First-half surprises and disappointments
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Monday, January 19
Updated: January 19
10:27 AM ET
It's been the best of years. The worst of years.
Just as LeBron, Carmelo, Zach, Kirilenko and Ginobili are infusing new life into the league, guys like Kobe, T-Mac, Curry and Kwame are doing their damndest to stop the momentum.
The good news is that the league is enjoying unprecedented parity at the halfway mark of the 2003-04 season. The race for the NBA title is very much up for grabs.
The Lakers were supposed to run away with it, but injuries and controversy have tarnished their luster. Can they get healthy in time to make another serious run?
If they can't, who will emerge? The Kings? The Spurs? The T-Wolves? The Mavs? The Pacers? The Nuggets???
Insider's Chad Ford breaks down his biggest surprises, disappointments and awards in our first-half review.
Surprises
LeBron James, G, Cavaliers: Surprised? A month before the season there was no way anyone could live up to the hype James was generating. Insider predicted that a 15 ppg, 6 rpg and 5 apg average would be a resounding success for a high school senior. Now? Some NBA scouts are already calling James one of the top 10 players in the league. His 21.1 ppg, 6.8 apg and 5.0 rpg in January are the best rookie numbers since Elton Brand in 1999.
Denver Nuggets: James may getting more individual props than his partner in crime, Carmelo Anthony. But what really matters in the NBA is wins and Carmelo and the Nuggets have a huge leg up over James' Cavs. Insider wrote before the season that the Nuggets could be a surprise playoff contender if Anthony and Andre Miller had big years and Marcus Camby stayed healthy. So far, that's exactly what they're doing. Anthony's 18.4 ppg and 6.3 rpg have matched our high expectations for the rookie. Miller has rebounded from an awful year in L.A. to average 15.8 ppg, 6.3 apg and 4.3 apg on a nice 45 percent clip. Camby has played in 38 of the Nuggets' 42 games this season. That's got to be some sort of record. The Nuggets' 24-18 record has them on pace for a seventh seed in the rough and tumble Western Conference. That's unbelievable for a team that won just 17 games and sported the worst record in the NBA last season.
Brad Miller
Forward-Center
Sacramento Kings
Profile
2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
37 14.9 10.7 4.8 .513 .791
Brad Miller, C/PF, Kings: We wrote in August that the Kings dramatically overpaid for the big guy. In October, we wondered whether the Kings could survive Miller's replacing Chris Webber at the four. In January, the Kings own the best record in the NBA and Miller's been a huge part of the reason why. Yes, he was an all-star in the East last season, but it was by default. There weren't any decent big men in the conference to give it to. Miller's 14.9 ppg average isn't even a career high. But the 10.7 rpg and unbelievable 4.8 apg for a guy some people thought couldn't really pass or rebound are astonishing. We'll see what happens when C-Webb returns in the next few weeks, but without Miller and Peja Stojakovic (see awards below) the Kings would've tanked the first half of the season.
Indiana Pacers: Admit it. When the Pacers replaced Brad Miller and Ron Mercer with Scot Pollard, and made Anthony Johnson their big free-agent signing, you thought the Pacers were going to take at least one step back. What a difference a coach makes. Under the leadership of Rick Carlisle (who, by the way, should be second to only Jerry Sloan in the coach of the year race) the Pacers are tougher, much better defensively and, most importantly, under control offensively. Carlisle has found a way to turn Jermaine O'Neal into a defensive nightmare, keep Ron Artest out of trouble, sell Al Harrington on his sixthman role and remake Jamaal Tinsley into a asset in the backcourt. The Pacers' 31-11 record is second best in the league, and there are no signs of them falling off the cliff like they did last season. They've gone from underdogs to the favorites to represent the East in the Finals. The Pacers are for real.
Sam Cassell, G, Timberwolves: He was an afterthought in the Wolves' big shake-up last summer. While the media focused on the additions of Latrell Sprewell and Michael Olowokandi, Cassell, finally out of the shadow of the Big Three, found himself demoted to the fifth wheel behind Spree, Kandi, Kevin Garnett and Wally Szczerbiak. Whatever. With Wally and Kandi ailing, however, Cassell has quietly put together the best season of his career. 20.4 ppg, 7.4 apg, 42 percent shooting from 3 and 50 percent shooting from the field have made him arguably the best point guard in the West and a big reason why the Timberwolves, at 26-12, have the third-best record in the league.
Milwaukee Bucks: Insider predicted that they'd be the worst team in the NBA. Halfway into the season, they've already eclipsed our projected 19-win total (they have 22) and currently have the fourth-best record in the East. What's made the difference? Michael Redd turning in the first all-star performance of his career, solid, if unspectacular, performances by Tim Thomas, Desmond Mason, Joe Smith and T.J. Ford and a rookie head coach, Terry Porter, who has brought the team a toughness and cohesiveness that the old Big Three lacked.
Zach Randolph
Power Forward
Portland Trail Blazers
Profile
2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
39 21.6 11.2 2.4 .474 .790
Zach Randolph, F, Blazers: How does a guy go from averaging 8.4 ppg and 4.4 rpg to 21.1 ppg and 11.2 rpg in one season? An extra 22 minutes a night helps, but no one has made a bigger improvement this season than Randolph. Insider predicted he could be a 20 and 10 guy this year after watching him dominate Dallas in the playoffs. So far, he's been even more dominant in the paint and given the Blazers the courage to finally explore dumping Rasheed Wallace.
Utah Jazz: Including the Jazz on this list is almost cliche. Everyone thought that they'd be bad. The fact that the team is three games over .500 at the halfway mark is mind boggling. Even without their best player, Matt Harpring, and coach Jerry Sloan missing time to be with his ailing wife, the Jazz are still playing .500 ball. What's the explanation? Rigid execution, hard work and a lot of heart can still eclipse talent.
Andrei Kirilenko, F, Jazz: You can't mention the Jazz without recognizing Kirilenko. His stats (16.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg) don't really jump out at you until you start digging deeper. When you throw in 3.3 apg, 2.9 bpg, 2.2 spg, a 3 every night and 46 percent shooting from the field from a kid who still can't shoot and you're talking about one of the three or four most complete players in the NBA. If you thought we'd be writing that about Kirilenko at the halfway point, you're a witch.
Memphis Grizzlies Take your shots at Jerry West, but in the space of a little over a season and half, he's transformed the cellar dwelling Grizzlies into a playoff contender. This year's team is on pace to win 44 games, exactly 16 more than any other Grizzlies team. West has done all of this without acquiring a superstar like he did in L.A. Instead, the Grizzlies went a different route, acquiring as much mid-level talent as they could get their hands on and then turning the team over into the capable hands of Hubie Brown, who's convinced players to swallow their pride and individual games for the good of the team. Right now everything's clicking. The team has won six of its last eight and is making a serious push for that eighth playoff spot in the West.
Disappointments
Eddy Curry, C, Bulls: Insider pegged Curry to rise to elite status this season based on a fantastic finish last year and coach Bill Cartwright's comments that Curry would be the No. 1 option for the Bulls this season. Forget about it. Curry's lack of conditioning, combined with a lackluster effort on defense, put him in a doghouse he's been unable to get out of. The talent's still there. But the head? It doesn't look good.
Chicago Bulls: Seventh in the East? What we're we thinking? Curry's failure this year has been a big part of the Bulls' problems. So has Tyson Chandler's constant back problems and Jamal Crawford's (another player Insider thought would have a breakout year) poor shot selection. While rookie Kirk Hinrich has been a revelation, the rest of the Bulls stink. Even a hard-nosed coach like Scott Skiles hasn't been able to get them turned around. You hate to say this Bulls fans, but is it just a matter of time before GM John Paxson has to blow this team up again?
Tracy McGrady, G/F, Magic: T-Mac's numbers are just fine. But the horrible play of the Magic this season rubs off on the guy Insider felt was the best player, pound for pound, in the NBA. His lackluster play at times, combined with his complaining about zone defenses, Doc Rivers and everything else, has grown old. Superstars find a way to motivate teammates and carry the team on their back when things go bad. McGrady, for most of the Magic's swoon, looked on like a disinterested bystander, shrugging his shoulders and pointing fingers. With the Magic facing the stark cold reality of the lottery and very little cap flexibility or tradable assets, is it time to begin seriously exploring a trade?
Phoenix Suns: Insider called them the best young team in the NBA, predicted a sixth-place finish in the West this season and future championships down the road. A slow start and a couple of injuries snowballed into disaster and ended with the Suns throwing in the towel, trading all-star Stephon Marbury and vowing to rebuild the team. I can't argue with GM Bryan Colangelo, I think he did the right thing and the future of the Suns still looks very bright. But for this season, at least, what a sad reversal for last season's surprise team.
Kwame Brown
Power Forward
Washington Wizards
Profile
2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
39 9.4 6.6 1.5 .466 .731
Kwame Brown, F, Wizards: In October, Insider listed 10 players with whom we were running out of patience. All 10 had enormous potential and great opportunities to make a name for themselves this season. Unfortunately, all 10 have struggled yet again this year. Brown, Michael Olowokandi, Darius Miles, Keon Clark, Jonathan Bender, Stromile Swift, Tyson Chandler, Bonzi Wells, Jerome James and Hedo Turkoglu have all dropped duds on us this year. Injuries have derailed Olowokandi, Clark, Bender and Chandler. Inconsistent to uninspired play has haunted the rest. Brown remains the poster boy of this group -- an immensley talented former No. 1 pick who has all the skills but lacks the desire. Does a recent string of good games by Brown offer hope or is it just another false alarm in a disappointing career?
Dallas Mavericks: How can you knock a team that is 24-16 and just three games out of first place in the Midwest? Expectations. The Mavs added major firepower last summer when they traded for Antoine Walker and Antawn Jamison. Enough in fact, that Insider predicted that they'd walk away with the best record in the West (62-20) this season. Unless the Mavericks go 38-4 the rest of the way, they're going to fall short. Way short if you look at the trend. Their defense is the worst in the NBA, they struggle terribly on the road and the chemistry that Nellie was supposed to create has largely been sour. If the Mavs decide to shake things up even more and move Jamison, Walker or Finley, things may be put beyond repair this season.
Alonzo Mourning, C, Nets: Mourning's effort and his heart were there, but his body just wouldn't cooperate. News that Mourning would require a kidney transplant shattered the Nets' designs on an NBA title this season and ended, prematurely, Mourning's brilliant career.
Golden State Warriors: Under new head coach Eric Musselman, the Warriors were one of the surprise teams of 2003. The team of young up-and-coming stars led by Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Jason Richardson had the makings of a playoff team this year. Losing Arenas to free agency hurt. But the Warriors compounded the problem by shipping Jamison to Dallas for Nick Van Exel and letting Earl Boykins slip away in free agency. The outcome? The Warriors are back in the Western Conference cellar. Only the Suns have a worse record. Van Exel, who management touted as the spark plug that would push the Warriors into the playoffs, has been a bust. Mike Dunleavy, who was supposed to be the heir apparent to Jamison, has been ordinary, and injuries to Troy Murphy and Adonal Foyle have weakened their front line. Even breakout performances by Richardson and Erick Dampier haven't been enough to soften the blow of another miserable season in the Bay.
Antonio McDyess, F, Suns: Has one player's failure ever done so much to shake up a franchise? The excitement in New York surrounding McDyess' return from 18 months of injuries had many believing that Scott Layden and the Knicks were finally headed back to the playoffs and toward redemption. But McDyess struggled to regain his old form and the optimism was quickly replaced by disdain from the fans. Layden lost his job, Isiah Thomas took over and then swapped McDyess for Marbury in the biggest deal of the year. McDyess' return to the Suns hasn't been triumphant. His knee is hurting again and the word out of Phoenix is that he's headed to the injured list again. Another sad chapter in a tragic career?
Los Angeles Clippers Donald Sterling finally forked over the cash and locked Elton Brand and Corey Maggette into long-term deals. However, the Clippers are still as bad as ever. If the losing continues, don't expect to see Sterling sign another big check for a long, long time.
-----------------------------------------------
continued............................
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Monday, January 19
Updated: January 19
10:27 AM ET
It's been the best of years. The worst of years.
Just as LeBron, Carmelo, Zach, Kirilenko and Ginobili are infusing new life into the league, guys like Kobe, T-Mac, Curry and Kwame are doing their damndest to stop the momentum.
The good news is that the league is enjoying unprecedented parity at the halfway mark of the 2003-04 season. The race for the NBA title is very much up for grabs.
The Lakers were supposed to run away with it, but injuries and controversy have tarnished their luster. Can they get healthy in time to make another serious run?
If they can't, who will emerge? The Kings? The Spurs? The T-Wolves? The Mavs? The Pacers? The Nuggets???
Insider's Chad Ford breaks down his biggest surprises, disappointments and awards in our first-half review.
Surprises
LeBron James, G, Cavaliers: Surprised? A month before the season there was no way anyone could live up to the hype James was generating. Insider predicted that a 15 ppg, 6 rpg and 5 apg average would be a resounding success for a high school senior. Now? Some NBA scouts are already calling James one of the top 10 players in the league. His 21.1 ppg, 6.8 apg and 5.0 rpg in January are the best rookie numbers since Elton Brand in 1999.
Denver Nuggets: James may getting more individual props than his partner in crime, Carmelo Anthony. But what really matters in the NBA is wins and Carmelo and the Nuggets have a huge leg up over James' Cavs. Insider wrote before the season that the Nuggets could be a surprise playoff contender if Anthony and Andre Miller had big years and Marcus Camby stayed healthy. So far, that's exactly what they're doing. Anthony's 18.4 ppg and 6.3 rpg have matched our high expectations for the rookie. Miller has rebounded from an awful year in L.A. to average 15.8 ppg, 6.3 apg and 4.3 apg on a nice 45 percent clip. Camby has played in 38 of the Nuggets' 42 games this season. That's got to be some sort of record. The Nuggets' 24-18 record has them on pace for a seventh seed in the rough and tumble Western Conference. That's unbelievable for a team that won just 17 games and sported the worst record in the NBA last season.
Brad Miller
Forward-Center
Sacramento Kings
Profile
2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
37 14.9 10.7 4.8 .513 .791
Brad Miller, C/PF, Kings: We wrote in August that the Kings dramatically overpaid for the big guy. In October, we wondered whether the Kings could survive Miller's replacing Chris Webber at the four. In January, the Kings own the best record in the NBA and Miller's been a huge part of the reason why. Yes, he was an all-star in the East last season, but it was by default. There weren't any decent big men in the conference to give it to. Miller's 14.9 ppg average isn't even a career high. But the 10.7 rpg and unbelievable 4.8 apg for a guy some people thought couldn't really pass or rebound are astonishing. We'll see what happens when C-Webb returns in the next few weeks, but without Miller and Peja Stojakovic (see awards below) the Kings would've tanked the first half of the season.
Indiana Pacers: Admit it. When the Pacers replaced Brad Miller and Ron Mercer with Scot Pollard, and made Anthony Johnson their big free-agent signing, you thought the Pacers were going to take at least one step back. What a difference a coach makes. Under the leadership of Rick Carlisle (who, by the way, should be second to only Jerry Sloan in the coach of the year race) the Pacers are tougher, much better defensively and, most importantly, under control offensively. Carlisle has found a way to turn Jermaine O'Neal into a defensive nightmare, keep Ron Artest out of trouble, sell Al Harrington on his sixthman role and remake Jamaal Tinsley into a asset in the backcourt. The Pacers' 31-11 record is second best in the league, and there are no signs of them falling off the cliff like they did last season. They've gone from underdogs to the favorites to represent the East in the Finals. The Pacers are for real.
Sam Cassell, G, Timberwolves: He was an afterthought in the Wolves' big shake-up last summer. While the media focused on the additions of Latrell Sprewell and Michael Olowokandi, Cassell, finally out of the shadow of the Big Three, found himself demoted to the fifth wheel behind Spree, Kandi, Kevin Garnett and Wally Szczerbiak. Whatever. With Wally and Kandi ailing, however, Cassell has quietly put together the best season of his career. 20.4 ppg, 7.4 apg, 42 percent shooting from 3 and 50 percent shooting from the field have made him arguably the best point guard in the West and a big reason why the Timberwolves, at 26-12, have the third-best record in the league.
Milwaukee Bucks: Insider predicted that they'd be the worst team in the NBA. Halfway into the season, they've already eclipsed our projected 19-win total (they have 22) and currently have the fourth-best record in the East. What's made the difference? Michael Redd turning in the first all-star performance of his career, solid, if unspectacular, performances by Tim Thomas, Desmond Mason, Joe Smith and T.J. Ford and a rookie head coach, Terry Porter, who has brought the team a toughness and cohesiveness that the old Big Three lacked.
Zach Randolph
Power Forward
Portland Trail Blazers
Profile
2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
39 21.6 11.2 2.4 .474 .790
Zach Randolph, F, Blazers: How does a guy go from averaging 8.4 ppg and 4.4 rpg to 21.1 ppg and 11.2 rpg in one season? An extra 22 minutes a night helps, but no one has made a bigger improvement this season than Randolph. Insider predicted he could be a 20 and 10 guy this year after watching him dominate Dallas in the playoffs. So far, he's been even more dominant in the paint and given the Blazers the courage to finally explore dumping Rasheed Wallace.
Utah Jazz: Including the Jazz on this list is almost cliche. Everyone thought that they'd be bad. The fact that the team is three games over .500 at the halfway mark is mind boggling. Even without their best player, Matt Harpring, and coach Jerry Sloan missing time to be with his ailing wife, the Jazz are still playing .500 ball. What's the explanation? Rigid execution, hard work and a lot of heart can still eclipse talent.
Andrei Kirilenko, F, Jazz: You can't mention the Jazz without recognizing Kirilenko. His stats (16.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg) don't really jump out at you until you start digging deeper. When you throw in 3.3 apg, 2.9 bpg, 2.2 spg, a 3 every night and 46 percent shooting from the field from a kid who still can't shoot and you're talking about one of the three or four most complete players in the NBA. If you thought we'd be writing that about Kirilenko at the halfway point, you're a witch.
Memphis Grizzlies Take your shots at Jerry West, but in the space of a little over a season and half, he's transformed the cellar dwelling Grizzlies into a playoff contender. This year's team is on pace to win 44 games, exactly 16 more than any other Grizzlies team. West has done all of this without acquiring a superstar like he did in L.A. Instead, the Grizzlies went a different route, acquiring as much mid-level talent as they could get their hands on and then turning the team over into the capable hands of Hubie Brown, who's convinced players to swallow their pride and individual games for the good of the team. Right now everything's clicking. The team has won six of its last eight and is making a serious push for that eighth playoff spot in the West.
Disappointments
Eddy Curry, C, Bulls: Insider pegged Curry to rise to elite status this season based on a fantastic finish last year and coach Bill Cartwright's comments that Curry would be the No. 1 option for the Bulls this season. Forget about it. Curry's lack of conditioning, combined with a lackluster effort on defense, put him in a doghouse he's been unable to get out of. The talent's still there. But the head? It doesn't look good.
Chicago Bulls: Seventh in the East? What we're we thinking? Curry's failure this year has been a big part of the Bulls' problems. So has Tyson Chandler's constant back problems and Jamal Crawford's (another player Insider thought would have a breakout year) poor shot selection. While rookie Kirk Hinrich has been a revelation, the rest of the Bulls stink. Even a hard-nosed coach like Scott Skiles hasn't been able to get them turned around. You hate to say this Bulls fans, but is it just a matter of time before GM John Paxson has to blow this team up again?
Tracy McGrady, G/F, Magic: T-Mac's numbers are just fine. But the horrible play of the Magic this season rubs off on the guy Insider felt was the best player, pound for pound, in the NBA. His lackluster play at times, combined with his complaining about zone defenses, Doc Rivers and everything else, has grown old. Superstars find a way to motivate teammates and carry the team on their back when things go bad. McGrady, for most of the Magic's swoon, looked on like a disinterested bystander, shrugging his shoulders and pointing fingers. With the Magic facing the stark cold reality of the lottery and very little cap flexibility or tradable assets, is it time to begin seriously exploring a trade?
Phoenix Suns: Insider called them the best young team in the NBA, predicted a sixth-place finish in the West this season and future championships down the road. A slow start and a couple of injuries snowballed into disaster and ended with the Suns throwing in the towel, trading all-star Stephon Marbury and vowing to rebuild the team. I can't argue with GM Bryan Colangelo, I think he did the right thing and the future of the Suns still looks very bright. But for this season, at least, what a sad reversal for last season's surprise team.
Kwame Brown
Power Forward
Washington Wizards
Profile
2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
39 9.4 6.6 1.5 .466 .731
Kwame Brown, F, Wizards: In October, Insider listed 10 players with whom we were running out of patience. All 10 had enormous potential and great opportunities to make a name for themselves this season. Unfortunately, all 10 have struggled yet again this year. Brown, Michael Olowokandi, Darius Miles, Keon Clark, Jonathan Bender, Stromile Swift, Tyson Chandler, Bonzi Wells, Jerome James and Hedo Turkoglu have all dropped duds on us this year. Injuries have derailed Olowokandi, Clark, Bender and Chandler. Inconsistent to uninspired play has haunted the rest. Brown remains the poster boy of this group -- an immensley talented former No. 1 pick who has all the skills but lacks the desire. Does a recent string of good games by Brown offer hope or is it just another false alarm in a disappointing career?
Dallas Mavericks: How can you knock a team that is 24-16 and just three games out of first place in the Midwest? Expectations. The Mavs added major firepower last summer when they traded for Antoine Walker and Antawn Jamison. Enough in fact, that Insider predicted that they'd walk away with the best record in the West (62-20) this season. Unless the Mavericks go 38-4 the rest of the way, they're going to fall short. Way short if you look at the trend. Their defense is the worst in the NBA, they struggle terribly on the road and the chemistry that Nellie was supposed to create has largely been sour. If the Mavs decide to shake things up even more and move Jamison, Walker or Finley, things may be put beyond repair this season.
Alonzo Mourning, C, Nets: Mourning's effort and his heart were there, but his body just wouldn't cooperate. News that Mourning would require a kidney transplant shattered the Nets' designs on an NBA title this season and ended, prematurely, Mourning's brilliant career.
Golden State Warriors: Under new head coach Eric Musselman, the Warriors were one of the surprise teams of 2003. The team of young up-and-coming stars led by Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Jason Richardson had the makings of a playoff team this year. Losing Arenas to free agency hurt. But the Warriors compounded the problem by shipping Jamison to Dallas for Nick Van Exel and letting Earl Boykins slip away in free agency. The outcome? The Warriors are back in the Western Conference cellar. Only the Suns have a worse record. Van Exel, who management touted as the spark plug that would push the Warriors into the playoffs, has been a bust. Mike Dunleavy, who was supposed to be the heir apparent to Jamison, has been ordinary, and injuries to Troy Murphy and Adonal Foyle have weakened their front line. Even breakout performances by Richardson and Erick Dampier haven't been enough to soften the blow of another miserable season in the Bay.
Antonio McDyess, F, Suns: Has one player's failure ever done so much to shake up a franchise? The excitement in New York surrounding McDyess' return from 18 months of injuries had many believing that Scott Layden and the Knicks were finally headed back to the playoffs and toward redemption. But McDyess struggled to regain his old form and the optimism was quickly replaced by disdain from the fans. Layden lost his job, Isiah Thomas took over and then swapped McDyess for Marbury in the biggest deal of the year. McDyess' return to the Suns hasn't been triumphant. His knee is hurting again and the word out of Phoenix is that he's headed to the injured list again. Another sad chapter in a tragic career?
Los Angeles Clippers Donald Sterling finally forked over the cash and locked Elton Brand and Corey Maggette into long-term deals. However, the Clippers are still as bad as ever. If the losing continues, don't expect to see Sterling sign another big check for a long, long time.
-----------------------------------------------
continued............................
