's a quick look at 10 seniors the scouts will be watching this season.
Rickey Paulding, SG, Missouri
Rickey Paulding can take it to the rack, but his outside shot is a question mark.
The facts: 6-foot-5, 200 pounds; 17.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg on 45 percent shooting
The skinny: Scouts are still buzzing about Paulding's last performance, a 37-point outburst vs. Marquette in the NCAA Tournament. Paulding hit nine 3-pointers in that game and generally outplayed Dwyane Wade, who went No. 5 in this year's draft. Paulding has NBA athleticism and is an above average rebounder for his position. He's very effective when he takes the ball to the basket, but he spends too much time on the perimeter. His problem in the past has been a streaky outside jumper. He improved on that last year, upping his 3-point percentage to just under 40 percent. If he can take it up another few notches, take eight free throws a game (he shoots 80 percent from the line) and lead MU deep into the tournament, he's got a shot at sneaking into the lottery.
Jameer Nelson, PG, St. Joseph's
The facts: 6-0, 190; 19.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.7 apg on 44 percent shooting
The skinny: Nelson's ability to get to the basket and finish in traffic is extraordinary. He's got the speed, lateral quickness and strength to play in the league. He's a good athlete, a great leaper and has the court vision and handle to play point in the league. He impressed a lot of scouts at the Chicago pre-draft camp last season. However, he couldn't get a first-round guarantee, so he returned to school. What's not to like? His perimeter shot is just OK, and his measurements in Chicago put him under six feet without shoes. Said one scout, "If he was 6-2 or 6-3, he'd be in the lottery." As it stands now, Nelson is still fighting to get into the first round.
Marcus Moore, PG, Washington State
The facts: 6-6, 210; 18.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 4.7 apg on 35 percent shooting
The skinny: Moore has the size teams love in a point guard, but does he have the head? Last season Moore played through injuries and put on an inconsistent performance. When he's on, he can score on just about anyone. But what scouts wanted to see at the Chicago pre-draft camp last spring was whether Moore can run the point full time. The results were inconclusive after a lackluster performance, and Moore went back to school. If new head coach Dick Bennett can turn him into a full-time point, he's got the potential to be a mid-first round pick.
Darius Rice, SF, Miami
The facts: 6-10, 222; 18.8 pg, 5.8 rpg on 43 percent shooting
The skinny: Rice may be the best 6-10 shooter in the country. His uncle is Jerry, not Glen, but you'd never know it from his skinny frame. Rice weighs just 220 pounds. He was dominant at times last year. He dropped 43 on UConn and 32 on Florida and Virginia Tech, but scouts still can't understand why Rice hasn't developed any inside game. "If he got stronger and mixed it up a little inside, people would be going crazy for him," one scout said. "But right now, he's still too one dimensional." In Rice's defense, an international scout who saw him play saw something different. "In Europe this kid would be a star," the scout said. "He'd be a lottery pick if he was playing in Serbia or something. With the NBA adopting zones, Rice seems like the perfect player. He can shoot over anyone and he has NBA athleticism. I don't get the problem."
Romain Sato, SG, Xavier
The facts: 6-5, 205; 18.1 ppg, 7.1 rpg on 41 percent shooting
The skinny: Sato is a big-time NBA athlete who does a little bit of everything well. He runs the floor, can take his man off the dribble, is a fantastic rebounder for his size and is a pretty good perimeter shooter, to boot. He also is an above average defender. His 38-inch vertical wows scouts. He's a little undersized at the two, and some teams believe his shot selection needs a lot of work. But at least one scout believes he could be a Quentin Richardson type player in the league as he matures and understands the game better.
Arthur Johnson, PF, Missouri
The facts: 6-9, 268; 16 ppg, 9.5 rpg on 49 percent shooting
The skinny: Johnson reminds some scouts of a poor-man's Elton Brand. He uses his long wing span and big frame to create a lot of high percentage shots around the basket. He has the ability to be a good rebounder, shot blocker and even scorer in the league. However, his lack of size (scouts think he's closer to 6-7 or 6-8), athleticism, perimeter game and conditioning probably push him into the late first or second round in the draft.
Chris Duhon, PG, Duke
The facts: 6-1, 190; 9.2 ppg, 6.5 apg on 38 percent shooting
The skinny: Remember when Duhon was considered a lottery pick by NBA scouts? A disastrous junior season pushed him from the lottery all the way to the second round last season. Can Duhon rebound? He's considered one of the better "pure" point guards in the draft, but he seemed to lose his confidence last season with Jay Williams off the team. Some scouts believe he just tried to do too much. Scouts still contend that he has the athleticism, intelligence and court vision to be a good pro, but he's going to have to have one hell of a year to get back into the first round.
Rafael Araujo, C, BYU
The facts: 6-11, 265; 12 ppg, 8.9 rpg on 56 percent shooting
The skinny: The Brazilian big man will get a long, hard look from scouts this season. Araujo, who is considered one of the best players in Brazil, really came on late last season dropping 31 points and nine boards on Air Force and 22 points and 15 boards at UNLV. But a disastrous performance against Emeka Okafor in the tournament set him back a bit. This year the Cougars will make Araujo the centerpiece of their offense. It's conceivable he could average 20 and 10. If he does, he'll get a long look in the first round despite his lack of athleticism or quickness.
Herve Lamizana, F, Rutgers
The facts: 6-10, 215; 10.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg on 43 percent shooting
The skinny: Lamizana is a sleeper who several scouts believe could be on the verge of a breakout season. A native of the Ivory Coast, Lamizana has that lethal combination of athleticism, shooting prowess and an excellent handle for someone his size. His only problem has been assertiveness. Lamizana is the type of player that won't take over a game, even though he's capable. If he steps up this year, he could easily sneak into the first round based on his skills. If he's content to step back and be a role player again next year, teams will shy away from him.
Chris Garnett, C, Indiana Southeast (NAIA)
The facts: 6-11, 275; 16.9 ppg, 7.9 rpg on 64 percent shooting
The skinny: Garnett makes this list on the imploring of a couple of trusted scouts, including one who has followed his career since high school. Garnett showed up on the national radar after he went to the Nike camp this year as a counselor and held his own against Emeka Okafor in some scrimmages there. Garnett has an NBA body and good athleticism for a big man. However, his lack of consistent effort, his conditioning and the general lack of competition in the NAIA make him suspect. He's going to have to have a great year, then follow it up with some strong play in Chicago and in individual workouts to get a shot. NBA scouts love big guys with bodies like his, but if he's not going to play hard, what's the point?
The best of the rest: Pape Sow, F, Cal State Fullerton; Andre Emmett, G, Texas Tech; Bernard Robinson, G, Michigan; James Thomas, F, Texas; Brandon Mouton, G, Texas; Luis Flores, G, Manhattan; Jason Parker, G, Tulsa; Michael Morandais, G, Colorado; Luke Jackson, F, Oregon.
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Friday, November 21
The college basketball season is finally under way ... have you seen your collegiate senior lately? NBA scouts are looking, but so far the search is coming up pretty empty.
"It's going to be ugly this year," one veteran NBA scout begins. "Nothing," another chimes in. "I don't think I'm going out on a limb here when I say that this may be the worst senior class in the history of the NBA draft," a prominent GM said.
Here we go again.
In a perfect world, college seniors all would be driving Pintos, scrounging for lunch money in the cushions of their dorm-room sofas and strutting around campus, ready to lead their teams to the coveted Big Dance. A few months from now, they'd stroll across a podium somewhere, grab a diploma and begin preparing for the 2004 NBA draft.
Imagine if Zach Randolph, the Trail Blazers' leading scorer, had stayed in school four years?
In the real world, the talented high school class of 2000 has all but defected to the NBA. Can you imagine a draft that had Zach Randolph, Caron Butler, Dwyane Wade, Jared Jeffries, Chris Wilcox, Eddie Griffin, Darius Miles, DeShawn Stevenson, Rodney White, Chris Kaman, Qyntel Woods, Michael Sweetney, Jarvis Hayes and Luke Ridnour playing the roles of savvy four-year veterans?
Since Kevin Garnett broke the college barrier in 1995 and declared for the NBA draft directly from high school, the number of college seniors in the first round has dwindled at an alarming rate. In 1995, there were 20 seniors taken in the first round, six in the lottery. In 1998, the number dipped to 14 seniors, with five in the lottery. In 1999, the number slipped again: 13 seniors first-round seniors, only four in the lottery. The 2000 draft saw an even lower low -- 11 taken in the first round, just three in the lottery. In 2002, only one senior, Melvin Ely, made it into the lottery out of eight first-round seniors.
Last season nine seniors were taken in the first round, three in the lottery.
While some try to claim that college seniors are losing in what is becoming an increasingly brutal war of expectations and fortune-telling, something more simple and more insidious appears to be taking place.
"The NBA has been strip-mining the college game for years," one scout said. "It's finally coming back to haunt us. The only guys worth taking in the lottery any more are the young ones. The older players that are left usually don't have enough talent to contribute in a meaningful way. Experience is a great, but if you're not going to be able to come in and average 18 a night, then I'm going with the kid who could turn into Kobe or KG down the road."
He's got a point. Only one college senior drafted in the first round this summer, Kirk Hinrich, ranks in the top 10 among rookies in scoring or assists. Keith Bogans, drafted in the second round, is the only 2003 senior in the top 10 in rebounds.
The categories are dominated by a high school senior, LeBron James, and two college freshmen, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh. And this year was actually considered a good draft for college seniors.
This season, several top NBA scouts and personnel directors could identify only one college senior -- Missouri's Rickey Paulding -- with a shot of being drafted in this year's lottery.
Here's a quick look at 10 seniors the scouts will be watching this season.
Rickey Paulding, SG, Missouri
Rickey Paulding can take it to the rack, but his outside shot is a question mark.
The facts: 6-foot-5, 200 pounds; 17.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg on 45 percent shooting
The skinny: Scouts are still buzzing about Paulding's last performance, a 37-point outburst vs. Marquette in the NCAA Tournament. Paulding hit nine 3-pointers in that game and generally outplayed Dwyane Wade, who went No. 5 in this year's draft. Paulding has NBA athleticism and is an above average rebounder for his position. He's very effective when he takes the ball to the basket, but he spends too much time on the perimeter. His problem in the past has been a streaky outside jumper. He improved on that last year, upping his 3-point percentage to just under 40 percent. If he can take it up another few notches, take eight free throws a game (he shoots 80 percent from the line) and lead MU deep into the tournament, he's got a shot at sneaking into the lottery.
Jameer Nelson, PG, St. Joseph's
The facts: 6-0, 190; 19.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.7 apg on 44 percent shooting
The skinny: Nelson's ability to get to the basket and finish in traffic is extraordinary. He's got the speed, lateral quickness and strength to play in the league. He's a good athlete, a great leaper and has the court vision and handle to play point in the league. He impressed a lot of scouts at the Chicago pre-draft camp last season. However, he couldn't get a first-round guarantee, so he returned to school. What's not to like? His perimeter shot is just OK, and his measurements in Chicago put him under six feet without shoes. Said one scout, "If he was 6-2 or 6-3, he'd be in the lottery." As it stands now, Nelson is still fighting to get into the first round.
Marcus Moore, PG, Washington State
The facts: 6-6, 210; 18.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 4.7 apg on 35 percent shooting
The skinny: Moore has the size teams love in a point guard, but does he have the head? Last season Moore played through injuries and put on an inconsistent performance. When he's on, he can score on just about anyone. But what scouts wanted to see at the Chicago pre-draft camp last spring was whether Moore can run the point full time. The results were inconclusive after a lackluster performance, and Moore went back to school. If new head coach Dick Bennett can turn him into a full-time point, he's got the potential to be a mid-first round pick.
Darius Rice, SF, Miami
The facts: 6-10, 222; 18.8 pg, 5.8 rpg on 43 percent shooting
The skinny: Rice may be the best 6-10 shooter in the country. His uncle is Jerry, not Glen, but you'd never know it from his skinny frame. Rice weighs just 220 pounds. He was dominant at times last year. He dropped 43 on UConn and 32 on Florida and Virginia Tech, but scouts still can't understand why Rice hasn't developed any inside game. "If he got stronger and mixed it up a little inside, people would be going crazy for him," one scout said. "But right now, he's still too one dimensional." In Rice's defense, an international scout who saw him play saw something different. "In Europe this kid would be a star," the scout said. "He'd be a lottery pick if he was playing in Serbia or something. With the NBA adopting zones, Rice seems like the perfect player. He can shoot over anyone and he has NBA athleticism. I don't get the problem."
Romain Sato, SG, Xavier
The facts: 6-5, 205; 18.1 ppg, 7.1 rpg on 41 percent shooting
The skinny: Sato is a big-time NBA athlete who does a little bit of everything well. He runs the floor, can take his man off the dribble, is a fantastic rebounder for his size and is a pretty good perimeter shooter, to boot. He also is an above average defender. His 38-inch vertical wows scouts. He's a little undersized at the two, and some teams believe his shot selection needs a lot of work. But at least one scout believes he could be a Quentin Richardson type player in the league as he matures and understands the game better.
Arthur Johnson, PF, Missouri
The facts: 6-9, 268; 16 ppg, 9.5 rpg on 49 percent shooting
The skinny: Johnson reminds some scouts of a poor-man's Elton Brand. He uses his long wing span and big frame to create a lot of high percentage shots around the basket. He has the ability to be a good rebounder, shot blocker and even scorer in the league. However, his lack of size (scouts think he's closer to 6-7 or 6-8), athleticism, perimeter game and conditioning probably push him into the late first or second round in the draft.
Chris Duhon, PG, Duke
The facts: 6-1, 190; 9.2 ppg, 6.5 apg on 38 percent shooting
The skinny: Remember when Duhon was considered a lottery pick by NBA scouts? A disastrous junior season pushed him from the lottery all the way to the second round last season. Can Duhon rebound? He's considered one of the better "pure" point guards in the draft, but he seemed to lose his confidence last season with Jay Williams off the team. Some scouts believe he just tried to do too much. Scouts still contend that he has the athleticism, intelligence and court vision to be a good pro, but he's going to have to have one hell of a year to get back into the first round.
Rafael Araujo, C, BYU
The facts: 6-11, 265; 12 ppg, 8.9 rpg on 56 percent shooting
The skinny: The Brazilian big man will get a long, hard look from scouts this season. Araujo, who is considered one of the best players in Brazil, really came on late last season dropping 31 points and nine boards on Air Force and 22 points and 15 boards at UNLV. But a disastrous performance against Emeka Okafor in the tournament set him back a bit. This year the Cougars will make Araujo the centerpiece of their offense. It's conceivable he could average 20 and 10. If he does, he'll get a long look in the first round despite his lack of athleticism or quickness.
Herve Lamizana, F, Rutgers
The facts: 6-10, 215; 10.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg on 43 percent shooting
The skinny: Lamizana is a sleeper who several scouts believe could be on the verge of a breakout season. A native of the Ivory Coast, Lamizana has that lethal combination of athleticism, shooting prowess and an excellent handle for someone his size. His only problem has been assertiveness. Lamizana is the type of player that won't take over a game, even though he's capable. If he steps up this year, he could easily sneak into the first round based on his skills. If he's content to step back and be a role player again next year, teams will shy away from him.
Chris Garnett, C, Indiana Southeast (NAIA)
The facts: 6-11, 275; 16.9 ppg, 7.9 rpg on 64 percent shooting
The skinny: Garnett makes this list on the imploring of a couple of trusted scouts, including one who has followed his career since high school. Garnett showed up on the national radar after he went to the Nike camp this year as a counselor and held his own against Emeka Okafor in some scrimmages there. Garnett has an NBA body and good athleticism for a big man. However, his lack of consistent effort, his conditioning and the general lack of competition in the NAIA make him suspect. He's going to have to have a great year, then follow it up with some strong play in Chicago and in individual workouts to get a shot. NBA scouts love big guys with bodies like his, but if he's not going to play hard, what's the point?
The best of the rest: Pape Sow, F, Cal State Fullerton; Andre Emmett, G, Texas Tech; Bernard Robinson, G, Michigan; James Thomas, F, Texas; Brandon Mouton, G, Texas; Luis Flores, G, Manhattan; Jason Parker, G, Tulsa; Michael Morandais, G, Colorado; Luke Jackson, F, Oregon.
