John Hollinger - Schedule Break Down & Amare

[arwillan]

Utah worried me much more without Shaq. Boozer and AK-47 would just park in the paint all day and shoot over Amare. When they were both on the floor we had nobody to body up both. Marion would end up on either AK or Boozer. Didn't like that at all. That's all changed with Shaq. That's why Utah just doesn't scare me over a 7 game series as much as before.

yeah, i feel the same way. I think we have a lot more to worry about in williams than we do in boozer and ak47. his strength is really tough on nash. we just have to keep an eye on the back door cuts by ak and brewer, first of all. Then we just need to make williams shoot contested jump shots, which of course is easier said than done. If we can do that, i think we'll be fine. if williams gets easy points or assists on us, we may be in for some trouble.

 

[Cheesebeef]

They probably won't. Home court is determined by W-L record, even if it gives the #5 seed HCA over the #4.

we're only up one game, they have the tie-breaker on us, and we still have a tough schedule. I think it's pretty much a toss up at this point.

 

[elindholm]

we're only up one game, they have the tie-breaker on us, and we still have a tough schedule.

My mistake, I thought the Suns were up two games on the Jazz.

 

[OldDirtMcGirt]

I'm comfortable with any series in which Shaq is guarded by Mehmet Okur. Steve Nash actually played some decent defense against Deron Williams (who isn't as quick as a Tony Parker or Chris Paul) last time around, and I'm not sure about AK's health status. If you break it down position by position, we have a pretty solid advantage.

 

[jandaman]

Yeah, my biggest concern with Utah for the last 3 seasons, has been Okur just stepping out mid range or behind the arc and just killing the Suns...

Stoudemire gets owned by players with an outside game... actually Stoudemire, gets owned by any big man period.

But not as bad these days due to O'Neal..
but still... big men who can shoot.... its over.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Well, all the media people, like Barkley for instance, are wondering about Shaq's contract over the final two years. We may lose someone like Barbosa or Diaw with basically no compensation to try and work the numbers.

The media also wondered of Steve Nash would hold up to the final years of their contract. Every one of them are eating crow.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Yeah, my biggest concern with Utah for the last 3 seasons, has been Okur just stepping out mid range or behind the arc and just killing the Suns...

Stoudemire gets owned by players with an outside game... actually Stoudemire, gets owned by any big man period.

But not as bad these days due to O'Neal..
but still... big men who can shoot.... its over.

I agree with these. The best jump shooting big men (midrange) are Amare and Boozer. Boozer always does well in this matchup.

 

[myrondizzo]

we're only up one game, they have the tie-breaker on us, and we still have a tough schedule. I think it's pretty much a toss up at this point.

have you seen the jazz remaining schedule?
sa, @no, @dal, den, hou, and @sa.

 

[Michael]

have you seen the jazz remaining schedule?
sa, @no, @dal, den, hou, and @sa.

Are you serious? Wow. That's playoff preparation at its best!

So it all looks like Utah in the first round. I don't think we can overtake L.A. since they hold the tie-breaker.

I am always very concerned about facing Utah, and certainly the series can go either way.

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

Thats an evil ending to a long season.

 

[Cheesebeef]

have you seen the jazz remaining schedule?
sa, @no, @dal, den, hou, and @sa.

man, that is murderer's row coming down the stretch. Still, it ain't like we got cupcakes. We've still got Dallas, SA, Houston, GS and Portland... although having Minny and Memphis in there is pretty damn sweet, long as we take care of business.

 

[myrondizzo]

I think that gives us a pretty good shot at getting home court.

 

[BC867]

There is a free Preview of his insider information on ESPN. I only posted the Suns part but its a good article. Also, he also says that since moving Amare over 22 games ago, Amare is the best player in the league.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=WestForecast-080403&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dhollinger_john%26page%3dWestForecast-080403
Forecasting the West: How will the top teams finish?

By John Hollinger ESPNInsider ... Rather, it's been his apparent impact on Amare Stoudemire. The Suns made this deal in part to move Stoudemire out of the center spot, so you have to give them credit for the results.

In 22 games at power forward, Stoudemire has been the best player in the league. No, really, he's been that good. He has averaged 29.4 points on 58.2 percent shooting and averaged nearly 11 free-throw attempts.

But the number that maybe is most important is 36.7. That's how many minutes per game he's played with Shaq, after averaging only 33.0 before the trade because he was in foul trouble too often. Stoudemire's foul rate is still fairly high, but it has declined just enough that he's able to play his regular minutes.

That's the point some of us have been making ever since Amare became our Center. Only trading Shawn Marion for a legitimate Center, allowing STAT to move back (much of the time anyway) to Power Forward -- and having two big men on the court, not just Amare -- was essential.

Any Center would have moved us in the right direction. Shaq's positive presence, championship mentality and sense of humor were bonuses.

Replacing Diaw with a big man as well would have been the icing on the cake.

 

[cly2tw]

That's the point some of us have been making ever since Amare became our Center. Only trading Shawn Marion for a legitimate Center, allowing STAT to move back (much of the time anyway) to Power Forward -- and having two big men on the court, not just Amare -- was essential.

Any Center would have moved us in the right direction. Shaq's positive presence, championship mentality and sense of humor were bonuses.

Replacing Diaw with a big man as well would have been the icing on the cake.

That's the reason I have been hating DA for holding back Amare's development by insisting on playing him at the C. Have we grabbed the chance to swap Marion for Chandler 2 years ago. We might have won it all last year and Amare might be in the mix of MVP talk this year. Myopic DA!

 

[Sovereignz]

I'm more worried about our defense as a team against Utah than individual matchups, because the Jazz are the masters of offensive execution when it comes to reading and reacting to your team's defense (Deron is amazing at this, by far the best point in the league at reading defenses IMO. I would say Nash but he seems completely unaware of when defenders have an easy lane to pick off his passes). Yes, Boozer and Okur will get some open J's with Shaq and Amare guarding them, but that won't be what hurts us. The 3 backdoor cuts from Deron to Brewer every single game will kill us, the not fighting over screens they set for Korver to set him up for mid range J's (like Detroit does for Rip) will kill us, the bad P&R defense on Deron will kill us, he'll get into the lane pretty much at will and I can see or guys getting in foul trouble.

Their bench is just scary. Millsap and Harpring always give them hustle and good play off the bench, now they have Korver who just destroyed us in the fourth quarter last time we played them.

I think we'll win if we have home court, but man, those guys are like unbeatable at home. 35-4? That's just ridiculous.