Mitch
Crawled Through 5 FB Fields
When Steve Keim was promoted to GM in 2012, he indicated that his roster building philosophy revolves around a succession of 3 year plans.
If one looks at Keim's first three years as GM, his 3 year plan came to fruition, as in year 3 the Cardinals found themselves atop the NFC West and entered the Lombardi Trophy chase as the #2 seed in the NFC. As we know, the Cardinals' 2015 season ended on a 49-15 loss to the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship game.
In an April 10, 2015 article on the Cardinals' website, beat reporter Darren Urban wrote: There is a constantly evolving three-year plan, with analytics and the salary cap crunched to see what makes the most sense for each signing.
While last year's 7-8-1 disappointment may have seemed a non sequitur...Keim was already starting to flip the roster in drawing up his blueprint for his 2nd 3 year plan. The Cardinals did not make the playoffs in Keim's first year, but did in years 2 and 3. This is what Keim is aiming for again -- the playoffs in 2017 (with the hope of going as far as they can) and a run for the Lombardi Trophy in 2018.
Put in this context, the fact that the Cardinals had 20 UFAs this off-season (most of which they did not re-sign) coupled with Keim's passive aggressiveness in free agent market begins to make better sense. As does his intent to amass as many 2018 NFL Draft compensatory picks as he possibly could. It appears that the Cardinals will receive 4 compensatory picks...one in Round 3 and three in rounds 4-6.
While we are already seeing a vastly different roster than the one two years ago, next year's roster could be drastically different, as once again close to 20 current Cardinals will become free agents following this season, and some very important 2018 roster decisions will be made on the highest paid veterans:
QB Carson Palmer 2018 Cap: $20.6M 2018 Dead Money: $6.6M 2018 Cap Savings: $14M
S Tyrann Mathieu 2018 Cap: $14.9M 2018 Dead Money: $4.9M 2018 Cap Savings: $9.9M
T Jared Veldheer 2018 Cap: $10.3M 2018 Dead Money: $3.3M 2018 Cap Savings: $7.0M
G Mike Iupati 2018 Cap: $9.7M 2018 Dead Money: $3.4M 2018 Cap Savings: $6.3M
LB Deone Bucannon 2018 Cap: $8.7M 2018 Dead Money: $0 2018 Cap Savings: $8.7M
Whenever the cap savings is significantly more than the dead money, this is where GMs can make the decision to move on from veteran players if it makes the best sense for the team moving forward.
Interestingly, and clearly by design, this off-season Keim addressed each one of these positions:
QB Blaine Gabbert (for a one year prove it deal and the chance, if successful, to succeed Palmer in 2018)
S Budda Baker 2018 Cap: $1.6M
T Will Holden 2018 Cap: $622K
G Dorian Johnson 2018 Cap: $719K
LB Haason Reddick 2018 Cap: $3.1M
In looking ahead to 2018--the Cardinals--as is with Palmer, Mathieu, Velldheer, Iupati and Bucannon's salaries factored in---have a projected $29,581,448 in cap space.
When one looks at the positions -- here are the players signed beyond this year who would appear to be strong 2018 roster candidates:
RB: David Johnson ($889K); T.J. Logan ($605K)
WR: J.J. Nelson ($757K); Chad Williams ($758K)
TE: Germaine Gresham ($7.25M)
T: D.J. Humphries ($2.84M); Will Holden ($622K)
G: Evan Boehm ($757K); Dorian Johnson ($719K)
C: A.Q. Shipley ($2.1M); Cole Toner ($676K)
NT: Rodney Gunter ($832K);
DE: Robert Nkemdiche ($2.3M); Josh Mauro ($3.3M)
OLB: Chandler Jones ($15.5M); Markus Golden ($1.2M)
ILB: Haason Reddick ($3.1M);
CB: Patrick Peterson ($14.9M); Brandon Williams ($824K); Elie Bouka ($630K)
S: Budda Baker ($1.6M); Rudy Ford ($590K)
K: Phil Dawson ($3.5M)
If WR Larry Fitzgerald retires, his cap hit for 2018 is $4.85M.
I would expect Steve Keim to try to be aggressive at the trading deadline one way or another this year. If he thinks this 2017 team can make a legitimate run toward the Super Bowl, he will try to add talent at need positions. This is why he has been creating $16M in cap space. If the Cardinals continue to struggle, Keim will do all he can to get assets in return at the trading deadline for some of the veterans on the roster, including Larry Fitzgerald. The sentiment would be to give Larry his last chance at a ring, if it can't be in Arizona.
With a significant amount of cap space, the 2018 off-season should be wild and wooly for the Cardinals. This will be year 3...and if Keim believes Carson Palmer is the best chance to win a ring, he will stick with him. If Palmer falters this year or keeps contemplating retiirement, Keim will go all-out in 2018 in trying to sign or trade for a QB.
Regardless, next year's approach should look much more assertive and because of it, the 2018 roster is likely to look very different than the 2015 team that made a run for the Super Bowl. I would guess that fewer than 10 players from the Cardinals 2015 roster will be on the Cardinals' 2018 roster. That's a 3 year flip of 43+ players.
If one looks at Keim's first three years as GM, his 3 year plan came to fruition, as in year 3 the Cardinals found themselves atop the NFC West and entered the Lombardi Trophy chase as the #2 seed in the NFC. As we know, the Cardinals' 2015 season ended on a 49-15 loss to the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship game.
In an April 10, 2015 article on the Cardinals' website, beat reporter Darren Urban wrote: There is a constantly evolving three-year plan, with analytics and the salary cap crunched to see what makes the most sense for each signing.
While last year's 7-8-1 disappointment may have seemed a non sequitur...Keim was already starting to flip the roster in drawing up his blueprint for his 2nd 3 year plan. The Cardinals did not make the playoffs in Keim's first year, but did in years 2 and 3. This is what Keim is aiming for again -- the playoffs in 2017 (with the hope of going as far as they can) and a run for the Lombardi Trophy in 2018.
Put in this context, the fact that the Cardinals had 20 UFAs this off-season (most of which they did not re-sign) coupled with Keim's passive aggressiveness in free agent market begins to make better sense. As does his intent to amass as many 2018 NFL Draft compensatory picks as he possibly could. It appears that the Cardinals will receive 4 compensatory picks...one in Round 3 and three in rounds 4-6.
While we are already seeing a vastly different roster than the one two years ago, next year's roster could be drastically different, as once again close to 20 current Cardinals will become free agents following this season, and some very important 2018 roster decisions will be made on the highest paid veterans:
QB Carson Palmer 2018 Cap: $20.6M 2018 Dead Money: $6.6M 2018 Cap Savings: $14M
S Tyrann Mathieu 2018 Cap: $14.9M 2018 Dead Money: $4.9M 2018 Cap Savings: $9.9M
T Jared Veldheer 2018 Cap: $10.3M 2018 Dead Money: $3.3M 2018 Cap Savings: $7.0M
G Mike Iupati 2018 Cap: $9.7M 2018 Dead Money: $3.4M 2018 Cap Savings: $6.3M
LB Deone Bucannon 2018 Cap: $8.7M 2018 Dead Money: $0 2018 Cap Savings: $8.7M
Whenever the cap savings is significantly more than the dead money, this is where GMs can make the decision to move on from veteran players if it makes the best sense for the team moving forward.
Interestingly, and clearly by design, this off-season Keim addressed each one of these positions:
QB Blaine Gabbert (for a one year prove it deal and the chance, if successful, to succeed Palmer in 2018)
S Budda Baker 2018 Cap: $1.6M
T Will Holden 2018 Cap: $622K
G Dorian Johnson 2018 Cap: $719K
LB Haason Reddick 2018 Cap: $3.1M
In looking ahead to 2018--the Cardinals--as is with Palmer, Mathieu, Velldheer, Iupati and Bucannon's salaries factored in---have a projected $29,581,448 in cap space.
When one looks at the positions -- here are the players signed beyond this year who would appear to be strong 2018 roster candidates:
RB: David Johnson ($889K); T.J. Logan ($605K)
WR: J.J. Nelson ($757K); Chad Williams ($758K)
TE: Germaine Gresham ($7.25M)
T: D.J. Humphries ($2.84M); Will Holden ($622K)
G: Evan Boehm ($757K); Dorian Johnson ($719K)
C: A.Q. Shipley ($2.1M); Cole Toner ($676K)
NT: Rodney Gunter ($832K);
DE: Robert Nkemdiche ($2.3M); Josh Mauro ($3.3M)
OLB: Chandler Jones ($15.5M); Markus Golden ($1.2M)
ILB: Haason Reddick ($3.1M);
CB: Patrick Peterson ($14.9M); Brandon Williams ($824K); Elie Bouka ($630K)
S: Budda Baker ($1.6M); Rudy Ford ($590K)
K: Phil Dawson ($3.5M)
If WR Larry Fitzgerald retires, his cap hit for 2018 is $4.85M.
I would expect Steve Keim to try to be aggressive at the trading deadline one way or another this year. If he thinks this 2017 team can make a legitimate run toward the Super Bowl, he will try to add talent at need positions. This is why he has been creating $16M in cap space. If the Cardinals continue to struggle, Keim will do all he can to get assets in return at the trading deadline for some of the veterans on the roster, including Larry Fitzgerald. The sentiment would be to give Larry his last chance at a ring, if it can't be in Arizona.
With a significant amount of cap space, the 2018 off-season should be wild and wooly for the Cardinals. This will be year 3...and if Keim believes Carson Palmer is the best chance to win a ring, he will stick with him. If Palmer falters this year or keeps contemplating retiirement, Keim will go all-out in 2018 in trying to sign or trade for a QB.
Regardless, next year's approach should look much more assertive and because of it, the 2018 roster is likely to look very different than the 2015 team that made a run for the Super Bowl. I would guess that fewer than 10 players from the Cardinals 2015 roster will be on the Cardinals' 2018 roster. That's a 3 year flip of 43+ players.
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