K9's First Round Projection and Three Round Cards Mock

kerouac9

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The rules, as always:

1) No Trades. Trades are unpredictable, so I don't predict them.

2) I use the CBSSportsline prospect rankings to determine who might be available when the Cards pick in the later rounds.

3) I don't predict the last three rounds because I don't know where the Cards will be picking at that point. I'd expect that the Cards will look at prospects at RB, OL, and DL. I may update this thread with rounds 4-6 after the draft order is set later this week.


1. Houston Texans – Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina.
Critics will disagree on whether Clowney is the defensive version of Andrew Luck—a once-in-a-generation talent—but no one can disagree that Clowney is the most talented player in this draft, and fully deserving of the #1 overall pick.

2. St. Louis Rams – Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M. This mock doesn’t predict trades, so I’m not predicting one. St. Louis is likely going to trade out of this spot, but there’s nothing much I can do about this. If the Rams are forced to stay here, they’ll likely take the sure production they’ll get from Matthews over the projection that they could be getting with Greg Robinson.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars – Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida. Jacksonville doesn’t have a ton of answers for its QB position, but they just took a top offensive tackle, and they can continue to put Chad Henne in the line of fire until they’re able to acquire some weapons.

4. Cleveland Browns – Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville. Yes, he had a terrible pro day. But what’s left on the board right now are OT, WR, and OLB—positions that the Browns already have an embarrassment of riches. Bridgewater is the most pro-ready prospect available, and he’ll make Kyle Shanahan remember the value of players like Jake Plummer and Matt Schaub.

5. Oakland Raiders – Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn. Robinson might have the highest upside of all the OT prospects in the last two drafts. Young, big, and quick, Oakland will probably still find a way to screw up this prospect.

6. Atlanta Falcons – Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan. If the draft breaks out like this, Atlanta might find no shortage of suitors for the right to draft Sammy Watkins or Khalil Mack. Without a trade partner, the Falcons take Lewan, who will be able to help protect Matt Ryan from four position on the Falcons offensive line.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson. Quietly, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have positioned themselves to be competitive in the NFC South in 2014. Watkins will provide another playmaker to an already-dangerous mix of talent.

8. Minnesota Vikings – Khalil Mack, DE, Buffalo. Minnesota has lost ton of defensive playmakers in free agency. Mack will provide them with a nice complement to Everson Griffin, although they could be interested in trading back a little to pick up a cornerback.

9. Buffalo Bills – Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M. Buffalo has been trapped in the basement of a very competitive AFC East for some time. They’ve got a nice defense; Evans will give a deep threat and talent on the outside for the four or five games a year in Buffalo when it’s possible to pass the ball.

10. Detroit Lions – Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State. The Lions stay close to home and bring in a kid who immediately upgrades their talent-poor secondary and allows the offense to get back on the field.

11. Tennessee Titans – Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA. Tennessee is switching to a 3-4 defense under new defensive coordinator Ray Horton. It’s possible that Whisenhunt will love QB Johnny Manziel, but Barr provides the kind of talent and flexibility to the defensive scheme that’s good value.

12. New York Giants – Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina. The Giants should draft Zack Martin here, but they don’t because they don’t like drafting OL in the first round—particularly this high. Instead, they get a modern pass-first TE to provide another weapon for Eli Manning, who has seen some important defections through free agency.

13. St. Louis Rams – Hasean Clinton-Dix, FS, Alabama. Another possible landing spot for Martin, but in this scenario, the Rams already drafted Jake Matthews. Clinton-Dix provides the kind of talent in the back-seven of the St. Louis defense that teams like San Francisco and Seattle already possess and have been a foundation for those successful franchises.

14. Chicago Bears – Aaron Donald, DT/DE, Pittsburgh. The Bears lost 2013 Franchise tackle Henry Melton in free agency. Donald may not be able to provide much support to their awful run defense right away, but will be able to be a disruptive presence if he can play the run on the way to the quarterback.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers – Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State. Gilbert would be a great addition to an aging Steelers secondary.

16. Dallas Cowboys – Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M. Hoots and hollers from the TV and the crowd at Radio City as Jerry Jones makes a completely mystifying decision.

17. Baltimore Ravens – Zack Martin, OT, Notre Dame. Martin slides to Ozzie Newsome, who plugs him into the hole created by Michael Oher, and could be the long-term solution at left tackle.

18. New York Jets – Marquise Lee, WR, Southern California. The Jets have a bridge to the future in Michael Vick, but they still lack a ton of offensive weapons.

19. Miami Dolphins – Xavier Su’a-Filo, OG, UCLA. Su’a-Filo comes from a program with an NFL-caliber head coach, and hopefully will quickly be able to become a leader and contributor to an offensive line that may be the entire team’s weak link.

20. Arizona Cardinals – Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri. Odell Beckham, Jr. (WR, LSU), C.J. Mosley (ILB, Alabama), and Louis Nix were on the board also, but Ealy provides the best combination of value and talent for the Cards in the first round. Ealy possesses rare size and athleticism and will be able to quickly contribute in a rotational role.

52. Troy Niklas, TE, Notre Dame. The Cards pass on prospects Kareem Martin (DE, North Carolina) and Antonio Richardson (OT, Tennessee) for a blocking TE with a ton of potential in the passing game in Niklas.

84. Stanley Jean-Baptiste, CB, Nebraska. Jean-Baptiste will enter a crowded depth chart in 2014 training camp, but will provide excellent length and long-term potential as Jerraud Powers and Antonio Cromartie are scheduled for free agency in 2015.
 

az jam

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Card picks could happen. I really think if Ealy is there he will be their pick.

Love the Cowboy pick of Manzeil, with Jerry you never know.
 

Chopper0080

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Figures you would copy my projected first round pick...

Otherwise...well thought out draft.
 
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kerouac9

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Figures you would copy my projected first round pick...

Otherwise...well thought out draft.

The problem with projecting Ealy to the Cards is that he's a pass rusher, and those guys tend to go quickly, and we have perhaps four 3-4 defenses in the five spots ahead of us. I'd like to see it happen, but isn't it possible that Ealy goes in the top 15?
 

WildBB

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Nice work.

It seems the Cards have interest in Ealy and he should be around @20. He's a little light to hold up against the run and would have to put on weight for a 3/4 DE, imo. Unless they intend to groom him for SOLB spot eventually. Don't know exactly his movement skills, but he has got some decent pass rush ability. I'm sure he's never been asked to drop into coverage but once or twice in his whole career, up to now.

Pryor would also be tough to pass on and it's a good possibility he'll be there as well, but I can see us going for front 7 first. I also like Stephon Tuitt as much or better as 3/4 DE. The DL class is very deep this year so they very well may wait to take one around the 4th Rd. Ego Ferguson (LSU) Will Sutton(Arizona St), Caraun Reid (Princeton). George Uko(USC), Daniel McCullers(Tennessee), and DaQuan Jones(Penn St.) all could be around then.

I'd go S (Buchannan) in the 2nd. TE (Fedorowitcz, Lynch) in the 3rd.
 

MadCardDisease

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The Cardinals need to develop a future pass rusher and Ealy would be a good option. They've neglected drafting a pass rusher early for way too long. They need more young legs chasing the QB.
 

RugbyMuffin

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Excellent read. Thanx

Sent from my SCH-I405 using Tapatalk 2
 
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kerouac9

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NFL released compensatory picks today. Cards didn't get one, but a bunch of teams got 3rd and 4th round picks. I'll update the draft and do the last three rounds when I know where the Cards are picking.
 

az jam

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The problem with projecting Ealy to the Cards is that he's a pass rusher, and those guys tend to go quickly, and we have perhaps four 3-4 defenses in the five spots ahead of us. I'd like to see it happen, but isn't it possible that Ealy goes in the top 15?

He could, I've seen some mocks by so called experts that have him in top 15 but who knows? I do like Dee Ford if Ealy is gone when we pick. Regardless, there should be a good player there when we pick as its a deep draft.
 

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I could get on board with that draft I really like Baptiste. He's huge and physical. I think he's going to be great he probably won't be there in round 3 but if he is they should jump on him
 

Krangodnzr

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I really like this mock. I'm going back and forth between Ealy and Ford, but I'm really warming to the idea of Ealy. I guess Ealy didn't look great running through LB drills at his pro day, but I don't think he's worked there much and I would assume he would drop about 10 lbs. to play there in the NFL.

I love the Niklas pick. Great bloodlines (Matthews family) and pedigree (Notre Dame TEs have been successful). He's not a down the field threat, but he's good at sitting down in zones and snagging tough catches. What he's really good at is sealing edge in the running game and his overall an above average blocker coming into the NFL. Niklas would be a starter for the next 10 years.

Jean-Baptiste is the Seahawks type CB who had an outstanding last season after having a ho hum career through his first few years. At worst he is a sub package guy who could possibly play a bit of safety, and could be an answer matching up against TEs. Tough physical defender, fitting the mold of what Keim seems to really like for this team.
 

Krangodnzr

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Watkins failing to seven would constitute highway robbery. Best receiver to come out in years, I think he's Julio Jones, but a more natural receiver.

I think you're wrong about Matthews going ahead of Robinson, but I hope you're right. Robinson is going to be an elite LT while I think Matthews ends up being pretty good.
 

Iceman

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Watkins failing to seven would constitute highway robbery. Best receiver to come out in years, I think he's Julio Jones, but a more natural receiver.

I think you're wrong about Matthews going ahead of Robinson, but I hope you're right. Robinson is going to be an elite LT while I think Matthews ends up being pretty good.

Love the comparison of Watkins to Julio Jones. Watkins has the potential to put up some serious numbers and a rookie. His burst speed is unreal and is extremely talented. Excited to see him play next season! :thumbup:
 

Totally_Red

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I can't see the Cards passing on Pryor if he is there.

NFL.com grades Kony Ealy at 5.75 & Calvin Pryor 6.15.

CBSSports has Ealy ranked as 22nd best prospect & Pryor as 25th. Draftek has Ealy at #19 and Pryor at #29.

I could see the Cardinals passing on Ealy if they think he'd take a year to develop. BASK seem to prefer day one starters in the first round. Also he seems to be projected first as a 4-3 DE and secondly as a 3-4 rush linebacker.
 

Krangodnzr

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NFL.com grades Kony Ealy at 5.75 & Calvin Pryor 6.15.

CBSSports has Ealy ranked as 22nd best prospect & Pryor as 25th. Draftek has Ealy at #19 and Pryor at #29.

I could see the Cardinals passing on Ealy if they think he'd take a year to develop. BASK seem to prefer day one starters in the first round. Also he seems to be projected first as a 4-3 DE and secondly as a 3-4 rush linebacker.

It's also about fits; would you rather have Ealy and Tony Jefferson/Rashad Johnson starting, or Acho and Pryor starting? I'd rather have the former than the latter.

Also despite the rage of the "impact" safeties have, pass rushers are still much more valued. The Cardinals are in a perfect position to take a swing at a pass rusher, and unless they feel the safeties have much more upside than the pass rushers.

Why I'm starting to like Ealy, is he's more of the physical, speed to power kind of rusher that can be devastating in a 3-4. Ford is more skilled, more agile, but Ealy will be a brute force against the run and the pass.
 

Chopper0080

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The problem with projecting Ealy to the Cards is that he's a pass rusher, and those guys tend to go quickly, and we have perhaps four 3-4 defenses in the five spots ahead of us. I'd like to see it happen, but isn't it possible that Ealy goes in the top 15?

Absolutely, Ealy is a 15 - 25 player, especially since he could be a 4-3 DE as well. The arguement could be made that Barr is as likely to drop to the Cards as Ealy because Barr is more of a OLB than DE which could limit his suitors. The QBs and OTs will play a large part in which players fall in the draft. If Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater, Robinson, Matthews and Lewan all go top 13, then players like Ealy and Barr could fall. If not, then we probably are looking at Dee Ford, one of the safeties, or a trade back.

The draft is so tough to project because you are trying to guess what someone else values and what they need. I think Aaron Donald is a top 10 player in this draft, but I am not sure how many teams will look past his size. I think Hageman is a 2nd round guy, but his size makes me believe someone will take a shot on him in round 1. I think Mosley will go top 20, but the question is where.
 

WildBB

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Absolutely, Ealy is a 15 - 25 player, especially since he could be a 4-3 DE as well. The arguement could be made that Barr is as likely to drop to the Cards as Ealy because Barr is more of a OLB than DE which could limit his suitors. The QBs and OTs will play a large part in which players fall in the draft. If Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater, Robinson, Matthews and Lewan all go top 13, then players like Ealy and Barr could fall. If not, then we probably are looking at Dee Ford, one of the safeties, or a trade back.

The draft is so tough to project because you are trying to guess what someone else values and what they need. I think Aaron Donald is a top 10 player in this draft, but I am not sure how many teams will look past his size. I think Hageman is a 2nd round guy, but his size makes me believe someone will take a shot on him in round 1. I think Mosley will go top 20, but the question is where.

Do you think Barr is as good a pass rusher as Ford?

I think Dallas might have some sights set on Donald. And he's the type player Baltimore likes to jump on as well. I can't see him there @20 either right now.
 

Krangodnzr

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Do you think Barr is as good a pass rusher as Ford?

I think Dallas might have some sights set on Donald. And he's the type player Baltimore likes to jump on as well. I can't see him there @20 either right now.

Barr is a better pass rusher than Ford, based on the fact that he brings more to the table and is still a developing, yet already great pass rusher.

Anthony Barr is one of the top ten players in this draft.
 

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Very solid AND it could happen that way for our three picks. I think you did a very good job of placing the top 20 selections in that order. One of the most realistic mocks I have seen, (based on no trades).

Kony Ealy is a very real possibility for the Cards. He will, however, need to show that he can become comfortable in dropping back into coverage, (something he has not been able to do so far). His athleticism and strength will go far towards making him an effective edge rusher.
 

Chopper0080

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Do you think Barr is as good a pass rusher as Ford?

I think Dallas might have some sights set on Donald. And he's the type player Baltimore likes to jump on as well. I can't see him there @20 either right now.

I agree with Krang, I believe Barr offers more options as a pass rusher than Ford.
 
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kerouac9

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Very solid AND it could happen that way for our three picks. I think you did a very good job of placing the top 20 selections in that order. One of the most realistic mocks I have seen, (based on no trades).

Kony Ealy is a very real possibility for the Cards. He will, however, need to show that he can become comfortable in dropping back into coverage, (something he has not been able to do so far). His athleticism and strength will go far towards making him an effective edge rusher.

Can he look as comfortable dropping back into coverage as John Abraham looks? As comfortable as Lawrence Taylor looked dropping into coverage?

I think he can probably do that now. We're not talking the Dick LeBeau zone blitz defense where your OLBs have to cover because sometimes they're playing the safety role. We're talking the Parcells/Wade Phillips 3-4 defense where your OLB is coming 85% of the time or better, and it's more important that he's able to set the edge against the run than it is that he can cover the middle third of the field.
 

Chopper0080

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Can he look as comfortable dropping back into coverage as John Abraham looks? As comfortable as Lawrence Taylor looked dropping into coverage?

I think he can probably do that now. We're not talking the Dick LeBeau zone blitz defense where your OLBs have to cover because sometimes they're playing the safety role. We're talking the Parcells/Wade Phillips 3-4 defense where your OLB is coming 85% of the time or better, and it's more important that he's able to set the edge against the run than it is that he can cover the middle third of the field.

I agree with this. You are talking about a very small amount of snaps per game and I am sure we are willing to give up a little bit of coverage on those handful of snaps if we are getting an athletic and physical edge rusher. The last thing the Cardinals should be worried about when looking for an edge rusher is their coverage abilities.
 

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