Josh Rosen put in worst situation of any rookie QB in history

[BW52]

There are 2 QBs that were as bad as Rosen in the history of the NFL and have had good careers. Stafford and Goff

Goff's QBase was double Rosen's so he was just much more likely to make the giant leap that he did.

QBASE Top 10 Prospects Since 1996

PlayerProjected DYAR

Philip Rivers 1,969
Carson Palmer 1,934
Donovan McNabb 1,831
Peyton Manning 1,306
Marcus Mariota 1,302
Russell Wilson 1,246
Byron Leftwich 1,239
Ben Roethlisberger 1,227
Jared Goff 1,211
Aaron Rodgers 1,205


Is it possible Rosen will become an elite starter? Yes it is is possible but it is REALLY unlikely.

And what is the possibility Murray will become a elite starter?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Rosen had a better rookie year than Troy Aikman (similar size and also out of UCLA). Pretty sure the Cowboys were glad they stuck it out with their top QB pick. Hope we do, too. BTW: Troy never put up the best stats and percentages, but he was part of a team that won 3 SB's.

Aikman is absolutely another one

 

[Brian in Mesa]

And what is the possibility Murray will become a elite starter?

History is not on his side.

 

[slanidrac16]

Seasoned veterans would have (and did) fail in the same circumstance the rook was put into last year. Watching the games, he could just have easily been 6-7 as he was 3-10, which would have been truly remarkable. I wouldn't give up on him at this point. To be sure, he could have been 0-13 as well, but the what if's are true of any qb.
The qb needs a team around him to win, true anywhere. Kyler Murray on this same team with no significant upgrades will fail. The top pick (a once a generation situation) is what needs to be used to flood the team with talent. Picking Murray trades one rookie for another on the same offensive roster.

Good point. Compare Rosen to Bradford who was a seasoned veteran that had experienced some success. Why did he look worse than he ever did before? The reason he was benched for Rosen was because he was smart enough to throw the ball away before getting sacked. Even an experienced qb was beyond terrible.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

The rush to crush and destroy Rosen is laughable.

I have said that he will be an average to below average NFL starter. That isn't a crush or a rush.

That is supported by a ton of data points and his actual production.

 

[BW52]

The rush to defend Rosen is just comical because half the comments don't even make sense.

It's always this:

Rosen defender: Here is a supposition stated as if it is fact with nothing tangible to support it.

I respond with: Here are tangible things that dispute your supposition

Rosen defender: Stats are lies! You are lies. To heck with your foosball stats. Foosball stats are the devil!

Since Stats are your almighty end-all and you obviously adhere to them that's fine for you.Not everyone agrees that everything can be simply listed in black and white and put on a piece of paper.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

History is not on his side.

It's the purest gamble. It's more likely he busts than hits but if he hits it's going to be incredible.

 

[BW52]

I have said that he will be an average to below average NFL starter. That isn't a crush or a rush.

That is supported by a ton of data points and his actual production.

Once again the old data points.Black and white and on paper.I guess its a good thing the game isn`t just played on paper.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Since Stats are your almighty end-all and you obviously adhere to them that's fine for you.Not everyone agrees that everything can be simply listed in black and white and put on a piece of paper.

Sure and he could totally defy all projections and blow up. It simply hasn't happened before.

I can't find a single QB that was average from analytics, had a bad rookie season, and became great.

 

[BW52]

Sure and he could totally defy all projections and blow up. It simply hasn't happened before.

I can't find a single QB that was average from analytics, had a bad season, and became great.

you say that about Rosen and yet history says that 5`10 Qbs having success in the NFl is extremely rare but you buy into Murray.So In your opinion using analytics Rosen won`t become great and Murray will succeed?

 

[DVontel]

You're not taking into account that Josh also contributed to the fact that our offense was unwatchable. Yes, the entire coaching staff was abysmal. Yes, the Oline sucked. And yes, Josh Rosen was awful too. Josh can be good, as long as everything else around him is good. Can we trust this organization to make EVERYTHING around him good/great?? After watching this team since 1963, I have to say no. I have to laugh when MB talks about how he's always studying & talking to franchises that routinely win championships. Hell, we are the OLDEST franchise in the NFL. Why aren't teams coming to us? After all these years, we can barely get to 1st base, let alone 2nd. For this franchise to sniff a championship, they need to be GREAT at the most impactful position in the sport. It'll be a long time before we'll have the opportunity we have right now. Don't blow it Cardinals. Murray is the guy.

It’s almost as if this applies to every QB ever in the history of the game.

 

[DVontel]

I’m pro Kyler but I’m at the point where I almost want Rosen to knock us out the playoffs on a GW drive.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

you say that about Rosen and yet history says that 5`10 Qbs having success in the NFl is extremely rare but you buy into Murray.So In your opinion using analytics Rosen won`t become great and Murray will succeed?

I buy into Murray's accuracy, third down conversion rate, and passer rating against nickel and dime defenses, which are leading indicators for future success.

His height is not, which is why I say he is more likely to bust than hit. I have never discounted the arguments about his height because they are completely valid.

It's why I say I will be fine if the Cardinals say "We can build a great team around an average QB" rather than "We want to take a big gamble"

Personally I would rather gamble on greatness than play it safe but it doesn't mean I am right.

 

[DVontel]

What’s the point of you guys saying Rosen needs a good supporting cast for him to be good.

Um, no sh... Sherlock, that applies to every QB, Hall of famer or not, to play the game.

Rodgers, Peyton, Brees, & Brady certainly weren’t going out there winning with guys that just worked for WalMart.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

What’s the point of you guys saying Rosen needs a good supporting cast for him to be good.

Um, no sh... Sherlock, that applies to every QB, Hall of famer or not, to play the game.

Rodgers, Peyton, Brees, & Brady certainly weren’t going out there winning with guys that just worked for WalMart.

This is the difference:

Good QB's put up average to above average seasons in bad situations. Think of some of the olines around Wilson and Luck as recent examples or how Green Bay becomes one of the worst teams in the league without Rodgers. That is Wins Above Replacement

Average QBs put up bad seasons in bad circumstances because they are Replacement level. They put up good seasons in good circumstances. This would be your Eli Manning's of the world.

Bad QBs tank good teams because they are below replacement. They especially hurt defenses because the defense is constantly put in bad situations. Think Derek Anderson here.

 

[Krangodnzr]

History is not on his side.

Listen to what talent evaluators say. There has literally never been another player like Kyler Murray.

 

[TheCardFan]

David Carr had it way worse than Rosen his rookie year and that is just off the top of my head.

76 sacks compared to 45.

His top receivers were Cory Bradford and Jabar Gafney

Their defense was worse and of course it was because it was an expansion team roster.

It's just recency bias to say that no one has ever had to deal with what Rosen had to deal with.

Carr: QB Rating 62.8 TD 9 INT 15 2424 yards 52.5% completion
Rosen QB Rating 66.7 TD 11 INT 14 2278 yards 55.2% completion

So hey Rosen was marginally better in much better circumstances

Your missing a very important part of the equation.

HC - Dom Capers had 4 years of head coaching experience by Carr's rookie year and continued to be the head coach for 4 years.
OC - Chris Palmer had 12 years of NFL coaching experience, including being an OC the year before.

I would say the majority of what you said was close above but you are not factoring in the instability/lack of experience of the HC/OC.

Also, in the history of the NFL...you can only think of one situation that was close to as bad (but not as bad) as Rosen's? That also makes the point.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Your missing a very important part of the equation.

HC - Dom Capers had 4 years of head coaching experience by Carr's rookie year and continued to be the head coach for 4 years.
OC - Chris Palmer had 12 years of NFL coaching experience, including being an OC the year before.

I would say the majority of what you said was close above but you are not factoring in the instability/lack of experience of the HC/OC.

Also, in the history of the NFL...you can only think of one situation that was close to as bad (but not as bad) as Rosen's? That also makes the point.

I was just going off the top of my head. I could look into it but it would take a lot of time to know every rookie starter and analyze their situations.

 

[kerouac9]

QBASE likes Murry less than it liked Rosen. Being a one-year starter is a huge red flag that people are discounting. So is playing with a s-load of talent.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/qbase-2019

 

[Krangodnzr]

This is the difference:

Good QB's put up average to above average seasons in bad situations. Think of some of the olines around Wilson and Luck as recent examples or how Green Bay becomes one of the worst teams in the league without Rodgers. That is Wins Above Replacement

Average QBs put up bad seasons in bad circumstances because they are Replacement level. They put up good seasons in good circumstances. This would be your Eli Manning's of the world.

Bad QBs tank good teams because they are below replacement. They especially hurt defenses because the defense is constantly put in bad situations. Think Derek Anderson here.

One of the most compelling issues against sticking with Rosen is that he didn't really even have one good game all year. Even Blaine Gabbert posted an above 90 passer rating in his time with the Cardinals.

 

[Krangodnzr]

QBASE likes Murry less than it liked Rosen. Being a one-year starter is a huge red flag that people are discounting. So is playing with a s-load of talent.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/qbase-2019

Mayfield played with the same talent.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Hah I was wrong there. Will own it. K9 is correct Rosen is higher than Murray on QBase

 

[Chris_Sanders]

The reason I am using QBase is because it tries to account for all the risks that the Anti Murray crowd wants to address.

Obviously the largest issue with QBase is only passing. It has nothing to do with the ability to run.

Now on to why it matters between Rosen and Murray.

Rosen had everything that QBase loves for except accuracy. 3 year starter. Average schedule. No real talent around him. 623

Murray has the stuff QBase hates. 1 year starter. Good talent around him. Decent schedule. 595

 

[Vacard]

QBASE likes Murry less than it liked Rosen. Being a one-year starter is a huge red flag that people are discounting. So is playing with a s-load of talent.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/qbase-2019

Vick and Trubisky had one year at college

 

[ARZCardinals]

I agree it was bad, but he did very little to help himself.
Look again at the tape and you'll see Rosen developed very bad habits i.e. double clutching, waiting for WR's to get open rather than anticipation of the cut,having the ball there on time and he couldn't throw a simple screen pass without the DE knocking it down or intercepting it.
As someone who coaches football it takes hours and hours just to get one play run to perfection.
Trying to get a new OC in a few games in....not good
My biggest issue with Rosen is for too many games the team couldn't even get a single first down on any drives and there were games where they didn't even get to the 50 yard line until the 4th quarter (and mind you they start at the 25)
The offense is everyone...and he was part of 'everyone'
Is the blame on him...not completely
I'm not gonna cry a tear if he's gone...and wish him the best.
I'll run the Murray train and see where it takes the Cardinals (hopefully not back to the top 15 pick again)