Interesting Article: 10 guys better than their draft position

BACH

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Found this on cbs.sportsline.com. Pretty interesting article on players that are better players than their work-out numbers indicate.

Wonder if we pick up one of these guys. Seems like "Mac-type" players..

Notebook: QB Simms leads the Better-Than top 10

The worst thing a scout can do is not stand by his convictions, backing down to the powers that make the drafting decisions.

By this we mean a scout's strong opinion on a player suddenly weakens when the general manager or coach doesn't have the same opinion. It leads to second-guessing by the scout, wondering if he saw something the wrong way. They can sometimes talk themselves out of their own original analysis.

In the end, scouts can change their opinions just to get with the program, which ultimately can hurt the team in the long run.

"If you don't stand up for what you believe in, then you are not doing your job," one AFC scout said. "Of course, it happens all the time where a coach will say he doesn't see the same thing a scout does, and that scout will back down. The scout should not say he's right and they're wrong, but he should stand up for what he believes."

So, that's what I'm about to do.

There are a number of players in this year's NFL Draft that will be better players than what the scouts and personnel people are now saying. They might not be drafted in the first round, although some named here will be, but they will end up being good, serviceable NFL players. Some will even become stars.

They're our Better-Than Players. We've come up with 10 players that fit in this category.

The flip side is there is also a group of Worse-Than Players, those players the scouts and personnel people think more highly of than what their rating should be. We'll feature those players in this NFL Insider notebook next week.

Topping the Better-Than list is Texas quarterback Chris Simms. The son of former New York Giants quarterback Phil Simms has all the tools to be a successful NFL passer. He is big, has a strong arm and understands what it takes to succeed in the league, having grown up watching it.

Simms has his critics, though. They say he didn't play well in the big games. They say his motion is too long ... he has to step into his throws ... he didn't handle the blitz well.

"I was always comfortable with my career there," Simms said. "I felt like I played good, and we won a lot of big games. I know everyone likes to focus on the Oklahoma game, but I felt like I played well.

“It seems to get lost that I did lead the Big 12 in passing the last three years. That always seems to get lost in the shuffle. At the same time, it doesn't bother me, because I'm confident in who I am and my ability as a player."

All of the criticism has shreds of truth in it, but that can be coached out of him. Simms did not get the best coaching at Texas, according to some scouts. If he gets with the right quarterbacks coach, in the right system, Simms will be a Pro Bowl passer.

He might not go in the first round, but he won't fall past the second. This is a strong quarterback class, led by Southern California's Carson Palmer and Marshall's Byron Leftwich. Simms should be ranked right behind those two, or perhaps even with Leftwich. There is no way he or Florida's Rex Grossman should be ranked behind Cal's Kyle Boller, who has become the workout wonder in the past three months.

Simms has an arm every bit as strong as Palmer's, and he's just as big. He might not be as mobile, but he can move well enough. Some scouts say he needs to mature, but who doesn't in this draft?

In five years, Simms will make those who passed him in the first round pay in a big way.

"Don't shy away from that if that's what you believe," the AFC scout said. "I don't want to see you wavering."

No, that's left to the professional scouts.

Now for the other nine Better-Than players:

2. Victor Hobson, LB, Michigan: He doesn't run as well as scouts would like, but the guy made a ton of plays in college. He'll continue to make them when he gets to the NFL. He is a tough football player.
3. Tony Gilbert, LB, Georgia: Boss Bailey got all the attention at Georgia, but Gilbert made more plays. Bailey will go in the first round because he has all the attributes, while Gilbert is small by scouts' standards and doesn't run that well. But watch him become a starter in his second year.
4. Todd Johnson, S, Florida: Another guy who shows up on the tapes. He is a smart player who will hit you. He doesn't have great coverage skills, but they are good enough. He will start for somebody down the road.
5. Anthony Adams, DT, Penn State: Undersized at 6-feet tall, he was overshadowed playing next to Jimmy Kennedy, who will be a high first-round pick. But Adams showed up a bunch on tape, and plays with more intensity than Kennedy.
6. Brett Williams, T, Florida State: He was pegged as a first-round pick heading into his senior season, but for some reason he has dropped down the board. That shouldn't happen. He will be a 10-year starter in the league at left tackle.
7. Cie Grant, LB, Ohio State: He was moved to weakside linebacker from safety and had a big year for the national champions. At 225 pounds, he is undersized by many team's standards, but for a team looking for a run-and-chase linebacker, he is the perfect choice.
8. Onterrio Smith, RB, Oregon: Of all the backs in this draft, he has the best big-play speed. The knock is he is short at 5-foot-10 and he has had some off-field troubles. Injuries slowed him last year, too. He will be a 1,200-yard back.
9. Clint Mitchell, DE, Florida: Another player that has had off-field problems, but seems to have moved past them. When on the field for the Gators, he was a solid pass-rushing end during his career. If he dedicates himself, he could be a Grant Wistrom-type player.
10. Bobby Wade, WR, Arizona: He is not big, not fast, but he is plenty quick and has the attitude teams like from their slot receivers. Wade would be perfect in the Rams' offense, playing the role Az-Zahir Hakim once filled. We love this kid.

Others who got consideration: Jimmy Wilkerson, DE, Oklahoma; Shane Walton, S, Notre Dame; Donny Nickey, S, Ohio State; Kevin Curtis, WR, Utah State; Julian Battle, S, Tennessee. Matt Walters, DT, Miami.
 

SECTION 11

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Onterrio Smith is definately interesting.
If he were healthy all through last season he'd be up there with any of the backs this year.

Makes you wonder if he made the right choice when he decided to bolt after his junior year. It seems like the prospect of missing out on the NFL altogether spooked him a little, or something along those lines. A healthy senior season and he'd be potentially top 10 material.
 

Pariah

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...understands what it takes to succeed in the league, having grown up watching it.

By this reasoning most of us know what it takes to succeed in the league. I think I'll apply for a QB coaching position in the NFL...
 

SECTION 11

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I still think Simms is overrated, even in the second round.

Anyone who gets a "Chrissy Simms Suck-O-Meter" in his home stadium is suspect.
 

CardinalChris

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Scouts say what a horrible running back draft this is, but I think Ontarrio Smith, Suggs and Fargas andChris Brown make a solid group of second round guys who can flat out play.
 

Krangodnzr

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Originally posted by CardinalChris
Scouts say what a horrible running back draft this is, but I think Ontarrio Smith, Suggs and Fargas andChris Brown make a solid group of second round guys who can flat out play.

Your forgeting a guy I like more than any of those backs, Musa Smith from Georgia. Good size, good speed, and comes from a school that puts out great backs every three to four years.
 

jw7

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Originally posted by SECTION 11
I still think Simms is overrated, even in the second round.

Anyone who gets a "Chrissy Simms Suck-O-Meter" in his home stadium is suspect.

I agree. With the talent that he had around him, he should have had heisman numbers.
 

Stout

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You know what? I'm tired of the lack of respect. I may be a PSU Homer, but Larry Johnson is better than all of those backs listed. Period. He'll be picked before them too. I love the crap people spew when they talk about the top running backs in this draft and fail to mention the BEST one of the group. I'm not saying he'll play the best of them all in the NFL (which he very well may do), but he played the BEST in college this year. BY FAR, people! Good God almighty!
 

Dan H

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Originally posted by Stout
You know what? I'm tired of the lack of respect. I may be a PSU Homer, but Larry Johnson is better than all of those backs listed. Period. He'll be picked before them too. I love the crap people spew when they talk about the top running backs in this draft and fail to mention the BEST one of the group. I'm not saying he'll play the best of them all in the NFL (which he very well may do), but he played the BEST in college this year. BY FAR, people! Good God almighty!

Two words: Curtis Enis.
 
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BACH

BACH

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Originally posted by Stout
You know what? I'm tired of the lack of respect. I may be a PSU Homer, but Larry Johnson is better than all of those backs listed. Period. He'll be picked before them too. I love the crap people spew when they talk about the top running backs in this draft and fail to mention the BEST one of the group. I'm not saying he'll play the best of them all in the NFL (which he very well may do), but he played the BEST in college this year. BY FAR, people! Good God almighty!

And two more...well, it's actually three - Ki-jana Carter
 

JeffGollin

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Regarding Larry Johnson At issue wasn't who was the best RB, but who was underrated.

A few RB observations -

1. The guy who impressed me most this year was Chris Brown (Actually at least one draft-guru considers Brown overrated. Maybe so - I'm just basing my assessment on the old eyeballs).

2. Kiper now lists Onterrio Smith #2 RB right behind Johnson (so how overrated can that be?)

3. Another RB who impressed me (before the dazzling workout numbers) was Fargas - who may be getting short shrift because the numbers were so impression as to earn the label of "workout warrior.").

From a Cardinals standpoint - I tend to get tunnel vision. I don't even want to consider any RB who weighs less than 215.

Finally (just wondering) - What about Ron Dayne? Does he really suck? Or was he misused in NY? He will probably be "in the environment" effective June 1.
 

Stout

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Okay, smart azzes...two more words...Franco Harris. Daaaaaaaamn, didn't expect that one, did you?

Face it. Comparing those running backs to Larry Johnson is less than stupid. He's not the same player, it's not the same team. It's not the same year. Heck, it's not even the same decade. Or millenium. Deal with it. Larry Johnson's good, and no matter how many people have fun poking jokes at old PSU running backs, it doesn't change the fact. How many QBs succeeded at a high level in the NFL out of Louisville? Only think of one? Guess that makes Johnny U look pretty bad, huh?

So now, you can keep making your two and three liner jokes. I'll continue to talk real football. Thank you, Jeff, for actually posting real thoughts. I believe LJ is better than Brown, but then, I've never seen Brown play myself.
 

Krangodnzr

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Stout: Man what crawled up your ass?

Seriously, Personally I'm not a big Johnson fan myself. I see a guy that had a great year, yeah, but was considered a major college bust up until this year, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence in anyone.

Runningbacks are actually really hard to judge because instincts are so important at the NFL level, and instincts are hard to gauge. Thomas Jones looked like he had good instincts but not superb instincts at the college level, but when he got to the pros his instincts looked really subpar. Whos to say that Johnson won't have the same problem?

And the whole PSU tradition (for the past ten years) of having first round busts at runningback, that is a fact. Until someone like Johnson comes along and breaks the trend, everyone will have the right to believe it. Just like some people believe that every Florida QB will suck, or that Florida receivers suck, or Texas A&M running backs suck.

I personally like Musa Smith the best, but that's personal preference not homerism. Fargas would be my favorite but he has injury problems and his style is conducive to getting injured often.
 

Stout

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Originally posted by Krangthebrain
Stout: Man what crawled up your ass?

Seriously, Personally I'm not a big Johnson fan myself. I see a guy that had a great year, yeah, but was considered a major college bust up until this year, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence in anyone.

Runningbacks are actually really hard to judge because instincts are so important at the NFL level, and instincts are hard to gauge. Thomas Jones looked like he had good instincts but not superb instincts at the college level, but when he got to the pros his instincts looked really subpar. Whos to say that Johnson won't have the same problem?

And the whole PSU tradition (for the past ten years) of having first round busts at runningback, that is a fact. Until someone like Johnson comes along and breaks the trend, everyone will have the right to believe it. Just like some people believe that every Florida QB will suck, or that Florida receivers suck, or Texas A&M running backs suck.

I personally like Musa Smith the best, but that's personal preference not homerism. Fargas would be my favorite but he has injury problems and his style is conducive to getting injured often.

I know I'm flying off the handle and all, Krang. There are two things that really get me and they both happened in this thread. One is folks that just say a player's name. Like saying Ki-Jana Carter is actually a real statement. Perhaps if they elaborated, or did something other than make a short, smart-alec comment, it would be worth writing. (By-the-by, like Wadsworth, Ki-Jana wasn't a bust-he was an injury case).

Then everyone has to go and talk about all the best RBs in the draft without even mentioning Johnson. I think everyone needs to face facts. Whether I'm a PSU homer or not, and whether everyone 'thinks' he was a bust before this past season (which he was not), he was the best college RB this year. Period. Bar none. An argument could easily have been made that he should have won the Heisman.

As to why he wasn't a bust the last few seasons? Easy. He could and should have been the starter the last few seasons. Joe Pa had several quality, college starting quality RBs, and he wanted them to share carries. Word around PSU was that Johnson would have beaten them all out but he wanted to whine about getting the ball more. Yeah, he should have gotten the ball more, but as we all know, you whine, and Joe Pa won't be happy, so he kept it as RB by committee. That's why you didn't see anything out of Johnson earlier.

And finally, sorry Krang, for the earlier posts. Crap like that has just happened so often and I just get so bleepin' tired of it.
 

Krangodnzr

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Originally posted by Stout
I know I'm flying off the handle and all, Krang. There are two things that really get me and they both happened in this thread. One is folks that just say a player's name. Like saying Ki-Jana Carter is actually a real statement. Perhaps if they elaborated, or did something other than make a short, smart-alec comment, it would be worth writing. (By-the-by, like Wadsworth, Ki-Jana wasn't a bust-he was an injury case).

Then everyone has to go and talk about all the best RBs in the draft without even mentioning Johnson. I think everyone needs to face facts. Whether I'm a PSU homer or not, and whether everyone 'thinks' he was a bust before this past season (which he was not), he was the best college RB this year. Period. Bar none. An argument could easily have been made that he should have won the Heisman.

As to why he wasn't a bust the last few seasons? Easy. He could and should have been the starter the last few seasons. Joe Pa had several quality, college starting quality RBs, and he wanted them to share carries. Word around PSU was that Johnson would have beaten them all out but he wanted to whine about getting the ball more. Yeah, he should have gotten the ball more, but as we all know, you whine, and Joe Pa won't be happy, so he kept it as RB by committee. That's why you didn't see anything out of Johnson earlier.

And finally, sorry Krang, for the earlier posts. Crap like that has just happened so often and I just get so bleepin' tired of it.

I get pissed off too on a occasion, and I won't hold it against you :D. I like Larry Johnson, but he has done just enough to go high. If I was looking for a runner this year, I might look a grabbing one in the late second to early third range, since as a whole this runningback class sucks.

McGahee not getting injured would have made this a decent class, with one guy going high in the first, another going later in the first (Johnson) and about 3-4 going in the second round.

I always liked watching Johnson at PSU when he was a freshman, but until this year he never consistently produced (for reasons that you made apparent) and that raises question marks about his ability.
 

Stout

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Absolutely Krang. I'm not saying he's going to be a good pro. I just get tired of people saying he certainly won't be because of past players. I'd be afraid to take him in early in the first round but he would be a steal late first/early second round, IMO. Thanks for bringing a voice of reason on here :thumbup:
 

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I think Larry Johnson will indeed be another bust as a pro but unlike the rest of you, I really like some of the other Rbs.

Lee Suggs, Onterrio Smith, Musa Smith, Chris Brown, and Justin Fargas can all be NFL starters, IMO. I keep hearing how this class is bad but the eyeball disputes that theory.
 
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In his junior year (2001 season), Larry Johnson had a 4.75 ypc average. Not exactly what I would call a "bust", Krang.

Joe Paterno is OLD SCHOOL, he actually believes that his job is to teach kids to be men first and to win football games second. He has always shown loyalty to his senior players. There were two competent though not superstar RB's who were seniors in 2001, Omar Easy and Eric McCoo, whose ypc that year where 4.33 and 3.11, respectivley. Additionally, in Johnson's case JoePa probably over-compensated, not wanting to show favortism to the son of one of his coaching staff (Larry Johnson's Sr. is the defensive line coach for the Lions) This, limited Johnson's opportunities until his senior year.

Stout, quit apoligizing for being a homer!! We are all homers of some sort or another on this board. Just ask the Suggs supporters!
 

Krangodnzr

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Originally posted by CardLogic
In his junior year (2001 season), Larry Johnson had a 4.75 ypc average. Not exactly what I would call a "bust", Krang.

Joe Paterno is OLD SCHOOL, he actually believes that his job is to teach kids to be men first and to win football games second. He has always shown loyalty to his senior players. There were two competent though not superstar RB's who were seniors in 2001, Omar Easy and Eric McCoo, whose ypc that year where 4.33 and 3.11, respectivley. Additionally, in Johnson's case JoePa probably over-compensated, not wanting to show favortism to the son of one of his coaching staff (Larry Johnson's Sr. is the defensive line coach for the Lions) This, limited Johnson's opportunities until his senior year.

Stout, quit apoligizing for being a homer!! We are all homers of some sort or another on this board. Just ask the Suggs supporters!

Well it doesn't matter what his ypc were, he still did not produce a 1000 yard season. He probably would have, but he didn't.

I remember Johnson's freshman year and all the hype he was getting, any reasonable person would've assumed that he would start the next season and put up huge numbers but that wasn't the case. That's why, in a sense, he was a bust until his senior year.

He obviously wasn't getting the playing time he needed and that hurts his cause overall even though it wasn't his fault. It almost sounds like his only problem is that he went to the wrong school.
 

Stout

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No, he didn't go to the wrong school. He had the wrong attitude. All these pro guys go around yapping their mouths about 'get me the damn ball', and that's just what LJ tried to do. Tried. He was good, yeah, but so were some of the other backs on the team. LJ was demanding to get the ball more than everyone else. He was good but he was being a cry baby. Instead of letting his play put him on the field (and it would have), he got in the dog house and rode the pine. Yes, he hurt his own cause, but he finally figured it out and, voila, he was good. Now, did it hurt him too much? Only time will tell.
 

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