Interesting read on short and long sacks from FO

[Russ Smith]

Surprised this hasn't been posted here before.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/under-pressure/2012/under-pressure-long-and-short-sacks

"On the other hand, as has been apparent to anyone who has watched the Cardinals play, the Cardinals linemen should be picking up the check whenever they go out to dinner with Kevin Kolb or John Skelton. Among quarterbacks with 25 or more pass plays this year, Skelton and Kolb rank second-to-last and last in short-sack percentage. Kolb’s 6.1 percent short-sack percentage is nearly double that of any non-Cardinals quarterback.
There’s a pretty clear logic that short sacks are largely, although not entirely, the result of the offensive line. A missed hot read on a defensive-back blitz can mean a short sack is the result of a quarterback or wide receiver’s mistake, but more often, it’s the result of a lineman blowing his block before the quarterback has time to get rid of the ball.
On the other hand long sacks (those that take three or more seconds) are generally the result of either good defensive coverage, a poor play call, or a quarterback who decides to hold the ball too long. It’s hard to blame the line for a long sack.
Looking at the long sacks adds further evidence to the idea that the Cardinals front five is playing with tissue-paper consistency. Kolb is right around the league average in long sacks. The problem isn’t Kolb holding the ball: it’s the line failing to make their blocks."

To be fair they don't say if they're accounting for depth of drop so a short sack they define is sacked in less than 2.4 seconds. In the first 5 games (4 games and 1 drive) Kolb was "short sacked" 11 times, next closest was Brees with 7, in 69 more pass attempts.

This doesn't have the Buffalo loss which included more short sacks or the game yesterday where Skelton probably had some short sacks based on the short drops. Kolb had the highest percentage of short sacks, Skelton had the 2nd highest perecentage. Kolb was nearly double any other non Cardinal QB.

 

[thephoenixson28]

Also the sky is blue

 

[Duckjake]

Sacks are the only reason we've lost 3 straight. People blame Kolb. People blame Skelton. People blame the play calling. But the truth is the negative yards from the sacks kill our offense. A sack more than once every 10 pass attempts.

It's like back in the day when every 10th play we'd get a holding call and go backward 10 yards.

 

[vinnymac]

Not being able to pass protect is the biggest issue for the Arizona Cardinals. That is the reason Fitz isn't getting the ball more and the reason the Cardinals drives stall.

 

[JeffGollin]

Not being able to pass protect is the biggest issue for the Arizona Cardinals. That is the reason Fitz isn't getting the ball more and the reason the Cardinals drives stall.

Agree. Sacks sre bad enough, but Hurries also contribute to passing chaos.

 

[NJCardFan]

This is Whiz's hand picked line. Brown being healthy wouldn't be any improvement because he's been a human turnstile his entire career. Whiz has basically ignore the o-line his entire tenure. I can't imagine how scary this team would have been with Warner at QB with an above average O-line. He's only given the line a cursory glance and brings in washed up Steelers to patch work the line.

 

[cardpa]

You almost get the impression that Whiz has blind faith in Grimm being able to coach up these turnstiles. This is one of the reason why coaches get canned.

 

[Russ Smith]

What's interesting to me is the number of short sacks, Kolb was sacked 27 times so far this season according to FO's experts at film study, ELEVEN of them were in less than 2.4 seconds. Even if some of those are short drops you get the idea that it's just not that easy to design an offense with such a bad OL.

People complaining the QB holds it too long, doesn't see the field, we don't throw deep enough etc they're all somewhat right. But the fact is if you don't get 2.4 seconds on 40% of the sacks it's not a QB based problem it's an OL based problem that is being made worse by the QB's. PFF says Kolb has caused 3 sacks and Skelton 2 this season, that leaves by far the rest on the OL.

So while I understand why people are focusing on getting a QB, we clearly need one, it's kind of scary to think we also need to replace at least 3 positions on the OL and maybe all 5.

 

[Chopper0080]

What's interesting to me is the number of short sacks, Kolb was sacked 27 times so far this season according to FO's experts at film study, ELEVEN of them were in less than 2.4 seconds. Even if some of those are short drops you get the idea that it's just not that easy to design an offense with such a bad OL.

People complaining the QB holds it too long, doesn't see the field, we don't throw deep enough etc they're all somewhat right. But the fact is if you don't get 2.4 seconds on 40% of the sacks it's not a QB based problem it's an OL based problem that is being made worse by the QB's. PFF says Kolb has caused 3 sacks and Skelton 2 this season, that leaves by far the rest on the OL.

So while I understand why people are focusing on getting a QB, we clearly need one, it's kind of scary to think we also need to replace at least 3 positions on the OL and maybe all 5.

Not 100% accurate. Levi Brown returns at LT and then you help Bobby Massie on the right side. This actually upgrades two spots because Levi can win a higher % of one on one matchups than Batsite or Massie. Massie imrpoves by getting help vs speed outside as he holds up pretty vs the bull rush. If you can get a difference maker inside who can win one on one matchups, then you improve the other two interior players. We need to be smart this offseason and upgrade at QB as well as identify and acquire a difference maker, preferably inside to me, on the inside.

 

[Russ Smith]

Not 100% accurate. Levi Brown returns at LT and then you help Bobby Massie on the right side. This actually upgrades two spots because Levi can win a higher % of one on one matchups than Batsite or Massie. Massie imrpoves by getting help vs speed outside as he holds up pretty vs the bull rush. If you can get a difference maker inside who can win one on one matchups, then you improve the other two interior players. We need to be smart this offseason and upgrade at QB as well as identify and acquire a difference maker, preferably inside to me, on the inside.

I meant off this years OL so yes Brown is one. I know Massie isn't getting help but he's going to have to improve by leaps and bounds to be good enough next year. If we somehow had a LT and moved Brown back to RT I think that would improve both spots more but you can't get LT's at WalMart.

On the interior statistically Colledge is the best, I'm not a huge fan but I think with a better RG and C he looks better. You can argue the same thing with Sendlein, with better guards he looks better. But realistically I think we'll have 2 if not 3 new starters next year. Brown is one, I think Snyder is replaced for 2, the 3rd is dependent on getting someone.

 

[kerouac9]

Snyder isn't getting replaced this season unless it's for Kelemete. We doubled down on our terrible free agent guards last offseason, giving Snyder a $5 million signing bonus (cut him and we take a $4 million cap hit in 2013), and re-structuring Daryn Colledge's contract so that he would cost a little more than $6.8 million against the cap if he's cut in 2013.

Unless one or both of them take voluntary pay cuts going into 2013, our two crappy guards are going to cost us more than $11 million on the salary cap. Boo!

 

[JeffGollin]

Not 100% accurate. Levi Brown returns at LT and then you help Bobby Massie on the right side. This actually upgrades two spots because Levi can win a higher % of one on one matchups than Batsite or Massie. Massie imrpoves by getting help vs speed outside as he holds up pretty vs the bull rush. If you can get a difference maker inside who can win one on one matchups, then you improve the other two interior players. We need to be smart this offseason and upgrade at QB as well as identify and acquire a difference maker, preferably inside to me, on the inside.

Personally, I'm leaning toward a "big broom", clean sweep approach to overhauling our OL.

Usually there will be one or two players at any position-group that I'd be pulling for, but (with the lukewarm exception, perhaps, of the 3 rooks) I wouldn't lose sleep if they all were told "Buh-Bye!!"

 

[BigRedRage]

Personally, I'm leaning toward a "big broom", clean sweep approach to overhauling our OL.

Usually there will be one or two players at any position-group that I'd be pulling for, but (with the lukewarm exception, perhaps, of the 3 rooks) I wouldn't lose sleep if they all were told "Buh-Bye!!"

and they would be lucky to be 2nd string anywhere in the NFL. Our entire OL. Levi is the only one who could legitimately start. Sendlien has been coached up and has outperformed but hes no all pro.

 

[Chopper0080]

Personally, I'm leaning toward a "big broom", clean sweep approach to overhauling our OL.

Usually there will be one or two players at any position-group that I'd be pulling for, but (with the lukewarm exception, perhaps, of the 3 rooks) I wouldn't lose sleep if they all were told "Buh-Bye!!"

We have too much in signing bonuses wrapped up into our interior line to do a "big broom" approach as we would not have money to sign players. I do think we can transition out of our roster though and still develop and bring in talent.

If I am the Cardinals, in free agency I look at two players. Andy Levitre, OG and Jeff Otah, OT. Levitre would not be cheap but would give us a legitimate OG and allow Colledge, Snyder and Kelemente to battle for the RG spot. If Snyder is 3rd on the depth chart, you can still move him over to backup RT. Levitre could be franchised, so lets not count on this too much. My other FA option is Jeff Otah who is not with a team right now due to health reasons. However, with a year of rest, he might be worth a look and should not cost too much to do so.

In the draft, we have three picks to solves two big needs, QB & OL. I would use my first round pick to draft Tyler Wilson, even if I had to trade up to do so. If I had to trade up, I would negotiate to hold onto my 2nd round pick so I could upgrade the offensive line. I would target four players in Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma, Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina, Travis Frederick, OC, Wisconsin or Khaled Holmes, OC, Southern Cal. If we didn't trade up for Wilson and he was gone, I would look at Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama or Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M. Matthews may drop if teams think he is a RT only, which is a concern.

Dream scenario is as follows...we draft around #11 and Tyler Wilson falls.

1a-Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas

1b-Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
***Trade back into the first round w/ our 2nd rounder this year and 1st next year to trade into the late teens and take Chance Warmack who drops due to playing OG (ala David DeCastro).

3-Travis Frederick, OC, Wisconsin

This gives you a young, cheap QB to develop, an instant starter at OG, and a power OC to develop who can also play OG.

This won't happen, but is what I would do.

 

[Bodha]

Sacks are the only reason we've lost 3 straight. People blame Kolb. People blame Skelton. People blame the play calling. But the truth is the negative yards from the sacks kill our offense. A sack more than once every 10 pass attempts.

It's like back in the day when every 10th play we'd get a holding call and go backward 10 yards.

We were in all 3 games. Inept offense was the reason we lost. Even with all the sacks, we couldve won all 3 games.

Picks at the worst possible times. Thats on the QB. Dropped balls. Badly thrown balls. Missed FGs.

Its not all on the Oline. Alot is, but not all. We need better QB play. The opportunities are there. We just keep missing them.

 

[Duckjake]

We were in all 3 games. Inept offense was the reason we lost. Even with all the sacks, we couldve won all 3 games.

Picks at the worst possible times. Thats on the QB. Dropped balls. Badly thrown balls. Missed FGs.

Its not all on the Oline. Alot is, but not all. We need better QB play. The opportunities are there. We just keep missing them.

And the sacks are the reason we didn't win any of those games and almost lost to Miami. Go look at how many of our drives are killed by a sack over the last 4 weeks.

 

[NeverSayDieFan]

We have a FO??? Does Rod Graves know??

Seriously, you start off 4-0 and then do NOTHING...I repeat NOTHING to address the short-comings on your team as they become obvious. Good-bye 4-0 start! Keep signing those "stiffs" (ie: colledge and Snyder) to 5-yr. contracts, Gravesy.
...And here's a helpful GM "tip" you might find useful. Maybe watch a lil' film or at least read what the teams' fan base has to say about a particular player. When Colledge, Snyder, and Gray were signed the comments I read were...NO BIG LOSS!

Mark in SC Frustrated but as always, hopeful.
GO CARDS!